A Comparative Assessment of Vehicle Technologies and Fuels: Diesel, CNG or Hybrid. Summary. Health Impacts of Air Pollution
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- Alan Richards
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1 A Comparative Assessment of Vehicle Technologies and Fuels: Diesel, CNG or Hybrid CAI Latin America Lima, Peru May, 23 Summary Why We Are Interested Diesel Pro & Con CNG Pro & Con Hybrid Pro & Con Conclusions What pollutants are of concern? Greenhouse Gases - CO2, methane Haze Particles (PM1/PM2.5) (NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia) Carbon monoxide (CO) Ozone (ROG + NOx) Toxics - Diesel particles -Benzene - Chromium - Asbestos Health Impacts of Air Pollution Premature Deaths Cancer Developmental Effects Hospitalization Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis
2 Health Effects Different Pollutants have Different Effects Carbon Monoxide - circulatory system, heart Ozone - respiratory system, lung Nitrogen Dioxide respiratory system PM - lung, potential effects on heart Diesel, Air Toxics - cancer, respiratory effects There are potential effects of the Mixture Some Populations more sensitive than others elderly people with heart and lung disease Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosphere Greenhouse Gas Effect Some infrared radiation is absorbed and re-emitted in all directions by GHG The effect is to warm Earth GHGs Most radiation is absorbed by the Earth and makes it warm 7% radiation passes through the clear atmosphere Earth and atmosphere reflect 3% Global Warming Concerns Share of worldwide C2 emissions from the combustion of fuel, by sector IPCC "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence" IPCC - 2 "there has been a discernible human influence on global climate" Residential 8% Transport 26% Commercial and other 6% Production of Energy 41% Manufacturing and Construction 19% Source: IEA 2a.
3 Elements of a comprehensive vehicle pollution control strategy Fuel Consumption: Diesel Vs. Gasoline Mercedes E32 Appropriate maintentance Clean fuels Clean vehicle technology Traffic and demand managment MPG 4 3 Fuel Economy Gasoline Diesel % 25.7 Gallons Thousands 5 4 Fuel Consumption Over 1, Miles 3893 Saves 1 Gallons To reduce individual vehicle emissions To influence vehicle use Source: Dr. Rudolf W. Thom January 23, SIAT 23 However.. Diesel Particulate Matter
4 Increased Risk of Premature Mortality Due To 1µg/m 3 PM 2.5 Cancer Studies in Railroad Workers HEI,1995 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % All Causes Pulmonary Lung Cancer JAMA, March 22 Health Impacts of Diesel in California Comparison of PM1, PM2.5, and Ultrafine PM Impacts Of Diesel PM 2.5 Deaths 2,9 Chronic Bronchitis 2,59 PM1 (1 µm) PM2.5 (2.5 µm) PM2.5 (2.5 µm) Ultrafine PM (.1 µm) Hospital Admissions 2,79 Lower Lung Symptoms 95,4 Loss of Days Work 621, Annual Human Hair (6 µm diameter) PM1 (1 µm) Relative size of particles
5 Typical engine exhaust mass and number weighted size distributions shown with alveolar deposition Vehicles Are A Major Source of Ultrafine Particles Normalized Concentration, dc/c total/dlogdp Nanoparticles Dp < 5 nm Nuclei Mode 1 Fine Particles.9 Ultrafine Particles.8 Dp < 1 nm PM1 Dp < 1 µm.7 Fractional deposition of particle.6 with density of 1 g/um Accumulation Coarse Mode Mode.1 Alveolar Deposition Fraction Diameter (µm) Weighting Number Weighting Alveolar Fraction Mass Deposition Comparison of Particle Emissions from SMPS.7: All Vehicles and Fuels - 5kph 1.E+13 Conventional Diesels 1.E+12 A PM Solution Exists! log scale [Particles/km] 1.E+11 1.E+1 1.E+9 1.E+8 Conventional Diesel Direct Injection Gasoline G-DI Gasoline and LPG MPI and LPG Gasoline 1.E+7 Trap Equipped Diesels 1.E Electrical Mobility Diameter/nm PSA s DPF System for Diesel Passenger Cars
