Italy is turning around! May, 2016

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1 Italy is turning around! May, 2016

2 Agenda The starting point The program The results The road ahead 1

3 Structural challenges aggravated by recession 40 years old problems Decisions Labor market Bureaucracy Taxes 2011/2012 financial crisis & austerity measures No political accountability Antiquated & rigid Ineffective & slow High & unevenly distributed Severe recession 2

4 Agenda The starting point The program The results The road ahead 3

5 Guaranteeing political accountability DECISIONS Constitutional reform Upper House no longer a duplicate of Lower House Decision power on energy, labor and environment in the hands of Central Government Electoral law A clear winner (like in presidential systems) Government and parliament aligned (like in parliamentary systems) 4

6 Modernizing the labor market LABOR MARKET New rules for hiring and termination: simpler, certain, and more flexible Over 450,000 new jobs More stable contracts 5

7 Waging war on red tape and excessive bureaucracy Examples BUREAUCRACY Fiscal Judicial Authorization processes Cooperative compliance Overdue case load down by 13% Introducing silent consent and more to come! 6

8 Massively reducing taxes on labor and production Tax bill reduction Real estate taxes 28.8 bn bn 3.6 TAXES Taxes on labor and production % of GDP 2016 vs vs

9 while maintaining financial rigor Deficit, % of GDP TAXES 3.0% 2.6% 2.3% (forecast) 8

10 and reducing debt for the first time after 9 years Debt, % of GDP TAXES (forecast) 9

11 Tax cuts are financed through sustainable spending review and measures against fiscal evasion TAXES Tax cuts Spending review: 25 billion euro in 2016 No firings No cuts to pensions No linear cuts structural improvements Additional resources allocated to healthcare, security, education, and capital investments Measures against fiscal evasion: over 5 billion euro in additional revenues 10

12 Spending review is anchored in deep change programs Examples TAXES From 50,000 purchasing points for goods & services to 35 Enforcing clinical and operating efficiency standards in hospitals Merging 1 police force and operationally coordinating the other 3 Standard costs system to determine local government budgets (cities) 30,000 service cars less (-50%) and more to come! 11

13 Unprecedented cut of current spending Increase/decrease 2015 vs % TAXES 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% -10 bn -1.3% 12

14 Agenda The starting point The program The results The road ahead 13

15 The economy has restarted growing GDP growth, Percent Renzi government 0.8% 1.2% -0.4% -1.9% (forecast) 14

16 ..and we are closing down the growth gap with the rest of Euro zone Growth rate differential Italy vs. rest of the Euro zone, % of GDP (avg.) (for.) 15

17 Unemployment is declining Percent Renzi government I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

18 Fighting inequality works: consumption growth is driven by tax rebates to medium-low level income Consumption evolution in Italy, 2015 vs 2014, % Families who received the 80 monthly rebate Average Italian family Families who didn't receive the rebate SOURCE: Nielsen family panel 17

19 Is recovery in Italy slow? (1/2) GDP growth Italy: 1 year to go positive Spain: 2 years to go positive New government 0.8% New government 1.4% -1.9% -0.4% -0.8% -2.6% -1.6%

20 Is recovery in Italy slow? (2/2) Unemployment Italy I II III IV I quarters to go below starting point Spain I II III IV I II III IV I II III Germany quarters to go below starting point quarters to go below starting point I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I

21 Positive results achieved in a challenging context with low growth and low inflation Eurozone annual growth rates, % Real growth Nominal growth

22 Agenda The starting point The program The results The road ahead 21

23 What s next? Decision processes, labor and taxes Constitutional reform Popular Referendum Enact harmonized national legislation (energy, environment, etc.) Labor market Launch the national Labor Agency Measures to enhance productivity and incentivize company level negotiation Tax reduction and spending review Continue at full speed 22

24 What s next? Bureaucracy reforms Fiscal Extend cooperative compliance Full digitalization of business transactions to contrast tax evasion Judicial Roll out civil court management best practices (Turin) Civil justice reform Authorization processes Implement silent consent on the ground Reorganize local authorization processes 23

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