CERES INVESTOR SUMMIT ON CLIMATE RISK
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1 CERES INVESTOR SUMMIT ON CLIMATE RISK NEW YORK, UN HEADQUARTERS 15 JANUARY 2014 Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive Bloomberg New Energy Finance // / / / 1
2 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 21% $318bn -9% $289bn -12% 17% 34% 0.6% $195bn $196bn $262bn $254bn 44% $167bn 46% $55bn 45% $80bn $116bn Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). 2
3 NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY TOP COUNTRIES 2013 ($BN) AND % CHANGE ON 2012 China % United States % Japan % Germany United Kingdom % -9% India Canada Australia South Africa* France Italy Brazil % 33% -4% -14% -33% -73% -52% Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. *South Africa excludes R&D investment 3
4 LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY, H ($/MWH) Marine - wave Marine - tidal STEG - LFR STEG - parabolic trough STEG - tower & heliostat Wind - offshore PV - thin film PV - c-si PV - c-si tracking Biomass - anaerobic digestion Biomass - gasification Biomass - incineration Municipal solid waste Geothermal - binary plant Wind - onshore Small hydro Large hydro Landfill gas Geothermal - flash plant Natural gas CCGT Coal fired CHP Nuclear PV projects as low as $80/MWh Onshore wind as low as $37/MWh Q central H central Fossil technologies: US China Europe Australia Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for China and the US. 4
5 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS, (GW) Investment down 20% Installations up 2% 5
6 CLEAN ENERGY NEW BUILD INSTALLATIONS, (GW) Installations forecast to grow 37% 6
7 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 NEX NASDAQ S&P 500 Note: Values as of 06 January 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan
8 NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX YTD NEX NASDAQ S&P Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Note: Values as of 06 January 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan
9 PUBLIC MARKET NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q Q ($BN) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Four quarter running average 9
10 2013: TESLA A BIG DEAL Picture credits: Tesla 10
11 2014: NEST ANOTHER BIG DEAL Source: Nest 11
12 2011: WARREN BUFFET BIG CLEAN ENERGY INVESTOR Source: Bloomberg 12
13 QUOTE CLEAN ENERGY LIQUIDITY VEHICLE IPOs, 2013 ($M) 10% 8% 5% 3% yield % Jan Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 Esoteric REITs YieldCo UK Fund Note: UK-based fund yields based on prospectus target values and are relative to current share prices. In general these funds are ramping up to those targets, thus initial yields will be lower. G Yield s dividend yield based on their Q target value of $1.45/share at current share price. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13
14 CLEAN ENERGY PROJECT BONDS, (YIELD, SIZE) Coupon Coupon (%) (%) Desert Desert Sunlight Sunlight Baldwin, Baldwin, (U), (U), NAIC NAIC 2 Granite Granite Reliable Reliable Power, Power, BB BB Genesis Genesis (U), (U), A- A- Genesis Genesis (G), (G), AAA AAA Desert Desert Sunlight Sunlight (G), (G), AAA AAA Granite Granite Reliable Reliable Power, Power, AAA AAA Arlington Arlington Valley Valley II, II, (implied) (implied) Oaxaca Oaxaca IV, IV, Oaxaca Oaxaca II, II, Topaz, Topaz, Mount Mount Antelope Antelope Valley, Valley, Signal, Signal, L'Erable, L'Erable, Comber Comber, St St Clair, Clair, BBB BBB BBB BBB Solar Solar Power Power Generation Generation Ltd, Ltd, Westmill Westmill Solar Solar Cooperative, Cooperative, Topaz Topaz II, II, BBB BBB Foresight Foresight Group, Group, SolarCity LMC, 0 Jan Jan Jul Jul Feb Feb Aug Aug Mar Mar Sep Sep Geothermal Geothermal Solar Solar thermal thermal PV PV Wind Wind $100m $100m Note: data on disclosed deals, additional deals may have closed that were not made public 14
15 ENERGY-RELATED GREEN BONDS, ($BN) 16 CREB Other government QECB Corporate ringfenced Project bonds Note: YTD is to 15 January 2014 YTD Supranational 15
16 THANK YOU! MARKETS Renewable Energy Carbon Markets Energy Smart Technologies Renewable Energy Certificates Carbon Capture & Storage Power Water Nuclear Gas SERVICES Insight: research, analysis & forecasting Industry Intelligence: data & analytics News & Briefing: daily, weekly & monthly Applied Research: custom research & data mining Knowledge Services: Summit, Leadership Forums, Executive Briefings & workshops Subscription-based news, data and analysis to support your decisions in clean energy, power and water and the carbon markets
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