MONTHLY SALMON REPORT

Transcription

1 MONTHLY SALMON REPORT NO. 03, MARCH 2006 Industriv. 18, NO-6517 Kristiansund N Norway Tel.: Fax: mail@kontali.no KONTALI ANALYSE AS

2 MONTHLY SALMON REPORT MARCH 2006 Contents Page 1 Market and production 1 development 1.1 Market development Production development 1 2 Markets EU Atlantic salmon Japan Atlantic salmon Red fleshed salmon USA Atlantic salmon Other markets 14 3 Production and sale North America Atlantic salmon Chinook Chile Atlantic salmon Trout Coho Norway Atlantic salmon Trout United Kingdom Atlantic salmon Ireland Atlantic salmon Faroe Islands Atlantic salmon Trout 44 4 Wild salmon USA Canada 47 Appendices: 1. Total statistics export salmon and trout Norway 2. Total statistics export salmon, coho and trout - Chile 3. Market supply farmed salmon world wide 4. Total statistics salmon 5. Exchange rates to Edition: No 3 / March 2006 Date: 24 March 2006 Pages: 47 Subscription: Birgit Snoen Peggy Larshus Klokseth Gunn Strandheim Publications@kontali.no All material in this publication is protected by copyright. Photocopying of any part of this publication for any purpose, copying, reproduction, transmitting in any form or by any means or storing in a retrieval system is prohibited by law, unless permission has been granted in advance by Kontali Analyse AS INTRODUCTION: Salmon farmers and stockbrokers are cheering, salmon prices to farmers have not been so high for 6 years and everybody is willing to invest in salmon. Is this development sustainable? In January and February, we noticed that consumers were willing to pay more for salmon. However, in March the prices increased at the sacrifice of intermediate industries like exporters and value adding companies. In the middle of March, the export margin (i.e. the difference between export price and FHL/NSL week price quotation) was negative. If the FHL/NLS quotation was correct, exporters lost money. We do not believe that today s price level is easy to live with for processing plants. The big question is: will consumers accept a higher price level? If yes, and the volume stays up, the margins in the intermediate industries will normalise. Fish farmers will force the harvest by taking up fish earlier than planned. If the average weight is reduced, the number of fish has to increase in order to keep the quantity level up. Less fish will be available in However, if the consumers do not accept higher prices, the fish farmers will retain their fish, the biomass will increase and 2007 will not become the year many want it to be like. This happened in the autumn of Lars Liabø Publisher: Kontali Analyse AS Industriveien 18 - NO-6517 KRISTIANSUND N - Norway Tel.: Fax: mail@kontali.no Editor: Lars Liabø Analyses/Data processing: Jan Erik Øksenvåg Ragnar Nystøyl Arnt Kjønhaug Birgit Snoen Mariëtte Glas-Albers Gunn Strandheim Knut N. Utheim Tor Arne Vang

3 DEFINITIONS WEIGHTS Live weight Product weight Harvest weight / quantity Weight of a living fish The sales quantity of a salmon product, i.e. - round bled fish (whole fish equivalent wfe) - gutted fish - head off gutted fish - fillets -smoked salmon -skin off and boneless, pieces In all trade statistics, product type is registered in product weight. Harvested fish in whole fish equivalent (wfe). All trade statistics registered in product weight are converted to whole fish equivalent (wfe) by using conversion rates corresponding to product type. WEIGHT CONVERSION RATES Atlantic salmon Trout Coho Live fish % Loss of blood/starving 6 8 % Harvest weight Round bled fish (wfe) 100 % 100 % 100 % Offal 10 % 12 % 10 % Gutted fish, approx. 90 % 88 % 90 % Head, approx. 7 9 % 8 % 15 % Head off, gutted % 80 % 75 % Fillet skin on % 60 % 60 % Fillet skin off % 50 % 50 % OTHER WORDS AND EXPRESSIONS Beginning biomass Biomass at the beginning of a period in tonnes (wfe) G Generation, year the fish is released to sea (i.e. 05G: fish released in 2005) Gross production Gross growth (live weight) in sea, biological production Loss ongrowing fish Number and weight of loss due to - mortality - escape - sorting when harvesting Loss rate Number of lost or not accepted fish in % of total number released fish Net production (growth) Gross growth in sea loss Production Growth in sea, must not be confused with harvest quantity Relative feed factor Feed consumption during a period / biomass per beginning of this period WFE Whole fish equivalent The databases which the graphs and figures are based on in this report, only generate the comma format that is common in many languages. This means that i.e. NOK 23,56 equals NOK and 5,6 % equals 5.6 %.

