Fuel Price Trends and Forecast- 2016

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1 Fuel Price Trends and Forecast White Paper Updated April 2016 (For information purposes only) The international Brent oil price experienced a significant price decrease of 21% from $ in December 2015 to $ in April This clearly shows a downward trend for the commodity price over this period. Taking into consideration that the fuel price in the country is adjusted monthly, we experienced a decrease in the fuel price twice on the 06 January 2016 and the 02 March For the other 2 months, consumers have been hit hard by fuel prices hikes. From 06 January 2016 to 06 April 2016, the total change in the petrol and Diesel price will change by R 0.53 and R The latest fuel price change will occur on Wednesday the 06 April 2016 for both petrol and Diesel. The reef petrol 95 will increase by 88c/l and the wholesale price of diesel, 0.005% sulphur, will increase by 98c/l. The main contributors to the price change for South Africa are as follows:- 1. The increase in fuel levies as determined by the Minister of Finance of 30c/l in his budget speech on the 24 February The transportation costs will increase by 5.2 c/l in Gauteng resulting from the National Energy Regulator of South Africa s (Nersa) approved pipeline tariff increase as well the road transportation tariff increase obtained from the Road Freight Association (RFA). 3. The average increase in the prices of petroleum products in the international markets amounts to 52 c/l for petrol and 61 c/l for diesel respectively. 4. On average the Rand strengthened against the US Dollar when compared to the previous period. The average Rand/US Dollar exchange rate for the period 26 February 2016 to 31 March 2016 was compared to during the previous period. The strengthening of the Rand against the US Dollar decreased the contribution to the Basic Fuels Price on petrol, diesel by c/l and 9.98 c/l. (Department of energy, 2016)

2 Figure 1: RSA Quarterly Fuel Price During the previous fuel price change in March 2016 local Petrol prices decreased by 69c/l and Diesel prices increased by 14 c/l. In completing >90 detailed fleet reviews, our Eqstra Fleet Consulting team has established that fuel now contributes between 42% and 48% of overall corporate fleet expenditure. This affirms fuel as the single biggest cost to fleet controllers, and emphasises the importance of better management of driver behaviour and better choice of vehicles. RSA quarterly fuel price Petrol Diesel Linear (Petrol) Linear (Diesel) The petrol retail price in South Africa is regulated by government, and adjusted every month on the first Wednesday of the month. The Central Energy Fund (CEF) calculates the new petrol price on behalf of the Department of Energy (DOE). The petrol pump price is composed of a number of price elements both international and domestic. Factors that affect the fuel price include: The international element, or Basic Fuel price (BFP), is based on what it would cost a South African importer to purchase crude oil on the international market and to transport the product onto South African shores. The domestic elements include different pricing zone (magisterial district zones), certain domestic transport costs, government import taxes and levies

3 and retail and wholesale margins which all need to be added to the international price. The exchange rate of the SA Rand to the US Dollar - as crude oil is traded in US currency. Figure 2: RSA Petrol Price (Reef) April 2009 April 2016 RSA PETROL APRIL APRIL Petrol R 7.38 R 8.58 R 9.96 R R R R R Diesel R 6.58 R 7.54 R 9.54 R R R R R Petrol Diesel Linear (Petrol) Linear (Diesel) Figure 3: Brent Crude Oil Spot Price (04 April 2016) Source: Nasdaq.com

4 The current decrease in the International Brent crude oil price is caused by number of factors such as Iran increasing its oil production and subsequently its export in order to regain its market position lost during its sanctions period. Russia also reported its highest oil production in 30 years, and Saudi Arabia will not join the freeze deal. (AMANDA COOPER, 2016) One of the key pricing elements remains the strength of the Rand - with forecasts for the South African Rand showing a continuing weakening again the US Dollar. The average South African Rand/US Dollar conversion rate over the last 12 months was R The current exchange rate as at the 04 April 2016 is R when compared to the average rate over the last 5 years (April 2011 April 2016) amounted to R According to the World Bank, by 2025, the Brent crude oil is forecasted to reach $ (Bank, 2015) Various analysts and experts in the field believe that the trend in local petrol prices could also end up on an upward trend for years to come. Figure 4: RSA Average Fuel Price per Year (Reef) RSA AVERAGE FUEL PRICE Petrol 95 R 7.40 R 8.26 R 9.97 R R R R R Diesel 0.01% R 6.70 R 7.45 R 9.32 R R R R R 9.95

5 The Outlook Based on the historical data, and the external predictions on both the Brent Crude and Rand pricing we are revising our April 2016 predictions and estimate that the average increase for the 2016 year will be between 9-10%. It is important to highlight that there are other factors that are beyond the market s control that will have a significant impact on the fuel price which will affect the fuel predictions. This prediction is based on the oil market stabilising in To place this in context, the average fleet vehicle consumes approximately 5,000 litres per annum. With the April 2016 fuel price of R 12.62, this would equate to an annual cost of R per vehicle per annum. A 9% increase would result in an annual increase of +/- R5 679 whereas a 10% increase would result in an annual fuel increase per vehicle of +/- R Recommendations Based on the information available to us at date of print, we would strongly recommend at least a 9-12% increase is forecasted/ budgeted for All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is confidential and has been prepared by EQSTRA FLEET CONSULTING solely for information purposes to our strategic clients; it is not to be relied upon by any third party without our prior written consent. This report, whilst based on the most realistic information and proven statistical methodologies available to us at publication and is intended to provide general information. It is not an exhaustive treatment of the subjects raised. Accordingly, it should not be relied on to address specific situations or circumstances and is not a substitute for accounting, tax, legal, or other professional advice. Before making any decision or taking or refraining from any action which might affect your finances or business affairs, or those of your employees, you should consult a qualified professional adviser to validate. EQSTRA Fleet Consulting address: 12 Corobrik Road, Meadowdale, Johannesburg, South Africa

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