Canada 7-Day Weather Outlook Friday, September 02, 2016

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1 Canada 7-Day Weather Outlook Friday, September 02, 2016 An active jet stream will continue to bring several disturbances near or into the Prairies during the next two weeks. These disturbances will often produce enough rain to slow or delay harvesting in much of the production region. Erratic rainfall will continue today and Saturday from the low pressure center and frontal passage that began tracking across the region earlier this week. Two weak disturbances will then advance from the northern Plains into Ontario Sunday and Monday that will produce rain in several production areas. Rainfall Sunday and Monday will favor southern and eastern sections of the Prairies while other areas are dry or mostly dry. After a brief period of little to no rain Tuesday, another disorganized disturbance will promote scattered showers Wednesday through next Friday. Most production areas will only see brief periods of drying through the end of next week, but the best field working conditions may occur today through Wednesday from the southeastern corner of Alberta to the Rosetown, Elrose and Swift Current areas. The high pressure ridge axis will shift into Saskatchewan and Manitoba today and eastern sections of the Prairies Saturday. Temperatures will often be several degrees above average for this time of year due to the ridge funneling warm air into these areas. Portions of southern Saskatchewan will again warm into the lower 30s today. After that, the front pushes the warmest air back into the U.S. by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will trend near to below average for the remainder of the coming week.

2 No extended period of dryness is slated for the main production areas during the next two weeks. Harvest conditions will often be poor, most notably for the wetter biased locations in Alberta. A low pressure center and associated frontal passage will promote scattered showers when sweeping across the Prairies throughout the day today. Areas near and south of a line from Calgary, Alberta through Major, Saskatchewan will be dry for most of the day. Rainfall elsewhere will range from a trace to 8 millimeters with several areas near and west of a line from Red Deer through Whitecourt, Alberta receiving 6 to 25 millimeters of rain and locally greater amounts for areas closest to the Rocky Mountains. Coverage for these areas will be 70%. Portions of northern Alberta, northwestern Saskatchewan, and areas near or along the Rockies will receive light rain Saturday as the low pressure center exits the Prairies. Rain totals will range from a trace to 8 millimeters for areas near and west of a line from Lethbridge to Whitecourt, Alberta and north of a line from Whitecourt through Big River, Saskatchewan. Local rain totals over 8 millimeters will be possible for the higher elevated areas near the mountains as well. Coverage will be 50%. The frontal passage will also produce rain in southeastern Saskatchewan and much of Manitoba outside the northwest Saturday. Rain totals will range from a trace to 8 millimeters with areas east of Winnipeg, Manitoba receiving 6 to 10 millimeters of rain with locally greater amounts. Coverage will be 65%.

3 Rainfall will vary across the Prairies Sunday and Monday when two disturbances track from Minnesota and the Dakotas into Ontario. Light rain will fall in portions of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan while scattered showers evolve in central and southern Manitoba. A few locations along the Rocky Mountain front range will also receive light rain at times during the day. Scattered showers will then evolve in several portions of the Prairies throughout the day Monday. Areas near and east of a line from Melita through Dauphin, Manitoba will be wettest with moisture totals ranging from 6 to 25 millimeters with several areas southeast of Winnipeg receiving 20 to 50 millimeters of rain. Other areas near and south of a line from Pincher Creek, Alberta through Swan River, Manitoba will receive 3 to 10 millimeters of rain with locally greater amounts near the U.S. border. Coverage for these areas will be 85%. The remaining portions of the Prairies will receive a trace to 5 millimeters with locally greater amounts near the Rockies. Coverage will only be 35% for these areas. Light rain will be erratically distributed in portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan Tuesday. Moisture totals will range from a trace to 5 millimeters with coverage of 30%. The remaining areas will be dry. A disorganized disturbance will drift southeasterly across the Prairies Wednesday and Thursday. This disturbance will promote scattered showers that produce generally light rain. There is potential for isolated thunderstorms, though confidence is low. Lingering showers from the disturbance will continue next Friday as well. A cold airmass is expected to drop into the Prairies near mid-month and when that happens the frequent succession of storm systems should stop at least for a little while.

4 However, additional rain will still occur from Sep. 10 to Sep 14 when the surge of cold air should begin its impact on the region. Warm Weather Bias Will Gradually Come To An End By End Of Weekend Temperatures will remain in an above average bias in several portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba today and Saturday while a cool airmass slowly shifts easterly across the Prairies through the end of the weekend. Most areas will cool into a near to below average bias by Sunday that will continue most days next week. Drying rates will be low in most locations due to the lack of significant daytime heating and frequent precipitation. Pockets of frost will be possible for portions of Alberta and western Saskatchewan during the first part of next week. Temperatures will then alternate between warm and cool September The next coldest period in the Prairies that may threaten frost and some freezes should evolve around mid-month. High temperatures today will vary from the middle and upper teens with pockets in the lower teens in Alberta and western fringes of Saskatchewan. The remaining areas in the Prairies will warm into the middle and upper 20s with portions of western Saskatchewan warming into the lower 20s and pockets in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba warming into the lower 30s. Highs Saturday will be in the lower and middle 20s in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba with pockets in the upper 20s while the western Prairies warm into the middle and upper teens with pockets in western Alberta warming into the lower teens and portions of western Saskatchewan warming into the lower 20s. Highs Sunday will dip into the upper teens and lower 20s most often with portions of Alberta cooling into the lower and middle teens and portions of southeastern Manitoba warming into the mid-20s. Daytime highs next week will be in the upper teens and lower 20s most often with portions of Alberta again warming into the lower and mid-teens. Lows Saturday will be in the middle and upper single digits in much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan while the eastern Prairies cool into the lower and middle teens. Lows Sunday will range from 4 to 9 in much of Alberta and Saskatchewan with cooler pockets possible in Alberta. Manitoba will cool into the upper single digits and lower teens with pockets in the southeast cooling into the middle teens. Lows most days next week will range from 4 to 9 with portions of Alberta and western Saskatchewan cooling as low as 2 Monday and Tuesday. Winds Several areas in Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see wind speeds ranging from 20 to 35 kph with gusts of 50 kph or higher for much of the day today. Portions of Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan will also see wind speeds ranging from 15 to 30 kph with gusts of 45 kph or higher Monday and Tuesday. Sustained wind speeds will otherwise range from 10 to 25 kph with gusts of 35 kph or higher most days through the end of next week.

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6 7-Day Outlook World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation's judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Comments regarding damage or the impact of weather on agricultural and energy as well as comments made regarding the impact of weather on the commodity and financial markets are the explicit opinions of World Weather, Inc. World Weather, Inc. cannot be held responsible for decisions made by users of the Corporation's information in any business, trade or investment decision World Weather, Inc. Any unauthorized redistribution, duplication or disclosure is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution.

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