4 1 MARKET AND PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT 1.1 MARKET DEVELOPMENT EU The supply of Atlantic salmon to the EU turned out to be higher than indicated in the previous report. Adjustments to export figures from Norway to the EU were made and exports from Chile increased more than expected. The supply increased in January by approx. 3.9 %. The volume growth for February is estimated to be even stronger and turns out to be almost 8 %. Considering the price level, which has been 10 % above last year s level, this is a very strong increase. The average price for fresh Norwegian salmon FCA Oslo in February 2006 was NOK 26.84/kg, compared with NOK 24.12/kg in the same month in Currently in March, the prices are still increasing and the average price for this month will finish above NOK 30/kg. One of the reasons, but definitely not the only one, might be that the stock of large fish is smaller. The bird flu is playing parts here as well. An average European inhabitant consumes more than 20 kg poultry per year, but only 1.5 kg salmon. Therefore, if salmon replaces just a marginal part of the chicken consumption, the difference for salmon consumption will be relatively large. USA The supply of Atlantic salmon from Chile to the USA in January increased by approx. 5 % compared with 2005, from approx tonnes (wfe) in 2005 to tonnes (wfe). Simultaneously, exports of whole fresh salmon from Canada led to an increased supply of Canadian salmon by almost 40 %. The total volume growth was almost 15 %. It is worthwhile to remember that January 2005 in the USA was the weakest January month of the past four years. A similar volume growth in the coming months is therefore not expected. The price level for both fillet and whole fish is still very strong. A record price was quoted in March for Chilean fresh fillet (the highest since 1994), while whole fresh salmon from both the east and the west coast quote spot prices which are between 35 and 40 % higher than at the same time last year. RUSSIA The import ban for fresh salmon from Norway is partly being compensated by increased imports of frozen fish and partly by increased exports of fresh fish from other producing nations. However, in the past two months, Russia did not show any volume growth (a decrease of 3-4 % in January and February). With the exception of the period between December 2002 and February 2003, this is the first time in five years that the volume in Russia is declining. 1.2 PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT NORWAY In the first two months of this year, the harvest quantity in Norway was approx. 10 % higher than last year. In the mean time, feed sales in January and February 2006 were slightly below the level of the same months last year. At the end of 2004, the feed quotas still ruled and at the end of 2004 and the beginning of 2005, the situation about how the feed sales were divided by month was quite uncertain. Independent of these historical facts, it is clear that the feeding in the past few months was not sufficient to keep the biomass above the high level of the first months of At the end of 2005, the biomass was 10 % above the level of the end of Relatively cold winter months have resulted in an average size of the 0-year-olds of 2004 that is lower than what the farmers would have wanted given to the current market situation. Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 1 of 47

5 CHILE The feed consumption for salmon and trout in the sea in February this year, was equal to January, approx tonnes. This is approx. 8 % more than in February The harvest quantity of Atlantic salmon in January is estimated to just more than tonnes (wfe), which also is an increase of approx. 8 % compared with last year. In January, approx tonnes (wfe) trout was exported from Chile and this is approx. 7 % more than in the same month in MARKET 2.1 EU ATLANTIC SALMON Development in supply of Atlantic salmon to the EU-25 per month from January 2002 to February 2006: TONNES CONVERTED TO WFE (WHOLE BLED FISH) % change January % February % Total % March April May June July August September October November December Year total Source: Kontali industry contacts, Norwegian Seafood Export Council, Forvus, Statistics Denmark, Statistical Bureau of the Faroe Islands, Chilean Salmon Farmers Association, Ireland Central Statistics Office. NOTE: The table contains a number of preliminary figures and will be adjusted The supply of Atlantic salmon to the EU totalled in January approx tonnes (wfe). The estimates for February are adjusted by approx. 600 tonnes. The estimate of supply in February is tonnes and strengthens the trend of increased supply of Atlantic salmon to the EU. In January, exports from Chile increased by almost 35 % compared with January Exports totalled more than tonnes in January this year. Chile s share of the total supply to the EU was more than 16 % in January and Norway s share was approx. 65 %. Supply from Norway to the EU increased as well, in February by almost 13 %. The total export quantity from Norway to the EU was in February tonnes. In February 2005, this was tonnes. Simultaneously, the prices for Atlantic salmon are very high in the EU. Fob export price for Norwegian fresh Atlantic salmon (head on) was in February NOK 26.86/kg compared with NOK 25.12/kg in February It looks as if the upwards trend is continuing in March. Page 2 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

