- The number of 2yos racing from each crop has dropped from 25% in 1998/99 to 18% in 2009/10.

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1 2YO RACING TRENDS SUMMARY This paper is an overview of the recent trends in 2yo racing in Australia. The data covers the 1998/99 season through to the 2009/10 season, and looks at the number of races per state, as well as the number of horses competing. The core trends from this data are: RESULTS - The number of 2yos racing from each crop has dropped from 25% in 1998/99 to 18% in 2009/10. - The number of 2yo races has fallen from 1,200 to 800 in the same period. - The average field size has stayed fairly steady, although Queensland has stronger figures than the other states. - The number of 2yo races in the pre-1jan period has fallen more sharply than in the post-1jan period, except in Queensland where the falls have been similar. NATIONAL RACING TRENDS In the 1998/99 season, in round figures there were 22,000 races of which 1,200 were races restricted to 2yos only 1. 2yo racing represented 5.4% of all races. In the 2009/10 racing season, there were 19,400 (-12%) races of which 800 (-33%) were 2yo races. 2yo racing represented 4.1% of all races. Season Total Races 2yo Races % 2yo Races , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Table: Trends of Australian races and 2yo races 1 2yo horses also compete in open class races, but these are not included here.

2 This graph highlights the reducing number of races, as well as the large dip for the EI crisis in 2007/08. Note the slope of the graph for 2yo racing is steeper, representing a faster fall in the number of races compared to all racing in Australia. 2

3 NUMBER OF 2YO RACES BY STATE AND SEASON The number of 2yo races has trended downwards with the exception of Queensland which, after a sharp drop in the EI crisis in 2007/08, has risen strongly in 2009/10 back to the 2003/04 level. The order of the states in the table below is determined by the number of 2yo races held in 2009/10. Season QLD NSW VIC WA SA TAS Total 1998/ , / , / , / , / / / / / / / / Total 3,105 3,013 2, , ,466 % Change -31% -40% -29% -21% -37% -26% -33% Table: Number of 2yo only races by state and season. 3

4 EARLY 2YO RACING By splitting the data into before 1 Jan and 1 Jan onwards, it can be investigated whether the falls in 2yo racing have happened early or later in the racing season. Season 1 Jan NSW VIC QLD Other Total 1998/99 Before /00 Before /01 Before /02 Before /03 Before /04 Before /05 Before /06 Before /07 Before /08 Before /09 Before /10 Before /11 Before % Change to 2009/10-52% -32% -34% -62% -46% 1998/99 After /00 After /01 After /02 After /03 After /04 After /05 After /06 After /07 After /08 After /09 After /10 After % Change -37% -29% -31% -22% -30% Table: Number of 2yo only races before and after 1 January 4

5 AVAILABLE HORSES While the national foal crop has remained fairly steady, the number of foals that have raced as 2yos has been steadily falling. This drop equates to 1,200 horses a large indicator that something has changed in the way that 2yos are prepared and presented for the races. 2yo Runners 3 % of Crop Racing Season Total Foal Crop (2 seasons before) 2 Raced as 2yos 1998/99 18,020 4,519 25% 1999/00 18,418 4,262 23% 2000/01 18,351 4,014 22% 2001/02 18,550 3,852 21% 2002/03 18,669 3,939 21% 2003/04 18,241 3,601 20% 2004/05 18,310 3,630 20% 2005/06 17,338 3,470 20% 2006/07 17,741 3,355 19% 2007/08 18,589 3,020 16% 2008/09 18,749 3,283 18% 2009/10 18,472 3,294 18% Table: Foal crops and number of 2yo runners in each season FIELD SIZES Utilising the number of races and the number of times each 2yo raced per season, gives a measure of the average field sizes for 2yo races. Season QLD NSW VIC WA SA TAS Total 1998/ / / / / / / / / / / / % change 4% 3% -13% 7% -15% -17% -2% Table: Average field size per 2yo race 2 Australian Stud Book 3 Australian Racing Board: Fact Books 2010,

