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1 MSETC ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY - SUMMER 2011 Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale Economic Impact Study Summer 2011

2 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter1 PennsylvaniaStatewide MarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment June2011 Needsassessmentconductedby: MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter(MSETC) AcollaborationofPennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology andpennstateextension MSETCTeam TracyL.Brundage ManagingDirector,WorkforceDevelopment& ContinuingEducation PennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology JeffreyJacquet JacquetResearchandConsulting TimothyW.Kelsey,Ph.D. StateProgramLeader,EconomicandCommunity Development PennStateExtension ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity JamesR.Ladlee CountyExtensionDirector,PennStateExtension DirectorofSpecialInitiatives,MarcellusShale Education&TrainingCenter ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity JaniceLobdell Consultant LjLConsulting,LLC JeffreyF.Lorson DirectorofWorkforceTraining,MarcellusShale Education&TrainingCenter PennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology LarryL.Michael ExecutiveDirector,Workforce&Economic Development PennsylvaniaCollegeofTechnology ThomasB.Murphy Co Director,MarcellusCenter foroutreachandresearch PennStateExtension ThePennsylvaniaStateUniversity MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter andpenncollege areregisteredintheu.s.patentandtrademarkoffice.

3 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment TableofContents TableofFigures...4 ExecutiveSummary...5 Introduction...9 MarcellusShaleNaturalGasPlay...9 StatewideDevelopmentProjections...14 SingleWellPadsvs.Multi WellPads...15 High BTUGas...18 IntroductiontotheNaturalGasIndustryWorkforce...19 LocationsandResidency...20 DrillingPhaseJobsvs.ProductionPhaseJobs...21 Pre drillinganddrillingphasejobs...21 ProductionPhaseJobs...21 TheMSETCWorkforceModel...22 Methodology...22 HistoryofThisWorkforceModel...23 Advantages,Limitations,andKeyAssumptionsoftheMSETCModelMethodology...24 Advantages:...24 Limitations:...25 KeyAssumptions:...25 KeyAssumptionsofHigh BTUGasWorkforceEstimates...25 KeyAssumptionsforFTEsforMultipleWellPads...26 NaturalGasWorkforceRequirementsInterviews,FocusGroups,andOnlineWorkforceAssessment...26 WorkforceModelResults...29 Full TimeWorkEquivalent(FTE)toDrillOneMarcellusShaleWell...29 ProductionPhaseFTEs...30 Direct JobCreation...30 StatewideDirectWorkforceRequirements...31 PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...31 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...31 NortheastRegion MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter2

4 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...33 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...33 SouthwestRegion...34 PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...34 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...34 NorthwestRegion...35 PreviousandCurrentWorkforceRequirements...35 EstimatedFutureWorkforceRequirements...35 OccupationalCategorieswithintheNaturalGasIndustry...36 Summary...37 References...38 Appendices...39 HighNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...40 HighSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...41 HighNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...42 LowPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...43 LowNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...44 LowSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...45 LowNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...46 HistoryoftheMarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter...51 Pre DrillingMatrix...53 Drilling&CompletionMatrix...55 ProductionPhaseMatrix MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter3

5 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment TableofFigures Figure1:MapofMarcellusShaleFootprint&Depth...10 Figure2:MapofMarcellusShaleWellsasofMarch31, Figure3:HistoricalandProjectedActivity&MedianEstimatedWorkforceRequirements, Figure4:MarcellusWellsDrilledbyRegion(andCounty)inPennsylvania...13 Figure5:MarcellusShaleDirectWorkforceAssessmentStudyArea...14 Figure6:WellsonMulti WellPads, Figure7:WellPadDevelopmentScenarios...17 Figure8:WellsDrilledonNewWellPads...18 Figure9:PhasesandTimelineofDevelopmentofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasWells...19 Figure10:GeneralEquationBehindWorkforceModel...23 Figure11:BiggestChallengestoFindingNewWorkers...28 Figure12:EducationandTrainingProgramsMostNeeded...28 Figure13:FTEbyPhaseandTypeofWell...29 Figure14:MedianPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...31 Figure15:MedianNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...33 Figure16:MedianSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...34 Figure17:MedianNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...35 Figure18:OccupationalCompositionofNaturalGasWorkforces...36 Figure19:HighPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...39 Figure20:HighNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...40 Figure21:HighSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...41 Figure22:HighNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...42 Figure23:LowPennsylvaniaScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...43 Figure24:LowNortheastRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...44 Figure25:LowSouthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...45 Figure26:LowNorthwestRegionScenarioMarcellusShaleWorkforceRequirementsbyPhase...46 Figure27:EstimatedStatewideOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario...47 Figure28:EstimatedNorthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario...48 Figure29:EstimatedSouthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario...49 Figure30:EstimatedNorthwestOccupationalRequirements MedianDevelopmentScenario MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter4