6 Development in the wholesale prices at the Rungis market for Norwegian fresh Atlantic salmon 3-4 kg, 2004 to 2006: 5,90 Norwegian fresh Atlantic salmon 3-4 kg wholesale prices, Rungis-market EUR/kg 5,15 4,40 3, , Uke The price for Norwegian Atlantic salmon increased from EUR 4.70/kg in the last week of February and the first week of March (week 8 and 9) to EUR 5.00/kg in the second week of March. The average price for these weeks was EUR 4.80/ kg in 2006 and EUR 4.07/kg in the corresponding weeks in 2005 (+18 %). Development in the wholesale prices at the Rungis market for Scottish fresh Atlantic salmon 3-4 kg, 2004 to 2006: 6,60 Scottish fresh Atlantic salmon 3-4 kg wholesale prices, Rungis-market EUR/kg 5,68 4,75 3, , Uke The price quotation for Scottish fresh Atlantic salmon fell from EUR 6.20/kg in the last week of February and the first week of March (week 8 and 9) to EUR 6.00/kg in the second week of March (week 10). The average price for weeks 8-10 this year was EUR 6.13/kg, an increase from EUR 4.37/kg in the corresponding weeks last year (+40 %). Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 3 of 47

7 2.2 JAPAN Imported quantity and average price for fresh Atlantic salmon, frozen coho, frozen sockeye and frozen trout from 2002 to 2006: WEIGHTS IN TONNES / IMPORT PRICES JPY/KG January 2002 January 2003 January 2004 January 2005 January 2006 Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Fresh Atl. salmon Frozen coho Frozen sockeye Frozen trout Source: Japan Tariff Assoc., Alaska Trade Trends Comparison of import of fresh Atlantic salmon, frozen coho, frozen sockeye and frozen trout for the period from January to November 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and Fresh Atl. salmon Frozen sockeye Frozen coho Frozen trout tonnes Highest price achieved on the wholesale market in Tokyo for various salmon products; to : 950 Atlantic salmon, trout, coho og sockeye wholesale prices, Tsukiji-market Chilean frozen coho 4-6 lb JPY/kg Chilean frozen trout 4-6 lb Frozen sockeye 4-6 lb Fresh Norwegian salmon 3-4 kg Frozen norwegian salmon 4-5 kg Page 4 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

8 Inventory of frozen salmon and trout per month, from January 2001 to January 2006: Inventory of frozen salmon and trout in Japan Salmon Pink/Trout jan.01 mar.01 mai.01 jul.01 sep.01 nov.01 jan.02 Tonnes product weight mar.02 mai.02 jul.02 sep.02 nov.02 jan.03 mar.03 mai.03 jul.03 sep.03 nov.03 jan.04 mar.04 mai.04 jul.04 sep.04 nov.04 jan.05 mar.05 mai.05 jul.05 sep.05 nov.05 jan ATLANTIC SALMON The total supply of Atlantic salmon to Japan was approx tonnes (wfe) in 2005, compared with tonnes in In January 2006, the supply was approx tonnes and in January 2005, this was approx tonnes. The trend of 2005, with decreasing supply to the Japanese market, seems to continue in 2006 although the fall is not so deep. On the other hand, Chile increased the supply to Japan in January by just more than 250 tonnes (wfe) to approx tonnes. This is an increase by more than 20 %. Norway had a slight decline in January compared with the same month last year and the total export quantity totalled just above tonnes (wfe). This means that Chile s share of the total supply in 2006 (2005) was 36 % (29 %) and Norway s share was 58 % ( 59 %). For February, a decreased total supply is estimated from tonnes (wfe) in 2005 to just more than tonnes this year. Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon to Japan: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES JPY/KG January 2006 January 2005 Change 2005/2006 Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes % Norway % Canada % Australia % Great Britain % Others % Total % Source: Japan Tariff Assoc., Alaska Trade Trends In January, 286 tonnes less fresh Atlantic salmon was imported than in January last year (-14 %). Imports from all countries but Canada decreased. Here, the increase by per cent was large, 329 %, but the quantity increased by only 73 tonnes. The average import price increased from JPY 645/kg in January last year to JPY 714/kg in January this year (+11 %). The import price from all countries went up, except the price for imports from Australia. The average price for imports from the UK went up by 20 % this year, compared with last year. Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 5 of 47

9 Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon (left) and import price of fresh Atlantic salmon (right) to Japan per month from 2003 to 2006: Tonnes product weight Japan - Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon JPY/kg Japan - Import price of fresh Atlantic salmon Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 590 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Development in the wholesale prices in Tsukiji-market for fresh Atlantic salmon from 2004 to 2006: 860 Norwegian fresh Atlantic salmon 3-4 kg wholesale prices, Tsukiji-market JPY/kg Week The price quotation is estimated as the average of the highest and the lowest price achieved for fresh Norwegian Atlantic salmon 3-4 kg on the wholesale market in Tokyo. Also in the last week of February and the first two weeks in March (weeks 8-10), the import price for fresh Atlantic salmon to Japan was JPY 850/kg. In the corresponding weeks last year, the prices were as stable but at a lower level, JPY 765/kg. This means that the prices in these weeks this year are 11 % higher than in the corresponding weeks last year. Imports of frozen Atlantic salmon to Japan: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES JPY/KG January 2006 January 2005 Change 2005/2006 Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes % Chile % Norway % Denmark % Others % Total % Source: Japan Tariff Assoc., Alaska Trade Trends Page 6 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

