Research & Forecast Report Poland February Year-End Review

Transcription

1 Research & Forecast Report Poland February Year-End Review

2 Contents Summary Prognosis Economy... 4 Investment... 5 Land... 7 Office... 9 Industrial Retail Hotels Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

3 Summary 2014 > Economy the GDP growth rate in 2014 was 3.3%, as assumed. By Monika Rajska Wolińska Managing Partner Poland 2014 was definitely an exceptional year in Poland in terms of the inflow of new investors. Total value of closed transactions exceeded EUR 3.1 bn. The market in Poland is becoming more and more liquid and the increasing number of investors are searching for various types of projects. They are looking for real estate not only in Warsaw, but also in other regional cities. Apart from office buildings, shopping centres and warehouse projects enjoy popularity. Also, several big portfolio transactions were concluded in Several dozen of transactions were closed in Poland, whereas the whole CEE region witnessed 120 investment deals out of which ca. 30% were brokered by Colliers International. Monika Rajska Wolińska > Investment total value of closed transactions in 2014 exceeded EUR 3.1 bn. > Land low interest rates and the increased popularity of the apartments sector encouraged further purchases of land. > Office tenants leased over 1 mln m 2. Thanks to new supply of 580,000 m 2, total stock amounted to 6,9 mln m 2. > Industrial in 2014, we witnessed a record high level of new supply. Projects with total space exceeding 1 mln m 2 were delivered to the Polish market. > Retail we observed an increase in developers interest in eastern Poland, where the biggest projects of 2014 were delivered. > Hotels in 2014, 151 licensed hotels were delivered to the Polish market. These new facilities provided 11,975 beds in 6,025 rooms. Prognosis 2015 > Economy analysts predict that the slowdown in GDP in Q1 2015, at a level below 3.3% y-o-y, will be temporary. > Investment 2015 investment volume is expected to at least match the 2014 volumes given the ever-increasing interest in the Polish market, subject to the availability of product for sale. > Land it is predicted that 2015 will be characterized by a further high level of purchases of land for residential and industrial markets. > Office new supply planned for delivery in 2015 will exceed 700,000 m 2 ; a further growth in the vacancy rate is expected. > Industrial 685,500 m 2 remain under construction, of which ca. 70% have already been leased. > Retail we are observing a return of the major agglomerations. It is estimated that in 2015 the increase of supply will be higher than in the past year. > Hotels new technologies will spread quickly in the hotel business. 3 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

4 Economy Summary 2014 > According to estimates by BZ WBK analysts, in H a continuation of the economic recovery from the previous year was observed. However, in H a slowdown started, which was caused by the conflict in Ukraine and the deteriorating economic situation in the Euro zone. > Analysts prognosis concerning the inflation rate show that it is likely that deflation will remain until the middle of the year and growth in the following months, until it reaches around 1% in December. GDP growth rate (%) > Contrary to experts prognosis, in 2014 there was an easing of monetary policy, as evidenced by the Monetary Policy Council, which lowered the reference rate in October to 2%. > The GDP growth rate in 2014 was 3.3%, as assumed. > In Q4, inflation continued to fall. In December, deflation reached -1% y-o-y. > According to data published by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, the unemployment rate in 2014 was 11.5% (0.1 p.p. more than the rate noted in November). However, compared to the same period in 2013, the unemployment rate decreased by around 2 p.p., based on Central Statistical Office, BZ WBK Unemployment rate and inflation (%) > In the third week of January 2015, the Central Bank of Switzerland reduced the interest rate to -0.75% and stopped defending the rate of exchange. Prognosis 2015 > Analysts predict that the slowdown in GDP at the beginning of 2015, remaining at a level below 3.3% y-o-y, will be temporary. > According to the communication of the Monetary Policy Council published at the beginning of January 2015, the reference rate remains unchanged; however, the council does not rule out the possibility of further reducing the rate if the deflation period continues. > In 2015, a decline in the unemployment rate is predicted; however, experts point out that it will remain below 10%., based on Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Labour and Social Policy 4 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

5 Investment Key investment figures Investment volume Prime yields Prime office yields Prime retail yields Prime industrial yields Summary 2014 EUR 3.1 billion sub-6.00% sub-6.00% sub-7.25% > Total value of closed transactions in 2014 exceeded EUR 3.1 bn. > Poland accounted for approx. 30% of overall investment volume in the CEE region and has established itself as a market leader. > Diversity of capital deployed in Poland has increased and there has been growing competition for prime product, which has put upward pressure on pricing. Yields > Prime logistics yields now are in the range of 7% for core assets, and top pricing remains to be driven by the lease length. Assets with a shorter residual lease term have become increasingly liquid, as the logistics market recorded its best-ever performance in terms of market share, however continue to trade at a discount. Volumes > Total investment volume almost matched previous year s performance, despite a decreasing volume of real estate product for sale. > The market recorded in excess of 60 investment transactions, including a number of portfolio sales in all major asset classes. > Only 40% of the total value is attributable to Warsaw, with the regional cities accounting for the balance a sign of an ever-growing maturity and liquidity of the regional markets. Prime (net initial) yields > Pricing for core assets (particularly in the office and logistics asset classes) continues to be primarily driven by the residual lease term with a number of benchmark yields set throughout the year, both in Warsaw and beyond. > Prime office yields for Warsaw are now below 6.00% for CBD Core and 7.5 8% for Warsaw Mokotów, amid a relative shortage of institutional product for sale, which has driven pricing and resulted in forward purchase transactions returning to the market as investors seek to secure product at an earlier stage. > Retail yields range from sub-6% in Warsaw and major regional cities for dominant, trophy-type assets, to ca. 8.5% for modern shopping centers in secondary cities. 5 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