6 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment ExecutiveSummary ThePennsylvaniaMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessmentisintendedtosupplybaselinedatato provide individuals, job seekers, communities, businesses, workforce and economic development professionals, and government officials at all levels with the ability to estimate the direct workforce requirements for Marcellus Shale development. Specifically, the assessment can help outline the key occupations associated with unconventional natural gas development and the number of direct jobs requiredtobringamarcelluswellintoproductioninpennsylvaniabetween2011and2014. Over the course of nearly three years, the Marcellus Shale Education & Training Center (MSETC) has developedandrefinedthemethodusedinthisstudytoestimatethe direct workforcerequirements of the natural gas industry. Given the different development patterns across Pennsylvania, it is importanttohaveaworkforcemodelthatiseasilyadaptabletochangingdevelopmentscenarios.the methodologyfocusesonanalyzingthetypesandnumbersofworkersneededtodrillasinglemarcellus Shalegaswellandthenusesthedirectworkforcedatatoachieveatotalworkforcerequirementbased on estimates of future well drilling activity. At the core of the MSETC model is a full time equivalent (FTE)calculationforeachworkerassociatedwithdrillingasingleMarcellusShalewell.Themodelalso incorporateschangesindevelopmentpractices(singlevs.multi wellpads),infrastructuredevelopment (pipeline), and differing natural gas properties (dry gas vs. high BTU gas). The flexibility of a per well model significantly increases the predictive power of the model and the usefulness for business and workforceplanning.theworkforceestimateswithinthereportwerecreatedusinginterviews,anonline assessment, publicly available investor reports, and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection spermitandwellspudreports. MarcellusShaleisaverylargenaturalgasformationextendingacross95,000squaremilesandrunning throughroughlytwo thirdsofpennsylvaniaandportionsofnewyork,westvirginia,virginia,maryland, andohio.inpennsylvania,developmentofmarcellusshalebeganinwashingtoncountyin2004.over the next few years, the Marcellus development footprint quickly expanded to include significant portions of northeast Pennsylvania. Today, southwest Pennsylvania is increasingly being selected as a preferredlocationtoestablishappalachianbasinheadquartersforexplorationandproduction,service, andsupplycompanies.thehubofdrillingactivityinpennsylvaniahasbeenmoreheavilyconcentrated inthenortheastfor2010andthusfarin2011. The northeast region of Pennsylvania saw moderate growth during initial stages of Marcellus development with only 76 wells drilled in In the second half of 2009, development in the area begantorampupquicklywith332wellsdrilled.thecorecountiesofthenortheastregionhavequickly become a major Marcellus Shale development hotspot for the state of Pennsylvania, with 909 wells drilledin2010,andmorethan1,000expectedin2011. TheMarcellusShaleresourcealsoincludesthenorthwestregionofPennsylvania;however,duetothe shallower depth and thinner shale formation, most of the areas are currently considered outside the geologic MarcellusFairway.Anumberofenergycompanieshavebeendrillingexploratorywellsinthe area,andseveralcompanieshaveannouncedplanstodedicatedrillingrigsonthesouthernandeastern 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter5

