The Dog Ate My Home. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. On Behalf of Carroll County. March 21, 2012

Transcription

1 The Dog Ate My Home On Behalf of Carroll County By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. March 21, 2012

2 Penny wise, Euro foolish

3 Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2013* Source: International Monetary Fund * data are projections

4 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2008 % Change 3 London SE FTSE % 1 NYSE Group DJI A -33.8% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -34.2% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -35.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -39.6% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -40.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -40.2% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 5 Euronext CAC % 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -47.9% 10 Borsa Italiana MIBTel -48.5% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -65.4% Source: Yahoo! Finance

5 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2009 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2009 % Change 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite 77.2% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 51.4% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 43.7% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 31.2% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 29.9% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 26.8% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General 26.7% 3 London SE FTSE % 5 Euronext CAC % 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB 19.5% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 18.4% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % Source: Yahoo! Finance

6 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2010 Growth Rank Exchange Index 2010 % Change 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 16.9% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX 16.1% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 14.4% 1 NYSE Group DJI A 11.0% 3 London SE FTSE % 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index 5.3% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -1.7% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 5 Euronext CAC % 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -13.2% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -14.3% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -19.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance

7 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 YTD Growth through Third Quarter Rank Exchange Index % Change 1 NYSE Group DJI A -5.7% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -9.0% 3 London SE FTSE % 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -13.5% 8 Bolsa De Medrid Madrid General -14.0% 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -14.1% 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -16.0% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -20.4% 5 Euronext CAC % 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -23.6% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -26.5% Source: Yahoo! Finance

8 Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth Rank Exchange Index % Change 1 NYSE Group DJI A 5.5% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite -1.8% 3 London SE FTSE % 12 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market -7.8% 9 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite -9.2% 8 Bolsa De Medrid IGBM -14.6% 6 Frankfurt SE DAX -14.7% 5 Euronext CAC % 4 Tokyo SE Nikkei % 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -20.0% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -21.7% 10 Borsa Italiana FTSE MIB -25.2% Source: Yahoo! Finance

9 All dressed up with no place to go

10 Recession Watch as of May 2009 Source: Moody s Economy

11 Industrial Production January 2001 through January 2012 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

12 Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2011Q4 2011Q4: 3.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

13 Recession Watch as of April 2010 Source: Moody s Economy

14 Recession Watch as of December 2011 Source: Moody s Economy

15 Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2001 through February 2012 Between February 2011 and February 2012, the nation gained 2,021,000 jobs. 2/12: +227K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups February 2011 v. February 2012 All told 2,021K Jobs Gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) January 2011 v. January 2012 Absolute Change MD Total: +39.8K; +1.6% US Total: +2,014K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18 Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) January 2012 v. January 2011 Percent Change Rank State % Rank State % Rank State % 1 NORTH DAKOTA 5.67% 16 IDAHO 1.32% 34 MAINE 0.66% 2 UTAH 2.48% 19 ARIZONA 1.32% 36 PENNSYLVANIA 0.66% 3 TEXAS 2.47% 19 NEW JERSEY 1.31% 36 IOWA 0.62% 4 WEST VIRGINIA 2.36% 19 NORTH CAROLINA 1.30% 38 OREGON 0.61% 5 LOUISIANA 2.17% 22 OHIO 1.23% 38 ILLINOIS 0.52% 6 TENNESSEE 2.12% 23 KANSAS 1.23% 40 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.42% 7 GEORGIA 2.09% 24 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.22% 40 MASSACHUSETTS 0.38% 8 COLORADO 1.94% 25 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.20% 42 ARKANSAS 0.37% 9 OKLAHOMA 1.93% 26 VIRGINIA 1.12% 43 NEBRASKA 0.36% 10 NEW YORK 1.62% 26 WYOMING 1.09% 44 DELAWARE 0.17% 11 MICHIGAN 1.57% 28 CALIFORNIA 0.90% 45 MONTANA 0.14% 11 MARYLAND 1.57% 29 VERMONT 0.87% 46 ALABAMA -0.10% 13 KENTUCKY 1.56% 29 NEW MEXICO 0.80% 46 MISSOURI -0.15% 13 WASHINGTON 1.52% 31 NEVADA 0.80% 48 MISSISSIPPI -0.27% 13 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.47% 32 FLORIDA 0.75% 49 ALASKA -0.27% 16 INDIANA 1.37% 33 HAWAII 0.75% 49 RHODE ISLAND -0.28% 16 MINNESOTA 1.34% 34 CONNECTICUT 0.74% 51 WISCONSIN -0.46% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.5%