6 Queensland has kept a higher average number of runners per race than the other states. 6

7 SUMMARY Following the overview of the recent statistical trends in 2yo racing in Australia, this paper looks at a few of the potential reasons for the falls in both available 2yo runners and in the number of races. The core trends from the data were: - The number of 2yos racing from each crop has dropped from 25% in 1998/99 to 18% in 2009/10. - The number of 2yo races has fallen from 1,200 to 800 in the same period. - The average field size has stayed fairly steady, although Queensland has stronger figures than the other states. - The number of 2yo races in the pre-1jan period has fallen more sharply than in the post-1jan period, except in Queensland where the falls have been similar. PROGRAMMING - AUSTRALIAN RACING BOARD The Australian Racing Board oversees the National Programming Committee (NPC) but has no responsibility for any setting of the program. The NPC consists of racing managers from each state who meet to agree a national program of race days. The responsibility for the events that occur on those days is done at a state level. The black type program is done separately to the overall programming process. The black type program remains static year to year. If a state or club want to make changes they have to apply to the Australian Pattern Committee. It is usually clubs that drive changes in the black type program. Programming in general is a balancing act for each state, and each state approaches the process differently. If turnover was the main driver, then all our races would be sprints as they tend to attract higher numbers of starters than staying events. However, the states need to negotiate a balance to cater for all horses, and ensure that horses have a path through to the black type program, especially the longer distance races. STATE PROGRAMMING NSW The racing program in NSW is done four months in advance of the race date, and is based on the previous year. It is designed to enhance the black type program and ensure there is plenty of lead up events to black type races. With regards to 2yos, Racing NSW attempt to get at least one 2yo race per region per fortnight. However, there is a difference between programming a race and running a race. If a race gets less than 7 nominations, the club has the right to not hold the event. In the case of 2yo racing, the field sizes are often small, and 7

8 Racing NSW has to negotiate with a club in this instance to maintain the race so that 2yos get a chance to compete. The reason for the four monthly scheduling is to ensure that there is the required available horse population for the proposed program. In general, the older horses have a fairly stable population base in each region, but the 2yo population can fluctuate. As these horses are still growing, their ability to continue through to the races changes quickly. Racing NSW rings around trainers in different regions to see how many 2yos are in work and at what stage and they see the contact with trainers as important to ensure there is going to be the required population for a race. QUEENSLAND In general, programming is done by looking at last year s program and the number of starters and turnover per race. Changes are made on an annual basis, and clubs are given the annual program for consultation, but most clubs accept it as presented to them by Racing Queensland. Racing Queensland has complete control over prize money distribution in the state, which simplifies things from an administration point of view. The black type program is set in stone, but the lead up races may alter as per previous paragraph. In respect of 2yos, Racing Queensland try to have 6 2yo races per 10 race days. Since EI, they have put extra funding into 2yo programs to try and get owners and breeders back into racing. The QTIS program has also helped by being structured towards 2yos. VICTORIA The main driver in Victoria s programming is the available horse population. By understanding the number of horses coming through the qualification process as approved to race, Racing Victoria can then manage them through their racing career. Over 500 jumpouts and trials are held throughout the year in Victoria, varying in size from 6 horses to 80 horses at each event. Victoria do not enforce horses to trial before racing, as they do not have the infrastructure to run the required number of events. Horses must have a jump out before the stewards to qualify, but this is the extent of the requirements. The black type program does not change annually. Racing Victoria believe that owners and trainers know when the stakes races are on, therefore they tend to have horses ready for that program. Racing Victoria program supporting races based on numbers of horses coming through the qualification process. There was a review done a couple of years ago by Racing Victoria after trainers frequently stated that there were not enough 2yo races in the pre-christmas period. Racing Victoria felt that the field sizes weren t justifying running the races, but a certain number of pre- Christmas 2yo events were agreed between Racing Vic and trainers. After the Blue Diamond is run, Racing Victoria program a 2yo race on nearly every city meeting and around half of country meetings. Their feeling is that the available horse population in the metro areas has been constant, but the country areas, particularly before Christmas has struggled for numbers. 8