7 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment frontsofthenorthwestregion.permittingactivityhasincreasedintheregionoverthepastfewyears, anddrillingactivityinthefirstfourmonthsof2011showcontinuedgrowthandsignificantpotentialfor commercialquantitiesofnaturalgasfromthenorthwestregion. With the recent dramatic increase in interest in high BTU gas and the premium price commanded for liquids richnaturalgas,thesouthwestregionappearspoisedforaresurgenceinshalegasdevelopment relatedtothemarcellus,utica,andotherupperdevonianshaleformations.acombinationoflimited natural gas infrastructure capacity and a need to develop lease holdings in non traditional natural gas areas of Pennsylvania appear to have resulted in a moderation of development growth in the region overthelastfewyears.naturalgasinfrastructurecapacitywouldincludeaneedforadditionalpipeline and processing facilities required to bring wet or high BTU gas to market. Although the pace of Marcellusdevelopmentwasslowerinthesouthwestfrom ,companiesactiveintheareahave madepublicstatementsthattheyintendtodramaticallyincreaseactivitywithinthesouthwestregionin 2011andbeyond.Infact,rigcountsandpermittingwithinthefirstfourmonthsof2011showactivity levelsshouldeclipse2010development. The 19 southeast counties of Pennsylvania are currently outside the Marcellus Shale footprint, but represent28%ofallpennsylvaniacountiesand58%ofthetotalpennsylvaniapopulation(census,2010). EventhoughoutsidethecoreMarcellusdevelopmentarea,thesoutheastportionofthestatewillstill likely benefit significantly from Marcellus business and workforce opportunities. Without direct Marcellusdrillingandcompletionactivitiesinthesoutheastregion,manyoftheworkforceandbusiness opportunities will likely provide services, support, and supply chain resources in support of energy explorationandproductionoperations.mostofthesesupportbusinesseswillbeabletomaintaintheir primarylocationsinthesoutheastregion,butcompanyfieldandoperationsstaffwillprovideservices withinthemarcellusfootprint.beingoutsidethemarcellusfootprintdoeschangetheoverallimmediate visibilityoftheworkforceimpact,buttheregionwillfacemanyofthesamechallengesasotherregions inpennsylvaniainattemptingtotakefulladvantageofmarcellusworkforceandbusinessopportunities. A few of the key workforce challenges across Pennsylvania include understanding the geographic distribution of the Marcellus industry, developing a basic understanding of natural gas development, developingadiversenetworkofenergysectorcontacts,andtakingadvantageofnaturalgassafetyand trainingopportunities. MarcellusShaledevelopmentinPennsylvaniaisexpectedtoincreaseincomingyears,butthestrength of Marcellus growth will continue to depend on the commodity price of natural gas, natural gas inventories,naturalgasinfrastructuredevelopment,naturalgasutilization,andtheoverallhealthofthe economy. Additionally, many areas will likely see increased natural gas activity, but development is expectedtocontinuetobeuneven.thecurrentmsetcdirectworkforceassessmentresearchsuggests Pennsylvaniadrillingactivityshouldincreasesignificantlystatewide.Onaregionalbasis,thesouthwest and northwest portions of the state will see the largest increases with development in the northeast region moderating slightly. Current estimates for statewide drilling activity include 1,599 Marcelluswellsin2011;1,888wellsin2012;2,009wellsin2013;and2,159wellsin2014.Thecompany drillingprojectionsindicatearoughannualgrowthrateindrillingactivityof6 18%,withanearly60% increaseinoverallactivityby MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter6