19 Baltimore Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) January 2011 v. January 2012 Absolute Change Baltimore Total: +21.2K; +1.7% MD Total: +39.8K; +1.6% US Total: +2,014K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Washington, DC Arlington Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) January 2011 v. January 2012 Absolute Change DC MSA Total: +20.2K; +0.7% US Total: +2,014K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) January 2012 Rank State Rate Rank State Rate Rank State Rate 1 NORTH DAKOTA 3.2% 16 WISCONSIN 6.9% 34 WASHINGTON 8.3% 2 NEBRASKA 4.0% 19 DELAWARE 7.0% 36 ARIZONA 8.7% 3 SOUTH DAKOTA 4.2% 19 MAINE 7.0% 36 INDIANA 8.7% 4 VERMONT 5.0% 19 NEW MEXICO 7.0% 38 KENTUCKY 8.8% 5 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.2% 22 ALASKA 7.2% 38 OREGON 8.8% 6 IOWA 5.4% 23 TEXAS 7.3% 40 MICHIGAN 9.0% 7 WYOMING 5.5% 24 WEST VIRGINIA 7.4% 40 NEW JERSEY 9.0% 8 MINNESOTA 5.6% 25 MISSOURI 7.5% 42 GEORGIA 9.2% 9 UTAH 5.7% 26 ARKANSAS 7.6% 43 SOUTH CAROLINA 9.3% 10 VIRGINIA 5.8% 26 PENNSYLVANIA 7.6% 44 ILLINOIS 9.4% 11 KANSAS 6.1% 28 OHIO 7.7% 45 FLORIDA 9.6% 11 OKLAHOMA 6.1% 29 ALABAMA 7.8% 46 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 9.9% 13 HAWAII 6.5% 29 COLORADO 7.8% 46 MISSISSIPPI 9.9% 13 MARYLAND 6.5% 31 CONNECTICUT 8.0% 48 NORTH CAROLINA 10.2% 13 MONTANA 6.5% 32 IDAHO 8.1% 49 CALIFORNIA 10.9% 16 LOUISIANA 6.9% 33 TENNESSEE 8.2% 49 RHODE ISLAND 10.9% 16 MASSACHUSETTS 6.9% 34 NEW YORK 8.3% 51 NEVADA 12.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: January 12= 8.3%

22 Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros (NSA) December 2011 Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN- New York-Northern New Jersey- 1 WI Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Baltimore-Towson, MD Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN- WI San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA- 9 NJ-DE-MD Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 10.0 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 10.6 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 12.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

23 MD County Unemployment Rates December 2011 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County Kent County Montgomery County Garrett County Calvert County Talbot County Saint Mary s County Allegany County Charles County Caroline County Frederick County Cecil County Carroll County Washington County Anne Arundel County Somerset County Harford County Wicomico County Prince George's County Baltimore City Queen Anne s County Dorchester County Baltimore County Worcester County 15.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 Carroll County Unemployment Rate (NSA) January 2001 through December 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

25 Carroll County Employment Net Change (NSA) January 2001 through December 2011 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

26 It could be worse, right??

27 15 Year & 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through January 2012 Source: Freddie Mac

28 U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through January 2012 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

29 U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through February 2012 Source: Economy.com

30 Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction February 2011 v. February 2012 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Feb. 11: 11.2 months; Feb. 12: 8.2 months

31 Housing Inventory by Suburban MD February 2011 v. February 2012 Source: Maryland Association of Realtors Maryland = Feb. 11: 11.2 months; Feb. 12: 8.2 months

32 A penny saved is a penny earned

33 U.S. Personal Savings Rate January 2002 through January 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis;

34 U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2001 through February 2012 Source: Census

35 U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store February 2011 v. February 2012 Source: Economy.com *Drug store sales not available for February 2012

36 National Vehicle Sales January 2004 through February 2012 (SAAR) Source: Autodata Corp.

37 Maryland Auto Sales September 2001 through January 2012 Source: Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration Jan. 12 New Car Sales: 25,223; up 13.4% from January 11 Jan. 12 Used Car Sales: 46,367; up 7.1% from January 11

38 Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through January 2012 January 2012 = 94.9 where 2004=100 Source: Conference Board

39 It s difficult to forecast, particularly the future Economy hit a soft patch; Carroll County future is in best schools possible; Recession no longer imminent; Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; Many headwinds remain and the nascent recovery could easily falter; and Leading threats to the U.S. recovery are political, not economic.

40 Thank You You can always reach me at If you appreciate this type of information and would like regular updates, please see our newsletter service at Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at ( SAGE) Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.