6 Volumes by sector > 2014 was dominated by the office segment, which accounted for EUR 1.9 bn in closed transactions, translating into a 59% market share. > The above was driven both by major office transactions in Warsaw (EUR 1.34 bn), but also the highest-ever investment activity in regional cities (EUR 0.45 bn) with Kraków and Wrocław being the stand-out performers. > The logistics and industrial market also enjoyed its bestever performance with a total value of EUR 740 mln in closed deals and a 22% market share. more value-add and core-plus investors will join the core buyers in searching the Polish market for acquisitions. > We expect that the growing diversification of the pool of investors and inflow of capital from China, Middle East, Canada anad Australia, as well as gradual emergence of domestic players, will continue to be a positive trend in the market and drive pricing. > We expect that regional investment markets will continue to grow in terms of volume and diversity of purchasers. Investment volume > Due to a limited number of shopping centers for sale, the retail asset class had a relatively quiet year in terms of volume at EUR 0.56 bn (down from EUR 1.5 bn in 2013). Deals specifics and stories > Most notable single-asset transactions included the sales of Rondo 1 by Blackrock to Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management for a reported EUR 300 mln, Plac Unii by BBI/Liebrecht & Wood to Invesco for a reported EUR 225 mln, Poznań City Center by Trigranit to a JV between Resolution Property / ECE European Prime Shopping Centre Fund for a reported EUR 225 mln, Metropolitan by Aberdeen to Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management for a reported EUR 190 mln, Lipowy Office Park by CA Immo to WP Carey for EUR 108 mln and the portfolio comprising Łopuszańska Business Park, T-Mobile Office Park and Katowice Business Point for EUR 190 mln. Investment volume by sector > The market recorded 11 transactions above EUR 100 mln, including major logistics portfolio acquisitions by Blackstone, PZU and Segro and office purchases (Starwood). > New investors such as Hillwood, Starwood, Reino Partners and Vienna Insurance Group have confirmed their interest in Poland by a number of high-profile closings both in Warsaw and regional cities, whereas DAWM, WP Carey, Griffin, Invesco, Prologis and Hines, amongst others, continued their acquisition strategy. Prognosis 2015 > 2015 investment volume is expected to at least match the 2014 volumes given the ever-increasing interest in the Polish market, subject to the availability of product for sale. > Poland willl continue to maintain its perception as an established market with a further growth in liquidity as 6 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

7 Land Summary 2014 > 2014 proved to be stable for the development sector. Interest rates were lowered by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which had a positive effect on the situation. The government also introduced a new financial support program called Apartments for Youth (MdM), designed to support the purchase of flats. Additionally, the Bank Supervision Commission issued an updated S Recommendation, which allows for 5% own contribution to mortgage loan till the end of > Despite the relatively high supply, the demand for land sites has not been fully satisfied, mainly because of the lack of plots fulfilling the requirements of developers. The main reasons for which some properties were not subject to sale was primarily an unfavourable location and legal conditions preventing its effective development. > Low interest rates and the increased popularity of the apartments sector encouraged further purchases of land. Developers willingly analysed residential projects. Overall, funds divided their investments by 75% for residential, 15% for office and retail and up to 10% for industrial investment sites. > Warsaw still accounted for about 80% of the land purchased for office and residential demand but also in the regional markets a clear revival was observed. The volume of transactions in 2014 reached the highest value since 2006 and stood at about PLN 1.85 bn. at an unchanged level and it seems that in the coming months prices will stay stable for both shopping centre and retail park sites. > It is worth noticing that investors were willing to pay high prices for building plots with facilities in good technical condition, destined subsequently for demolition, for both office and residential projects. > In 2014 a few significant transactions were noted, where the level of equity involved was between PLN mln and planned transactions recognized by Colliers indicate that the record has not yet been reached. > The largest purchases were recorded only in Warsaw, where transaction prices reached the level of PLN 200 mln for the project, while in Wroclaw and Krakow the amounts were in the range of PLN mln. > In 2014, high activity among state-owned enterprises, the Military Property Agency, the Agricultural Market Agency and other local government units was observed. > Low availability of development land in the main areas recognized by investors, force more aggressive negotiations and shorten the transaction process. Investors were imposed to reduce the duration of negotiations, assuming the average period for the transaction in the range of 3-4 months. > Despite the ongoing stabilisation in residential prices in 2014, the land market has seen rapid interest by increasing purchases and higher prices of investment in land for residential projects. Land prices for office developments slightly decreased in 2014.The most noticeable decreases were in Katowice by 3% and Wrocław by 2%, while in the Tricity by 1%, thereby stabilising the price situation of land in the region. Prices of plots for retail space remained 7 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

8 Prognosis 2015 > It is predicted that 2015 will be characterized by a further high level of purchases of land for residential and industrial markets, mainly in Warsaw, Wrocław, Tricity and Krakow and secondly in Poznań and Łódz. However, interest in land for office investments will be much smaller. > When it comes to residential projects, investors are looking for markets where residential prices, leasing conditions and demand guarantee a fast return on equity. The increase in prices and a willingness to carry out cash deals will be recorded with the investment projects, which will not be risky and will not impose additional costs on investors. > Regarding land for retail projects, 2015, similar to the previous year, will not be easy for shopping centre developers. Launching new investments in a situation of high competition and selective demand for retail space will be the ongoing challenge for investors. It is predicted that the supply will be 30% higher in 2015 than in the previous year, mainly due to the expected entrance of larger shopping centers to the polish market. We expect the continuation of such trends as the expansion, modernization and re-commercialization of existing retail schemes, as well as returning to purchase land for retail projects, which will be observed mainly in large cities. Prices for the office development sites (EUR/m 2 GLA) CITY / REGION MIN. MAX. AVERAGE Warsaw: City Centre Warsaw: Outside the City Centre Kraków Poznań Upper Silesia Tricity Wrocław Prices for the residential development site (EUR/m 2 usable area) CITY / REGION MIN. MAX. AVERAGE Warsaw: City Centre Warsaw: Outside the City Centre Kraków Łódź Poznań Upper Silesia Tricity Wrocław > Considering the currently realised and planned expenditures on real estate properties in H1 2015, it can be assumed that by the end of 2015 there is a chance for a significant exceedance of the level of transactions value from previous year. 8 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