8 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment TobringasingleMarcelluswellonlinerequiresabout420individualsacross150differentoccupations. Eachphaseofnaturalgasdevelopmentincludesdifferentworkforcedemandsandvariesbasedonthe utilizationofmulti wellpadsandtheneedforadditionalnaturalgasinfrastructure.utilizing260eight hourdaysor2,080workhoursperyear,thefirstmarcelluswelldrilledonawellpadwillrequire full timeequivalent(fte)workersand FTEworkersforeachwelldrilledinsuccessionon thesamewellpad.fordevelopmentofasinglemarcelluswell,theinitialpre drillingphaseofnatural gas development represents about 18% of the entire workforce needed or 2.41 FTEs. The phase of naturalgasdevelopmentwhenthenaturalgaswellsaredrilledandthepipelineinfrastructureisputinto place is an extremely labor intensive process and represents about 80% of the workforce for a single well or FTEs. Finally, natural gas compression and processing requires about 2% of the overall workforceor FTEsdependingondry,wet,orhigh BTUnaturalgasprocessingneeds. BasedontheMarcellusdevelopmentin2010,theMSETCmodelwouldprojectroughly14,777direct jobswererequiredtocomplete1,368wells,anincreaseofnearly12,248newjobsover2008joblevels. AcrossthestateofPennsylvania,thetotalnumberofdirectnaturalgasdevelopmentjobs(notindirect orinducedjobs)createdbywellsdrilledbetween2011and2014iscurrentlyestimatedtorange between18,596and30,684ftejobs,creating9,800to15,900newjobsover2010levels,dependingon thetotalnumberofwellsdrilled. This assessment is based solely on the employees directly involved in developing a well and placing it into production and does not consider indirect or induced employment impacts. The projections are not intended to serve as a measure of the total employment created by Marcellus Shale natural gas development or to estimate the economic impact of such development. The findings of this report, therefore,shouldnotbecomparedtoemploymentestimatesofotherstudies,whichmostareintended to project the overall employment and economic impact of natural gas drilling in Pennsylvania using multipliers toestimatejobcreationinsectorsotherthanthosedirectlyassociatedwiththebringingof amarcelluswellintoproduction.thisreportprovidesthebestestimatecurrentlyavailableofworkers neededtobringamarcelluswellintoproductionandprojectedgrowthinlabordemandsaroundhigh priorityoccupationsfortheoilandgasindustry. Theutilizationofmulti wellpadsnotonlyreducesthesurfaceenvironmentalfootprintofawellpad,but also increases the efficiency of the natural gas exploration process and reduces the overall workforce needs by roughly 25%. The greatest multi well pad workforce impacts result from a roughly 73% decrease in the need for pre drilling occupations and a 16% decrease in drilling and completion jobs whentwoormorewellsaredrilledonthesamewellpad.ifallmarcelluswellsdevelopedweresingle wellpads,theworkforceneedswouldincreaselabordemandsbythousandsofadditionalworkers,but conversely the well pad surface footprint would also increase by six to ten times (depending on well spacing). Inactualityover98%ofnaturalgasexplorationanddevelopmentjobsarefoundinthepre drillingand drilling phase of bringing a well into production, and this segment of the workforce will no longer be neededoncetheprocessofdrillinggaswellsandaffiliatedinfrastructureinanareaiscompleted.inthe oil and natural gas industries, this drilling phase period is often referred to as the boom as vast 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter7

9 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment workforces are often suddenly required to perform tasks associated with natural gas development. Conversely,thedrillingphasecansuddenlydecline,whichisoftenreferredtoasthe thebust. Themajorityofthepre drilling,drilling,andproductionphasejobswillbelocatedinthevicinityofthe well being drilled. Office workers and some geologic scientists, engineers, and supervisors will be located at energy, service, and support company offices, which may or may not be located near the vicinityofthewellsiteorevenwithintheregion.inthedevelopmentofmarcellusitisimportanttonote thatmanyofthedrillingphasejobswillbegeographicallytemporary,meaningadrillingrigmovesfrom location to location, but the drilling phase jobs will continue to be stable jobs across much of the AppalachianBasinforanestimated30to50years. In contrast to drilling phase jobs, jobs associated with the production phase are well defined as the managementofanoperatingwell,generallyserveafixedgeographicarea,andwilllastthelifetimeofa producingmarcelluswell.evenifdrillingweretoceasecompletely,theproductionphasejobsnecessary to manage and maintain Marcellus wells would still be required for decades. In fact, many geologists believe the wells created as part of the Marcellus Shale development will likely produce commercial quantitiesofnaturalgasfor30yearsormore. As the Marcellus Play continues to mature, the industry has definitely moved towards hiring more Pennsylvania residents. Early in the development of the Marcellus, the natural gas industry relied heavilyonout of stateemployeeswithexperienceandknowledgedevelopinghigh pressurenaturalgas. Although Pennsylvania drilled its first oil well in 1859, fluctuations in the commodity market and the prospects of stronger commercial gas fields in other areas drew much of the industry talent to other states.whenmarcellusexplorationandproductionbegantoramp up,therewastremendouspressure tofindemployeeswithsomelegacynaturalgasknowledge.theearlystagesofdevelopmentfoundas many as 70 80% of the employees from outside Pennsylvania. Although there is still tremendous variability across energy, service, and support companies, this study s interview and survey data indicatesanaverageof65 75%ofallnewMarcellusworkersarePennsylvaniaresidents. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter8

