Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era?

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1 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114,, doi: /2008jd011288, 2009 Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era? C. V. Naidu, 1 K. Durgalakshmi, 1 K. Muni Krishna, 1 S. Ramalingeswara Rao, 1 G. C. Satyanarayana, 1 P. Lakshminarayana, 1 and L. Malleswara Rao 1 Received 17 October 2008; revised 12 July 2009; accepted 10 September 2009; published 31 December [1] Using long-term ( ) summer monsoon rainfall data over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India, overall tendencies of the rainfall have been studied. Further, the subseasonal (monthly) trends have been evaluated. For this purpose, simple linear regression technique is applied. To examine the trends in different segments for summer monsoon rainfall, 11-year running averages are calculated. Most of the subdivisions reveal systematic increasing and decreasing trends in different segments of the time series. India experienced wet monsoon conditions during the late 1950s and dry monsoon conditions around the early 1900s. In the global warming era ( ), 19 out of 30 meteorological subdivisions showed negative tendencies in summer monsoon rainfall. This decrease in summer monsoon rainfall is associated with a weakening of the Southern Oscillation and relaxation of the meridional temperature gradient over the Indian Ocean. The gamma distribution is used to study the distribution of the rainfall by calculating scale and shape parameters. In general, larger values of scale parameter are found over west coast during summer monsoon and individual months. The shape parameter is high over northeast India. Citation: Naidu, C. V., K. Durgalakshmi, K. Muni Krishna, S. Ramalingeswara Rao, G. C. Satyanarayana, P. Lakshminarayana, and L. Malleswara Rao (2009), Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over India in the global warming era?, J. Geophys. Res., 114,, doi: /2008jd Introduction [2] India depends strongly on agriculture. The yield of grain depends on the activity of summer monsoon. The intraseasonal variation of monsoon rainfall not only affects the agricultural sector but also the generation of hydroelectric power. These intraseasonal variations contribute to the interannual variations which are responsible for the longterm changes of the rainfall. [3] Summer monsoon rainfall exhibits both spatial and temporal fluctuations. The interannual variations cause drought or wet conditions in many parts of the country and their persistence on decadal time scales leads to longterm climatic changes. Such changes must be understood for proper planning in the sectors of agriculture, hydroelectric power, and economy. Many researchers studied the trends of rainfall over the Indian mainland. [4] A gradual increasing trend in annual rainfall over central India, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and north Assam and a decreasing trend over south Assam for the period were reported by Parthasarathy and Dhar [1974]. West coast stations experienced positive trends in annual rainfall and stations like Ahmadabad, Nagapur, and Gaya experienced negative trends [Alvi and Koteswaram, 1 Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union /09/2008JD ]. No significant trends could be noticed in monsoon as well as annual rainfall over India [Parthasarathy and Mooley, 1978; Thapliyal and Kulshrestha, 1991; Srivatsava et al., 1992; K. N. Rao and P. Jagannathan, Climate change in India, paper presented at Symposium on Changes in Climate, World Health Organization, Rome, 1963]. Significant positive trends over central India [Agarwal, 1952; Parthasarathy and Dhar, 1974], southwest India [Pramanik and Jagannathan, 1953; Parthasarathy and Dhar, 1974; Krishnan, 1984; Alvi and Koteswaram, 1985; Rupakumar et al., 1992], northeast India [Pramanik and Jagannathan, 1953; Parthasarathy and Dhar, 1974], northwest India [Parthasarathy and Dhar, 1974; Rupakumar et al., 1992], and central India [Agarwal, 1952; Parthasarathy and Dhar, 1974] were reported in the past. Significant negative trends were observed for northwest India [Koteswaram and Alvi, 1969; Winstanley, 1973], the south Peninsula [Pramanik and Jagannathan, 1953; Parthasarathy and Dhar, 1974; Krishnan, 1984; Soman et al., 1988; Rupakumar et al., 1992], and central India [Alvi and Koteswaram, 1985]. Increasing trends in the rainfall over Indus, Ganga, Bramhaputra, Krishna, and Cauvery basins were reported by Singh et al. [2005]. There were decreasing trends in central Indian basins of Sabarmati, Mahi, Narmada, Tapi, Godavari, and Mahanadi [Singh et al., 2005]; east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas; and northeast India [Zveryaev and Aleksandrova, 2004]. [5] Subbaramayya and Naidu [1992] observed a decreasing trend till the end of the 19th century, which was followed 1of16