10 In January, Japan imported frozen salmon only from Chile and Norway. Imports from Chile dropped by 291 tonnes (-68 %) from January last year to this year and imports from Norway increased by 83 tonnes (+103 %). The average price for imports from Chile was JPY 413/kg in January. Last year in the same month, the average price was JPY 381/kg (+8 %). The average price for imports from Norway was JPY 445/kg last year and JPY 604/kg in January this year, an increase of 36 %. Imports of frozen Atlantic salmon (left) and import price of frozen Atlantic salmon (right) to Japan per month for 2003 to 2006: Tonnes product weight Japan - Imports of frozen Atlantic salmon , JPY/kg Japan - Import price of frozen Atlantic salmon Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 380 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Development in the wholesale prices in Tsukiji-market for frozen Atlantic salmon from 2004 to 2006: 750 Norw egian frozen Atlantic salmon 4-5 kg w holesale prices, Tsukiji-market JPY/kg Week The price quotation is estimated as the average of the highest and the lowest price achieved for frozen Norwegian Atlantic salmon 4-5 kg on the wholesale market in Tokyo. In the last three weeks, the import price quoted JPY 710/kg. In the same weeks last year, the price fluctuated between JPY 515/kg and JPY 525/kg, which resulted in an average price of JPY 520/kg. The average import price increased by JPY 190/kg from last year to this year in the last two weeks of February and the first week in March (weeks 8-10) (+37 %). Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 7 of 47

11 2.2.2 RED FLESHED SALMON Imports of frozen trout to Japan: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES JPY/KG January 2006 January 2005 Change 2005/2006 Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes % Chile % Norway % Others % Total % Source: Japan Tariff Assoc., Alaska Trade Trends In January, tonnes frozen trout was imported, which is a decrease from tonnes in the same month last year (-5 %). Imports from Chile increased by 327 tonnes from January last year to this year (+8 %). On the other hand, imports from Norway dropped by 629 tonnes in he same month (-34 %). Also import prices for frozen trout went up. The average price for January increased from JPY 433/kg last year to JPY 516/kg this year (+19 %). Imports of frozen trout (left) and import price of frozen trout (right) per month from 2003 to 2006: Japan - Imports of frozen trout Japan - Import price of frozen trout Tonnes product weight JPY/kg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 350 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Development in the wholesale prices in Tsukiji-market for frozen trout from 2004 to 2006: 600 Chilean frozen trout 4-6 lb wholesale prices, Tsukiji-market JPY/kg Week Page 8 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

12 The price quotations are estimated as the average of the highest and the lowest price achieved for frozen Chilean trout 4-6lb on the wholesale market in Tokyo. The import price for frozen trout from Chile increased from JPY 535/kg in the last week of February to JPY 545/kg in the second week of March. In these weeks (weeks 8-10) in 2005, the average import price was JPY 505/kg, compared with JPY 538/kg this year (+7 %). Imports of frozen coho to Japan: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES JPY/KG January 2006 January 2005 Change 2005/2006 Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes % Chile % USA % Others % Total % Source: Japan Tariff Assoc., Alaska Trade Trends tonnes frozen coho was imported to Japan in January this year, which is a slight increase compared with the same month last year (+2 %). In January last year, the total imports came from Chile. This year, an almost insignificant quantity, 71 tonnes, came from the USA and an even smaller quantity, 0.5 tonnes, from Thailand. The average import price increased from JPY 359/kg in January last year to JPY 466/kg in January this year (+30 %). Development in the wholesale prices in Tsukiji-market for frozen coho from 2004 to 2006: 620 Chilean frozen coho 4-6 lb; wholesale prices, Tsukiji-market JPY/kg Week The prices are estimated as the average of the highest and the lowest price achieved for frozen Chilean coho 4-6lb on the wholesale market in Tokyo. The achieved average import price for frozen coho was in the last week of February and the first two weeks of March (week 8-10) JPY 535/kg, which is an increase of JPY 62/kg compared with the corresponding weeks last year (+13 %). Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 9 of 47

13 Imports of frozen sockeye to Japan: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES JPY/KG January 2006 January 2005 Change 2005/2006 Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes JPY/kg Tonnes % USA % Russia % Others % Total % Source: Japan Tariff Assoc., Alaska Trade Trends In January this year, a significantly less quantity frozen sockeye was imported in January this year compared with last year, down by 527 tonnes (-38 %). Imports from the USA decreased by 860 tonnes from January last year to this year (-64 %), while imports from Russia increased from 15 tonnes last year to 382 tonnes in January this year ( %). The average import price dropped by JPY 71/kg from January last year to this year (-15 %). Development in the wholesale prices in Tsukiji-market for frozen sockeye from 2004 to 2006: 650 Bristol Bay frozen sockeye 4-6 lb Wholesale prices, Tsukiji-market JPY/kg week The prices shown in the graph above are estimated as the average of the highest and the lowest price achieved for frozen Bristol Bay sockeye 4-6lb on the Tsukiji market. Import prices for frozen Bristol Bay sockeye have so far this year been below last year s level. The average price for the last week of February and the first two weeks of March (weeks 8-10) was JPY 600/kg, and in the same weeks this year JPY 525/kg (-13 %). Page 10 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