10 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Introduction ThePennsylvaniaMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessmentisintendedtosupplybaselinedatato provide individuals, job seekers, communities, businesses, workforce and economic development professionals, and government officials at all levels with the ability to estimate the direct workforce requirements for Marcellus Shale development. Specifically, the assessment can help outline the key occupations associated with unconventional natural gas development and the number of direct jobs requiredtobringamarcelluswellintoproductioninpennsylvaniabetween2011and2014. MarcellusShaleNaturalGasPlay Marcellus Shale is a very large natural gas formation extending across 95,000 square miles, running throughroughlytwo thirdsofpennsylvaniaandportionsofnewyork,westvirginia,virginia,maryland, and Ohio(Figure 1). In Pennsylvania, development of Marcellus Shale began in Washington County in Over the next few years, the Marcellus development footprint quickly expanded to include significantportionsofnortheastpennsylvania.southwestpennsylvaniaisincreasinglybeingselectedas a preferred location to establish Appalachian Basin headquarters for exploration and production, service, and supply companies. The hub of drilling activity in Pennsylvania has been more heavily concentrated in the northeast for 2010 and thus far in Today, more than 2,800 Marcellus wells havebeendrilledinpennsylvania(figure2). Energy companies continue to invest billions of dollars in exploration and production programs throughout Pennsylvania. Investments by industry include securing mineral rights and land, drilling, productionstimulation,pipeline,compressorstations,processing,andavarietyofotherinfrastructure investments necessary to realize the potential of Marcellus Shale. In 2010, two of the world s largest energy firms purchased large stakes in Marcellus Shale, and nearly all of the major firms active in the areacontinuetoplanexpansionsoftheirdevelopmentoperationsbeyond2011. ThereasonsfortheplannedMarcellusexpansionbyexplorationandproductioncompaniesareduetoa numberoffactorsincluding,butnotlimitedto,therelativeinfancyoftheplay,thecloseproximityof largeconsumermarkets,proximitytomajortransmissionlines,andtheextremeamountofnaturalgas thoughttoberecoverable.theamountoftotalrecoverablenaturalgaslocatedwithintheformationis currentlyunknown,althoughrecoverablegasestimatesformarcellusshalehaverecentlyrangedfrom 262to489trillioncubicfeet(EIA,2011;Englander,2009).Regardlessoftheestimates,mostgeologists placetherecoverablegasreservepotentialamongthelargestinthenationandpossiblytheworld. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter9

11 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Source:MarcellusCenterforOutreachandResearch,PennState Figure1:MapofMarcellusShaleFootprint&Depth Source:MarcellusCenterforOutreachandResearch,PennState Figure2:MapofMarcellusShaleWellsasofMarch31, MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter10

