The Compound Semiconductor Industry; How Did It Get Here and Where Is It Going? Eric Higham Strategy Analytics

Transcription

1 The Compound Semiconductor Industry; How Did It Get Here and Where Is It Going? Eric Higham Strategy Analytics

2 Agenda (Brief) Introduction Strategy Analytics and my coverage area Investigate the Compound Semi Market Definition and setting the stage Focus on the RF Market GaAs/GaN and the drivers The Future Trends and forecasts Conclusions Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 2

3 Advanced Semiconductor Applications (ASA) Service Tracking Semiconductor Technology to End Applications Applications Components Technologies GaAs GaN InP SiGe Silicon SiC Other Consumer Electronics Cellular handsets Wi-Fi Satellite & CATV Solid-state lighting Lasers Networks Wireless base stations & backhaul Fiber transport Broadband (wired & wireless) VSAT Automotive Electronics Sensing technologies Aerospace & Defense Radar, EW, Communications High Power Electronics Medical Electronics Instrumentation Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 3

4 Agenda (Brief) Introduction Strategy Analytics and my coverage area Investigate the Compound Semi Market Definition and setting the stage Focus on the RF Market GaAs/GaN and the drivers The Future Trends and forecasts Conclusions Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 4

5 What IS a Compound Semiconductor? Source: Intech Source: Wikipedia Source: Sumitomo Electric Industries Source: CompoundSemiconductor.net Simply put semiconductors with two or more elements III-V is a common term, but not all inclusive Combination of elements is done to achieve a performance advantage Frequency, power, efficiency, etc. Lack the volume/low cost manufacturing ecosystem of silicon Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 5

6 Compound Semiconductor Market Drivers Convergence of voice, video and data networks enables the explosive growth in data traffic Data traffic growth drives the entire market CAAGR of mobile data growth is ~70% since 2009! Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 6

7 Compound Semiconductor Demand: Supports and enables: Evolution of wireless, consumer and industrial devices Next generation wired and wireless networks Automotive advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) Defense transition to network-centric battlefield philosophies Solid-state lighting High power electronics Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 7

8 The Compound Semiconductor Device Market Source: Strategy Analytics LED market is the largest ~60% of the market revenue HPE is the fastest growing Silicon is the incumbent RF growth will be slow ~25% of the market in 2020 Total compound semi market is estimated at ~$24B Anticipated to grow to ~$44B in 2020 Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 8

9 Agenda (Brief) Introduction Strategy Analytics and my coverage area Investigate the Compound Semi Market Definition and setting the stage Focus on the RF Market GaAs/GaN and the drivers The Future Trends and forecasts Conclusions Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 9

10 GaN Advantages Material Properties Si GaAs GaN Saturation velocity (cm/s) 1 x x x 10 7 Breakdown E-field (MV/cm) e - mobility (cm 2 /Vs) E g bandgap (ev) F t (GHz) FET Power density (W/mm) >30 Thermal conductivity (W/cm/K) ~2.0 Source: Strategy Analytics Superior frequency, efficiency, voltage breakdown, speed, temperature, power density, current density Device characteristics provide a host of advantages: Higher efficiency means less DC power, less need for cooling Higher frequency operation encompasses more applications Temperature performance enables electronics closer to the antenna Higher power density means higher power output performance Or the same power output but with fewer components Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 10

11 Total RF GaN Device Revenue Source: Strategy Analytics Commercial market gaining traction Dominated by infrastructure Defense nurtured the technology DARPA funding and programs GaN revenue jump in 2014 is driven by China LTE infrastructure deployments Total revenue CAAGR of ~60% from Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 11

12 2015 RF GaN Device Revenue Segmentation Infrastructure is largest segment Anticipating strong defense growth Radar, comms, EW Source: Strategy Analytics Commercial RF GaN applications currently accounts for ~60% of revenue Defense growth will reduce this gap Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 12

13 Historical GaAs Device Revenue 11% CAAGR since 2004 Exceeded $7B for the first time >$8B including foundry DoD funding in the 1990s changed the applications Wireless Revolution changed the trajectory! Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 13

