San Juan Basin. Assessment of Climate Change and Water Management in the San Juan Basin. Watershed Size: 16,000 mi 2 (42,000 km 2 )
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1 Assessment of Climate Change and Water Management in the San Juan Basin AWRA Annual Conference, Seattle, WA, 08-November-2005 Laura Weintraub, Limin Chen, Joel Herr - Systech Engineering Paul Rich - Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) Robert Goldstein - Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Systech Engineering, Inc San Juan Basin Watershed Size: 16,000 mi 2 (42,000 km 2 ) 1
2 Water Users Face Drought-Related Challenges SUPPLY Recent drought in San Juan Basin drove Navajo Reservoir to lowest level ever Endangered species in the San Juan River will likely reduce the reliability of water supply San Juan Generating Station uses 22,000 acre feet/year of San Juan River water Agricultural, Industrial and Municipal demands DEMAND What/Who is ZeroNet? Initial partnership: between LANL, EPRI, and PNM Established in multi-sector stakeholder meeting Main goal: to meet new power generation needs with Zero Net new freshwater withdrawals by 2010 DOE funding started in Spring of 2004 Current partnership: LANL, EPRI, PNM, Systech, SNL, UNM, NETL 2
3 ZeroNet Decision Tools Understand and integrate parts of complicated problems Stakeholder Input and Watershed Data to better predict outcomes of decisions Watershed Tools (WARMF) Geographic Information System (GIS) ZeroNet Knowledge Base San Juan Data Scenario Library lead: LANL, Paul Rich lead: Systech, Laura Weintraub Quick Scenario Tool lead: LANL/UNM, Mary Ewers WARMF Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework Watershed Tools Physically based: - meteorology, topography, land use, diversions, point sources Simulates stream flow and water quality Helps address "What If?" scenarios Results linked with quick scenario model and knowledge base
4 WARMF Credentials Applied to over 16 watersheds - Hydrology, water quality, TMDLs, watershed planning 4 USEPA-Guided Peer Reviews Available as a Public Domain Tool via USEPA - Compatible with EPA BASINS WARMF Applications Hydrologic Model Calibration Animas River above Farmington Glade 200 Simulated Observed Normal Year Flow (cms) R 2 = Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep Simulated Observed Wet Year 200 Simulated Observed Dry Year Flow (cms) R 2 =0.978 Flow (cms) 150 R 2 = Sep-92 Nov-92 Feb-9 May-9 Aug-9 0 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 4
5 ZeroNet Module Recovery Drought Drought vs. Recovery Scenarios Navajo Reservoir Recovery met data 1840 Elevation (m) Minimum Elevation Target Drought Continued Drought with 5000 acre-ft Produced Water & SS* Continued 1800 Drought with Shortage Sharing* 1790 Continued Drought Met data 1780 Sep-97 Sep-99 Sep-01 Sep-0 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-09 *Using the 200 Shortage Sharing values 5
6 Scenario Generation with ZeroNet Module Climate / Drought Scenarios Examine impact of drought and temperature increase on water supply Scenarios Temp Increase ( C) Drought Length (yr) DT0 DT1 DT2 D5T0 D5T1 D5T2 6 Scenarios Sampling random pattern of drought years 50 iterations per scenario (for convergence)
7 Navajo Reservoir Elevation - Year Drought DT0, 18% Reduction DT1, 65% Reduction DT2, 70% Reduction* Min Elev. Elevation (m) Normal Dry Normal / Wet Year Navajo Reservoir Elevation - 5 Year Drought D5T0, 45% Reduction D5T1, 62% Reduction D5T2, 70 % Reduction* Min Elev. Elevation (m) Normal Dry Normal / Wet Year 7
8 Reservoir Adjustment Summary Scenarios DT0 DT1 DT2 D5T0 D5T1 D5T2 Volume Held Back in Reservoir % Reduction Volume Held (AF) 86,786 14, , , ,268 1,58,127 Volume Held (AF/yr) 86,786 14,010 44, , ,756 9,52 # of Years To meet minimum elevation criteria, reservoir release had to be reduced for all scenarios Both temperature and drought have significant impacts Holding back water in reservoir creates more critical conditions downstream Impact of Reservoir Adjustment No Adjustment: Reservoir violates minimum elevation SJ River meets minimum flow requirement With Adjustment: Reservoir meets minimum elevation Most of SJ River violates minimum flow requirement 8
9 Shortage / Pass Through Charts: Increased Shortage with Higher Temperature and Longer Drought Shortage Summary Shortage summary (Acre-Feet) Scenarios San Juan Animas La Plata Total DT , ,440 DT1 5,586 9, ,857 2,907 DT2 96,104,069 1,95 44,108 D5T0 27, ,848 27,615 D5T1 95,07 14,405 80, ,722 D5T2 195,881 52, , ,42 Increased Shortage with higher temperature and longer drought La Plata always in shortage Shortages most significant below Farmington 9
10 Summary ZeroNet DSS Set of useful tools - Integrate critical water supply and demand information - Assist water owners and managers with planning drought and climate change Prototype distributed to the stakeholders of the San Juan Basin Future Work - Tighter integration of DSS tools - Continued work in San Juan Basin - Application to other watersheds 10
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