13 th Management Accountants International Conference October 30-31, Bhurban. Global Economic Outlook : Challenges & Opportunities for Pakistan

Transcription

1 13 th Management Accountants International Conference October 30-31, Bhurban Global Economic Outlook : Challenges & Opportunities for Pakistan Presentation by Muhammad Rafi Past President SAFA & ICMAP

2 Contents Global Economic Outlook Challenges to Pakistan Opportunities for Pakistan Reforms by the Government

3 Global Economic Outlook Recovery from the Financial & Economic Crisis of USA Modest Growth 2-2.4%, Tight Monetary Policy, Strong Dollar Technological Advancements help Accelerate Productivity UK Projected Growth 2.6%; Euro Region Projected Growth1.5% - 1.8%, Weaker Euro Japan Projected Growth1.3%; Weaker Yen China Projected Growth % Russia Projected Growth: %; ( % - 2.5%

4 Global Economic Outlook Average Real GDPs Modest Increase in Industrial Production Lower Oil Prices, Still Higher Demand in China & US Very Low Inflation Globally ( Except Russia, Venezuela, Egypt & Brazil); Lower Commodity Prices US Dollar Appreciation World High Income Countries Developing Countries

5 Global Economic Outlook GDP Size 2015 Billion Dollars US 1 st 17,419 China 3 rd 10,360 India 10 th 2,067 Egypt 41 st 287 Philippines 42 nd 285

6 Challenges to Pakistan Pakistan 6 th Largest Country in Population (188 million) but Ranks 46 th in GDP: Size $ 247 billion GDP Growth Rates improving but still the lowest in the South Asian Region World High Income Countries Developing Countries South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh

7 Challenges to Pakistan Peace Continuous Efforts till Removal of Travel Advisory Reducing Energy Shortfall GOP s Priority Ease of Doing Business, Low Ranking of 128 th out of 189 countries (Singapore at Top) Total 11 Areas of Evaluation Pakistan s Best Ranking : 21 st - Protecting Minority Interest Worst Ranking: 161 st - Enforcing Contracts & 146 th - Getting Electricity Lower DFI & Private Investment Above 3 challenges vital for improvement in this Area

8 Challenges to Pakistan Need for Broadening the Narrow Tax Base Tax to GDP Ratio Very Low Reforms Continue Need for Quality Education Primary School Going Population Lowest in Region Circular Debt Plan for Capping of Power Sector Circular Debt in Place now Lower Prices of Cotton & Rice May Cause Less Demand for Durable Goods by Agricultural Sector

9 Opportunities for Pakistan Large Market 188 million People Lower Oil Prices Lower cost of Transportation Low Cost of Power Generation Low Cost of Fertilizers Workers Remittances $17-18 billion (15% higher than previous year) China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Growth in Investment Power Generation Projects Employment Opportunities Demographic Advantage Young & Cheap Work Force

10 Reforms & Initiatives by the Government Policy Reforms Power Generation Policy 2015 Policy Framework for Private Sector Transmission Lines Project 2015 New Power Allocation Policy; No Load-shedding for Industry Petroleum Policy: Higher Gas Price for Producers; More Exploration & Development of Gas Leading to Increase in the Indigenous Production Raising of Tax Revenue from current 10% to 14% of GDP; Gradual Elimination of Tax Exemptions; Effective Plan for Increase in Tax Filers

11 Reforms & Initiatives by the Government New Power Generation Projects Power Generation to Increase by 10,000-11,000 MWs by July LNG Imports LNG Imports Stared Karachi-Lahore LNG Pipeline Planned TAPI Gas Pipeline Significant Progress Political Situation Stabilizing

12 Reforms & Initiatives by the Government Successful Negotiations for Debt Servicing Extension Restructuring & Divestment of Loss Making Units Positive Financial & Economic Indicators GDP Growth Improving Service Sector Growing Foreign Exchange Reserves Increasing Current Account Deficit Decreasing Poverty Ratio Reducing International Bond Rating - B3 ; Stable Outlook

13 Risks Reversal of Crude Oil Price Trend Unstable Political Situation Exchange Rate Depreciation Tight Financial Condition Decline in Remittances from Workers in Oil Exporting Countries Delays in Projects Completion

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