2 Figure 1. Meteorological subdivisions of India. by an increasing trend till the middle of the previous century. Then the trend was reversed and continued till 1970, with a change toward an increase thereafter. They also observed a significant increasing trend over southeast peninsular India during , which is in a phase opposite to that of the rest of the country. Naidu et al. [1999] reported decreasing trends during and with an intervening increasing trend for most of the subdivisions over India for annual rainfall. [6] Chung and Ramanathan [2006] reported the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Indian Ocean have warmed by about 0.6 to 0.8 K since the 1950s, accompanied by very little warming or even a slight cooling trend over the north Indian Ocean. It is reported that this differential trend has resulted in a substantial weakening of the meridional SST gradient from the equatorial region to the south Asian coast during summer, to the extent that the gradient has nearly vanished recently. On the basis of simulation with the Community Climate Model version 3, it is shown that the summertime weakening in the SST gradient weakens the monsoon circulation, resulting in less monsoon rainfall over India and excess rainfall in sub- Saharan Africa. [7] Guhathakurta and Rajeevan [2008] considered monthly rainfall data for the period for a fixed network of 1476 rain gauge stations. During the southwest monsoon season, three subdivisions, namely, Jharkhand, Chattisgarh, and Kerala, showed significant decreasing trends and eight subdivisions, namely, Gangetic West Bengal, west Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and north interior Karnataka, showed significant increasing trends. Contribution of June, July, and September rainfall to the annual rainfall is decreasing for a few subdivisions, while the contribution of August rainfall is increasing in a few other subdivisions. [8] Sontakke et al. [2008] reported that a recent declining trend in the monsoon rainfall appears to be due to a decreasing trend in the slope of the geopotential height of the upper tropospheric isobaric levels from a portion of the northern subtropics (10 30 N, E) to a portion of the southern subtropics (5 15 S, E) over the Indian Ocean caused by an asymmetric rise of surface air temperatures of subtropical regions of the two hemispheres. The summer monsoon season temperature over the southern subtropics is rising at the rate of C every 10 years, while over the northern subtropics it is rising at the rate of C every 10 years. [9] This paper will examine the overall tendencies of summer monsoon rainfall and variable trends in different segments during over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India. Since most anthropogenic radiative forcing has occurred over the past 30 years, this study examines the changes in the tendencies in monsoon rainfall over different subdivisions of India in the global warming era ( ) and compares these trends with long-term trends. 2. Data and Methodology [10] The summer (June September) monsoon rainfall amounts for 30 meteorological subdivisions (Figure 1) of India have been collected from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Web site for the period The hilly regions (Arunachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and Jammu, and Kashmir) have not been considered by the IITM scientists due to sparse rain gauge network. The island subdivisions have not been considered to maintain contiguity. They have taken 360 stations for 30 subdivisions and 2of16

3 given proper weight for the area of each station in calculating the area weighted average of subdivisional rainfall. This data set was first prepared by Parthasarathy et al. [1995] and later it was extended by IITM scientists. [11] Time series graphs for all 30 subdivisions have been prepared and the corresponding trend lines are depicted. Linear regression technique is adopted for getting these trend lines and the trends are tested using students t-test. The statistic t is given by h t ¼ b ðn 2ÞSðx X Þ 2 2 =S y ^Y i1 = 2 ð1þ where b, N, x, X, y, and ^y represent the slope of the regression (in millimeters per year), number of years of data, the year, mean of the years, actual rainfall, and estimated rainfall, respectively. This regression analysis furnishes the overall tendency of rainfall. The trends for subdivisional rainfall in the individual months (June, July, August, and September) have been evaluated. [12] The trend in one direction may not persist throughout the whole period and different tendencies could occur in different segments of the time series. As the rainfall time series show short-term fluctuations which sometimes mask the identification of changes in the trend, the method of running averages with the cycle of 5 10 years was adopted in earlier studies to remove the short-term variations [Agarwal, 1952; Alvi and Koteswaram, 1985; Subbaramayya and Naidu, 1992]. In this paper, 11-year moving average analysis has been employed to eliminate short-term fluctuations and for better delineation of the long-term trends for the seasonal monsoon rainfall. The epochs of the long-term fluctuations are identified for the lowest minimum and highest maximum points and the trends between these points are examined. This analysis of the rainfall time series of the 30 subdivisions and all India reveals that increasing and decreasing trends do occur with trend reversal. [13] The overall tendencies of summer monsoon rainfall over India are evaluated for the global warming period ( ). These tendencies are compared with the long-term ( ) tendencies. [14] The application of the gamma function was suggested by Barger and Thom [1949] and since then has been adapted to precipitation data sets by various researchers. This model is most suitable for fitting the monthly rainfall amounts over India [Mooley, 1973]. In the recent past this is also used for daily rainfall amounts over India [May, 2004]. The gamma function can give good fit to precipitation climatological series [Mitchell et al., 1966]. It is most suitable for arid regions. It consists of two parameters, a and b, where a is the shape parameter and b is the scale parameter [Wilks, 2006]. The sample statistic is D ¼ ln x 1 X n lnðx i Þ n i¼1 [15] The estimator for the shape parameter (a) is ^a ¼ 1 þ p ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 1 þ 4D=3 ; 4D ð2þ after which the scale parameter (b) is obtained from ^b ¼ x ^a : Here a and b parameters are calculated for the monthly and seasonal (June, July, August, September) rainfall amounts over 30 meteorological subdivisions of India. [16] Further, the meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients (SST of E, 5 25 N minus SST of E, 20 S equator) for summer monsoon season (June through September) has been calculated for the period The SST has been taken from the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre data set. Pant and Parthasarathy [1981] suggested Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during March through May as a predictor to summer monsoon rainfall over India. The authors wish to see the tendency of SOI for the period The SOI values during March through May for the period are taken from the Web site of the Bureau of Australian Meteorology. The tendencies of the two parameters are studied in connection with summer monsoon rainfall over India. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1. Long-Term Trends in Summer Monsoon Rainfall Summer Monsoon Season (June September) [17] The significant trend lines for four subdivisions (Figure 2) and the trend values (millimeters per decade) of summer monsoon rainfall over 30 subdivisions for the period are presented here (Figure 3). The positive trend (7.3 mm/decade) over Punjab (14) is significant at 5% level (Figures 2 and 3). The positive trends are high over coastal Karnataka (32) (16.3 mm/decade), Konkan and Goa (23) (14 mm/decade), and over an isolated region, Gangetic West Bengal (6) (6.2 mm/decade). Further, the trend is positive over Haryana (13) and west Rajasthan (17) (northwest India) and over a major part of south peninsular India (coastal Andhra Pradesh (28), Telangana (29), Rayalaseema (30), north interior Karnataka (33), and south interior Karnataka (34)). The remaining subdivisions experience decreasing tendencies. The negative trend is dominant over the divisions particularly north of 20 N. Highest negative trends are over Kerala (35) (12.9 mm/ decade). The decreasing trends of summer monsoon rainfall are significant over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4); east Madhya Pradesh (20); and Chattisgarh (27) at 1%, 5%, and 1% level, respectively, and their corresponding trend values are 10.6 mm/decade, 8 mm/decade, and 12.5 mm/decade. The all-india summer monsoon rainfall shows a negligible negative trend value of 4 mm/decade June [18] Generally, the summer monsoon touches the southern tip of India by 1 June and touches the northwestern parts of India by 15 July. The pattern of trend values in June is somewhat different from that of June September (Figure 4). The highest positive trends are present over coastal Karnataka (32) (6.39 mm/decade) and Konkan and Goa (23) (3.05 mm/decade). Further, the subdivisions, namely, coastal Andhra Pradesh (28); Rayalaseema (30); Telangana (29); north interior Karnataka (33); Madhya Maharashtra (24); Saurashtra, Kutch, and Diu (22); Gujarat (21); west 3of16

