Population Density Estimates and Fecal Production Rates

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1 1 Population Density Estimates and Fecal Production Rates Lucas Gregory Texas Water Resources Institute

2 2 After each set of data are presented, General Consensus of the Attoyac Bayou Watershed Partnership will be sought. Numbers agreed upon by the Partnership will be used for watershed modeling purposes to predict E. coli loads from modeled sources throughout the watershed.

3 3 Density Estimates Used to estimate bacteria contributions Animal estimates are strongly tied to specific land uses or covers Will be direct inputs to the SELECT model Estimates Are Needed For: Cattle Deer Dogs Feral Hogs Horses Poultry provided by TSSWCB Septic Systems (OSSFs) Also helps to plan future management

4 4 How do We Get These Estimates Published Data Local, regional, state and national data sets Councils of Government, AgriLife Extension, IRNR, NRCS, TPWD, TWRI, USDA Information From You No one knows the watershed like you do What are the average numbers for the watershed These data were presented at the last meeting Animal density/population survey completed by you at the last stakeholder meeting

5 5 Attoyac Bayou Population Survey Survey Results Only 7 survey s returned after last meeting Numbers were relatively consistent Numbers also agreed with published numbers Please complete this survey with information that you feel most accurately describes typical animal numbers or population estimates for the Attoyac Bayou watershed. The number presented below are those that were covered in the previous presentation and are based upon the best available data that are collected at local, regional, state and national scales. The table below illustrates the most up to date look at land uses and land covers for the watershed and may be useful in estimating appropriate animal numbers. Attoyac Bayou Land Use and Land Cover Land Use / Land Cover Type Acres Percent Forested Land 119, % Managed Pasture 69, % Pine Plantation 67, % Near Riparian Forested Land 57, % Rangeland/Unimproved Pasture 23, % Developed Low Intensity 6, % Developed Open Space 3, % Open Water 2, % Mixed Forest 2, % Barren Land 1, % Developed Medium Intensity % Cultivated Crops % Developed High Intensity % Total Watershed Acres 354,629 Cattle Population Estimates: NRCS Stocking Rate Estimate: NASS Statistics: Your Estimate: Assumed Cattle are on 3 ac/au on Managed Pasture Managed Pasture And 12 ac/au on Unimproved Pasture Unimproved Pasture 25,141 animal units 24,505 head Deer Population Estimates: TPWD RMU 15 Population Estimates Your Estimate: Deer assumed to inhabit All land uses except Open Water 45.2 ac/deer or Barren land and Developed Land 7,547 deer Dog Population Estimates: AMVA Avg. Dog/Household Other Watersheds Your Estimate: Number of households Derived from local dogs per household or 1 dog per household Address data: 6,638 11,285 dogs or 6,638 dogs Households in watershed

6 6 Cattle Presented Data Applied NRCS Stocking Rates 25,525 AU estimated Managed Pasture = 3 ac/au Unmanaged Pasture = 10 ac/au National Ag Statistics: 24,505 head in the watershed Density of 3.7 acres per animal Managed Pasture and Unmanaged Pasture Survey Results (head of cattle) Minimum = 18,000 Maximum = 25,000 Median = 24,505 Average = 23,646

7 7 Deer Presented Data Applied TPWD estimates to entire watershed (open water and urban excluded in TPWD estimate) RMU 15: averaged 45.2 ac/deer Survey Results Minimum = 4,000 Maximum = 7,547 Median = 7,500 Average = 6,877 Total watershed population estimate of 7,547 deer

8 8 Dogs Presented Data Number of households estimated at 6,638 using 911 address data for entire watershed Assuming 1 dog per house as in other rural Texas watersheds = 6,638 dogs Survey Results Minimum = 4,000 Maximum = 10,000 Median = 6,638 Average = 6,631 American Vet Med. Assoc. estimate of 1.7 dogs per house = 11,285 dogs

9 9 Feral Hogs Estimates Presented Data Feral Hog Numbers using State-wide Density Estimates High: 8,715 Median: 6,725 Low: 4,735 Feral Hog Estimate using Coastal Bend Density Estimate Average: 10,180 Survey Results Minimum = 3,000 Maximum = 20,000 Median = 10,180 Average = 10,155

10 10 Horses Presented Data NASS 2007 Census of Agriculture data used Scaled county estimates yielded an estimate of 542 horses in the watershed Survey Results Minimum = 400 Maximum = 1,000 Median = 542 Average = 587 Manage pasture, Unimproved Pasture and Developed Open Space all utilized

11 11 Hunting Camps Survey Results Estimated number of hunting camps in the watershed Minimum = 35 Maximum = 1,000 Median = 125 Average = 306 Sewage Disposal Method Dump on-site On-site Not OSSFs They don t Where are they Located? Forests? Pastures? Other? Even Distribution?

