Sweden in the light of the global financial melt-down
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- Wilfrid Morton
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1 Peter Malmqvist Sweden in the light of the global financial melt-down Earnings development The banking crises The real estate crash Economic trends The Greek crisis Equity trends
2 Peter Malmqvist Present Chairman, Sw. Assoc. of Financial Analyst Investigator at the Stockholm Exchange Part-time teacher at Stockholm School of Economics and Stockholm University Columns in the business magazines: Privata Affärer, Aktiespararen, Sunt förnuft, Fastighetsnytt, Balans Past Head of equity research at Nordnet Bank Member of The EFRAG User Panel Head of equity research and asset management at Aragon Securities Business journalist at Svenska Dagbladet, Swedish Public TV (Aktuellt), Sydsvenska Dagbladet Private Equity Analyst (The Swedish Investment Bank AB) Accountant (Ernst & Young)
3 The Swedish financial crices Earnings development Stockholm
4 Stockholm earnings Vinster/Earnings (Q1) Base 100 = 1975 Moving average 4 quarters
5 USA earnings (S&P) S&P (USA) Kurs Share prices Index Earnings Vinst S&P EPS x 17 Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index Source: Reuters EcoWin
6 Stockholm Earnings Stockholm - Årsvinst (annual earnings) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) AZN 30%, ABB 30%, Stora 50%, Nokia 7%
7 Stockholm Earnings engineering 120 Verkstadssektorn (Engineering) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) ABB 30%
8 Stockholm Earnings banks Finansiella tjänster (Financials) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) 60% Nordea
9 Stockholm Earnings banks Handelsbanken Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mn SEK
10 Stockholm Earnings banks Nordea Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B)
11 Stockholm Earnings banks SEB Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B)
12 Stockholm Earnings banks Swedbank Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B)
13 Equity trends Equity trends
14 Share price indices Index
15 Share price indices
16 Currency development
17 The crash in 2008 The banking crisis
18 The banking crises Lehman Brothers billions) USD (b
19 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
20 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
21 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
22 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
23 The banking crises Lehman Brothers rcent Per
24 The banking crises Lehman Brothers ercent Pe
25 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent
26 The banking crises Lehman Brothers ercent Pe
27 The crash in 2008 The real estate crash
28 The real estate bubble Index
29 The real estate bubble USA Sweden Index
30 The real estate bubble
31 The real estate bubble SEK (billions)
32 Economic trends Economic trends
33 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Tillväxtindikator (Growth indicator) Årstakt (Y o Y) Industriproduktion Detaljhandel Bilförsäljning Industrial production Retail sales Car sales Sweden Global
34 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Tillväxtindikator (Growth indicator) Årstakt (Y o Y) Industriproduktion Detaljhandel Bilförsäljning Germany Industrial production Retail sales Car sales Sweden
35 Economic trends 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Industriproduktion (Industrial Production) Årstakt (Y o Y) Global -15% -20% -25% Sweden
36 Economic trends 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Industriproduktion (Industrial Production) Årstakt (Y o Y) Germany -15% -20% -25% Sweden
37 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% Detaljhandel, exkl bilar (Retail Sales, excl cars) Volym, Årstakt (Volume, Y o Y) Sweden Global 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%
38 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% Detaljhandel, exkl bilar (Retail Sales, excl cars) Volym, Årstakt (Volume, Y o Y) Sweden 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Germany
39 Economic trends 20% 15% Bilförsäljning (Car Sales) Årstakt, rullande 12 mån (Y o Y, ma 12 month) 10% 5% Global 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Sweden
40 Economic trends 20% 15% 10% Bilförsäljning (Car Sales) Årstakt, rullande 12 mån (Y o Y, ma 12 month) Germany 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Sweden
41 Economic trends Purchasing Managers Index Sweden(black), Global (grey)
42 Economic trends Purchasing Managers Index Sweden(black), Germany (grey)
43 Economic trends 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% Employment growth Global Sweden -4,0%
44 Economic trends 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% Employment growth Germany Sweden -4,0%
45 Economic trends Percent
46 Government finances The Greek crisis
47 The Greek crisis Government budget surplus/deficit % GDP
48 The Greek crisis 2009 Budget Governm deficit debt % GDP % GDP Sweden -0,8 42 Germany -3,3 73 Italy -5,2 116 Portugal -9,4 77 USA -9,7 85 Spain -11,2 53 U.K -11,4 68 Ireland -12,2 64 Greece -13,5 115
49 The Greek crisis Current account, surplus/deficit % GDP hundredt ths
50 The Greek crisis 2009 Budget Governm Current deficit debt account % GDP % GDP % GDP Sweden -0,8 42 7,2 Germany -3,3 73 4,9 Italy -5, ,1 Portugal -9, ,3 USA -9,7 85-2,9 Spain -11,2 53-5,4 U.K -11,4 68-1,3 Ireland -12,2 64-3,7 Greece -13, ,2
51 The Greek crisis Current account, surplus/deficit % GDP hundredt ths
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