14 2.3 USA ATLANTIC SALMON The supply of Atlantic salmon to the USA is estimated to approx tonnes (wfe) in January, which is an increase of almost 15 % from tonnes in January In the first place, Canada is increasing its exports but also exports from Chile are going up. Exports from Canada were approx tonnes in January 2006 and approx tonnes in January last year (+38 %). Chile s exports increased by approx. 900 tonnes in January 2006 compared with the same month in 2005 and totalled just more than tonnes. Also in the USA, the high prices seem to stay stable. Fresh Chilean fillet quoted fob Miami was in the first two weeks of March (weeks 9 and 10) USD 3.75/lb (2-3 lbs) or approx. NOK 8.28/kg. As mentioned in the last report, the high price level opens the possibility for export of European salmon fillet to the USA. Exports from Norway to the USA increased from approx. 590 tonnes in January 2005 to approx. 960 tonnes in January Frozen salmon fillets increased most, from approx. 90 tonnes (wfe) in January 2005 to approx. 380 tonnes (wfe) in the same month this year. Even though the quantities are relatively small, they increased from last year. Imports of gutted, fresh Atlantic salmon to the USA: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES USD/KG January 2006 January 2006 Change 2004/2005 Tonnes USD/kg Tonnes USD/kg Tonnes % Canada , , % Great Britain 756 6, , % Chile 57 6, , % Others 73 5, , % Total , , % Sources: US Census Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon to the USA increased strongly from January last year to this year, by 45 %. In January this year, the USA imported tonnes from Canada. In the same month last year, this was tonnes (+50 %). Imports from the UK more than doubled, up from 464 tonnes last year to 756 tonnes this year (+63 %). The average import price increased by USD 0.56/kg from January last year to this year (+12 %). Imports from the UK increased strongly, both in quantity and in price. The average price increased from USD 4.64/kg in January last year to USD 6.82/kg this year (+47 %). Development in imports of fresh Atlantic salmon per month in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006: Tonnes product weight USA - Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 11 of 47

15 Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillets to the USA: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES USD/KG January 2006 January 2005 Change 2005/2006 Tonnes USD/kg Tonnes USD/kg Tonnes % Chile , , % Canada 666 7, , % Norway , , % Others , , % Total , , % Source: US Census Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet decreased from tonnes in January last year to tonnes this year (-18 %). The main part is imported from Chile and this year, tonnes less was imported than last year (-21 %). Imports from Norway increased strongly by per cent, 199 %, but in quantity this is only 134 tonnes. Especially the import price from Chile increased strongly, by USD 2.01/kg from January last year to this year (+36 %). Development in imports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet per month from 2003 to 2006: Tonnes product weight USA - Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Imports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillets to the USA: The average import price increased from USD 6.15/kg last year to USD 8.16/kg in January this year (+33 %). PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES USD/KG Quantity USD/kg Quantity USD/kg January , ,15 February ,34 March ,49 April ,48 May ,56 June ,65 July ,09 August ,21 September ,49 October ,70 November ,99 December ,83 Year total ,96 Source: US Census Page 12 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

16 Comparison of prices of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet from Chile delivered in Miami for the years 2004 to 2006: 8,20 Chilean fresh Atlantic salmon filet 1-1,5 kg prices FOB Miami ,40 USD/kg 6,60 5, ,00 4, Week The import price for fresh Atlantic salmon fob Miami increased strongly. The average price for the last week in February and for the first two weeks in March (weeks 8-10) was USD 8.20/kg, which is an increase from USD 5.30/kg in the same weeks in 2005 (+55 %). Imports of frozen salmon fillets to the USA: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES USD/KG January 2006 January 2006 Change 2004/2005 Tonnes USD/kg Tonnes USD/kg Tonnes % Chile , , % China 229 4, , % Norway 174 9, , % Others 4 7,64 4 3, % Total , , % Source: US Census In January, tonnes frozen salmon fillet was imported to the USA. This is a decrease by 204 tonnes compared with last year (-7 %). While imports from Chile decreased only moderately (-6 %), imports from China dropped dramatically by 31 % from January 2005 to January this year. The average import price increased from all import countries, but most from China. The import price from China increased from USD 2.74/kg in January last year to USD 4.36/kg in the same month this year (+59 %). Although the price increased strongly, it is still far below the average price from Norway, which was USD 9.73/kg in January. Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 13 of 47