4 Figure 2. Time series of summer monsoon (June, July, August, September) rainfall of subdivisions (subdivision number is shown in brackets) showing significant trends (trend line is demarcated with thick sold line). Rajasthan (17); Punjab (14); and Haryana (13), experience positive tendency. The rest of the subdivisions experience decreasing trends. The high and significant values of negative trends are present over Kerala (35) (9.45 mm/decade), sub- Himalayan West Bengal (5) (6.38 mm/decade), east Madhya Pradesh (20) (3.85 mm/decade), and west Madhya Pradesh (19) (3.24 mm/decade). When compared to positive trends, the negative trends are dominant. Both negative trends and positive trends exhibit spatial coherence July [19] During July the monsoon rainfall is more or less uniform over the entire country. It is a principal rainy month over India. The significant values of positive trend are observed over sub-himalayan West Bengal (5) (7.5 mm/ decade) and Punjab (14) (3.3 mm/decade). All subdivisions of the east coast except Orissa and some over the west coast (Konkan and Goa (23) and Coastal Karnataka (32)), Telangana (29), Rayalaseema (30), Marathwada (25), parts of NE/CNE India (Assam and Meghalaya (3) and Bihar (9)), and parts of northwest India (west Rajasthan (17) and Haryana (13)) experience positive trends (Figure 4). The rest of the meteorological subdivisions show negative trends. The significant negative trend values are noted over east Madhya Pradesh (20), Chattisgarh (27) (about 6 mm/decade), and 4of16

