Oil and Gas Transportation In the CIS & Caspian Region
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1 Oil and Gas Transportation In the CIS & Caspian Region Mr. Christof van Agt IEA Office of Non-Member Countries Europe, Middle East, Africa The Energy Exchange Ltd October 2003 Vienna, Austria
2 Oil and Gas Transportation In the CIS & Caspian Region (presentation overview) About the IEA Relations with Non Member Countries Global Oil and Gas market outlook Key themes Dominant trends Concluding remarks
3 Members Australia (1979) Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic (2001) Denmark Finland (1992) France (1992) Germany Greece (1977) Hungary (1997) Ireland Italy (1978) Japan Korea (2001) Luxembourg Norway participates in the Agency under a special Agreement Sweden The Netherlands New Zealand (1977) Portugal (1981) Spain Switzerland Turkey (1981) United Kingdom United States EC
4 Main Objectives Security of Supply Emergency Oil Stock Potential Relations with Producing Countries Rational Energy policies Independent Country Reviews Biannual Ministerial Meetings Transparent Information and Data Systems Monthly Oil Market Report Statistics, Balances, Joint Oil Data Exercise
5 Office of Non Member Countries Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia and South America Security of Supply: Producer-Consumer dialogue (many levels); developments in OPEC & non-opec producing regions Energy Policy & Regulatory Reform: Energy sector restructuring underway in many countries Energy policy reviews Energy Efficiency & Technology: Crucial for NMCs to meet growing energy demands Committee on Non-Member Countries: Presentations by Ministers and NOC Presidents Reports & Analysis of Oil and Gas Market development
6 Caspian & Central Asian Countries On going debate and analysis High-Level Roundtables (Paris 2002, Florence 2003, Almaty 2004) with Governments Industry IOC s International Institutions On IEA Themes Upstream Potential Policy and Governance Transport and Infrastructure Investment Taxation and Commercial Climate
7 Outlook Next decade Global (Producer-Consumers) Diversity of supply improves Oil price slides into competitive price band Different market doctrines? OECD + EU Accession Countries (market integration) Competition in deregulated energy consuming market economies FSU + Producing Countries (market transition) Concentration in energy producing transition and developing economies
8 Emerging Market Development (CIS + Producing Countries) Characteristics : Policy & Governance Investment & Commercial Climate Transport & Infrastructure Legal Issues Short term needs Revenue Management State driven Investment Sector Development Share holder access Dedicated infrastructure Contract Law & Stability Arbitration & Enforcement
9 Mature Market Development OECD, + EU Accession Countries Policy&Governance Investment &CommercialClimate Transport &Infrastructure LegalIssues Longtermvision Fiscal Stability Price signal driveninvestment Economicdiversification Thirdpartyaccess Interconnection Framework law Regulation&Compliance
10 CASPIAN MARKET DEVELOPMENT More pipe or more market?
11 Schematic overview CIS & Caspian Landlocked in Multilateral Market Relations Atlantic Ocean Baltic Baltic Sea Belarus Ukraine Europe Turkey Black Sea Georgia Armenia Mediterranean Net Consumers Net Producers Russia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Iran Bering Sea Mongolia Kyrgyzstan Tadjikstan Afghanistan Persian Gulf North America North Pacific Japan China Korea India Pakistan (Suez) South Pacific
12 Market Incentives of Net Producers Energy Producers & Traders: Guard market access of new entrants Central Asia Caspian Sub Saharan Africa Substitute production with Greenfield development Financing requirements Technological challenges Co-opt resources and pool E&P risk OPEC Gas-alliance Joint Development Consortia Secure traditional trade relations & markets Destination Clauses Long-Term Contracts Cross Border Share Holdings
13 Market Incentives of Net Consumers Energy Consumers & Traders: Facilitate market access for new entrants Diversity of supply BTC, CPC, Trans-Caspian Trans Afghan, Daqing vs Nakhodka Chad Cameroon, West African Gas Pipeline Secure service of supply Competition policies Transparency Innovation Optimise resource consumption Network Interconnections Storage, Trading Hubs Exchanges, Spot Markets Allow for expanding trade relations Renegotiation clauses Short-Term Contracts Mutual Share Holdings
14 Bilateral Producer Traders Uzbekistan Multilateral WTO ECT Market Traders Bilateral Consumer Trader CIS & Caspian subject to Wider World Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Iran Russia OPEC Members Kyrgyzstan Tadhikstan China India IEA OECD EU
15 Trend Co-opt Central Asian Volumes?
16 Chart 1. Production Curves for Urengoy, Mdevezhe and Yamburg Gas Fields Annual Production, Billion cu m Medvezhye Urengoyskoye Yamburgskoye Poly. (Medvezhye) Poly. (Urengoyskoye) Poly. (Yamburgskoye) Years of development
17 Russian Natural Gas Production TotalCallonProduction Gazprom Production
18 Gazprom & Turkmenneftegaz Gas Sector Co-operation operation (10 April December 2028) Gas supply Delivery at border E&P on PSA basis On Caspian Shelf Joint projects Infrastructure investment Unified operation rules Energy efficiency R&D New pipeline development Information exchange Implementation Ministerial oversight Dispute Consultation Five year opt out provision Volume
19 Gazprom & Uzbekneftegaz Gas Sector Co-operation operation (Strategic alliance December 2002) Agreed E&P on PSA Basis Equipment and Technology Close to signature Interstate Agreement Gas Sales Agreement Agreed Announced
20 Gazprom & KazMunaiGaz Gas Sector Co-operation operation (Interstate of 28 November 2001) KazRosGaz June 2002 Market Kazakh Gas Karachaganak supply Treatment at Orenburg Delivery to Gazprom Marketed in CIS and Europe Volume at 4 BCM
21 New Routes or Market Reform Which provides most comfort to shared markets?
22 Oil & Gas Transport in CIS & Caspian Concluding Remarks Overall Market Direction Depends on Wider World Volume: Russian and other production Oil: CIS Caspian price taker or price maker? Gas: Gazprom exposed to new supply and LNG Market Reform: Russia Delay in applying disciplines boosts viability of alternative routes New Demand: China, Japan, Korea, Pakistan, India in the game: Not resource potential, market size & market discipline decides (Swap volume with Russia or choose new Routes?) Governance: Means Good business Reflects on shareholder value, will sharpen competitive edge `
23 THANK YOU Christof van Agt Office of Non-Member Countries Countries of the Caspian Sea and Central Asia 9, rue de la Fédération Paris Cedex 15 Tel.: 33 (0) Fax.: 33 (0)
24 Acknowledgements Graphic materials used on slides derived from 1: 14: 15, 16, 17: IEA Russian Energy Review 18, 19, 20: Gazinvest 21: Asian Development Bank 22:
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