Introduction to the Energy Statistics Division of IEA Why and how to collect necessary energy statistics

Transcription

1 IEA Data Training Workshop for Energy Community IEA, Paris, November 2010 Introduction to the Energy Statistics Division of IEA Why and how to collect necessary energy statistics Jean-Yves Garnier Head, Energy Statistics Division International Energy Agency

2 Any socio economic category needs statistics to operate. This is also true for energy statistics. A few examples: Households: electricity consumption of houses, heating bills, Utility XYZ mileage of cars,

3 Any socio economic category needs statistics to operate. This is also true for energy statistics. A few examples: Company managers Energy bills, consumption/tonne, where to save Even truer for energy companies Refinery: throughputs, stocks Electricity generation: fuel input, electricity production

4 A few examples: Any socio economic category needs statistics to operate. This is also true for energy statistics. Households: mileage of cars, electricity consumption of houses, heating bills, etc. Company managers Energy bills, consumption/tonne, where to save Even truer for energy companies Refinery: throughputs, stocks Electricity generation: fuel input, electricity production Analysts of the energy market: oil, gas, etc. Traders, banks, universities, etc. Policy makers

5 Importance of energy statistics for policy makers IEA Member countries have an obligation to hold 90 days of stocks (net imports/consumption) Need reliable and timely data on imports, consumption and stocks OPEC Member countries: production vs quota Need reliable and timely data on production EU Member countries: obligation to have a minimum share of electricity consumption coming from renewables (21% by 2010) Need reliable data on renewables Annex 1 countries to the Conference of Parties: respect of the engagement they have ratified when signing the Kyoto Protocol (70% to 80% of GHG come from fuel combustion) Need reliable data on both supply and demand

6 What statistics to collect? Households Energy Unit Cooking Oil Services Coal Physical Unit Agriculture Heating Natural Gas Electricity Socio-Economic Industry Transport Lighting Mining Biomass Money

7 What statistics to collect? Collecting any statistics has a cost However not having proper information could lead to higher costs So, limit the collecting to what is necessary What is necessary depends on your needs

8 A Growing Statistics Need for the IEA Member countries IEA OECD Autonomous Agency of the OECD Established in 1974 after 1 st Oil Crisis 28 Members Countries (vs. 33+ for OECD) 3 Es: Energy security, Economy and Environment

9 How IEA Statistics developed over time US$/bl Production Imports/Exports Stocks Diversity (gas, coal, electricity) Consumption Transformation End-Use Socio-Economic Production Security Price Dependency Oil prices at $37/bl Emissions Efficiency Efficiency Efficiency Establishment of the IEA Prices escalating st st Oil Crisis 2 nd Oil Crisis Rio Summit Kyoto Protocol

10 A few Basic Principles for Establishing an Energy Information System Do not collect statistics for the sake of collecting statistics but collect only statistics which are needed Establish a legal basis Establish a proper reporting mechanism: Questionnaires (as user friendly as possible) A network of focal points An agreed timetable Allocate proper resources to collect/process the data Establish proper dissemination mechanism Do not lock the system. Keep the system live in order to anticipate the evolution of the energy situation

11 Establish a Legal Basis AGREEMENT ON AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY PROGRAM (As amended to to 7 th th August 1992) Decisions of Governing Board ACCORD RELATIF A UN PROGRAMME INTERNATIONAL DE L ENERGIE (Tel qu amendé jusqu au 7 août 1992) ÜBEREINKOMMEN ÜBER EIN INTERNATIONALES ENERGIEPROGRAMM (In der Fassung vom August 1992) + Decisions of Specific Committees (Emergency preparedness, etc.)

12 Establish a proper reporting mechanism (OECD) Five Annual Energy Questionnaires Other Annual: Energy Forecast and R&D Budget for IEA Quarterly Questionnaires: Prices and Taxes questionnaire Monthly Questionnaires: Monthly Oil and Gas Statistics, Joint Oil Data Initiative Electricity production and trade Exceptional Questionnaires: Mainly in case of oil crisis, or ad-hoc activities (e.g.: Non-Energy Use Network)

13 What flows are collected? Production Import Export International Marine Bunkers Stock Changes Domestic Supply Transfers Statistical Differences Transformation Sector (18 sub-sectors) Energy Sector (16 sub-sectors) Distribution Losses Final Consumption Industry Sector (13 sub-sectors) Transport (7 sub-sectors) Other Sectors (4 sub-sectors) Non Energy Uses Electricity and Heat Outputs TOTAL: 95 FLOWS

14 What products are collected? Coal (17 products/categories) Natural gas Crude Oil and Petroleum products (25 products) Nuclear Energy Hydro Energy Renewable Energy (19 products/categories) Waste Energy (3 products/categories) Electricity Heat (7 categories) TOTAL: over 75 products/categories

15 An agreed timetable Prepared in June-July National Administrations Work from August to September Sent at end July Queries Sent back to the IEA before end of September