5 Figure 3. Trend values (millimeters per decade) of summer monsoon rainfall for the period Vidarbha (28) (4.1 mm/decade). The pattern of trends also reveals the spatial coherence of the positive and negative trends. The negative trend over Kerala (35) also continued in the month of July. Over sub-himalayan West Bengal (5), the negative trend in June is reversed in July. In the most parts of the monsoon core region, the negative trend exists in the month of July also. The positive trend over northwestern parts and Andhra Pradesh (composed of three subdivisions (28, 29, and 30)) continues in July also. The pattern of (1) increasing tendency of rainfall over northeast India and Tamil Nadu (31) and (2) decreasing tendency of rainfall over the most parts of the monsoon core region pinpoints the increasing tendency of the weak monsoon conditions over India August [20] In this month, the positive trends (Figure 4) are dominant. The significant negative trends are present over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4) (5.5 mm/ decade); Assam and Meghalaya (3) (4.1 mm/decade); and Tamil Nadu (31) (1.5 mm/decade). Further, the negative trends are present over sub-himalayan West Bengal (5), Bihar (9), Jharkhand (8), Chattisgarh (27), east Uttar Pradesh (10), and east and west Rajasthan (18 and 17). Remaining subdivisions experience positive tendency. The positive trends are statistically significant at more than 10% level over coastal Karnataka (32) (11.2 mm/decade), Konkan and Goa (23) (10.3 mm/decade), north interior Karnataka (33) (1.5 mm/decade), Telangana (29) (3.1 mm/decade), Madhya Maharashtra (24) (1.9 mm/decade), Vidarbha (26) (4.2 mm/decade), west Madhya Pradesh (19) (4.2 mm/ decade), and Haryana (13) (4 mm/decade). Generally, the month of August is more susceptible to break monsoon conditions. In the break monsoon situation, more amount of rainfall will be recorded over northeastern parts of country and northeast monsoon region (Tamil Nadu (31)). Here, the general pattern is reversed. The monsoon core region shows increasing tendency of rainfall. The pattern obtained in this month shows an increase of active monsoon conditions over India in the month of August September [21] By the first week of September the monsoon retreats from northwestern parts of the country. In September, most of the subdivisions show decreasing tendency in rainfall (Figure 4). However, feeble positive trends are present over Saurashtra, Kutch, and Diu (22); Kerala (35); Tamil Nadu (31); south interior Karnataka (34); coastal Andhra Pradesh (28); Jharkhand (8); west Uttar Pradesh (11); east Uttar Pradesh (10); and Punjab (14). The significant positive trend is present over Gangetic West Bengal (6) (5.1 mm/decade). The remaining subdivisions including monsoon core region experience negative trends. The highest and significant negative trends are present over Vidarbha (26) (4.9 mm/ decade), Marathwada (25) (4.4 mm/decade), and Telangana (29) (3.4 mm/decade). [22] Except in the month of August, the overall tendencies over the most of the subdivisions are not satisfying and they contribute negative tendencies to Indian summer monsoon rainfall. However, if we see the tendency during the whole season, most of the subdivisions north of 20 N are contributing negative tendencies and subdivisions south of 20 N are contributing positive tendencies. These opposite tendencies cancel each other causing no significant tendency to the all-india summer monsoon rainfall Eleven-Year Running Averages of Summer Monsoon Rainfall [23] Time series of 11-year running averages of summer monsoon rainfall over only four subdivisions are shown in Figure 5. For the remaining subdivisions the time series are not shown here, but the results are given. In the case of Assam and Meghalaya (3), there is a sharp decrease in rainfall during and an increasing tendency during and thereafter there is a decreasing trend. Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4) showed a gradual and statistically significant decrease between 1879 and 1928 and a quick and significant decrease between 1951 and 1982 with an increasing tendency in the intervening period. The increasing trend for the period is significant. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal (5) depicted a clear positive trend for the period and then significant negative tendency up to The positive trend continues since Gangetic West Bengal (6) shows a gradual increasing tendency during and with a sharp decrease in the rainfall in intervening period. The Orissa (7) rainfall shows the fluctuating nature. However, it shows a gradual and significant decrease during and a quick decrease during In the case of Jharkhand (8) the rainfall is fluctuating. However, the highest amounts around 1921 and the lowest amounts around 1984 are observed. The increasing trend for the period is significant. Rainfall over Bihar (9) subdivision is fluctuating. However, the highest amounts and lowest amounts occurred around 1917 and 1963, respectively. [24] In the case of east Uttar Pradesh (10), the rainfall is fluctuating. It is highest during 1890s and lowest during 1880s. But west Uttar Pradesh (11) shows systematic alternating trends, decreasing tendency during (significant) and with an intervening positive trend. [25] Haryana (13) showed a sharp decreasing trend in rainfall during and then there is an increase in 5of16

6 Figure 4. Trend values (millimeters per decade) of rainfall in monsoon months for the period rainfall. Punjab (14) showed a significant increase for the period and a sharp significant decrease for The rainfall of west Rajasthan (17) showed fluctuations. However, around 1900 the rainfall is at a minimum. While east Rajasthan (18) showed systematic alternating trends with decreasing tendencies during and (significant) and a significant positive trend in the intervening period, west Madhya Pradesh (19) also follows the pattern of alternating trends. Two significant decreasing trends existed during and The significant positive tendency is observed during In east Madhya Pradesh (20), significant decreasing tendency is present during and There is a sharp increase during [26] Gujarat (21) shows negative trend during and In the intervening period a significant positive trend exists. Saurashtra, Kutch, and Diu (22) rainfall reveals fluctuations. However, the tendencies are positive 6of16

7 Figure 5. The 11-year running averages of summer monsoon (June, July, August, September) rainfall (subdivision number is shown in brackets). and negative for the periods and , respectively. [27] The significant increasing tendency in the rainfall is clearer in the period for Konkan and Goa (23). The decreasing tendency is seen during and and the latter is significant. For Madhya Maharashtra (24), peak amounts of rainfall occurred around 1878 and the lowest amounts of rainfall around 1922 and the trend between these two is significant. After 1922, the monsoon rainfall fluctuated. For Marathwada (25), decreasing and increasing tendencies exist for the period and , respectively. The latter is significant. Vidarbha (26) rainfall shows two extreme positive epochs which exist around 1887 and 1937 and below normal around 1923 and in the recent years. The positive tendency for and is significant. The decreasing tendency since 1937 is significant. Chattisgarh (27) shows systematic increasing ( and ) and significant decreasing trends ( and ). The latter increasing trend is significant. [28] Coastal Andhra Pradesh (28), Rayalaseema (30), and Telangana (29) showed fluctuations. However, Telangana (29) reveals significant increasing tendencies during and and significant decreasing tendencies during and Rayalaseema (30) showed the lowest amounts of rainfall around In the recent years Telangana (29), Rayalaseema (30), and coastal Andhra Pradesh (28) received lowest, high, and normal amounts of rainfall, respectively. In Tamil Nadu (31), an increasing tendency exists during and and significant decreasing tendency exists during The overall tendency of the coastal Karnataka (32) is positive. However, it shows a minimum around North interior Karnataka (33) showed two decreasing trends during and (significant) with the intervening significant increasing trend. South interior Karnataka (34) showed positive trends in the beginning ( ) and during and decreasing trends during and The highest amounts are reported around 1893 and 1993 and the lowest amounts are reported 7of16