12 12 OSSFs: Septic Systems Presented Data 911 address data used to estimate number of households in watershed Total of 6,638 houses in watershed, of these 6,624 estimated to be on an OSSF (others were in the City of Garrison) Survey Results Minimum = 4,000 Maximum = 6,624 Median = 6,624 Average = 6,246

13 13 OSSF Failure Rates Published Data Reed, Stowe and Yanke, 2001 Report Estimated failure rates based on survey of Designated Representatives State-wide failure rate ~13%; 50% of older systems failing Region 5 (East Texas) failure rate ~19% Survey Results 25 30% of all systems are malfunctioning Less than total number are approved systems Need your suggestions for failure rates

14 14 Poultry Numbers TSSWCB WQMPs are required for poultry operations Each WQMP lists the number of birds for that operation 123 WQMPs in the watershed 12,620,404 chickens in the watershed

15 15

16 16 Fecal coliform and Fecal Material Production Rates Needed for SELECT modeling and bacteria load estimates that it predicts Quantity of fecal coliform (proxy for E. coli) produced varies by species Quantity of fecal material produced varies by species These quantities are needed to calculate a bacteria load

17 17 Fecal coliform to E. coli Conversion Fecal coliform and E. coli do not exist in equal numbers in fecal material No specific correlation exists Conversion factors typically used range from 0.5 to is most common and is derived by dividing the E. coli standard by the fecal coliform standard (126 cfu/100ml)/(200 cfu/100ml) = 0.63

18 18 Data Source: Copano Bay Report Copano Bay is impaired for elevated bacteria Good information to evaluate potential bacteria loading was not available Extensive literature review conducted to identify animal densities, fecal coliform production rates, and fecal material production rates Wagner and Moench, 2009 (TWRI TR-347)

19 19 Cattle Fecal coliform density (cfu/g of feces) Fecal material production (lbs/1,000 lbs animal live weight/day) Minimum = 6.4 E+03 (6,400) Maximum = 4.9 E+06 (4,900,000) Minimum = 40 Maximum = 104 Average = 67.5 Average = 1.1 E+06 Recommended = 82 Recommended = 2.3 E+05

20 20 Deer Fecal coliform density (cfu/g of feces) Fecal material production (lbs/1,000 lbs animal live weight/day) Minimum = 4.5 E+05 Only reported value = 15 lbs Maximum = 4.48 E+08 Average = 1.5 E+08 Recommended = 2.2 E+06

21 21 Dogs Fecal coliform density (cfu/day) Only reported value = 5.0E+09 Source: Horsley & Whitten 1996 Widely utilized by others

22 22 Feral Hogs Fecal coliform density (cfu/g of feces) Fecal material production (lbs/1,000 lbs animal live weight/day) Only reported value for feral hogs = 4.1 E+04 No reported values for feral hogs Similar to domestic swine Minimum = 4.05 E+05 Maximum = 7.1 E+06 Assumed to be similar to domestic swine Minimum = 19 Maximum = 106 Average = 56.6 Recommended = 65

23 23 Horses Fecal coliform density (cfu/g of feces) Fecal material production (lbs/1,000 lbs animal live weight/day) Minimum = 1.26 E+04 Minimum = 41 Maximum = 2.22 E+06 Maximum = 51 Average = 3.86 E+05 Average = 47.6 Recommended = 1.26 E+04 Recommended = 51

24 24 Poultry (Chickens) Fecal coliform density (cfu/g of feces) Minimum = 1.26 E+06 Maximum = 1.83 E+09 Average = 3.0 E+08 Recommended = 1.3 E+06 Fecal material production (lbs/1,000 lbs animal live weight/day) Pullets Only Reported Value = 48 Recommended = 63 Layers Minimum = 26 Maximum = 64 Average = 51 Recommended = 63 Broilers Minimum = 82 Maximum = 85 Average = 83.5 Recommended = 82

25 25 Failing OSSFs Fecal coliform density (cfu/100 ml effluent) Gallons of Effluent / Person / Day Minimum = 1.0E+05 Maximum = 1.0 E+08 Average = 5.0 E+07 Recommended = 1.0 E+07 Minimum = 45 Maximum = 100 Average = 72.5 Recommended = 70 Source: Horsley & Whitten 1996 Source: Horsley & Whitten 1996

26 26 Raw Sewage Fecal coliform density (cfu/100 ml) Gallons of Effluent / Person / Day Minimum = 1.0 E+05 Maximum = 6.3 E+06 Average = 2.47 E+06 Recommended = N/A Minimum = 45 Maximum = 100 Average = 72.5 Recommended = 70 Source: EPA 2001 Source: Horsley & Whitten 1996

27 27 WWTFs Fecal coliform density (cfu/100 ml) Depends on individual WWTF operation and effectiveness E. coli limits Assumed to discharge at 126 cfu/100ml Gallons of Effluent / WWTF / Day Depends on individual WWTF Permitted maximum discharges Assumed to discharge at maximum permitted volume

28 28 Any Questions? attoyac.tamu.edu Lucas Gregory Texas Water Resources Institute

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