ENERGIZING AMERICA: FACTS FOR ADDRESSING ENERGY POLICY. Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,

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1 ENERGIZING AMERICA: FACTS FOR ADDRESSING ENERGY POLICY Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,

2 Two Views of The Future of Oil and Natural Gas Yesterday s Energy Tomorrow s Mega-Trend Instead of subsidizing yesterday s energy sources, we need to invest in tomorrow s. We need to invest in clean, renewable energy A 30-year mega-trend has reversed that of rising U.S. oil demand and falling U.S. oil supply has become the opposite in both directions and the 30-year outlook suggests that this is no two or three year volatility, but rather, its own mega-trend. President Obama, April 23, 2011 Deutsche Bank, March 8, 2012

3 Yesterday s Energy Arguments and Proposals Oil and gasoline prices are too high and there s nothing we can do about them Oil profits are too high The future of our economy is with green energy We don t have much oil, only 2 percent of reserves We need to get rid of the oil and natural gas industry s tax breaks

4 Oil and gasoline prices are too high and there is nothing we can do about them.

5 Changes in Gasoline and Diesel Prices Mirror Changes in Crude Oil Prices

6 Many Factors Affect the Price of Oil, but It Comes Down to Supply and Demand Source: EIA

7 What Consumers are Paying for at the Gasoline Pump (as of February 22, 2012) Sources: Based on AAA average price of $3.58 per gallon, NYMEX WTI crude oil price of $ per barrel, and API nationwide average excise tax estimate of 49 cents per gallon.

8 Number of Refineries Has Declined but Total Capacity Continues to Trend Upward Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual

9 Thousands Barrels per Day Last Year the U.S. Became a Net Exporter of Petroleum Products for the First Time Since 1949 Net Imports of Total Petroleum Products 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000-2,000 Source: EIA

10 Oil profits are too high. And another step we need to take is to finally end the $4 billion in taxpayer subsidies we give to the oil and gas companies each year. That s $4 billion of your money going to these companies when they re making record profits and you re paying near record prices at the pump. It has to stop. President Obama s Weekly Address: "Instead of Subsidizing Yesterday's Energy Sources, We Need to Invest in Tomorrow's, April 23, 2011

11 Oil and Natural Gas Earnings are Typically in Line with the Average for Other Major U.S. Manufacturing Industries Third Quarter 2011 Earnings by Industry (net income/sales) Pharmaceuticals Computers Chemicals 15.1 All Manufacturing Aerospace Oil and Natural Gas Motor Vehicles Food 1.9 Source: Based on company filings with the federal government as reported by U.S. Census Bureau and Standard & Poor s Research Insight.

12 Who Owns U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Companies? Answer: Tens of Millions of Americans Pension Funds Source: Who Owns America s Oil and Natural Gas Companies, SONECON, October 2011

13 The future of our economy is with green energy.

14 The U.S. Will Require 10% More Energy in 2035 Than in 2010 with More Than Half of It to be Met by Oil and Gas 3.3% 3.7% 3.5% 19.7% 25.9% % 5.5% 8.6% 21.1% 25.2% 2.8% Hydroelectric 11.7% Biomass & Renewables 8.7% Nuclear Coal Natural Gas 20.0% 25.1% 43.8% 36.8% OIL 31.5%

15 The Demise of Oil and Natural Gas? Reports of [the demise of oil and natural gas] have been greatly exaggerated. Mark Twain Humorist, Author (and Well-Known Petroleum Industry Analyst?)