8 Figure 6. Trend values (millimeters per decade) of summer monsoon rainfall for the period around 1871, 1923, and in recent years. Kerala (35) showed significant decreasing trends for the periods and However, the lowest amounts are reported around 1895 and in recent years, highest amounts are reported around 1924, and a significant trend exists for [29] All-India monsoon rainfall has no significant longterm tendency. But the 11-year running averages show systematic alternating trends in different segments of the time series (figure not shown). Peak amounts of rainfall occurred around The same conditions are repeated around The lowest amounts occurred around The two significant decreasing trends exist, one during and another during In the intervening period, a gradual significant increasing trend exists. In the recent past years, the rainfall amounts in general precede the normal. [30] Most of the subdivisions lying north and south of 20 N received the lowest amounts of rainfall in between the years and , respectively. In the latter case, the lowest rainfall is seen clearly in the early 1920s. It is quite interesting to point out that there is a climatic change in the rainfall during late 1890s to early 1920s and the northern parts of the country experienced this change about 2.5 decades earlier than southern parts Trends in Summer Monsoon Rainfall During the Global Warming Era [31] Since the 1970s, the Earth has experienced warming due to a rise of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. It certainly influences summer monsoon rainfall activity over India. So the trends in monsoon months and monsoon season for the period are examined Monsoon Season [32] During , 20 subdivisions showed negative tendencies (Figure 6), with significant declines over Kerala (35), coastal Karnataka (32), east Rajasthan (18), and west Madhya Pradesh (19). This pattern of rainfall tendencies suggests a weakening of monsoon activity over India. The overall tendency of summer monsoon rainfall is positive and significant over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4). The insignificant positive tendencies are observed over sub-himalayan West Bengal (5), Gangetic West Bengal (6), Orissa (7), coastal Andhra Pradesh (28), Rayalaseema (30), east Madhya Pradesh (20), west Uttar Pradesh (11), Gujarat (21), and Madhya Maharashtra (24). There are east-west trend differences. Particularly over northeast India the trend is in general positive. Monsoon rainfall over northeast India is in opposite phase with the major part of Indian subcontinent [Subbaramayya and Naidu, 1992] June [33] In June, the negative trends are insignificant for the period (Figure 7) and confined to three isolated areas, parts of northeast India (Assam and Meghalaya (3) and Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram (4)), subdivisions around 16 N latitude (coastal Andhra Pradesh (28), Telangana (29), north interior Karnataka (33), and Konkan and Goa (23)) and east Rajasthan (18). Positive tendencies are dominant and present over 23 subdivisions. These positive tendencies are significant over Madhya Maharashtra (19.4 mm/decade) and Haryana (11.8 mm/decade). The trend pattern in June during global warming era is different from that of the long-term ( ). Particularly, the significant negative trends obtained in the long-term over Kerala (35), west Madhya Pradesh (19), east Madhya Pradesh (20), and sub-himalayan West Bengal (5) are turned into positive trends during global warming period. The positive trends over Madhya Maharashtra (24) and Haryana (13) are strengthened in the global warming era. Coastal Andhra Pradesh (28), Telangana (29), north interior Karnataka (33), and Konkan and Goa (23) deviated from the long-term positive tendencies. Similarly, Kerala (35), south interior Karnataka (34), Marathwada (25), Vidarbha (26), east Madhya Pradesh (20), west Madhya Pradesh (19), Chattisgarh (27), Orissa (7), west Uttar Pradesh (11), east Uttar Pradesh (10), Bihar (9), Jharkhand (8), sub-himalayan West Bengal (5), and Gangetic West Bengal (6) are deviating from their long-term negative tendencies July [34] There are differences between the trend patterns of long-term and global warming era, (Figure 7). Declining trends are dominant over 18 subdivisions. Positive trend is significant over Marathwada (25). The meteorological subdivisions deviating from the long-term positive trends are Tamil Nadu (31), coastal Andhra Pradesh (28), Telangana (29), coastal Karnataka (32), Konkan and Goa (23), west Rajasthan (17), Punjab (14), Haryana (13), Bihar (9), and Assam and Meghalaya (3). Subdivisions deviating from the long-term negative tendencies are Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4); south interior Karnataka (34); Vidarbha (26); Gujarath (21); Saurashtra and Kutch (22); and west Uttar Pradesh (11) August [35] During , positive trends are present over only eight subdivisions (Assam and Meghalaya (3); Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4); sub-himalayan West Bengal (5); Bihar (9); Rayalaseema (30); south interior Karnataka (34); north interior Karnataka (33); and Madhya 8of16

9 Figure 7. Trend values (millimeters per decade) of rainfall in monsoon months for the period Maharashtra (24)) (Figure 7). Negative trends are dominant over 22 subdivisions and significant over Kerala (35), coastal Karnataka (32), east Madhya Pradesh (20), west Madhya Pradesh (19), east Rajasthan (18), west Rajasthan (17), and Punjab (14). West coast of India showed negative tendencies instead of long-term positive tendencies. Further, the tendencies over Marathwada (25), Vidarbha (26), west Madhya Pradesh (19), Gujarath (21), Konkan and Goa (23), east Madhya Pradesh (20), Orissa (7), Gangetic West Bengal (6), west Uttar Pradesh (11), Punjab (14), and Haryana (13) differ from the existence of long-term positive tendencies. The tendencies over Assam and Meghalaya (3); sub- Himalayan West Bengal (5); Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4); and Bihar (9) differ from the long-term negative tendencies. In the global warming era, the overall tendencies of rainfall in August are not encouraging. Only northeastern parts and central parts of south peninsular India show the increasing trends. 9of16