9 Office Summary 2014 > At the end of December 2014, the total office stock in the nine major Polish markets reached 6,9 million m 2. > During the year, developers completed over 580,000 m 2 of office space. Two thirds of the new supply were delivered in Warsaw (280,000 m 2 ) and Kraków (111,000 m 2 ). > Year 2014 brought record in terms of the amount of leased space. Gross demand registered from the first to the fourth quarter exceeded 1 million m 2. Net absorption was estimated at a level of 482,500 m 2. Pre-let deals constituted 18.3% of transaction volumes. > The vacancy rate for all major Polish office markets recorded a slight growth to the level of 12.4% (as compared to 11.9% at the end of 2013). > Rental rates for office space in Warsaw ranged from EUR 12 to EUR 24 m 2 /per month, while in major regional markets from EUR 11.5 to EUR 15.5/m 2 per month. Office market in major Polish cities > Warsaw at the end of Q4 2014, the supply of office space stood at 4.39 million m 2. During the analysed period, 280,000 m 2 of new office space was delivered to the market. The largest increase in stock was recorded in the South West zone (88,200 m 2 ), City Centre-Fringe (64,700 m 2 ) and in the North zone (53,000 m 2 ). In 2014, the next office projects including Business Garden, Biura Koszyki, Astoria, Wołoska 24 and KróLEWska entered the construction phase. At the end of December over 700,000 m 2 were under construction. Demand and absorption in Warsaw (m 2 ) Key office figures (Q4 2014) CITY SUPPLY (m 2 ) VACANCY RATE Warsaw 4,391, % Kraków 617, % Wrocław 516, % Tricity 396, % Poznań 285, % Katowice 280, % Łódź 241,500 11% Szczecin 99, % Lublin 98, % *office space for lease, excluding owner-occupied properties Gross demand for office space recorded in 2014 surpassed 612,000 m 2, which was a slight decrease as compared to the same period of 2013 (-3% y-o-y). A positive aspect observed in 2014 was an increase in the amount of absorbed space, which accounted for 179,000 m 2 9 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

10 (+14% y-o-y). The highest transaction volume was recorded in the Upper South (174,000 m 2 ), South West (138,000 m 2 ) and City Centre-Fringe (105,000 m 2 ). In comparison to the end of December 2013, the vacancy rate increased by 1.5 p.p. and stood at 13.3%. The vacancy rate in two central zones reached 15.2%, while in non-central locations the indicator grew to 12.4%. Rents for office space in the city center varied from EUR 18 to EUR 24/m 2 per month, while outside the city center rents ranged from EUR 12 to EUR 16/m 2 per month. Selected lease transactions in Warsaw in 2014 TENANT AREA (m 2 ) BUILDING Raiffeisen Bank 19,500 Prime Corporate Center Nokia Siemens Networks 5,300 Horizon Plaza GTECH 4,700 Brama Zachodnia Altkom 4,300 Warsaw Trade Tower Provident 4,000 Gdański Business Center CityFit 2,400 Spektrum Tower > Kraków in 2014, Kraków recorded the largest increase in office stock since the beginning of the market. During the four quarters of 2014, twelve office projects totaling 111,000 m 2 were delivered to the market. The largest new projects included Kapelanka 42 (29,900 m 2 ), Avia (14,000 m 2 ) and Enterprise Park C (13,500 m 2 ). Kraków boasts strong developers activity as nearly 140,000 m 2 of office space is still under construction. Demand noted between Q1 and Q4 stood at 117,200 m 2. Pre-let deals constituted 30% of registered volume. The vacancy rate reached 5.6%, which translated into 34,000 m 2 of vacant space. > Wrocław at the end of December 2014, the existing supply amounted to 516,000 m 2. During the year, nine office buildings totaling 56,000 m 2 were completed. The next 162,000 m 2 are under construction, which is the highest result among the major regional markets. In 2014, the total transaction volume exceeded 94,700 m 2. During the period, several significant lease agreements were concluded, including two deals by HP (pre-let of 16,400 m 2 in Dominikański and the renegotiation of 10,600 m 2 in Renoma) and Nokia Networks (pre-let, 14,000 m 2, West Gate). The vacancy rate stood at 11.1% (against 12.9% in Q4 2013). > Tricity thanks to new supply at a level of 46,700 m 2 the total office stock in Tricity grew to 397,000 m 2. Amongst the newly completed investments the largest were Neptun Office Centre (15,300 m 2 ), Olivia Four (14,700 m 2 ) and the third building within the BPH Office Park complex (7,000 m 2 ). 95,000 m 2 of office space is currently under construction, 73,000 m 2 of which in Gdańsk. Gross demand for office space recorded during the past twelve months reached 65,600 m 2 (+54.5% y-o-y). The share of new deals (including owner-occupied space) amounted to 80%. The vacancy rate for the whole agglomeration stood at 12.6% at the end of 2014 (against 13.4% at the end of 2013). > Poznań at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014, the existing supply reached 285,200 m 2. During the analysed period, four properties totaling 19,300 m 2 were built. 76,700 m 2 of office space is currently under construction. More than a half of this space will be delivered to the market within the first phase of the Business Garden complex (41,000 m 2 ). Demand registered in 2014 amounted to 18,800 m 2, which was a drop by a half as compared to the same period of New deals made up 69% of all concluded lease agreements. In comparison to the fourth quarter of 2013, the vacancy rate stood at a relatively stable level and reached 14.3%. Selected lease transactions in regional markets concluded in 2014 TENANT AREA (m 2 ) BUILDING UPC 6,500 Żabka 4,500 SABMiller 4,400 Compuware 3,100 Amway 3,000 Phoenix Contact 2,700 Green Park Katowice Andersia Business Center Poznań Kapelanka 42 Kraków Alchemia Tricity KBP 800 Kraków Wrocławski Park Biznesu Wrocław > Łódź in 2014, the Łódź office market recorded marginal growth. During the period only one office building was completed Synergia C of 2,500 m 2. As a result, the total stock stood at 241,500 m 2 at the end of December Currently 30,000 m 2 of office space for lease is under construction. Tenants activity reached a record level of 45,700 m 2, mainly due to the lease agreement concluded by Infosys in the Green Horizon complex (renegotiation, 21,000 m 2 ). Due to limited new supply, the vacancy rate decreased by 5.5 p.p. to the level of 11%. > Katowice 2014 was characterized by high developers activity. Seven projects totaling 55,800 m 2 were completed, which was twice as much as in Currently, 43,000 m 2 of office space is under construction. Gross 10 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