14 2014 GaAs Device Revenue Segmentation Source: Strategy Analytics Cellular terminals drive revenue Just about exclusively PAs! Wireless segment dominates the GaAs device market Segment accounts for ~80% of total revenue Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 14

15 Conclusions (Past & Present) Government funding developed the GaAs ecosystem Performance is the fuel Commercial applications are the growth engine for the market Growth of GaAs drove the growth of other compound semi technologies InP, SiC, SiGe, GaN all offer performance advantages Compound semi component industry has grown to ~$24B Silicon is the biggest competitive technology Under fire as the incumbent technology in the HPE market Capturing share in the RF and LED segments Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 15

16 Agenda (Brief) Introduction Strategy Analytics and my coverage area Investigate the Compound Semi Market Definition and setting the stage Focus on the RF Market GaAs/GaN and the drivers The Future Trends and forecasts Conclusions Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 16

17 Storm Clouds on the Horizon? Source: Strategy Analytics Handset growth is slowing ~3% CAAGR to reach ~2.1B in 2020 Smartphone growth is slowing ~7% CAAGR ~43% CAAGR ! This is notable because it s actually smartphone PAs that drive the GaAs industry! Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 17

18 Increasing Complexity in Smartphones Switches 73 switch throws 10 discretes + 3 in modules Amplifiers 16 power amplifier paths 2 LNAs Filters 7 duplexers 26 BPF Bands Quad-EDGE W-CDMA: B1, B2, B3, B4, B5, B8 Sub-bands: 9, 10, 18, 19, 20, 26 TD-SCDMA: B34, B39 TD-LTE: B38, B39, B40, B41 FD-LTE: B3, B7, B8 Source: Strategy Analytics Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 18

19 The 5G Vision Source: Nokia Unlimited access to information and the ability to share data anywhere, anytime by anyone and anything Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 19

20 The Challenge Source: ITU Recommendation ITU-R M , September 2015 Qualcomm/Heavyreading Webinar Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 20

21 Network Architecture Vision Source: Ericsson Architectural Pillars MIMO Beamforming Wi-Fi Ultra-dense deployments Vehicle-to-vehicle M2M (IoT) Device-to-device Cooperative devices Multi-hop communication Many (compound) semiconductor opportunities that revolve around: Better performance Lower cost Higher reliability Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 21

22 Transport Network Vision Optical transport: 100 Tbps E-band backhaul: 80 Gbps Macrocell: 50 Gbps Small Cells: 100 Gbps 3.bp.blogspot.com Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 22

23 RF GaN Market Share Forecast Source: Strategy Analytics Infrastructure remains the largest segment Fast growth propels defense applications to nearly 50% of the market in 2020 ~$690M in 2020 Commercial RF GaN applications, particularly infrastructure are growing Infrastructure revenue profile will be a bit uneven Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 23

24 2014 GaAs Device Market Share Forecast Source: Strategy Analytics Wireless will continue to be ~80% Cellular terminals will be 50-55% of total Anticipate slow growth for the GaAs device market Silicon will provide a headwind Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 24

25 Agenda (Brief) Introduction Strategy Analytics and my coverage area Investigate the Compound Semi Market Definition and setting the stage Focus on the RF Market GaAs/GaN and the drivers The Future Trends and forecasts Conclusions Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 25

26 Conclusions (Future) The overall compound semiconductor market is poised for good growth ~13% CAAGR will just about double revenue by 2020 The growth trajectories will not be the same for all segments LED segment will remain the largest GaN-on-silicon will begin making inroads HPE segment will see the fastest growth for compound semis GaN and SiC will offer greatly improved performance capabilities RF segment will be a bit uneven Increasing RF content will offset slowing smartphone growth 5G is the wildcard it will be a growth driver for the semiconductor industry But will this benefit silicon or a compound semiconductor technology?? Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 26

27 Thank You! Eric Higham Strategy Analytics Copyright 2016 Strategy Analytics 27