12 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Marcellus Shale development within Pennsylvania first occurred with significant intensity in the southwestregion,withthefirstwelldrilledbyrangeresourcesllcin2004inwashingtoncountyand corresponding gas production in 2005 (Harper, 2008). Shortly after Marcellus development began in southwest Pennsylvania, the hub of drilling activity quickly shifted to the northeast region of Pennsylvania(Figures 3 and 4). With the recent dramatic increase in interest in high BTU gas and the premium price commanded for liquids rich natural gas, the southwest region appears poised for a resurgenceinshalegasdevelopmentrelatedtothemarcellus,utica,andotherupperdevonianshale formations. A combination of limited natural gas infrastructure capacity and a need to develop lease holdingsinnon traditionalnaturalgasareasofpennsylvaniaappearstohaveresultedinamoderation ofdevelopmentgrowthintheregionoverthelastfewyears.naturalgasinfrastructurecapacitywould includeaneedforadditionalpipelineandprocessingfacilitiesrequiredtobring wet orhigh BTUgasto market. Although the pace of Marcellus development was slower in the southwest from , companies active in the area have made public statements that they intend to dramatically increase activity within the southwest region in 2011 and beyond. In fact, rig counts and permitting within the firstfourmonthsof2011showactivitylevelsshouldeclipse2010development.additionally,allegheny andwashingtoncountiesalsoappeartobeemergingasafutureenergyhubontheeastcoastwitha veryhighconcentrationofoilandgasrelatedbusinesseslocatingappalachianbasinoperationsthere. The northeast region of Pennsylvania saw moderate growth during initial stages of Marcellus development, with only 76 wells drilled in 2008, but expanded dramatically in 2009 and In the secondhalfof2009,developmentintheareabegantorampupquicklywith332wellsdrilled.thecore countiesofthenortheastregionhavequicklybecomeamajormarcellusshaledevelopmenthotspotfor thestate,with909wellsdrilledin2010andmorethan1,000expectedin2011. ThesoutheastregionofPennsylvaniaisoutsidethecurrentlydefinedMarcellusShalefootprint.Given the geographic proximity to the play, location of the Appalachian Basin and regional company headquarters, and a large workforce base, southeast Pennsylvania will experience some workforce demand in key core and ancillary occupations related to shale gas growth. Although, not as easy to quantify,thesoutheastregionwilllikelyseeanincreasedneedforconstructionworkers,retailworkers, mechanics,engineers,welders,commercialtruckdrivers,geologists,andmore. MuchofthenorthwestregionofPennsylvaniacontainsMarcellusShale,butduetotheshallowerdepth and thinner shale formation most of the areas are currently considered outside the primary geologic MarcellusFairway.However,anumberofenergycompanieshavebeendrillingexploratorywellsin the area, and several companies have announced plans to dedicate drilling rigs on the southern and easternfrontsofthenorthwestregion.permittingactivityhasincreasedintheregionoverthepastfew years, and drilling activity in the first four months of 2011 show continued growth and significant potentialforcommercialquantitiesofnaturalgasfromthenorthwestregion. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter11

13 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Figures 3 and 4 provide a breakdown of the number of wells drilled by region and by county across Pennsylvania. HistoricalandProjectedDrillingActivity& MedianEstimatedWorkforceRequirements, Southwest Northeast Northwest Pennsylvania Wells Rigs FTEs Wells Rigs FTEs Wells Rigs FTEs Wells Rigs FTEs , , , , , , , ,080 1, , ,095 1, , ,401 1, , ,062 1, , ,940 1, , ,734 1, , ,985 2, , ,350 1, , ,008 2, ,644 Figure3:HistoricalandProjectedActivity&MedianEstimatedWorkforceRequirements, MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter12

14 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment MarcellusWellsDrilledbyRegion NortheastRegion SouthwestRegion County 2011* County 2011* Bradford Allegheny Carbon Armstrong Centre Beaver Clinton Bedford Columbia Blair Juniata Butler Lackawanna Cambria Luzerne Fayette Lycoming Fulton Mifflin Greene Monroe Huntingdon Montour Indiana Northumberland Somerset Pike Washington Schuylkill Westmoreland Snyder TotalSW: Sullivan NorthwestRegion Susquehanna County 2011* Tioga Cameron Union Clarion Wayne Clearfield Wyoming Crawford TotalNE: Elk Erie StatewideTotals: Forest Source:PennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmental Jefferson Protection.*2011DatathroughMay1,2011 Lawrence McKean Mercer Potter Venango Warren TotalNW: Figure4:MarcellusWellsDrilledbyRegion(andCounty)inPennsylvania Finally,itshouldbenotedthatwhiletheworkforcenumbersintheassessmentreflectthegeographic borders of Pennsylvania divided into four regions (northeast, northwest, southeast, and southwest) withinthestate(figure5),marcellusdevelopmentdoesnotstopatthestateborderandencompasses most of the Appalachian Basin. It also should be noted there are no job estimates for the southeast regionofpennsylvaniabecausenowellsarebeingdrilledinthatregion.marcellusworkforceactivityin thesoutheastwillbeprimarilylimitedtoservice,support,andsupply chainindustries.themajorityof thepre drilling,drilling,andproductionphasejobswillbelocatedinthevicinityofthewellbeingdrilled. Someexamplesofjobsthatmayormaynotbelocatednearthevicinityofthewellsiteorevenwithin theregioncouldincludeofficeworkers,geologists,engineers,andsupervisors. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter13

