Fertility in India Trends and Prospects
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1 Fertility in India Trends and Prospects Carl Haub Population Reference Bureau POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
2 Map not to scale
3 Population Distribution of India by State, 2001 EAG states = Uttar Pradesh 16.2% 40% of population Maharashtra 9.4% 2007 TFR >3.0 states = 42% of population Bihar 8.1% Other states 33.7% West Bengal 7.8% Andhra Pradesh 7.4% 2001 Census of India Rajasthan 5.5% Madhya Pradesh 5.9% Tamil Nadu 6.1%
4 Total Fertility Rate, India and Major States, INDIA Uttar Pradesh Bihar Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh Assam Haryana Gujarat Orissa J&K Karnataka Maharashtra Delhi Punjab West Bengal Himachal Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Kerala Tamil Nadu Sample Registration System
5 Percent of Population Urban, India, Censuses of India
6 Total Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, Rural Urban INDIA Uttar Pradesh Bihar Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Jharkhand Chhattisgarh Assam Gujarat Haryana Orissa Sample Registration System
7 Total Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, con t Rural Urban J&K Karnataka Maharashtra Punjab West Bengal Andhra Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Kerala Tamil Nadu Sample Registration System
8 Total Marital Fertility Rate, India, Total, Rural, and Urban, 1998 and Total Rural Urban India 1998, National TFR = 3.2 India 2007, National TFR = 2.7 Sample Registration System
9 Total Marital Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, Rural Urban INDIA Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Jharkhand Chhattisgarh Bihar Assam Gujarat Haryana Orissa Sample Registration System
10 Total Marital Fertility Rate, India and Major States, Rural and Urban, con t Rural Urban J&K Karnataka Maharashtra Punjab West Bengal Andhra Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Kerala Tamil Nadu Delhi Sample Registration System
11 The Demographic Divide in Three States of India Uttar Pradesh Bihar Kerala Population 2001 (millions) Population Literacy Male/Female (%), /42 60/33 94/88 Total fertility rate, Modern contraceptive prev Traditional contra. prev Urban population (%), Percent of population < age 15, Households with electricity (%) HH with access to toilet facility, HH in permanent-type house, HH, with television, HH with car, jeep, or van, HH with two-wheeler, HH in one-room house, HH with low standard of living, Census of India, District Level Health Survey, , and PRB projections
12 UTTAR PRADESH: 2001 Census Reported Population, by Age and Sex Age Male Female Female minus Sex Male Ratio All ages 87,563,471 78,631, ,791,490 10,021, , ,205,699 11,795,908-1,409, ,041,869 10,367,597-1,674, ,018,223 7,098,006-1,920, ,007,116 6,363, , ,009,187 5,835, , ,364,259 5,497, , ,100,187 4,751, , ,334,189 3,748, , ,468,288 3,200, , ,027,280 2,330, , ,992,036 2,121, , ,274,377 2,036, , ,474,525 1,445,036-29, ,258, , , , ,838-53,