11 demand amounted to 43,900 m 2, 18% of which was leased in buildings under construction. Due to the high level of new supply delivered in Q4, the vacancy rate increased to 13.2% at the end of December. > Szczecin at the end of the year, the total supply reached 99,200 m 2. In 2014, one office building was delivered to the market (Piastów Office Center II, 6,400 m 2 ). As much as 17,200 m 2 of office space is under construction, scheduled for delivery in Tenants activity registered between the first and the fourth quarter accounted for 17,700 m 2. New deals constituted 92% of total demand, while renewals and renegotiations made up 8%. The vacancy rate decreased during the year and reached 15.8% at the end of December. > Lublin is the smallest of the major Polish regional markets. At the end of the 2014, the supply of modern office space accounted for 98,300 m 2. Four buildings totaling 8,800 m 2 were completed during the analysed period, all delivered by local developers. Demand recorded in 2014 amounted to 6,400 m 2. Tenants concluded mainly new agreements (approx. 97%). The vacancy rate stood at the level of 13.5%. Net absorption in regional markets in 2014 (m 2 ) Base rents in main regional markets (EUR/m 2 per month) Prognosis 2015 > Currently, 1.3 mln m 2 of modern office space is under construction, of which 700,000 m 2 in Warsaw. > New supply planned for delivery in this year is estimated at 700,000 m 2. The Warsaw office market will grow by 330,000 m 2. Amongst regional cities the biggest growth will be recorded in Kraków (88,000 m 2 ) and Wrocław (84,000 m 2 ). > In 2015, the overall vacancy rate is anticipated to trend upward. Due to increasing number of new investments, the rise in the vacancy rate will particularly concern older B-class properties. > In the upcoming year, base rents are not expected to weaken as much as in Property owners will probably offer more favorable packages of incentives (such as fit-out budget) instead of another rent reduction. 11 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

12 Industrial Summary 2015 > In 2014, we witnessed the rapid development of the Polish industrial market. In the period under analysis, projects with total space exceeding 1 million m 2 were delivered to the market. This constitutes a record result, much higher than new supply noted in 2013, when 400,000 m 2 were completed in all Polish industrial markets. > At present, the supply of modern industrial space in major Polish markets totals over 8.8 million m 2. Total supply and vacancy rates > Transaction volumes also reached a relatively high level. During the past 12 months, leasing agreements for over 2.5 million m 2 were signed, of which 956,000 m 2 were conducted in Q4. 71% of demand was made up of new deals, compared with 29% for renewals. > A further 252,000 m 2 of industrial space were leased in 2014 within short-term agreements, which are not included in general statistics. > The vacancy rate decreased by 5 p.p. compared with 2013 and stood at 5.5% at the end of December > Rental rates in most industrial markets in Poland remained at a stable level during the past 12 months. > In the course of the year, we witnessed considerable interest among investors in warehouse projects. The investment transaction volume in the Polish industrial sector exceeded EUR 700 million in Situation in the main industrial markets in Poland > Warsaw at the end of December 2014, the total supply in the three Warsaw zones reached 2.76 million m 2. In the past year, five projects with space totaling ca. 38,000 m 2 were completed, of which 7,000 m 2 were in Warsaw zone I and 31,000 m 2 in Warsaw zone II. Another 51,000 m 2 remain under construction: 14,000 m 2 in Warsaw zone I and 37,000 m 2 in Warsaw zone II. At the end of 2014, 7.1% of existing industrial space remained unleased, compared with 14% recorded one year earlier. The vacancy rate in Warsaw zones I, II and III stood at 10.7%, 6.2% and 6.5% respectively. In the period under analysis, 227 leasing agreements were signed for 863,000 m 2, of which over half concerned transactions concluded in Warsaw zone II (488,000 m 2 ). The level of demand in Warsaw zone II was the highest among all analysed industrial markets. Renegotiations constituted ca. 39% of the transaction volume in the three Warsaw zones. 12 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