16 U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Production is Increasing as a Result of Technological Innovation U.S. Crude Oil Production (Thousands of barrels per day) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 U.S. Natural Gas Production (Dry) (trillion cubic feet) Source: Energy Information Administration

17 Shale Gas Plays Are Widely Dispersed Across the U.S

18 Four-Fold Increase in Shale Gas Production Offsets Declines in Other U.S. Supply, Meeting Consumption Growth and Lowering Import Needs U.S. Dry Gas trillion cubic feet per year History 5 0 2% 11% 14% 2009 Shale gas Projections 20% Non-associated onshore 8% 9% Non-associated offshore 8% 28% 8% 9% Net imports Tight gas Coalbed methane Associated with oil Alaska 1% % 46% 22% 7% 7% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

19 We don t have much oil, only 2 percent of the world s reserves. But we can t just drill our way out of this problem. While we consume 20 percent of the world s oil, we only have 2 percent of the world s oil reserves. President Obama s Weekly Address: Taking Control of Our Energy Future, March 3, 2012

20 Ultimately Recoverable Oil Resources Dwarf Current Proven Reserves Resource Pyramid for U.S. Oil Source: CRS, U.S. Fossil Fuel Resources: Terminology, Reporting, and Summary, March 25, 2011

21 87% of Federal Offshore Acreage is Off Limits to Development Offshore Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Federal Oil (Bbl) and Natural Gas (Tcf) Resources

22 Development of Canadian Oil Sands Would Benefit the U.S. Economy For every two jobs supported in Canada, one job will be supported in the U.S Canada s oil sands can support 600,000 U.S. jobs by For every US dollar spent on Canadian exports (i.e. crude oil) up to 90 cents is spent on imports of US goods and services to Canada. $775 billion dollars added to our GDP over next 25 years.

23 FILLING AMERICA S GAS TANK Within 12 years Canada & U.S. can provide all our liquid fuel needs Sources of liquid fuel supply: % 10% 13% 53% Oil from rest of world Biofuels Oil from Canada US oil production 10% 18% 72% EIA forecast Potential Sources: EIA; Wood Mackenzie

24 West Coast, AK & HI (PADD 5) Potential Jobs and Government Revenue Rockies (PADD 4) Midwest (PADD 2) Jobs (thousands) 2015 = = 1, = 1,404 Revenue (billions $) 2015 = $ = $ = $800.1 East Coast (PADD 1) $7.5 $23.9 $61.6 $0.6 $2.1 $ $ $225 $8.4 $27.2 $12.7 $42.2 $263.4 Gulf Coast (PADD 3) $6.9 $31.2 Figures may not add exactly due to rounding. Source: Wood Mackenzie Report, U.S. Supply Forecast and Potential Jobs and Economic Impacts ( ), September 7, 2011

25 Policy matters

26 Lost Capital Investment from Rig Movements Outside of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico $21.4 billion in investments lost 91,000 jobs lost Gulf production down more than 21% in 2012 over Estimated $5 billion in lost government revenue

27 Thousand Barrels Per Day Production From the Gulf of Mexico Has Declined 20% Since Source: Energy Information Administration

28 Where is the Commitment to American-Made Energy? Permitting slowdowns in the Gulf of Mexico and in western states A five-year plans that raises royalty rates and places most of our offshore resources off-limits Ten federal agencies now regulating or considering regulations on hydraulic fracturing Denying the Keystone pipeline development Proposed additional taxes of $85 billion or more

29 We need to get rid of the oil and natural gas industry s tax breaks. We ve subsidized oil companies for a century. That s long enough. It s time to end the taxpayer giveaways to an industry that rarely has been more profitable, and double-down on a clean energy industry that never has been more promising. President Obama, State of the Union, January 2012

30 The Oil and Natural Gas Industry is One of the Most Heavily Taxed Industries in America Income Tax Expenses as a Share of Net Income before Income Taxes(2010) 41.1% 26.5% Oil and Natural Gas Companies S& P Industrials Excluding Oil and Natual Gas Companies Source: Compustat North America Database, April 2011 update.

31

32

33 A Large Majority of Americans Support Increased Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Development Harris Poll Results on Increased U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Development 87% 83% 82% 72% Lead to more American jobs Reduce energy costs Increase energy security Deliver more revenue to government Source: Harris Interactive telephone poll, January 2012

34 Thank You For more information visit:

35 Economic Impact of Oil and Natural Gas Industry on Louisiana s Economy Supports 375,000 Louisianan jobs Supports total value added to Louisiana s economy of $43 billion or 22.8% of GSP

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