17 Development in imports of frozen Atlantic salmon fillet per month in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006: Tonnes product weight USA - Imports of frozen salmon fillet Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Imports of frozen salmon fillets to the USA: The average import price for January this year was USD 6.80/kg, up from USD 5.69/kg in the same month this year (+20 %). PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / IMPORT PRICES USD/KG Quantity USD/kg Quantity USD/kg January , ,69 February ,81 March ,03 April ,86 May ,76 June ,92 July ,26 August ,12 September ,66 October ,74 November ,78 December ,52 Year total ,19 Source: US Census OTHER MARKETS Russia Because of the import ban for all fresh salmon from Norway, effective from 1 January 2006, exports of all fresh salmon from Norway to Russia stopped completely. However, exports of frozen salmon increased considerably in January and February 2006 compared with In January, exports of frozen whole salmon (head on) were approx tonnes (wfe), while this increased to approx tonnes in the same month this year. Exports in February increased from approx tonnes in 2005 to tonnes this year. Still, the total exported quantity is much lower than in February last year when the total was tonnes. It is still not clear at all when the import restrictions are going to be abolished. Page 14 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

18 3 PRODUCTION AND SALE 3.1 NORTH AMERICA ATLANTIC SALMON Exports of fresh Atlantic salmon from Canada: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / FOB EXPORT PRICE CAD/KG Jan 06 Jan 05 January 2006 January 2005 Change Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes CAD/kg Tonnes CAD/kg Tonnes % USA , , % Others , , % TOTAL , , % Source: Statistics Canada Exports of fresh Atlantic salmon from Canada increased strongly from January last year to January this year, up by tonnes (+40 %). The main market for fresh salmon is the USA and exports to the USA increased from January 2005 to the same month this year by tonnes (+50 %). As the table above shows, the average fob export price for fresh Atlantic salmon from Canada is very stable, CAD 5.63/kg in January 2005 and CAD 5.64/kg in January this year CHINOOK Exports of fresh farmed chinook from Canada: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / FOB EXPORT PRICE CAD/KG Jan 06 Jan 05 January 2006 January 2005 Change Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes CAD/kg Tonnes CAD/kg Tonnes % USA , , % Others ,12 4 7, % Total , , % Source: Statistics Canada In January this year, 73 tonnes less fresh farmed chinook was exported than in the same month last year (-22 %). In January this year, a quantity of 88 tonnes was exported to Japan for CAD 16.12/kg. This caused an increase of the average price of CAD 5.61/kg from January last year to this year (+96 %). Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 15 of 47

19 3.2 CHILE ATLANTIC SALMON Harvest quantity Atlantic salmon based on export statistics: WEIGHT TONNES (WFE) Actual harvest figures from SERNAP Export quantity + estimated domestic consumption Change % January % February March April May June July August September October November December Year total to 2001 official monthly harvest figures to 2005 preliminary figures Approx tonnes (wfe) Atlantic salmon was harvested in Chile in January. This is approx tonnes more than in January The main part of the harvest quantity exists for the time being of S0 04G. The average weight of S1 05G is lower than previous years. It might still take several months before the quantity of this generation is gaining importance for the total quantity. CONSUMPTION OF FEED In January this year, approx tonnes feed was sold. This includes feed for fresh water fish and seawater fish. This is approx tonnes more compared with the same month last year. The share of feed for Atlantic salmon is estimated to approx. 72 % of the total quantity in January. EXPORTS OF ATLANTIC SALMON Exports of gutted fresh Atlantic salmon from Chile divided on markets: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES Exports in tonnes Change Exports in tonnes Change Jan 06 Jan 05 Tonnes % January 2006 January 2005 Tonnes % Brazil % % Argentina % % USA % % Mexico % % Others % % Total % % In January, tonnes fresh Atlantic salmon was exported from Chile, which is an increase of 97 tonnes compared with January last year (+8 %). Exports increased by 120 tonnes (+13 %) to Brazil and with the 133 tonnes which were exported to Argentina, these exports increased by 21 tonnes (+16 %), while exports to the USA dropped by 56 tonnes (-37 %) from January last year to the same month this year. Page 16 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

20 Exports of gutted fresh Atlantic salmon from Chile: The average fob export price increased from USD 2.68/kg in January last year to USD 3.80/kg in the same month this year (+42 %). PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / FOB EXPORT PRICE USD/KG Quantity USD/kg Quantity USD/kg January , ,68 February ,72 March ,75 April 967 2,86 May 688 2,93 June 971 3,04 July 913 3,18 August ,37 September ,49 October ,62 November ,75 December ,81 Year total , Exports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet from Chile divided on markets: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES Exports in tonnes Change Exports in tonnes Change Jan 06 Jan 05 Tonnes % January 2006 January 2005 Tonnes % USA % % Mexico % % Canada Others % % Total % % Exports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet increased by 650 tonnes from January last year to the same month this year (+12 %). Almost the complete quantity went to the USA and these exports increased by 580 tonnes from last year to this year so far (+11 %). Exports of fresh Atlantic salmon fillet from Chile: The average fob export price increased strongly, up from USD 3.90/kg in January last year to USD 6.13/kg in January 2006 (+57 %). PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / FOB EXPORT PRICE USD/KG Quantity USD/kg Quantity USD/kg January , ,90 February ,04 March ,18 April ,36 May ,32 June ,47 July ,83 August ,17 September ,45 October ,74 November ,91 December ,01 Year total , Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 17 of 47