13 > Upper Silesia the supply in the second-largest Polish industrial market increased by ca. 89,000 m 2 in the past 12 months. As a result, the market offers over 1.56 million m 2 of modern industrial space. Five projects totalling 122,400 m 2 remain under construction. The vacancy rate declined slightly during the past 12 months, from 9.8% at the end of 2013 to 8.5% recorded in December In the analysed period, demand for industrial space reached 373,000 m 2, leased within 56 agreements. Renegotiations constituted 45% of tenants activity. > Central Poland (the Łódź region) during the past four quarters, 120,600 m 2 of modern industrial space were delivered to the market. Consequently, the current supply in the region stands at 1.13 million m 2. 45,500 m 2 remain under construction, of which 65% have been already leased. At the end of December 2014, 3.9% of existing stock remained unleased. Ca. 273,000 m 2 were leased in the period under analysis. The demand was dominated by new agreements, which constituted 82% of transaction volume, compared with 18% for renewals. > Poznań ca. 269,000 m 2 of modern industrial space were completed in the past year, of which over half were delivered in Q3 (54%). Major developments completed during the year included a warehouse for Amazon (123,000 m 2 ) and two further phases of Centrum Logistyczno - Inwestycyjne Poznań totaling 73,000 m 2. The Poznań market is characterised by the largest amount of space under construction among analysed markets. At present, there are nine projects under construction, totalling 215,000 m 2. The vacancy rate dropped by 4 p.p. in comparison with December 2013 and stood at 0.6% at the end of In 2014, tenants signed agreements for 383,000 m 2, which was the second-largest result after Warsaw zone II. 26% of demand was made up of agreements for BTS projects. > Wrocław the market saw the highest increase in demand among the markets under analysis in During the past year, seven projects totalling 348,800 m 2 were completed in the Wrocław market. Major completions included two facilities built for Amazon (123,000 m 2 and 123,500 m 2 ) and further stages of Prologis Park Wrocław V with a total area of 55,500 m 2. Total supply stood at 1.18 million m 2 in December Two projects totalling 29,300 m 2 remain under construction. A considerable decrease in the vacancy rate was observed in the period under analysis, from 10.5% in December 2013 to 2% at the end of Demand for industrial space in 2014 reached 353,200 m 2, leased within 69 agreements. > Tricity the present stock of modern industrial space stands at ca. 258,000 m 2, which is 52,000 m 2 more than a year ago. Four projects were completed in the analysed period: two stages of Panattoni Park Gdańsk, another building in Centrum Logistyczne Kowale III and a warehouse of Zarząd Morskiego Portu Gdynia. 66,400 m 2 remain under construction, within three projects. At the end of December 2014, the vacancy rate in the Tricity market reached 4.8%. In the past year, 24 transactions for ca. 89,000 m 2 were concluded. > Kraków at the end of 2014, the total supply of industrial space exceeded 171,000 m 2, compared with 160,000 m 2 noted at the end of the previous year. The increase in supply was a result of the completion of another phase of Goodman Kraków Airport Logistics Center (11,400 m 2 ). Two projects totalling 23,900 m 2 remain under construction. During the past 12 months the vacancy rate dropped from 9.7% by ca. 4 p.p. At the end of December 2014, 5.8% of the existing space remained unleased. The demand in the past 4 quarters stood at 54,500 m 2, which is almost three times higher than the figure from Selected lease transactions in 2014 TENANT PROJECT AREA (m 2 ) TYPE OF DEAL Czerwona Torebka MLP Poznań Zachód 53,800 BTS ID Logistics P3 park Mszczonów 46,200 BTS GE Panattoni Bielsko-Biała 45,700 BTS Market-Detal Goodman Konin 39,700 BTS Piotr i Paweł MLP Teresin 37,600 BTS Rhenus CLIP 30,800 New transaction Hi Logistic Prologis Park Wrocław V 20,600 New transaction L'Oreal Prologis Park Błonie II 19,500 Renegotiation CEVA P3 park Poznań 13,500 New transaction Effective rental rates (EUR/m²/month) EFFECTIVE RENTAL LEVEL (EUR/m²) REGION MIN. (EUR/m²) MAX. (EUR/m²) Warsaw zone I Warsaw zone II Warsaw zone III Central Poland Poznań Upper Silesia ,00 Kraków Wrocław Tricity Toruń/Bydgoszcz Szczecin Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

14 Total demand in 2014 Prognosis 2015 > At the end of December 2014, 685,500 m 2 remained under construction, of which ca. 70% have already been leased. The majority of those projects will be delivered to the market by the end of > A considerable number of planned projects can also be observed. However, those will not be purely speculative investments; developers will aim to secure at least a part of the planned investment with leasing agreements. > In the upcoming quarters, we expect increased demand for industrial space generated by companies from the e-commerce sector. > It is also expected that new entrants (by and large from Germany and Scandinavia) will locate their logistics centres in Poland. > Toruń / Bydgoszcz during the past 12 months 13,500 m 2 were delivered to the market as a result of the revitalisation of an existing building. Consequently, the supply in this region totalled nearly 114,600 m 2. At present there are no projects under construction in the analysed market. The vacancy rate stood at 29.1% at the end of December The demand in 2014 was at the level comparable with the figure from 2013 and stood at 14,900 m 2 leased within four agreements. > Szczecin the region remains the smallest of the analysed markets, with supply totalling 73,000 m 2. In 2014, as much as 24,600 m 2 were delivered to the Szczecin market within two projects, which constituted an increase in supply by ca. 50% compared with the end of These two projects were extensions of North-West Logistic Park and Prologis Park Szczecin. Two further stages of North-West Logistic Park remain under construction, with total space of 42,600 m 2. Szczecin remains the only market where all existing A-class warehouses are completely leased. In the past year, nine agreements for 37,300 m 2 were signed in the Szczecin market. > In the west of Poland we will observe the next phase of openings of factories by producers from Western Europe and the USA. > At the same time, we forecast further development of smaller logistics markets (Rzeszów, Lublin, Bydgoszcz, Opole), where there have been no modern industrial projects so far. > We can observe an increase in opportunities and interest in sale & lease back (with modernisation of projects or without), which means the sale of industrial projects to professional operators and their lease back. > We expect further ownership changes in the Polish industrial market as well. 14 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