15 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Figure5:MarcellusShaleDirectWorkforceAssessmentStudyArea StatewideDevelopmentProjections While region specific sections are discussed, overall Marcellus Shale development in Pennsylvania is expected to increase in coming years as development growth occurs in the southwest and northwest regionsanddevelopmentinthenortheastregionremainssteady.basedoninterviewsandsurveydata from energy companies, as well as from information gleaned from investor statements and public disclosures,currentestimatesfor statewidedrillingactivityinclude1,599Marcelluswellsin 2011;1,888wellsin2012;2,009wellsin2013;and2,159wellsin MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter14

16 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Actual/ProjectedMarcellusShaleWellsDrilledPerYearbyRegion Northwest Northeast Southwest WellsDrilledPerYear (Actual) 2009 (Actual) 2010 (Actual) Table1:Actual/ProjectedMarcellusShaleWellsDrilledPerYearbyRegion 2011 Year SingleWellPadsvs.Multi WellPads Thedirectworkforceassessmentmodelusedtodetermineworkforceneedsisbasedonthenumberof occupations and full time equivalent (FTE) workers needed to bring a single Marcellus well into production. Over the last 18 months, the industry has shown a marked increase in the utilization of multi well pads. Multi well pads actually reduce the potential surface footprint of natural gas developmentandincreasetheefficiencyoftheexplorationprocess.whileincreasingefficiency,theuse of multi well pads does decrease the overall required workforce. The amount of FTE savings really depends on how many wells are drilled consecutively on a single well pad. Wells that are drilled on existing pads require a smaller workforce for land clearing, pipeline construction, and equipment operationonaperwellbasis. AccordingtotheDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection s spudreports,thetotalnumber ofwellsspudded(started)asofmay15,2011,included2,966wells.aftercorrectingforduplicatewell records and eliminating wells where a usable coordinate system could not be identified, 2,824 wells wereidentifiedforinclusioningeo spatialanalysisofwellpaddevelopmentinthemarcellusplay.well padswereidentifiedusinga250 footbufferaroundeachwellhead,meaningifanothermarcelluswell waswithin250feetthereisaveryhighlikelihoodthatthewellsareonthesamewellpad(figure6). 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter15

17 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Based on a geo spatial analysis of drilling locations performed by the MSETC team for this study, it is estimatednowellsdrilledin2007werewithin250feetofanothermarcelluswelloronamulti wellpad, butby2011upwardsof78%ofthewellsdrilledwereonawellpadwithatleastoneothermarcellus well(figure6).sixty fivepercent(65%)ofwellsdrilledin2011weredrilledonnewmulti wellpads,13% weredrilledonpadscreatedinpreviousyears,and22%arecurrentlysinglewells. WellsDrilledonMulit WellPads * 80% 76% 78% 70% 60% 55% 50% 40% 30% 20% 16% 10% 0% 0% Figure6:WellsonMulti WellPads, * *2011datacurrentthroughMay MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter16

18 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment If we look at multi well pad development over time, our research revealed that about 17% of the Marcellussinglewellpadsconstructedin2007ultimatelyendedupasmulti wellsites.jumpingaheadto 2010,1,380totalwellsweredrilled,126wells(9%)weredrilledonpreviouslyconstructedwellpads,325 wells(24%)wereonnewsinglewellpads,and929wells(67%)weredrilledonnewlyconstructedmultiwellpads(figure7).ifwefocusonthe1,254wellsdrilledonnewwellpadsconstructedin2010,wefind 74% of new wells were drilled on multi well pads, and 26% of new wells were drilled on a single well pad.in2010,atotalof580newwellpadswereconstructedwith56%ofnewwellpadsholdingonlyone well (325 wells) and 44% holding two or more wells drilled on the same pad (929 wells) within a calendar year. Several variables can affect the development of multi well pads; however, under the currentdevelopmentscenariosmulti wellpadscertainlydominatecurrentproductionplans. WellDevelopmentScenarios WellsDrilledOnPreviouslyConstructedWellPads WellsDrilledonaNewSingle WellPad WellsDrilledonaNewMuli WellPad WellsDrilledOnNewlyConstructedWellPads TotalWellsDrilled Figure7:WellPadDevelopmentScenarios One other important question to consider when analyzing workforce estimates and the process for developing multi well pads is how many wells are actually being drilled per well pad in a given year. Riggingupforonewell,drillingawell,riggingdown,andcomingbacktothesamewellpadatalater dateisfarmorelaborintensivethandrillingandcompletingmultiplewellsallatthesametime. 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter17