16 How non OECD are collected OECD (33 countries) Non OECD Europe (11 countries) Former Soviet Union (15 countries) A network of statistics contacts in 130 countries Asia (17 countries) Latin America (22 countries) Africa (26 countries) Middle East (13 countries)

17 How non OECD data are collected (cont.) FAO UN EUROSTAT OAPEC WORLD BANK OPEC AFREPREN

18 The annual IEA statistics cycle Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Questionnaires Processing Databases Publications and CD-ROMS

19 A need to maintain an up to date database : Monthly data (1) Monthly Oil Questionnaires Monthly Oil Questionnaire Production Imports/Exports by Origin and destination Refinery data Deliveries Stock levels Stocks on on national territory Stocks held for for other countries Stocks held abroad Stocks owned on on national Territory Stocks in in bonded areas Stocks held by by major consumers Stocks on on board incoming vessels Stocks by by governments All All other stocks

20 Monthly oil data (2) JODI Joint Oil Data Initiative JODI Limited data points but timely Joint APEC/Eurostat/IEA/IEF/OLADE/ OPEC/UNSD questionnaire Production Imports/Exports by Origin and destination Refinery data Deliveries Stock levels Production Imports Exports Stocks Closing Change Refinery Intake Crude Oil Refinery Output Imports Exports Stocks Demand Closing Change LPG Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil Data for M-1

21 How are monthly data collected and released? National Administrations Emergency Policy MODS Monthly Oil Survey July 2004 M O S ORGANISATION FOR UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION OF THE ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION STATISTICAL DIVISION EUROPEAN AND DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITIES INTERNATIONAL ENERGY ECONOMIC COMMISSION EUROSTAT AGENCY FOR EUROPE COMMITTEE FOR STATISTICAL DIVISION ENERGY ENERGY POLICY (QUEST/OIL/1/Rev.1) UNIT Attached is the annual questionnaire which provides for the submission of 2000 data and a revision of 1999 data where applicable. Administrations are requested to complete the questionnaire at the latest 31 October However, if data are available earlier, please do not hesitate to send your questionnaire to the Head of Division, Energy Statistics, Combined Energy Staff, OECD, who will forward the data to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (Geneva). In addition, Member States of the European Union and Candidate Countries are requested to transmit the completed questionnaire to Eurostat, Head of Unit, Energy Statistics, Bâtiment Jean Monnet, Plateau du Kirschberg, L-2920, Luxembourg. M-2 25th Oil Market Analysis J O D I Crude Oil Production Imports Exports Closing Stocks Change Refinery Intake 25 th -1st Petroleum Products LPG Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Fuel Oil Total Oil Oil Refinery Output Imports Exports Closing Stocks Change Demand M-1 M-2 Global Database

22 Establish a proper dissemination mechanism Books CDs Internet Most visited page on the IEA website Free access to Administrations Subscription for others Pay-per-view also available

23 Samples of free information available on the web

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25 Organisation of the International Energy Agency Energy Statistics Information Systems EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Special Assistant DEPUTY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Special Assistant Communication & Information Office Legal Counsel Office of the Chief Economist Personnel & Finance DIRECTORATE OF GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE DIRECTORATE OF ENERGY MARKETS AND SECURITY DIRECTORATE OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY & TECHNOLOGY Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific & Latin America Energy Diversification Oil Industry & Markets Energy Efficiency & Environment Energy Technology Policy Country Studies Energy Technology Collaboration Renewable Energy Unit Emergency Policy

26 Energy Statistics Division The Heart of the Agency ENERGY MARKETS AND SECURITY SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY & TECHNOLOGY Energy Statistics Division CHIEF ECONOMIST GLOBAL ENERGY DIALOGUE

27 Allocate Proper Resources: The IEA Energy Statistics Division Monthly and Annual Oil and Gas Statistics Desktop Publishing Head of Division ESD employs 30 persons including 22 statisticians allocated by data frequency and activity as follows: Quarterly Coal and Electricity, Annual Electricity, Coal and Renewables Statistics Secretariat Monthly Data 26% Oil 26% Quarterly Data 11% Balances and emissions 16% Annual OilData Coal, Electricity 42% Prices Energy balances 11% Non-member and countries and 21% Coal CO2 Emissions 8% Natural Gas Renewables Electricity Prices and Taxes and Heat 8% Gas Annual Energy 5% Renewables Balances, 5% CO2 emissions Non-member countries 21% Non OECD Member Countries Annual Energy Statistics and Balances for Non-OECD countries

28 Problems encountered in energy statistics Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) More work passed to statistics offices: More companies to survey (liberalisation) Renewables (remote information) Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) Environment (estimation of GHG emissions,.) Etc. Resources do not follow work load: Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts Fast turnover in staff Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity

29 The past situation in energy statistics offices 40s 50s Retirement age 30s 20s gaining experience passing experience

30 The current situation environment modelling 30s policy 40s private sector 50s Retirement age 20s efficiency Temptation to move away from statistics is high Young statisticians only stay a few years Not enough time to have a full grasp of energy statistics No time to transmit their expertise