15 Retail Summary 2014 > At the end of 2014, the total stock of modern retail space in Poland reached approx million m 2. Among retail formats, traditional shopping centres still dominate (89% of stock), while retail parks and outlet centres constitute 9% and 2% respectively. > The retail space density ratio increased in Poland to 269 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants. Among the eight major Polish agglomerations, the highest level of this ratio is noted in Wrocław (765 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants), while among regional cities it is highest in Lublin (773 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants). > During the past year, about 451,000 m 2 of new retail space was delivered to the market, which is 30% less than in It is also the lowest result since Extensions of existing schemes constituted 13% of new supply. > Contrary to the situation observed in 2013, the past year was dominated by smaller towns (below 100,000 inhabitants) in terms of new supply. As much as 46% of newly delivered space is located there, while new supply in the largest agglomerations accounted for only 11%. > The majority of newly opened projects are shopping centres smaller than 20,000 m 2 GLA. The largest schemes opened in 2014 include: Atrium Felicity in Lublin (75,000 m 2 ), Galeria Warmińska in Olsztyn (41,500 m 2 ), Galeria Siedlce (34,000 m 2 ) and Galeria Amber in Kalisz (33,500 m 2 ). Evolution of retail stock in Poland Main retail schemes completed in 2014 CITY PROJECT DEVELOPER SIZE (m² GLA) Lublin Atrium Felicity Atrium Real Estate 75,000 Olsztyn Galeria Warmińska Libra Project 41,500 Siedlce Galeria Siedlce Przedsiębiorstwo Budowlane Konstanty Strus 34,000 Kalisz Galeria Amber Echo Investment 33,500 Ostrołęka Galeria Bursztynowa Narev Inwestycje 27,000 Piła Vivo! Piła Starachowice Centrum Galardia Rank Progress & Immofinanz Group Balmain Asset Management / NBGI Private Equity / Claybark 23,800 18,500 Ełk Brama Mazur Master Management Group 17,000 Kutno Marcredo Center Kutno Elbfonds Development 16, Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

16 > We observed an increase in developers interest in eastern Poland, where the biggest projects of 2014 were delivered. Tenant mix in main high streets in selected Polish cities* (by number of stores) > In 2014, about 40 new international brands, such as Clinique, Desigual, Adidas NEO, Fullah Sugah, Kiehl s, Imagunarium and Kipling, debuted in Poland. Additionally, the first Avon Studio store in Poland was opened in Złote Tarasy. The well-known market chains Lee and Wrangler opened their first independent stores, while Marks&Spencer presented its concept M&S Coffee To Go. Also, Calvin Klein Jeans and Calvin Klein Watches&Jewelry opened stores. > Among the debuting brands, those in the fashion (40%) and health&beauty (16%) sectors dominated. Warsaw was the most popular location among chains for their first store (60% of new openings). Selected entries of new brands in 2014 BRAND CATEGORY ORIGIN FIRST LOCATION Avon Studio Health & beauty US Złote Tarasy, Warsaw Clinique Health & beauty US Złote Tarasy, Warsaw Desigual Fashion ES Arkadia, Warsaw Devred 1902 Fashion FR Wola Park, Warsaw Kipling Bags & accessories BE Arkadia, Warsaw Imaginarium Children & maternity ES Arkadia, Warsaw Inside Fashion ES Galeria Katowicka, Katowice Kiehl's Health & beauty US Arkadia, Warsaw Adidas NEO Fashion DE Arkadia, Warsaw Sinequanone Fashion FR Galeria Warmińska, Olsztyn > In 2014, the vacancy rate in major Polish cities stood at a level below 4%. The highest level was noted in Upper Silesia (3.5%), while the lowest was in Warsaw (1.6%). > The highest level of prime rents for retail space located in the best shopping centres was observed in Warsaw (EUR 95-97/m 2 /month). In the remaining markets, prime rents were in the range EUR 39-45/m 2 /month. * Warsaw, Kraków, Poznań, Wrocław, Katowice, Łódź, Tricity Selected lease transactions in 2014 TENANT AREA (m²) LOCATION Van Graaf 3,500 Centrum Riviera, Gdynia Reserved 2,000 Galeria Malta, Poznań H&M 1,700 Blue City, Warsaw Komputronik Megastore 1,400 Poznań Plaza C&A 700 Forum, Gliwice Hebe 360 Galeria Korona, Kielce Pierre Cardin 184 Silesia City Center, Katowice Samsung Saturn Store 140 Galeria Katowicka, Katowice Kiko Milano 100 Arkadia, Warsaw Kipling 79 Arkadia, Warsaw > In the main high streets located in the centres of several of the largest Polish cities, there are a total of approx. 3,100 retail and service units. An analysis of the tenant structure shows that the largest groups of tenants are those in the gastronomy (27%), fashion (11%) and services (10%) sectors. The domination of gastronomy is most evident in Wrocław (38%), Kraków (31%), Poznań (30%) and Tricity (29%). The highest share of stores from the fashion sector and financial institutions can be found in Katowice 19% and 14% respectively, while in case of services, Warsaw dominates (13%). In 2014 approx. 10% of units in high streets remained vacant. 16 Research & Forecast Report 2014 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