6 2 Comparison of the Cancerogenous Potential of Otto- and Diesel Passenger Cars in Urban Traffic.6 Comparison of NOx Emission Type Approval Data from Current Passenger Car Types Otto-D4 Otto-EURO 4 Diesel-D3 Diesel-EURO 3 18 Unit risk x Emission m³/km Comparison of new vehicles today Otto PC Diesel PC g/km.5 EURO III Diesel.4.3 EURO IV Diesel.2 2 ECE R 15/4 EURO II EURO III EURO IV Diesel PC with particulate trap Source: FhG-ITA EURO IV Otto Curb Weight kg In Germany, Diesels Actually 7 times More NOx Than Otto Emission Performance Light-duty Diesels Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Is Also Necessary Model NOx PM g/mile CA VW 1.9 l Jetta.7.53 US Mercedes 3. l.8.8 E3 1 EU Peugeot Toyota Avensis Prototype Low mileage PPM US US 26 EU 2 EU 25 EU 29 Denmark Sweden Class 1 Germany 23 Japan Japan 24 Japan 25-7 Hong Kong
7 engine CWstprt 21 Cummins Westport C Gas Plus chassis New Flyer 4 passenger after-treatment OEM Catalyst pipeline fuel meeting fuel CARB spec's TEST BUS (CWstprt CNG w/oxicat) Average NO X and PM Emissions - CBD NOx Emissions, g/mile 45 Tunnel Background Conventional Diesel Diesel w/crt Diesel w/oxicat (ECD-1) (ECD-1) 25 2 CNG CNG w/oxicat Total PM Emissions, g/mile
8 Hybrid Vehicle Commercialization Honda Insight Two-seater 1999 Toyota Prius Small car 2 Honda Civic Small car 22 Ford Escape Small SUV 23 Dodge Durango Large SUV 23 GM Sierra Large Pickup 24 GM Medium SUV 24 Toyota Minivan? Hybrid Vehicles Developed and Sold in Japan Source: JEVA, 22 Type PC Truck Bus Size Name Maker Range Battery Motor/System Compact Prius Toyota 31 km/l Ni-MH AC Synch/ P/S Insight(MT) Honda 35 Ni-MH AC Synch/ P Insight(AT) Honda 32 Ni-MH AC Synch/ P CIVIC-H Honda 29.5 Ni-MH AC Synch/ P Medium (Tino-H) Nissan 2 Li-ion AC Synch/ P Estima-H Toyota 18 Ni-MH AC Synch/ P/S Crown(Mild) Toyota 15 Lead AC Synch/ P (3.5 t) Ranger Hino 8 (6km/h) Lead AC Induct/ P Micro Coaster Toyota 5.3 Lead AC Induct/ S Transit Blue Ribbon city Hino 3% Ni-MH AC Induct/ P Note: Micro hybrid PCs and HD hybrid trucks are being developed by Japanese automakers NEDO Hybrid Buses NEDO Hybrid Trucks Advanced Clean Energy Buses with Hybrid Systems (NEDO) Advanced Clean Energy Trucks with Hybrid Systems (NEDO)
9 Highest-Mileage Vehicles in U.S. (23) Vehicle Vehicle Manual Transmission Energy source Automatic Transmission Energy source Avg. mpg Avg. mpg CO2 (g- C/km) CO2 (g-c/km) CO2 (g-c/km) trap+filter Honda Insight Gas/electric Honda Civic Gas/electric VW Golf, Diesel Jetta Honda Civic Gas Toyota Echo Gas CO2 (g-c/km) trap+filter Honda Insight Gas/electric Toyota Prius Gas/electric Honda Civic Gas/electric VW Golf, Jetta Diesel Gasoline/electric hybrids emit less CO 2 than the best diesel vehicles in U.S. Mark Jacobson, Haagen Smit 23 Fuel Economy km/l D-1 L Car G: Gasoline (VW) D: Diesel H: Hybrid DH-ES 3 (Toyota) US PNGV EU 3 L Car GH-Insight (Honda) GH-WFV D-Lupo GH-Prius (Toyota) (Waseda Univ. (VW) GH-CIVIC (Honda) 12 gco2/km (EU) 14 gco2/km (EU) GH-Estima (Toyota) L/1 km 5 1, 1,5 2, Vehicle Weight kg Comparison of Fuel Economy for Diesel and Hybrid Passenger Cars Environmental Impact Diesel Vehicle Gasoline V Aftertreatment Fuel reformulation Hybridization Hybridization H2FCV (baseline) Relative Overall Efficiency Comparison of Various EFVs Economic Challenges: LDD vs Gasoline HEV Fuel economy improvement Strong gasoline HEV: 4-5% Diesel: 35-4% Cost 1 (incremental) Short Term Long Term Strong HEV: $25 $15 Diesel 2 : $235 $19 1 Compact car 2 Includes after-treatment
10 Conclusions Diesel, CNG & Hybrids Each Have High Potential Stringent Performance Standards Necessary To Obtain Full Potential Major Challenges Diesel PM, NOx CNG Aldehydes, Infrastructure Hybrids - Cost
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