10 Figure 8. Time series of (a) 11-year averages of normalized values of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (March, April, May) and All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ASMR) (June, July, August, September). (b) Normalized values of SOI and ASMR. (c) Same as Figure 8a but for meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. (d) Same as Figure 8b but for SST gradient September [36] Significant negative tendencies are observed in the warming period ( ) over Bihar, Jharkhand, and south interior Karnataka (Figure 7). The positive tendency is significant over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4). Further insignificant positive tendencies are observed over Assam and Meghalaya (3), sub-himalayan West Bengal (5), west Uttar Pradesh (11), Haryana (13), east Madhya Pradesh (20), Orissa (7), Vidarbha (26), Marathwada (25), and coastal Andhra Pradesh (28). The remaining 20 subdivisions showed negative tendencies. The subdivisions that showed positive tendencies recently but long-term negative tendencies are Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4); Assam and Meghalaya (3); sub-himalayan West Bengal (5); Orissa (7); east Madhya Pradesh (20); Vidarbha (26); Marathwada (25); and Haryana (13). The subdivisions that showed negative tendencies in global warming period but long-term positive tendencies are Punjab (14), Gangetic West Bengal (6), Jharkhand (8), Tamil Nadu (31), south interior Karnataka (34), and Saurashtra and Kutch (22) Trends and Relationships With the SOI and Indian Ocean SST Gradients [37] The 11-year running averages and actual values of SOI during March through May (Figures 8a and 8b) and All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ASMR) showed 10 of 16

11 Figure 9. Gamma distribution (scale (b) and shape (a) parameters) of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall for the periods (left) and (right) Values of b are given in brackets. decreasing tendency. The decreasing tendency of the SOI, i.e., weakening of the southern oscillation, is one of the factors that inhibits summer monsoon rainfall activity over India [Mooley et al., 1985]. The 11-year running averages and actual values of the meridional SST gradient (SST of E, 5 25 N minus SST of E, 20 S equator) (Figures 8c and 8d) in summer monsoon season (June, July, August, September) showed a decreasing tendency during The declining of the meridional SST gradient can weaken the monsoon circulation. This reduces the moisture transport to the Indian mainland and inhibits the rainfall activity over India. This observation supports the results of Chung and Ramanathan [2006]. The weakening meridional SST gradient is associated the declining summer monsoon rainfall trends during [38] Rao et al. [2004] reported that a decrease in the strength of Tropical Easterly jet stream leads to decrease of number of tropical cyclonic systems. According to C. V. Naidu et al. (Variations of Indian summer monsoon rainfall induce the weakening of easterly jet stream in the warming environment?, submitted to Global and Planetary Change, 2009) (a paper communicated to GPC), in recent years ( ) monsoon activity is poor and it is observed that the presence of weak easterly jet stream is an important feature. Intensified jet is reported in the case of good monsoon activity during This is an evidence for weakening of summer monsoons over India. During monsoon season, the tropical cyclonic storm activity over north Indian Ocean has been enhanced in recent years. The stronger warming of tropical northern Indian Ocean during recent years drove reduced vertical wind shear over the northern Indian Ocean in the summer monsoon season and is thus responsible for the intensified cyclonic activity observed [Elsner et al., 2008; Muni Krishna, 2009]. This enhanced activity of cyclonic systems is responsible for the increasing tendencies of rainfall activity in June during global warming era. In the past, Bhaskar Rao et al. [2001] reported that the decreasing tendency in all cyclonic systems after 1970s is coinciding with the observation of global warming and climate change during the past 3 decades. The observed decrease in the rainfall in the present study is agreeing with these results. 4. Gamma Distribution [39] The shape (a) and scale (b) parameters for whole summer monsoon season (June, July, August, September) for the above periods are given in Figure 9. These parameters in the individual monsoon months for the periods and are shown in Figure 10 and Figure 11, respectively. The values of a and b (indicated in the bracket) of each subdivision are depicted in the corresponding location of the subdivision Monsoon Season [40] During summer monsoon season (June, July, August, September), b parameter is low over west coast (Kerala, 35; coastal Karnataka, 32; Konkan and Goa, 23), north interior Karnataka (33), west Rajasthan (17), east Rajasthan (18), west Madhya Pradesh (19), east Madhya Pradesh (20), Chattisgarh (27), Rayalaseema (30), west Uttar Pradesh (11), east Uttar Pradesh (10), and Madhya Maharashtra (24) and high over the rest of the subdivisions in global warming era when compared to that of long period, while Vidarbha (26) showed the same value in both the periods (Figure 9). 11 of 16

12 Figure 10. Gamma distribution (scale (b) and shape (a) parameters) of summer monsoon rainfall in different months during Values of b are given in brackets June [41] The scale parameter in June is relatively low during the global warming era ( ) over 19 meteorological subdivisions when compared to that of the long period ( ). Over south peninsular India, northeast India, Marathwada (25), and Gujarath (21), the b parameter in global warming era is similar to or more than that of The shape parameter (a) is high over northeast India and west coast of India, where the mean rainfall amounts are high (Figures 10 and 11) July [42] The distribution pattern of b parameter is different from that of June (Figures 10 and 11). It is relatively high over 17 subdivisions and low over west coast, Tamil Nadu (31), north interior Karnataka (33), Madhya Maharashtra 12 of 16