21 Export of frozen Atlantic salmon fillet from Chile divided on markets: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES Exports in tonnes Change Exports in tonnes Change Jan 06 Jan 05 Tonnes % January 2006 January 2005 Tonnes % EU % % USA % % Japan % % Others % % Total % % tonnes frozen Atlantic salmon was exported from Chile in January this year. In the same month last year, tonnes was exported (+18 %). The main markets for Chilean frozen Atlantic salmon are the EU and the USA. Exports to the EU increased by 521 tonnes (+28 %) and to the USA by 383 tonnes (+32 %). Export of frozen Atlantic salmon fillet from Chile: The average fob export price increased by USD 1.24/kg from the first month last year to the same month this year (+29 %). PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / FOB EXPORT PRICE USD/KG Quantity USD/kg Quantity USD/kg January , ,29 February ,20 March ,45 April ,54 May ,59 June ,45 July ,63 August ,80 September ,01 October ,13 November ,28 December ,36 Year total , TROUT Harvest quantity of trout based on export statistics: WEIGHT TONNES (WFE) Actual harvest figures from SERNAP Export quantities converted to round weight Change % January % February March April May June July August September October November December Year total to 2001 official monthly harvest figures to 2005 preliminary figures Page 18 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

22 In January, approx tonnes (wfe) trout was harvested. This is approx. 400 tonnes less than in the same month in The harvest quantity at this moment exists mainly of S1 05G. The total harvest for 2005 is estimated to approx tonnes (wfe). The smolt release of trout in 2005 increased compared with the year before and this smolt will be the main part of this year s harvest quantity. It is therefore expected that the harvest quantity in 2006 will exceed the quantity of 2005 with %. EXPORTS FROZEN TROUT Exports of frozen trout from Chile divided on markets: PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES Exports in tonnes Change Exports in tonnes Change Jan 06 Jan 05 Tonnes % January 2006 January 2005 Tonnes % Japan % % Others % % Total % % Total exports of frozen trout increased from January last year to this year by 461 tonnes (+9 %). Exports to the main market, Japan, decreased from tonnes in January last year to tonnes this year (-15 %). As can be read in the table above, exports to Other countries increased by tonnes in this month (+184 %). Especially the 395 tonnes exported to Russia (69 tonnes in January 2005) and the 333 tonnes that went to China (44 tonnes in January 2005) are the reasons for the large increase. Exports of frozen trout from Chile: The average fob export price increased from USD 3.60/kg in January last year to USD 3.80/kg this year (+6 %). PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / FOB EXPORT PRICE USD/KG Quantity USD/KG Quantity USD/KG January , ,60 February ,50 March ,55 April ,60 May ,82 June ,85 July ,88 August ,95 September ,04 October ,20 November ,22 December ,74 Year total , Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 19 of 47

23 3.2.3 COHO Harvest quantity of coho based on export statistics: 1999/ / / / / / / /2006 Change% July % August % September % October % November % December % January % Total % February March April May June Year total to 2001 official monthly harvest figures to 2004 preliminary figures Approx tonnes coho was harvested in Chile in January. This is approx tonnes more than in the same month last year. The season is soon over and the biomass is estimated to be less than tonnes (wfe) at the end of January. The harvest quantity in the season 2004/05 totals almost tonnes (wfe). The release of smolt for the new season started in October/November. Not all fish is released in the sea yet, so it is at this moment too early to estimate the size. EXPORT COHO Actual harvest figures from SERNAP Exports of frozen coho from Chile divided on markets: Export quantity WEIGHT TONNES (WFE) PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES Exports in tonnes Change Exports in tonnes Change Jan 06 Jan 05 Tonnes % January 2006 January 2005 Tonnes % Japan % % Thailand % China % Others % % Total % % Exports of frozen coho dropped from tonnes in January 2005 to tonnes in January this year (-12 %). Dominating are exports to Japan and these decreased by tonnes in this period (-12 %). Page 20 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

