The Future Cost of Wind Power

Transcription

1 The Future Cost of Wind Power Capital costs, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), economics, costs and future outlook for wind power generation Publishing date: January 2015 Publishing code: PGRFutCosWindJan15 1

2 About the author The author of this report is Paul Breeze. Dr Paul Breeze has specialized in the electricity sector for the past 30 years. He is contributing editor for the monthly international magazine for the power industry, Modern Power Systems and a regular contributor to Power Engineering International. As a freelance writer he has written for The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Observer, New Scientist and The Economist. He is the author of energy sector reports for FT Energy, Business Insights and Power Generation Research and is the author of Power Generation Technologies published by Elsevier. 2

3 Disclaimer This report is published by Power Generation Research Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction or redistribution of the report in any form for any purpose is expressly prohibited without the prior consent of Power Generation Research Ltd. The report has been compiled using information from reliable sources and reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the information is correct. However Power Generation Research Ltd makes no warranties (either express or implied) as to, nor accepts liability for, the accuracy or fitness for a particular purpose of the information or advice contained herein. Power Generation Research Ltd wishes to make it clear that any views or opinions expressed in this report are personal views and opinions of the author(s) or contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Power Generation Research Ltd. Copyright 2015 Power Generation Research Ltd Note about authors and sources Power Generation Research Ltd is dedicated to supplying its readers with the best information available. To this end the company employs experienced authors who are asked to strive to ensure that they use the most recent data available to them at the time of publication. Power Generation Research Ltd seeks to ensure that no more-timely data has been omitted but can make no warranties in this regard. 3

4 Table of contents About the author... 2 Disclaimer... 3 Note about authors and sources... 3 Table of contents... 4 Table of tables... 5 Table of figures... 5 Executive summary... 6 Chapter 1 The economics of wind power... 6 Chapter 2 Future market and economic prospects for wind power generation... 6 Chapter 1. The economics of wind power... 7 Summary... 7 Introduction... 7 Wind turbine and capital cost trends... 9 Levelized cost of wind power Chapter 2. Future market and economic prospects for wind power generation Summary Introduction Cost comparisons Growth predictions Regional growth Europe Asia North America Latin America Africa Conclusion List of abbreviations

5 Table of tables Table 1: Breakdown of capital costs for onshore wind installation (%), Table 2: Wind, onshore and offshore capital cost trends from ($kw), Table 3: Levelized cost trends from ($/MWh), Table 4: Wind, regional capital and levelized costs ($/MWh), Table 5: Levelized cost variations for wind ($/MWh), Table 6: Levelized cost comparisons ($/MWh), Table 7: Levelized cost predictions 2019 and 2040 ($/MWh), Table 8: Levelized cost of wind power estimates ( /MWh), Table 9: Onshore and offshore wind, levelized cost predictions ( /MWh), Table 10: Global wind capacity growth forecasts (MW), Table 11: Wind energy growth predictions (TWh), Table 12: Regional wind capacity additions (MW), Table of figures Figure 1: Breakdown of capital costs for onshore wind installation (%), Figure 2: Wind, onshore and offshore capital cost trends from ($kw), Figure 3: Levelized cost trends from ($/MWh), Figure 4: Wind, regional capital costs ($/MWh), Figure 5: Wind, regional levelized costs ($/MWh), Figure 6: Levelized cost variations for wind ($/MWh), Figure 7: Levelized cost comparisons ($/MWh), Figure 8: Levelized cost predictions 2019 and 2040 ($/MWh), Figure 9: Levelized cost of wind power estimates ( /MWh), Figure 10: Onshore and offshore wind, levelized cost predictions ( /MWh), Figure 11: Global wind capacity growth forecasts (MW), Figure 12: Wind energy growth predictions (TWh), Figure 13: Regional wind capacity additions (MW),