13 Figure 11. Gamma distribution (scale (b) and shape (a) parameters) of summer monsoon rainfall in different months during Values of b are given in brackets. (24), Chattisgarh (27), east Uttar Pradesh (10), Jharkhand (8), sub-himalayan West Bengal (5), and Gangetic West Bengal (6) during the global warming era when compared to that of long period ( ) August [43] Nineteen meteorological subdivisions showed low values of b parameter during when compared to that of long period ( ). It is same for both the periods over Marathwada (25), Orissa (7), and Assam and Meghalaya (3). The shape parameter is high over northeast India in both the periods (Figures 10 and 11) September [44] Twelve subdivisions showed relatively low values of b parameter during and relatively high values 13 of 16

14 Figure 12. Time series of trend values for 36-year sliding window during summer monsoon season (June, July, August, September). during when both the periods are compared. It is same over Assam and Meghalaya (3), east Madhya Pradesh (20), Vidarbha (26), and Tamil Nadu (31) during the above two periods. It is high over the rest of India in global warming era (Figures 10 and 11). [45] The spatial distribution of scale parameter (b) of gamma distribution is similar to that of the mean rainfall distribution in almost all months of summer monsoon season and monsoon season also. In general, the a parameter is high over northeast India and west coast of India The 36-Year Sliding Window Trends [46] The long time series by generating a population of historic trend values for 36-year sliding window were examined. The times series of these trends show decadal climatic variability. For example the diagram of four selected meteorological subdivisions is given in Figure 12. [47] For the subdivision Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4), in the beginning the trend is negative and increases with time. It reaches maximum (about 6 mm y 1 ) around Then, it starts decreasing and reaches minimum value ( 10 mm y 1 ) around Thereafter it increases with time. In the case of Punjab (14), the trend value at the beginning is negative, but it reaches peak value about 7mmy 1 around Thereafter it decreases with time. For east Madhya Pradesh (20), in the beginning a large negative trend existed. It increases with time and reaches maximum value around Then it starts decreasing and reaches minimum value around Thereafter, the trend is rising. The trend shows fluctuating nature in case of Chattisgarh (27) and reaches high negative around [48] By examining the time series of the sliding trends, the recent changes occurred are considered for estimating the trend values for the period Almost all trend values of different subdivisions in the recent years with varying starting years follow the near linearity. Therefore by using linear regression the tendency is estimated for the global warming era Actual and estimated 14 of 16

