WATER FINANCE CONFERENCE: DENVER, COLORADO. Private Financing: The Future of P3 in Water August 2016 PRESENTATION

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1 WATER FINANCE CONFERENCE: DENVER, COLORADO Private Financing: The Future of P3 in Water August 2016 PRESENTATION GREENFIELD + WATER = BLUEFIELD

2 Focus of Presentation Defining Bluefield Research US Municipal Utility Landscape Key Market Drivers for Investment Evolving Private Water Landscape 2

3 Bluefield Research Focus Bluefield s insight services and reports are positioned to validate companies assumptions, address critical questions, and strengthen strategic planning processes as global water markets evolve. Business Strategies Companies approaching water as a business are often challenged by a lack of high quality, reliable information. News & Events Research & Analysis Bluefield bridges this gap with actionable, data-backed analysis supported by a transparent research methodology and ongoing access to our global water experts. Interactive relationship between client and research team to work through critical assumptions and changing market conditions. Technology Assessment 3

4 We Serve Companies Across the Water Industry Bluefield supports a diverse group global companies positioned across the water value chain, validating the quality and breadth of our insights. Technology / Equipment Providers Engineering Procurement Construction Firms Independent Water Providers Water & Wastewater Utilities Infrastructure Investors Industrial Companies Global Reach 4

5 U.S. Water Network Highly fragmented by 49,295 municipal water systems, 45% of the population is serviced by the 418 utilities serving over 100,000. Number of Water Systems by Size Water System Sizes by Population Served Number of Very Large Systems by State Medium 4,828 Small, 13,249 Very Large 418 Large 3,761 49,295 Water Systems Very Small 27,039 Population Served, Millions <1 to <10 >10 to <25 >25 Source: EPA, Bluefield Research 5

6 Sizing the Market Municipal Water & Wastewater Outlook Surpassing half a trillion dollars by 2025, the U.S. municipal water utility sector represents the single largest opportunity for water technology, equipment, engineering, and construction providers. Wastewater 44% Forecasted CAPEX, Stormwater 8% US$532 Billion Water 48% Total CAPEX Spend by Segment, Pumps 6% Other 12% Plants 29% US$532 Billion SmartWater 2% Pipes 51% Total CAPEX by Region, Central 2% Midwest 12% South 9% Southwest 14% North 1% US$532 Billion Atlantic 18% New England 1% West 25% Southeast 18% Source: Bluefield Research 6

7 Projected Population Growth Heightens Pressure in Key States Population growth anticipated to place additional pressure on utility infrastructure, demanding greenfield capacity additions to keep pace. State Population Growth vs. Water Usage per Capita Domestic Water Use (gallons / day / person) District of Columbia West Virginia North Dakota Wyoming Nebraska Louisiana Wisconsin Hawaii California Delaware Oregon Connecticut Idaho Utah Texas Washington Georgia North Carolina Florida Nevada Arizona Urban Population Growth Percent, Three states, California, Texas and Florida, are forecasted to increase by more than 37% on top current 63 million people. Scaling populations to drive new supply infrastructure spend reuse, desalination, and water transfer and need for innovation High water usage and growth rates signal opportunities for smart water and efficiencydriven investment. Source: EPA, USGS, U.S. Census Bureau, Bluefield Research 7

8 Pipe Infrastructure Getting Older Aging water infrastructure in the Northeast and Midwest underpin the regions higher rehabilitation costs going forward. Average Age of Pipes Average Age of Pipe Infrastructure by Decade Approximately 50% of U.S. infrastructure evaluated as poor to beyond planned life. The EPA estimates that 4,000 to 5,000 miles of water mains are replaced annually, which is expected to peak around 2035 at 16,000 to 20,000 miles. The national average for water losses in major U.S. cities ranges between 10% and 15% annually and below cities like Detroit and Philadelphia's approximate 30% levels. Source: AWWA, EPA, Bluefield Research 8

9 Declining Federal Funds Give Way to Localities Federal funding for water utilities peaked in 1976 at US$16.9 billion and has since fallen to US$4.3 billion in 2014, requiring states and localities to shoulder the burden of water infrastructure. US$ Billions Public Spending for Water Utilities, Federal vs. State Funding, Federal State and Local Public spending spending by federal, state, and local governments on water infrastructure totaled $108 billion in Over the last reported decade public spending on water CAPEX totaled US$455 billion. Another US$761 billion was spent on O&M. The lion s share of government spending, totaling 95%, is generated from state and local governments. Source: Congressional Budget Office, Bluefield Research PRIVATE WATER INSIGHT SERVICE 9