17 Retail market in the major Polish agglomerations > Warsaw remains the biggest retail market in Poland. At the end of 2014, the total supply of modern retail space reached 1.4 million m 2 (43 schemes), with a density ratio of 560 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants. Among the formats, traditional shopping centres dominate (80% of space), while retail parks and outlet centres constitute 17% and 3% respectively. Currently, there are about 66,000 m 2 under construction within two new projects (Ferio Wawer and Fabryka Wołomin) and an extension of the Factory Ursus outlet centre by 6,000 m 2 and Wola Park shopping centre by 17,500 m 2. The vacancy rate at the end of December 2014 was 1.6%. > Kraków during the past year the situation in the Kraków retail market did not change compared to The total stock amounts to 549,400 m 2 (15 schemes) and the density ratio was 534 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants. The share of traditional shopping centres in Kraków amounts to 93%. Currently there are no schemes under construction; however, the Mayland Real Estate project Serenada (43,000 m 2 GLA) is at the advanced level of preparation for construction. At the end of the year, the vacancy rate was 2.8%. > Poznań in the course of 2014, the total retail stock in Poznań increased to 622,300 m 2 due to the opening of the nineteenth scheme in the city Galeria Dębiec (9,800 m 2 GLA). The retail space density ratio is 759 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants. Among formats present in the city, we can find traditional shopping centres (85%) as well as one retail park and one outlet centre. Currently there are two new projects under construction Posnania (100,000 m 2 GLA) and Galeria A2 (6,600 m 2 GLA). The vacancy ratio was 3.3% at the end of last year. > Wrocław is the most saturated market among the eight major Polish agglomerations (765 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants). The supply of modern retail space is at a level of 599,800 m 2 (located within 18 schemes) and is a bit higher than in 2013 due to the opening of a new part of Magnolia Park (5,700 m 2 GLA). Wrocław offers traditional shopping centres (82%), retail parks (16%) and one outlet centre. At the end of December 2014 there were 50,000 m 2 under construction within the extension of Park Handlowy Bielany and the next phase of the Magnolia Park extension. The vacancy ratio was 2.6%. > Tricity the third biggest retail market in Poland in terms of size (692,500 m 2 25 schemes) with a density ratio of 674 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants. The supply of retail space includes traditional shopping centres (79%), as well as retail parks (19%) and an outlet centre (2%). In the past year, we did not witness any new completions. Currently there are two schemes under construction Galeria Metropolia (22,000 m 2 GLA) and Verus retail complex (7,000 m 2 GLA). Also the first phase of CH Morena in Gdańsk is in progress the centre will be enlarged by a retail park (2,800 m 2 GLA). The vacancy ratio was 1.8% at the end of > Upper Silesia this market remained the second biggest retail market in Poland and offers 44 shopping centres totaling 1.1 million m 2 of leasable area. The density ratio stands at 510 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants. 88% of stock is represented by traditional shopping centres. During the past year, three new schemes (Marcredo Center Piekary Śląskie 8,000 m 2 GLA, Ruda Park 6,500 m 2 GLA, Stara Cegielnia 6,000 m 2 GLA) and two extensions of existing projects were completed.there are two new investments under construction, which are planned to be delivered to the market in 2015: Supersam in Katowice (21,000 m 2 GLA) and Galeria Galena in Jaworzno (31,500 m 2 GLA). The vacancy ratio is currently 3.5%. Retail space density, supply and purchasing power, GfK > Łódź the total stock in Łódź amounted to 508,400 m 2 at the end of 2014 (15 schemes), while the density ratio reached 520 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants. In the format structure, traditional ones dominate and represent 97%. In the course of the year one new scheme was completed Vis à Vis retail park offering 5,600 m 2 GLA. Currently, there is one new project under construction Sukcesja (46,000 m 2 GLA), which, once it opens, will be the third biggest shopping centre in the city. At the end of December 2014 the vacancy ratio in Łódź stood at 2.4%. > Szczecin remains the smallest (275,300 m 2, 11 schemes) and the least saturated (494 m 2 /1,000 inhabitants) market among the eight major Polish agglomerations. One can find here schemes from all retail formats; however, traditional shopping centres dominate (89% of supply). Currently there are no new ongoing projects. The vacancy rate is 3.3%. 17 Research & Forecast Report 2013 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

18 Prognosis 2015 > At the end of 2014, about 770,000 m 2 of retail space remained under construction in Poland, 18% of which are extensions of existing schemes. > Developers interest in cities with a population below 100,000 inhabitants is not declining. However, we are observing a return of the major agglomerations, where 46% of space under construction is located. > It is estimated that in 2015 the increase of supply will be higher than in the past year and will reach a level of 600,000 m 2. The biggest openings planned for 2015 include Zielone Arkady in Bydgoszcz (51,000 m 2 ), Sukcesja in Łódź (46,000 m 2 ) and Tarasy Zamkowe in Lublin (38,000 m 2 ). > The vacancy rates will probably remain stable and will not exceed 5% across the eight major Polish retail markets. Main retail schemes planned to be delivered in 2015 CITY PROJECT DEVELOPER SIZE (m² GLA) Bydgoszcz Zielone Arkady ECE 51,000 Łódź Sukcesja Fabryka Biznesu 46,000 Lublin Tarasy Zamkowe Immofinanz Group 38,000 Wrocław Stalowa Wola Park Handlowy Bielany (extension) Vivo! Stalowa Wola Inter IKEA 35,000 Immofinanz Group & Acteeum Group 32,500 Jaworzno Galeria Galena PA Nova 31,500 Głogów Galeria Glogovia Saller 27,000 Białystok Galeria Jurowiecka Przedsiębiorstwo Budowlane Konstanty Strus 25,000 Starogard Gd. Galeria Neptun Galeria Neptun 25,000 > Rental rates across the eight major Polish agglomerations will remain stable. A slight decreasing trend may be observed in cities with a high density ratio and this will affect older schemes in particular cities. 18 Research & Forecast Report 2013 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