31 How the IEA tackles these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings Harmonisation and Cooperation

32 Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics A user-friendly manual to give necessary information to newcomers to understand/complete annual questionnaires

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37 The joint IEA/OECD/Eurostat manual is now available in 8 languages and soon in 9 English French German Turkish Spanish Russian Chinese Indonesian An Arabic version is under preparation

38 How the IEA tackles these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings Harmonisation and Cooperation

39 Current Current Current situation situation situation No No direct direct link link between between policy policy makers makers and and statisticians statisticians Raising the profile of statistics and the role of statisticians

40 In fact, the relationship between policy makers, analysts and statisticians should be more based on a 3 way 3 street Decision makers Need the right data immediately Allocation of resources The ones who do the work Should be fully involved in the whole process Statisticians need to understand why they collect the data Policy makers need to understand the problems faced by statisticians Prime users of the data Advisors to policy makers Interface between policy makers and statisticians Lobby Comments on data

41 Raising the profile On 19 November 2005, an example of how the profile of statistics can be raised is the launch of the JODI Database by King Abdullah

42 How the IEA tackles these problems Facilitating the work of newcomers in statistics: Energy Statistics Manual User-friendly electronic questionnaires Training Raising the profile of energy statistics and the role of statisticians Ministerial meetings Governing Board Meetings Harmonisation and Cooperation

43 Harmonisation and Cooperation Mexico is a member country of 4 major organisations Secretaria de Energía Mexico UN 5% gap Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd) APEC IEA OLADE OPEC UN

44 JODI: Cooperation between countries, organisations and companies Russia PR of China Egypt Gabon India UN South Africa APEC Indonesia Philippines UK Netherlands 3 rd JODI Conference Mexico, May 2002 Germany EUROSTAT Belgium US France IEA/ OECD Denmark Canada Japan Norway Saudi Arabia OPEC Libya Brazil OLADE Mexico Australia Kuwait Iran Nigeria Venezuela Colombia Argentina 2008

45 The JODI database is open to all and updated every month The database is now used by analysts, oil companies, traders, governments world wide.

46 InterEnerStat Strengthening Harmonisation and Cooperation 2 nd InterEnerStat Workshop, November 2007, IEA, Paris 21 international/regional organisations Both data providers and users Harmonisation of definitions Common training sessions A joint website

47 Harmonising definitions seem easy The example of crude oil production ---- An electronic discussion was launched between the 6 JODI organisations UN OPEC Hundreds of s and no real agreement on a harmonised definition in fact, it is not!

48 Close to an agreement on harmonised definitions

49 So, one questionnaire to all, dream or reality? FAO UN EUROSTAT OAPEC? AFREC OPEC

50 Do not lock the system. Keep the system live to anticipate the evolution of the energy situation There are constant changes in the energy sector New products Orimulsion Oil shale, tar sands LNG Ethanol New forms of energy Wind Photovoltaic Hydrogen New players Liberalisation Development of trade (oil, coal, gas, electricity) New Needs Kyoto protocol Energy efficiency

51 The Indicator Pyramid Aggregated Indicators TPES/GDP TPES/Production Electricity Cons./Population CO2/GDP PPP Efficiency Elec. Prod. Only a minimum set of indicators can be derived from basic statistics: So the need for more detailed indicators and consequently data Disaggregated Indicators Process Efficiency Cons./ton cement Heating Cons./sqm/DD Litre/100km (stock) Dry process Condensing boiler Litre/100km (vintage)

52 A NEW QUESTIONNAIRE ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY

53 A Quick Overview of the Agenda Monday 15 Tuesday 16 Wednesday 17 Thursday 18 Oil Renewables (cont.) Final Energy Consumption Analysis Opening Introduction to Energy Statistics Division of IEA Why Collect Energy Statistics? Energy Statistics in the Energy Community Coal France Coal (cont.) Electricity and Heat Lunch (IEA) Checks and consistency Energy Balances Periodic/Monthly Energy Statistics Energy Efficiency Conclusion and Closing Gas Renewables CO2 Emissions

54 A few words to conclude Energy statistics are the basis for any sound energy policy. As a consequence, it is essential to allocate proper resources to collect the necessary data for monitoring and planning You don t build reliable statistics overnight. It takes time, effort, regulation/law, resources, It took 30+ years for the IEA to establish its statistics and to become one of the world references and we are constantly expending coverage and struggling for improving quality Harmonisation and cooperation are two key words to improve quality and coverage of energy statistics The IEA is extremely committed to strengthen cooperation with OECD member countries, with major non-oecd countries as well as with regional and international organisations This is the reason why we are delighted to be with you for the next three days in order for us to better understand strengths and weaknesses of energy statistics in the Energy Community and Mozambique and for sharing our own experience of international energy statistics. It is our sincere hope that this workshop will further strengthen the relationship between the Energy Community, Mozambique and the IEA. Thank you