24 Exports of frozen coho from Chile: The average fob export price increased from USD 2.81/kg in January 2004 to USD 3.12/kg in the same month in In January this year, the price increased to USD 3.63/kg. This gives a price increase of 11 % from 2004 to 2005 and 16 % from last year to this year in the month January. PRODUCT WEIGHT TONNES / FOB EXPORT PRICE USD/KG Quantity USD/kg Quantity USD/kg Quantity USD/kg January , , ,81 February , ,81 March , ,83 April , ,70 May 742 3, ,74 June 291 3, ,60 July 150 3, ,68 August 376 3, ,62 September 996 4, ,36 October , ,20 November , ,23 December , ,20 Year total , , NORWAY ATLANTIC SALMON Market development for Norwegian salmon: 1000 TONNES PRODUCT WEIGHT Actual Budget Actual Change % 2005 Change % 2006 Change % Jan to Feb Jan to Feb Change % 03/04 04/05 05/ /06 Fresh salmon: EU % % % % Far East % 40 8 % 38-5 % % Others % % % % % % % % Frozen salmon: 0 0 EU % 10 0 % 8-20 % % Far East % 7-33 % 6-14 % % Russia % 9-21 % 8-11 % % Others % % % % % 46-2 % 47 2 % % Fillets fresh/frozen: 0 0 EU % % 34-6 % % Far East % 6 4 % 5-17 % % Others % 7-10 % 6-14 % % % 49 7 % 45-8 % % Smoked/marinated % 4-23 % 6 50 % % Consumption Norway % 20-1 % % % Guts % 77 9 % 81 5 % % Harvest quantity (wfe) % % % % At present, the sales trend slightly higher than our estimates for this year s harvest quantity of tonnes (wfe). The fish farmers could be stimulated to harvest fish earlier than planned if the prices stay at the current level. As mentioned in the February issue of this report, the total quantity could increase to tonnes (wfe). However, this implies a lower average weight and a higher number of slaughtered fish. Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 21 of 47

25 Already now, we spot these tendencies. Those farmers, who have 1-year-olds left, wish to keep them until the summer and sell them then as 6+. The daily harvest need has to be met by 0-year-olds from 2004 with a low average weight. So far this year, the average weight of slaughter fish decreased by 0.13 kg (wfe). If this trend keeps up, 3.5 million more fish has to be taken up in order to meet the total quantity. The consequence will be a reduced biomass per 31 December 2006 and fewer individuals available in However, all this depends on whether consumers are willing to pay more for salmon or not. If they do not accept a higher price level, then we might end up in a similar situation as in autumn At that time, fish farmers retained fish, hoping for a price increase. BIOMASS (LIVE STOCK) 1000 FISH/TONNES WFE (ROUND BLED WEIGHT) Estimated stock per Stock per Change % 04 G a 4, G a 3, G a 1, G a 1, Total stock (wfe) Total stock (wfe) % Harvested Harvested Net growth Net growth Change Change Estimated stock per Stock per G a 4, G a 4, G a 1, G a 1, Total stock (wfe) Total stock (wfe) % Converted gutted weight Converted gutted weight The figures are calculated and not based on collected data from the farms Number and weight may not total exactly due to rounding. Statistics Norway published corrections for export figures for January. According to these figures, the harvest quantity for January is approx tonnes (wfe), which is approx tonnes (wfe) higher than published in our latest report. In February, approx tonnes (wfe) Atlantic salmon was harvested in Norway. This is approx tonnes (wfe) more than in February So far this year, the total harvest quantity of Atlantic salmon was approx tonnes, which is an increase of approx. 10 % compared with the harvest in the corresponding months, tonnes (wfe). At the end of February, the remaining number of 04G is estimated to just more than 38 million individuals. This is approx more individuals than what the remaining number of 03G was at the same time in The total smolt release for 04G is estimated to 152 million individuals. The generation 03G existed of approx. 134,5 million individuals. Expressed in per cent this means that approx. 25 % of the total release of 04G is left over, while this was approx. 28 % of the total released 03G a year earlier. Page 22 of 47 Monthly report March no. 3/2006

26 Development in biomass per month from 2004 to 2006: DEVELOPMENT BIOMASS SALMON TONNES Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec MONTH CONSUMPTION OF FEED SALE OF DRY FEED IN TONNES Change % /05 January % February % Total % March April May June July August September October November December Year total Source: Fishfeed Producers Organisation (FPF) The statistics include sale of dry feed to farms and smolt plants in Norway for all species of fish. Kontali Analyse AS has estimated the share that is used for salmon production in fish farms. The quantity for last month is based on an estimate because the final figure has not been released. During February, approx tonnes feed was sold in Norway. This is approx. 4 % less than in the same month in The total feed (for all species) sold in January and February was approx tonnes. This is approx tonnes less than in the corresponding months in The fish farmers report about lower water temperatures than a year earlier, which is considered to be the reason for the reduced feed consumption. The relative feeding (feed consumption during a period/biomass per beginning of this period) for Atlantic salmon in February is lower than in 2005, but higher than the month February in the years 2001 to Monthly report March no. 3/2006 Page 23 of 47