13 Population Pyramid of Uttar Pradesh, 2001 Census, Unsmoothed Age Males Females Census of India
14 Population Pyramid of Uttar Pradesh, 2001 Census, Smoothed Age Males Females Census of India, smoothed Percent
15 Crude Birth Rate, India, Births per 1,000 population Registrar General of India, Sample Registration System
16 Have States Shown a Tendency for a Slowdown in TFR Decline As an Ultimate Level is Reached?
17 Crude Birth Rate, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, Births per 1,000 population Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Sample Registration System
18 Crude Birth Rate, Bihar and Jharkhand, Births per 1,000 population Bihar Jharkhand Sample Registration System
19 Crude Birth Rate, Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh Births per 1,000 population Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh Sample Registration System
20 Total Fertility Rate, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, Children per woman Bihar Uttar Pradesh Registrar General of India, Sample Registration System
21 7 Total Fertility Rate, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, Three Year Moving Averages, to Children per woman 6 Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Sample Registration System
22 Annual TFR Decrease, Kerala, Based on 3 Year Moving Average to TFR = 4.0 TFR = Sample Registration System
23 Annual TFR Decrease, Tamil Nadu, Based on 3 Year Moving Average to TFR = 3.9 TFR = 2.1 TFR = Sample Registration System
24 Annual TFR Decrease, Karnataka, Based on 3 Year Moving Average to TFR = 4.2 TFR = Sample Registration System
25 Annual TFR Decrease, West Bengal, Based on 3 Year Moving Average, to TFR = TFR = Sample Registration System
26 Annual TFR Decrease, Uttar Pradesh, Based on 3 Year Moving Average, to TFR = 6.5 TFR = Sample Registration System
27 Annual TFR Decrease, Maharashtra, Based on 3 Year Moving Average, to TFR = TFR = Sample Registration System
28 Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages Modern and Traditional Methods, India, Four Surveys F. Sterilization Traditional Pill, IUD Injectable 10 5 Condom DHS DHS DLHS DHS
29 Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages Modern and Traditional Methods, Bihar, Four Surveys Modern Traditional NFHS NFHS NFHS DLHS-3 (Ages 15-44)
30 Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages Modern and Traditional Methods, Uttar Pradesh, Four Surveys Modern Traditional NFHS NFHS NFHS DLHS-3 (Ages 15-44)
31 Contraceptive Use by Currently Married Women, Ages Modern and Traditional Methods, Rajasthan, Four Surveys Modern Traditional NFHS NFHS NFHS DLHS-3 (Ages 15-44) 2.8
32 Percent of Currently Married Women, Ages 15-44, Using Female Sterilization and Using Other Methods, Selected States of India, Other methods Female sterilization Andhra Pradesh DLHS-3 Karnataka Tamil Nadu Kerala Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh Rajasthan West Bengal Orissa Bihar Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh
33 Percent of Women, Ages 18-29, Married by Age 18, Major States of India, INDIA Bihar Jharkhand Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh West Bengal Madhya Pradesh Uttar Pradesh Chhattisgarh Haryana Karnataka Maharashtra Assam Orissa Gujarat Tamil Nadu Punjab Kerala Jammu & Kashmir Himachal Pradesh NFHS-3
34 Median Age of Women at Effective Marriage, All Ages, India and Major States, INDIA Bihar Andhra Pradesh Rajasthan Haryana Chhattisgarh Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Karnataka Jharkhand Orissa Assam Maharashtra Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Tamil Nadu Himachal Pradesh Punjab Kerala Jammu & Kashmir Sample Registration System NFHS-3
35 Percentage of Women, Ages 20-49, Married Before Age 18, by Age, India NFHS - 3
36 Median Age at Sterilization of Women, India and Major States, INDIA Andhra Pradesh 0 Karnataka West Bengal Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Himachal Pradesh Haryana Orissa Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh Gujarat Kerala Rajasthan Jharkhand Punjab Assam Bihar Jammu & Kashmir Uttar Pradesh NFHS-3
37 Total Fertility Rate by Level of Education of Women Ages 15-49, 2007 Per cent Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh No formal education Below primary Primary Middle Class X Class XII Graduate & above Sample Registration System
38 Percent of Married Women, Ages 15-49, with Two Children Who Want No More, District Level Health Surveys, Selected States of India West Bengal Tamil Nadu Kerala Orissa Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Chhattisgarh Jharkhand Andhra Pradesh Bihar DLHS-1 and -3
39 Currently Married Women, Ages 15-49, Who Want No More Children by Number of Living Children and Number of Living Sons, India, NFHS-1 and NFHS-3 Per cent One living child Two Three Four No sons 1 son 2 sons No sons 1 son 2 sons Demographic and Health Surveys NFHS-1, NFHS-3,
40 Sex Ratio at Birth in Poorest-performing States of India, to Children per woman 1, Punjab Haryana Rajasthan Gujarat Himachal Pradesh Registrar General of India, Sample Registration System
41 Sex Ratio at Birth in Medium-performing States of India, to Children per woman 1, Uttar Pradesh Bihar Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Assam Registrar General of India, Sample Registration System
42 Sex Ratio at Birth in Best-performing States of India, to Children per woman 1, Madhya Pradesh Kerala Karnataka West Bengal Orissa Tamil Nadu Registrar General of India, Sample Registration System
43 Some Observations and Questions SRS birth rates are coming down. While birth rates are coming down, many large states are still in the middle of their fertility transition. Is the glass half empty or half full? Is a family size of two children in the cards for the EAG states and other higher-fertility states? If sex-selective abortion is successfully prohibited is a two child family likely? Cultural and societal values vary greatly across the country. What may hold true in one state may not in another. Village in Uttar Pradesh
44 Some Observations and Questions - con t The effectiveness of grass-roots programs such as NRHM is highly dependent on the cooperation of state governments. Will the very low TFRs observed in the south rise as affluence rises? Should subnational projections of large countries with varying TFRs be run and then aggregated to the national level? Would the above be worth the effort? Opinions in India regarding TFR prospects in UP, etc., see TFRs of 2.1 or lower as a distant dream. But, to repeat, SRS birth rates are declining. Village Tamil Nadu
45 Thank You
Maternal & Child Mortality and Total Fertility Rates. Sample Registration System (SRS) Office of Registrar General, India 7th July 2011
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