10 Municipal Bond Market Activity Steady headwinds for municipal bond markets pose long-term risks to utilities as infrastructure costs escalate. U.S. Municipal Bond Markets, Trading Volume, US$ Billion Municipal Bond Market Trends, Over the next decade, utilities will be forced, in many cases, to address their respective infrastructure gap, including US$176 billion of network upgrades. The combination of bond rate returns and rising CAPEX demands will increasingly squeeze municipalities to identify new, more innovative solutions Unforeseen water system volatility including supply disruptions (e.g. drought), infrastructure shortcomings (e.g. non-revenue water), are placing municipalities credit ratings at risk. Source: SIFMA, Bluefield Research PRIVATE WATER INSIGHT SERVICE 10

11 City Pricing Index for Water & Wastewater, 2016 Municipal water infrastructure, including services and equipment for outsourced O&M contracts is primarily financed locally through the rate base, and the revenues that underpin bond issuance. Price of Water & Wastewater by Volume, 2016 $8.00 Wastewater Price Water Price $7.00 $6.00 West Southeast Southwest Atlantic Midwest South Pacific New England North Central US$ per m 3 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- Seattle San Francisco Portland San Diego Los Angeles San Jose Oakdale Oakland Riverside Long Beach Fresno Atlanta Lawrenceville Raleigh Charlotte Jacksonville Marietta Miami Tampa Austin Houston Phoenix Dallas Fort Worth San Antonio El Paso Denver Albuquerque Las Vegas Richmond Washington DC Laurel Baltimore New York City Philadelphia Fairfax Cleveland Detroit Indianapolis Columbus Chicago Milwaukee Oklahoma Louisville Memphis Honolulu Boston Minneapolis Omaha Source: Utilities, Bluefield Research 11

12 Municipality Perspective: Drivers for Private Participation in Water In a highly public-controlled sector, municipalities move to incorporate private participation is based on a calibrated approach considering a spectrum of solutions to address specific financial and operational challenges. Key Drivers Financial Restructuring/ Distress Expansion/ upgrade Municipalities under financial stress seek to tap the private sector to improve debt position Mounting capital improvement obligations for EPA compliance of aging infrastructure Asset Management Communities seeking to improve service quality tap into professionalized, large scale IOUs Predominate model in US water market Model for public/private collaboration Increasingly viable option for municipalities Public Utility O&M Contracts Management Contracts Lease BOOT DBFO Concession Privatization Source: Bluefield Research 12

13 Private Players in the Water Value Chain A well defined competitive landscape with a number of outsiders looking in for strategic opportunities. Water Value Chain Segment Water Production Water Treatment Distribution Sewage System Wastewater Treatment Privatization / Concession IWP Model Core Water IOU Model Contracting Model PPP Concession O&M Service Agreement Evolving Model beyond O&M Agreements Ongoing/Complementary business line Source: Bluefield Research 13

14 Investor Owned Utility Presence The sum of IOU M&A activity in the past 3.5 years totals almost 313,000 customers driven by large scale deals in 2015 and early Large Scale IOUs >50,000 Served Southwest Water Company 4% American States Water Company 4% Source: Bluefield Research San Jose Water Company 3% Utilities, Inc 3% Liberty Utilities (Algonquin) 5% California Water Service Group 5% Aqua America 7% SUEZ 20% American Water Works Company 40% <2% Each -Artesian Resources -York Water Company -Global Water Resources -Great Oaks Water Company -Del Oro Water Company -Johnson Utilities -Middlesex Water -Connecticut Water Co. -Sn Gabriel water Co. -Epcor Utilities -Aquarion Water Company 14

15 Global companies across the value chain are developing strategies to capitalize on greenfield opportunities in water -- new build, new business models, and private investment. Bluefield Research supports a growing roster of companies across key technology segments and industry verticals addressing risks and opportunities in the new water landscape. Companies are turning to Bluefield for in-depth, actionable intelligence into the water sector and the sector's impacts on key industries. The insights draw on primary research from the water, energy, power, mining, agriculture, financial sectors and their respective supply chains. Bluefield works with key decision-makers at utilities, project development companies, independent water and power providers, EPC companies, technology suppliers, manufacturers, and investment firms, giving them tools to define and execute strategies. Contact Bluefield Research NORTH AMERICA 192 South St // Suite 550 Boston, MA T EUROPE Carrer de Sant Joan de la Salle 42 Edifici Technova, Barcelona, Spain T U.S. WATER INSIGHTS GREENFIELD + WATER = BLUEFIELD

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