19 Hotels Summary 2014 > The perception of the hospitality market by investors, developers, financial institutions and clients has improved significantly over recent years. > Analysis by location shows a decreasing share of hotel additions in voivodeship cities, from 22.1% (42 hotels out of 190) in 2013 to only 14.6% (22 out of 151 hotels) in The rise in hotel supply in smaller cities and holiday resorts is observed. Polish hotel stock in 2014 > Investors and developers now see the opportunities that hotel investments can offer; banks are more willing to provide financing for these kind of projects; and travellers, who often choose hotels when booking accommodation. > A rise in investor activity in the hospitality market in Poland produced a 40% surge in hotel supply from , reflecting an improvement in the quality of assets, and higher occupancy and ADR levels. Supply > As of 31 December 2014 Poland offered 2,511 licensed hotels, which provided 238,611 beds in 119,717 rooms. Three-star facilities accounted for the largest share, 43.4%, of the total supply, with one-star-facilities making up the smallest share at 5.7%. Source: Pro Value Sp. z o.o. based on The Office of the Marshal Polish hotel base growth in 2014 > The average hotel in Poland offers 95 beds in 47.7 rooms. The saturation level is 31.1 rooms (62 beds) per 1,000 inhabitants. > In 2014, 151 licensed hotels were delivered to the Polish market. These new facilities provided 11,975 beds in 6,025 rooms. Although this represented a fall of 20.5% 39 fewer facilities compared with the number of new hotels supplied in 2013, the hospitality sector is considered to be on track for further growth. Source: Pro Value Sp. z o.o. based on The Office of the Marshal 19 Research & Forecast Report 2013 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

20 > The imminent upgrade of Poland s transport infrastructure will exacerbate this trend: faster railway connections (Pendolino), completion of motorways and expressway improvements and extensions, new low-fare airline routes. International brands market share > International brands share of Poland s hotel market is just 6%. But in terms of the number of rooms, their share exceeds 20%, reflecting the market s diversity. The overwhelming majority of the country s hotels are small, private, independently-run facilities. International hotel brands openings in 2014 Branded hotel schemes under construction HOTEL CATEGORY NUMBER OF ROOMS Best Western Petropol Płock *** 83 Hampton by Hilton in Jelenia Góra *** 116 Hampton by Hilton in Wrocław *** 101 Ibis Styles, Białystok *** 130 Ibis Styles, Siedlce *** 102 Best Western Plus Brzeg Centrum **** 60 Best Western Plus Q Kraków **** 154 Courtyard by Marriott in Gdynia **** 201 Double Tree by Hilton and Hampton by Hilton in Kraków ****/*** 224 and 161 Double Tree by Hilton in Wrocław **** 190 Radisson Blu Resort in Świnoujście ***** 430 Raffles Hotels & Resorts in Warsaw ***** 103 Renaissance by Marriott ***** 225 HOTEL CATEGORY NUMBER OF ROOMS Best Western Opole Centrum *** 30 Hampton by Hilton Warsaw City Centre, Warsaw *** 300 Ibis Styles Wrocław Centrum, Wrocław *** 133 Best Western Plus Q Wrocław **** 127 Double Tree by Hilton Hotel & Conference Centre, Warsaw **** 359 Hilton Garden Inn Kraków Airport **** 155 Mercure Bydgoszcz Sepia Hotel **** 90 Source: Pro Value Sp. z o.o. > As shown, Hilton Group and Best Western have made significant inroads into the Polish market. > There is seen an activity of the domestic hotel operators on the market. For example Puro Hotels opened a facility in Poznań last year and another Puro hotel will soon commence operations in Gdańsk. Also Irena Eris SPA s third holistic hotel opened last year in Polanica, while the Polish hotel chain Focus Hotele opened a Focus Premium in Wrocław. > The share of branded hotels in the general resources is steadily increasing, we anticipate that in the near future this trend will continue. > It s worth mentioning that international hotel chains boast higher occupancy and ADR levels compared with independently run hotels, and thus are attractive as investments. Source: Pro Value Sp. z o.o. Quality and functionality > Modern hotels are a response to the needs of the market in terms of scale, standard and scope of services offered. And most importantly, these facilities are being developed based on in-depth analysis of their financial viability. This is a result of an increasing number of experienced property investors as well as a change in the attitude of non-property investors, who now take a range of economic factors into account when making their choices. > Owing to the growing requirements of hotel guests, hotel chains are forced to be innovative and creative in their business approach, with new ideas for interior design and space arrangement. > Modern hotels often offer a spacious lobby at the expense of room size. In effect, gross hotel useable area decreases, which helps to lower both construction and operational costs. > The lobby takes on a new role as a bustling social hub where guests can meet, work, check their mail or work. The lobby is no longer only a business centre. 20 Research & Forecast Report 2013 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

21 Modern technology in hotels sector > New technologies spread quickly in the hotel business. The largest hotel chains such as Marriott, Hilton and Starwood plan to introduce mobile check-in and smartphone apps that act as room keys. > New technologies can be observed also in Polish hotels, for example Puro hotels are offered check-in kiosks that replace the traditional front desks, while a tablet in each room controls its temperature and lighting and provides international telephone connections. Prognosis 2015 > The supply of hotels in Poland will continue to grow in large and smaller cities, as well as in touristic locations. > We will observe continuous interest of hotel operators in regional cities. The share of branded hotels in total stock will keep growing. > Further development of budget and upper-budget economic hotel sector will be observed as well. For more information please contact: Dorota Malinowska Partner Hospitality Pro Value Sp. z o.o. M: E: dorota.malinowska@pro-value.pl Jacek Kozioł Partner Research & Consultancy Pro Value Sp. z o.o. M: E: jacek.koziol@pro-value.pl Pro Value Sp. z o.o. ul. Nowy Świat 42/ Warszawa 21 Research & Forecast Report 2013 Year-End Review Poland Colliers International

22 485 offices in 63 countries on 6 continents United States: 146 Canada: 44 Latin America: 25 Asia Pacific: 186 EMEA: bn income in mln m 2 under management Contact: Research and Consultancy Services Dominika Jędrak Director dominika.jedrak@colliers.com Colliers International Poland Pl. Piłsudskiego Warszawa Poland ,800 employees About Colliers International Colliers International is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with over 15,800 professionals operating out of more than 485 offices in 63 countries. A subsidiary of FirstService Corporation, Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate users, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. The latest annual survey by the Lipsey Company ranked Colliers International as the second-most recognized commercial real estate firm in the world. colliers.pl Copyright 2015 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.