Future Light Vehicle Powertrain Trends One Problem, Many Solutions
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1 Future Light Vehicle Powertrain Trends One Problem, Many Solutions Mike Omotoso August 6,
2 Outline Light Vehicle Market Overview North American Powertrain Trends Diesel Market Product Coming? Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Niche Still? Conventional Powertrains Don t Count Them Out! Alt Fuel vs. Conventional Powertrains Conclusions 2
3 2013 Global Light Vehicle Sales Stable but with Risks Global: 83.9M 4% N. America: 18.3M 7% USA: 15.6M 8% Europe: 17.5M -3% Germany: 3.2M -3% Brazil: 3.8M 3% S. America: 5.7M 3% Russia: 3.0M 3% India: 3.0M -8% Asia: 35.9M 5% China: 21.3M 11% Japan: 5.2M -1% Source: LMC Automotive 3
4 North America Light Vehicle Sales Trend Source: LMC Automotive 2013: +8% 15.57M +3% 2013: 1.72M +9% 2013: 1.07M 4
5 Volume U.S. Retail Sales Trend Strong 1 st Half; Stronger 2 nd Half? 10.3M Total Sales Total Sales First time all drivers positive or neutral since M 14.5M 12.8M 11.7M Risk 9% YoY 12.6M Disposable Income 2. Unemp. 3. Housing Market 4. Stock Market 5. Fuel Prices 6. Credit Avail. 7. Vehicle Equity Vehicle Incentive Price Actions 10. Product Activity 2013F Macro Factors Consumer Internals & OEM Drivers Source: LMC Automotive, Oxford Economics, Industry Sources 5
6 Millions NA Production and Capacity Long-term Trend 25 Getting Tight! 100% % 60% 40% 20% 0 0% NA Production Underutilized Capacity % Utilization Increasing NA sourcing and exports drive production Global platforms/powertrain implications Demand driven growth supports level, leaner build environment continues Source: LMC Automotive 6
7 The Automotive Industry Faces Pressure from All Sides Wall Street Gas prices CO2/global warming Environmental awareness CAFE Standards Shifting consumer preferences Safety regulations Demographic shifts Electronics/ infotainment Auto Industry Kids don t like cars anymore Increased competition Alternative Powertrains Economic uncertainty 7
8 Diesel Light Vehicles 8
9 Diesel Activity Across Segments Volkswagen s TDI engines dominate - 23% share YTD July 2013 GM: diesel Chevrolet Cruze for US market on sale since April mpg highway beats Jetta by 4 mpg MSRP $25,695 (vs. $23,055 for Jetta) Mercedes-Benz GLK250 launched in June liter four-cylinder engine Fifth Mercedes-Benz diesel model for the US 2014 Jeep Grand Cherokee launched in April liter V-6 engine from VW Motori $4,500 premium over V-6 gasoline version Other models coming: 2014 Ram Promaster, Ram 1500, Mazda6, BMW 3-Series 9
10 US Diesel Sales Still Viable, but Not What It Used To Be Market is dominated by HD pickups, VW and German luxury Diesel volumes grow from 400k in 2011 to 1M in 2015 Largest growth segments are LD pickups and CUV/SUV CAFE regulations drive medium term growth Year Diesel volume 445, , , ,000 1,120,000 1,225,000 1,310,000 Diesel share 3.1% 3.8% 5.0% 5.8% 6.6% 7.2% 7.5% Diesel price premium is significantly lower than hybrids and EVs VW diesel premiums range from $1,800-$3,500 depending on model Higher residual values, pump price close to premium gas Payback period can be as low as three years depending on miles driven Still need to overcome prejudice by some consumers; market Clean diesel Source: LMC Automotive 10
11 Hybrid and Electric Vehicles 11
12 Electric Vehicles are Coming, but Will They Sell? $1000/kWh $800/kWh $ /kWh $ /kWh Battery Cost 2014 Tesla Model X Crossover electric vehicle (delayed) Nissan NV200 To compete with Ford Transit EV Mercedes-Benz B-Class Q1 launch 2013 Fiat 500 EV Q2 launch, built to meet CA ZEV legislation BMW i3 Carbon fiber body, compact EV, starting at $41,350 Chevrolet Spark EV Q3 launch, $26,685 before tax credits 2015 Mazda2 EV Ford Fiesta based BEV. Already in Japan test fleet Volkswagen Golf EV a.k.a. e-golf Infiniti EV Based on Nissan Leaf ; delayed indefinitely Ford Focus EV MSRP $31,700 vs. Ford Focus base MSRP $16,200. BEV premium = $15,500 Honda Fit EV MSRP $29,915 vs. Honda Fit base MSRP $15,425. BEV premium = $14,490 Fiat 500 EV vs. Fiat 500 Pop $16,000. BEV premium = $8,300 Payback period > 10 years Note: BEV prices are after the $7,500 federal tax credit 12
13 Increased sales What Do Consumers Think About EVs? The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Good: Good for the environment Cool factor Hybrids are old news Tax credit Bad: Too expensive Limited driving range Lack of charging infrastructure Ugly: Goofy-looking cars Battery failures are expensive Longer driving range Lower battery prices The future High gas prices More public charging stations 13