15 Table 1. Actual and Estimated Trend Values for the Period Over the 30 Meteorological Subdivisions a Subdivision A (mm yr 1 ) E (mm yr 1 ) Error (E A) a Here A is actual trend values and E is estimated trend values. values are shown in Table 1. Most of the estimated values are nearer to the actual values. 5. Conclusions [49] From the foregoing it is clear that meteorological subdivisions of India are demarcated by 20 N latitude, with the regions south of it showing an increasing trend, while most of the subdivisions to its north showing decreasing trends. These two areas balance the trends each other and contribute no visible trend when averaged to get the all-india monsoon rainfall. [50] During late 1870s and early 1890s, most of the subdivisions in India exhibited active monsoon conditions. Bihar (9), west Uttar Pradesh (11), Haryana (13), the west central parts of the country, Telangana (29) and north interior Karnataka (33) had peak monsoon conditions during Also, Assam and Meghalaya (3) and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura (4) show the same conditions somewhat earlier (1950 and 1951). During most of subdivisions over north India and Konkan and Goa (23) experienced lowest amounts of rainfall. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal (5) and Assam and Meghalaya (3) showed least amounts of rainfall around Saurashtra, Kutch, and Diu (22); Vidarbha (26); Marathwada (25); Madhya Maharashtra (24); north interior Karnataka (33); south interior Karnataka (34); and Rayalaseema (30) showed lowest amounts of rainfall around , while coastal Karnataka (32) and Tamil Nadu (31) had dry conditions around 1916 and 1930, respectively. [51] The decreasing tendency in summer monsoon rainfall in the global warming era ( ) is associated to the weakening of easterly jet stream, weakening of the southern oscillation, more warming of equatorial Indian Ocean than northern latitudes of the tropics, weakening of the meridional SST gradient from the equatorial region to the south Asian coast during summer, and decreasing tendency in the occurrence of cyclonic systems over north Indian Ocean [Muni Krishna, 2009; Rao et al., 2004; Chung and Ramanathan, 2006; Bhaskar Rao et al., 2001]. [52] The gamma distribution is suitable for characterizing the time series of monthly rainfall during the summer monsoon season by scale and shape parameters. The spatial distribution of scale parameter is very much similar to the climatological mean precipitation. [53] Acknowledgments. The authors are thankful to the editor and the referees for their constructive comments to improve the manuscript. The first author is thankful to Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India for providing financial assistance under Starter Research Grant. References Agarwal, K. S. (1952), Fluctuations of annual rainfall in central India ( ), Indian J. Meteorol. Geophys., 3, Alvi, S. M. A., and P. Koteswaram (1985), Time series analysis of annual rainfall over India, Mausam, 36, Barger, G. L., and H. C. S. Thom (1949), Evaluation of drought hazard, Agron. J., 41, Bhaskar Rao, D. V., C. V. Naidu, and B. R. S. Rao (2001), Trends and fluctuations of the cyclonic systems over north Indian Ocean, Mausam, 52(1), Chung, C. E., and V. Ramanathan (2006), Weakening of north Indian SST gradients and the monsoon rainfall in India and the Sahel, J. Clim., 19, , doi: /jcli Elsner, J. B., J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger (2008), The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature, 455, Guhathakurta, P., and M. Rajeevan (2008), Trends in the rainfall pattern over India, Int. J. Climatol., 28, , doi: /joc Koteswaram, P., and S. M. A. Alvi (1969), Trends and periodicities in rainfall at west coast stations in India, Curr. Sci., 38, Krishnan, A. (1984), An analysis of trends in the rainfall and droughts occurring in the southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon systems in southern peninsular India, Mausam, 35, May, W. (2004), Variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon in the period , Global Planet. Change, 44, , doi: /j.gloplacha Mitchell, J. M., Jr., B. Dzerdzeevskii, H. Flohn, W. L. Hofmeyr, H. H. Lamb, K. N. Rao, and C. C. Wallen (1966), Climatic change, Tech. Note 79, World Meteorol. Organ., Geneva, Switzerland. Mooley, D. A. (1973), Gamma distribution probability model for Asian summer monsoon monthly rainfall, Mon. Weather Rev., 101(2), , doi: / (1973)101<0160:gdpmfa>2.3.co;2. Mooley, D. A., B. Parthasarathy, and N. A. Sontakke (1985), Relationship between all-india summer monsoon rainfall and southern oscillation/ eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 94(3), Muni Krishna, K. (2009), Intensifying tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon Global warming, Global Planet. Change, 65, 12 16, doi: /j.gloplacha Naidu, C. V., B. R. Srinivasa Rao, and D. V. Bhaskar Rao (1999), Climatic trends and periodicities of annual rainfall over India, Meteorol. Appl., 6, , doi: /s Pant, G. B., and B. Parthasarathy (1981), Some aspects of an association between the southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 29, , doi: /bf Parthasarathy, B., and O. N. Dhar (1974), Secular variations of regional rainfall over India, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 100, , doi: / qj Parthasarathy, B., and D. A. Mooley (1978), Some features of a long homogeneous series of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Mon. Weather Rev., 106, , doi: / (1978)106<0771: SFOALH>2.0.CO;2. Parthasarathy, B., A. A. Munot, and D. R. Kothawale (1995), Monthly and seasonal rainfall series for all India, homogeneous regions and meteorolo- 15 of 16

16 gical subdivisions: , Res. Rep. RR-065, Indian Inst. of Trop. Meteorol., Pune, India. Pramanik, S. K., and P. Jagannathan (1953), Climate change in India I: Rainfall, Indian J. Meteorol. Geophys., 4, Rao, B. R. S., D. V. B. Rao, and V. B. Rao (2004), Decreasing trend in the strength of Tropical Easterly Jet during the Asian summer monsoon season and the number of tropical cyclonic systems over Bay of Bengal, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L14103, doi: /2004gl Rao, K. N., and P. Jagannathan (1963), Climate change in India, in Proceedings of the Symposium on Changes in Climate, pp , World Health Organ., Rome. Rupakumar, K., G. B. Pant, B. Parthasarathy, and N. A. Sontakke (1992), Spatial and sub-seasonal patterns of the long-term trends of Indian summer monsoon rainfall, Int. J. Climatol., 12, , doi: / joc Singh, N., N. A. Sontakke, H. N. Singh, and A. K. Pandey (2005), Recent trend in spatio-temporal variation of rainfall over India An investigation into basin-scale rainfall fluctuation, IAHS AISH Publ., 296, Soman, M. K., K. Krishnakumar, and N. Singh (1988), Decreasing trend in the rainfall of Kerala, Curr. Sci., 57, Sontakke, N. A., N. Singh, and H. N. Singh (2008), Instrumental period rainfall series of the Indian region [AD ]: Revised reconstruction, update and analysis, Holocene, 18(7), , doi: / Srivatsava, H. N., B. N. Dewan, S. K. Dikshit, G. S. Prakasa Rao, S. S. Singh, and K. R. Rao (1992), Decadal trends in climate over India, Mausam, 43, Subbaramayya, I., and C. V. Naidu (1992), Spatial variations and trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall, Int. J. Climatol., 12, , doi: / joc Thapliyal, V., and S. M. Kulshrestha (1991), Climate changes and trends over India, Mausam, 42, Wilks, D. S. (2006), Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2nd ed., Elsevier, New York. Winstanley, D. (1973), Recent rainfall trends in Africa, the Middle East and India, Nature, 243, , doi: /243464a0. Zveryaev, I. I., and M. P. Aleksandrova (2004), Differences in rainfall variability in the south and southeast Asian summer monsoon, Int. J. Climatol., 24(9), , doi: /joc K. Durgalakshmi, P. Lakshminarayana, L. Malleswara Rao, K. Muni Krishna, C. V. Naidu, S. Ramalingeswara Rao, and G. C. Satyanarayana, Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam , India. (durgalakshmi.2008@gmail.com) 16 of 16

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