9 CLASS CHANGES OVER TIME With Racing Victoria commenting on the difficulty of getting numbers for country area 2yo racing, a quick look at the changes in the class of 2yo races over time gives the following result. Season Stakes Races Metro Non Metro Total 1998/ , / , / , / , / / / / / / / / % Change -21% -20% -41% -33% This table shows that the largest drop in race numbers has been in the non-metro area with a fall from 720 races to 426 races. TRIALS DATA One of the potential reasons for the drop in 2yo runners as a percentage of the foal crop is that these horses are trialing but not racing. This could from the increasing pressure on trainers to keep a good strike rate at the races, or could be the increasing qualification process required before a horse can race. A request for trials information from RISA has yielded some interesting information. The data on trials has previously only been held sporadically by RISA, and is incomplete for most states. NSW has the best data and this is shown below. Season NSW 2yo Races NSW 2yo Trials 1998/ / / / / / / / / / / /

10 % Change -40% 76% The increase in the number of trials in NSW is either due to greater accuracy in the RISA data over time or due to an actual increase in the number of trials, or a mix of both. The information on the number of horses that trialed per season is not accurate enough to give a comparison to the race information. SHUTTLE STALLIONS Another reason that has been raised to explain the drop in available 2yo runners is the effect that the shuttle stallion era has had on the breed. The dawn of the age of shuttle stallions is generally agreed to be circa One of the first was Danehill who obviously dominated the 2yo racing scene. Since then many horses that were top 2yo racehorses and producers in the northern hemisphere have been on the shuttle run in an attempt to re-produce Danehill s success. This is not easy to quantify, but some of these horses left good 2yos in the north, but tended to leave later maturing types in Australia. There is also the idea that many shuttle stallions recently have been stamina types to try and add scope to the speedy Australian type ; and if correct, then their progeny would be later maturing thus having an impact on the available 2yo runners. Although inadvisable to illustrate an idea with one instance without statistical validation, here is an example: Any horse that leaves multiple Gr1 winners is hard to criticize, so Woodman is a good example to use here. He died in 2007, leaving 100 stakes winners. He arrived in Australia in 1997, ten years after going to stud in the USA. He was himself a good 2yo, being crowned Champion 2yo in Ireland in 1985 and had already been twice crowned Champion USA sire of 2yos (1990 and 1994). Subsequently, there were big expectations from his 2yos, but it was not to be. Generally noted as leaving open kneed horses that took time, his results show that. Of his 417 southern hemisphere foals, 122 (29%) raced as 2yos for only 19 2yo winners (3 of which won 2yo stakes races). In total he left 14 stakes winners from his Australian foals, his other 86 stakes winners were foaled in the northern hemisphere. In summary, Woodman didn t live up to the expectations of him as a sire of 2yos in Australia. Compare his Australian 2yo record with Danehill s record: Of his 1123 SH foals, 504 (45%) started as 2yos and 116 were winners at that age (including 5 Golden Slipper winners). OTHER COMMENTS 1. There is a potential prize money and distance driver in Victoria regarding the MM 2yo race. This race is close enough to the Blue Diamond for trainers and owners to wait, rather than risk the travel on a youngster. 2. Is there a perception among owners that 2yo racing decreases the longevity of their horse, and thus they are more willing to be patient than in previous years. 3. Do we need more 900m races? To get a 2yo from a 750m trial to a 1100m race is a big step up in fitness and the additional training may result in less horses making it through to the races. There is a perception that we need more short distance races for juveniles. Currently 80% of 2yo races are between 950m and 1250m, with the full range being 800m to 1730m. 10