19 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment Ofthe580wellpadsconstructedin2010,255(44%)weredevelopedasmulti wellpadswhile325(56%) hadonlyonewellwhentheywereoriginallyconstructed.today,ofthosesame580wellpads,271are multi well pads, and 309 are still single well pads. Although there were more single well pads constructedin2010,about76%ofthedrillingactivitytookplaceonamulti wellpad.roughly18%of wellsweredrilledonatwo wellpad,12%onathree wellpad,9%onafour wellpad,7%onafive well pad,and31%weredrilledonasix wellormorepad(figure8). 100% WellDrillingTrends % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ormore Figure8:WellsDrilledByWellPadType High BTUGas Abigfactorintheprojectedincreaseofdrillingactivityinthesouthwestregionisduetotheeconomic attractivenessofliquids rich,high BTUgasfoundinpartsoftheMarcellusShalelocatedinsouthwestern Pennsylvania. High BTU gas requires large processing facilities to extract liquids such as oil and heavy gasoline and to fractionate other gas compounds found within the produced methane. The result of high BTU gas processing is a multitude of saleable products that can significantly raise the return on investment and produce potentially higher profits under lower natural gas commodity prices. Some media reports have labeled the attractiveness of high BTU gas as a Race to Liquids as companies devote significant resources to liquid rich areas (Braziel, 2010). Like many aspects of natural gas 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter18

20 PennsylvaniaStatewideMarcellusShaleWorkforceNeedsAssessment development,thecontinuedattractivenessofhigh BTUgaswilllikelyremainvariableanddependenton anumberofdifferentfactors,includingcommodityprice. Theexactboundaryofwetvs.drygasisunclearatthistime,althoughwet/high BTUgasisunderstood to be principally found in western Pennsylvania (Figure 1). Projecting development activity that will occur specifically within the high BTU gas region is more difficult. Permitting activity reported by the PennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtection,aswellasdiscussionswithoperatorsinthearea, suggestthatbetween60 75%ofthewellsdrilledinthesouthwestregionwithinthenextseveralyears maybeliquids rich,high BTUgasthatrequiresadditionalprocessing. IntroductiontotheNaturalGasIndustryWorkforce TheMarcellusShaledevelopmentprocessdifferssignificantlyfromthatofPennsylvania slongtradition of extracting shallow gas and oil. Due to differences in geology, technology, and energy company practicestheextractionofmarcellusshalerequiresmoreemployeesandsignificantlygreaterinputand utilization of supplies, materials, and equipment (Figure 9). Marcellus Shale gas is considered unconventional becausetheformationrequiresdirectionaldrilling,productionstimulation,andother methodstoproducecommercialquantitiesofnaturalgas.theseprocessesaremuchmoreindustrialin nature, labor intensive, and technologically advanced than conventional shallow gas development. Unconventionalnaturalgasshalesarealsoknownasacontinuousgeologicalformation.Asacontinuous formation, unconventional shale does require higher technology inputs but also reduces the development risk found in conventional formations, which rely on finding pockets of natural gas. Additionally, the energy companies and contractors that initially developed and utilized the unconventional shale drilling and extraction technology were mostly national or international companies and primarily utilized contractors and personnel with legacy shale gas knowledge from aroundthecountryandfromotherpartsoftheworldtobegindevelopingmarcellusshale. ExtractionTimeline Lifespantotalingapproximately30 50years PipelineConstruction Constructiontimedependsonpipelinelength Permitting Drilling NaturalGasProduction Upto2mos days Wellscanbeproductiveovera30 50yearperiod Pre Drilling Drilling&Completion Production/Reclamation GeologyStudies StakingWell Production Stimulation Reclaiming Uptosixmonths 30 60days 1 2wks. 1month+ MineralRights 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter Figure9:PhasesandTimelineofDevelopmentofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasWells History has shown that predicting future trends of the natural gas industry can be challenging and estimatingtheworkforcerequirementsofthisparticularindustryrepresentsanevengreaterchallenge. Naturalgasdevelopmenttrendscanbedifficulttopredictascommodityprices,technologicalchanges, 2011MarcellusShaleEducation&TrainingCenter19

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