14 Hybrids and EVs Lots of Activity, but Not Many Sales Millions PHEV/BEV HEV LV Sales Source: LMC Automotive Note: President Obama s target was 1 million EVs on the road by 2015
15 Conventional Powertrains 15
16 Traditional Powertrain Technology - Plenty of Room for Improvement Engines: $500-$1500 incremental cost GDI: 5-10% gain Turbocharging: 5-10% gain EcoBoost: 10-15% gain Cylinder deactivation: 4-6% gain Micro- or mild hybrid (stop-start): 4-8% gain HCCI Transmissions: $500-$1000 incremental cost DCT: 3-10% gain compared to automatics CVT vs. automatic: 3-5% gain 8/9/10 speed automatic transmission: 6-16% gain Software to optimize gearing for improved FE 7-speed manual (Porsche 911, 2014 Corvette) Source: LMC Automotive 16
17 Significant Increases In Turbocharging and Direct Injection Source: LMC Automotive 17
18 Transmission Speeds The More the Merrier 2014 Jeep Cherokee Nine-speed auto (from ZF) 16% better fuel economy than six-speed 2014 Chevrolet Corvette Seven-speed manual transmission 2014 Cadillac CTS Eight-speed automatic (from Aisin) replaces GM six-speed gearbox Ford/GM Nine-speed automatics for front wheel drive vehicles (starting in 2016) Ford/GM Ten-speed automatics for rear wheel drive vehicles (starting in 2016) Fiat-Chrysler Replaced five-speed automatics with eight-speed units for RWD vehicles, six to nine-speed for FWD Daimler Nine-speed automatics for RWD starting in Share with Infiniti? ZF 9-speed automatic transmission Source: LMC Automotive Automatic Transmission Production in North America Number of forward gears % 7% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 5 18% 13% 9% 5% 4% 3% 3% 6 66% 71% 74% 73% 60% 47% 35% 7 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 8 3% 7% 8% 12% 19% 24% 22% 9 0% 1% 3% 5% 13% 21% 28% 10 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.3% 3% 11% Aisin eight-speed automatic transmission 18
19 What s the Right Strategy? King of the hybrids. Toyota Prius is the global leader, Toyota and Lexus hybrid portfolio keep expanding. Dabbling in PHEV and BEV market with Prius PHEV, Rav4 EV, Scion iq EV. Diversified portfolio. Hybrids (Fusion, MKZ, C-Max), plug-ins (C-Max), BEVs (Focus BEV). But EcoBoost (GDI + turbocharging) is the big winner so far. All-in with electric vehicles. Multi-billion dollar investments for Li-ion batteries, Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe. Limited success with Altima hybrid. 19
20 Let s Go Shopping! Toyota Prius Prius PHEV Ford Focus Focus BEV VW Jetta TDI Propulsion type Hybrid Plug-in Gasoline Electric Diesel Base MSRP $24,200 $29,500* $16,200 $31,700* $23,055 Combined MPG Annual fuel cost $1,050 $950 $1,750 $600 $1,700 Seating cap Cargo (cu. ft.) Fuel tank n/a 14.5 Driving range (mi.) * After federal tax credit. $7,500 for Ford Focus BEV, $2,500 for Toyota Prius PHEV Vehicle prices as of July 1, 2013 Sources: Fueleconomy.gov, Toyota, Ford and VW USA websites 20
21 Fuel Source: Infrastructure is Key Gasoline and hybrid: 130,000 filling stations nationwide Diesel: approximately 52% of filling stations Flex fuel: About 2,600 E85 stations nationwide PHEV/BEV: Around 17,500 charging stations 21
22 U.S. Light Vehicle Demand by Fuel Type Flex fuel vehicles currently have the highest share of the alternative fuel market, but consumers mostly power them with gasoline We expect almost 28% of light vehicles sold in the U.S. to be an alternative fuel vehicle by 2020 Electric vehicle share is expected to remain below 1% until 2020 Over 1/3 of light vehicles will use alt fuels by 2025 Source: LMC Automotive 22
23 Conclusions Tougher emissions standards and higher fuel prices are affecting OEM powertrain strategies Price premium for diesel is lower than that of hybrids. BEVs and plug-ins have the highest premium w.r.t. gasoline-powered vehicles Continuous improvements in ICE technology will push BEVs and FCVs further into the future Vehicle manufacturers have to balance government regulation, consumer preferences, pricing and cost to find the right fleet mix Natural gas vehicles make sense for medium and heavy duty vehicle fleets, but not for individual consumers From a cost perspective, gasoline ICEs still make the most sense for the average consumer and for vehicle manufacturers. Payback period is still too high for BEV/PHEV 23
24 Accurate Real-Time Automotive Forecasting and Market Intelligence 24
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