Where Are We in the Chemical Cycle? The US shale boom, macro factors and outlook
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1 Where Are We in the Chemical Cycle? The US shale boom, macro factors and outlook Joseph Chang, Global Editor March 16, 2012 EBDQUIM 6 th Annual Meeting Salvador de Bahia, Brasil
2 Agenda Near-term profit outlook Chemical cycle Shale gas boom US ethylene expansions The coming bust Global dynamics
3 Near-term outlook Q4 not pretty marred by inventory destocking. Volumes flat to down Companies cautious on Q1 outlook Earnings will be back-end loaded (H2 2012), managements hope! Wall Street expects modest EPS gains for major chemical companies Big theme: INVENTORY RESTOCKING
4 US polyethylene margins expanding
5 Chemical cycle: boom and bust Peak: Markets tighten, companies ramp up spending Mid-cycle: Spending picks up, capacity added Trough: Capital investment slows and stops Capacity buildup takes its toll
6 Shale gas boom
7 Crude oil vs. US natural gas
8 US IPEX tracks WTI crude not natural gas 40 Henry Hub (daily) WTI (daily) US IPEX (monthly) US IPEX v WTI v Henry Hub IPEX and oil R2 =.881 IPEX and gas R2 = Day-ahead price ($/MMBTU) IPEX Index (1993 = 100) 0 0 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Source: ICIS, EIA Crude oil price divided by EIA s factor 5.8 to give equivalent energy value
9 US ethane advantage vs. naphtha 30 US Ethylene Variable Margins Ethane Advantage US Ethane Contract variable margin US Naphtha Contract variable margin 20.0 Ethylene Variable Margin cents/lb Ethane margin advantage, cents/lb Source: ICIS; 2012 average margins as of end January
10 US ethylene expansion plans US ETHYLENE EXPANSIONS BASED ON SHALE GAS Company Project Capacity Location Cost Start-up Chevron Phillips Chemical New cracker 1.5m tonnes Cedar Bayou, Texas NA Q Dow Chemical New cracker World-scale US Gulf Coast NA Shell New cracker World-scale US Northeast NA Formosa Plastics New cracker 800,000 tonnes Point Comfort, Texas $1.7bn 2016 Dow Chemical Restart 390,000 tonnes St. Charles, Louisiana NA end 2012 Westlake Chemical Expansion 108,863 tonnes Lake Charles, Louisiana NA H Williams Expansion 272,158 tonnes Geismar, Louisiana $350m- Q $400m INEOS Debottleneck 115,000 tonnes Chocolate Bayou, Texas NA end 2013 Westlake Chemical Expansion 113,399 tonnes Lake Charles, Louisiana NA 2014 LyondellBasell Expansion 386,000 tonnes Laporte, Texas NA 2014 Considered expansions Project Capacity Location Cost Start-up Indorama Ventures New cracker** 1.3m tonnes NA NA 2018 Sasol New cracker* 1.0m-1.4m tonnes Lake Charles, Louisiana $3.5bn- NA $4.5bn LyondellBasell Expansion NA Channelview, Texas NA NA SABIC New cracker World-scale US NA NA Braskem New cracker NA US NA NA Occidental Chemical New cracker*** NA Ingleside, Texas NA NA Aither Chemicals, Renewable Manufacturing Gateway New cracker NA US Northeast $750m 2016 *Feasibility study to be complete by H **Feasibility study to be complete by H ***Company to "explore various options for future supply of ethylene" Source: Companies, ICIS
11 New US ethylene capacity to 2017 New crackers: 6.0m tonnes* (5) Restarts: 390,000 tonnes (1) Expansions/debottlenecks: 995,000 tonnes (5) 7.4m tonnes = 28% of US capacity *Assumption of world-scale cracker at 1.25m tonnes/year
12 Mulling crackers, expansions Considered expansions Project Capacity Location Cost Start-up Indorama Ventures New cracker** 1.3m tonnes NA NA 2018 Sasol New cracker* 1.0m-1.4m tonnes Lake Charles, Louisiana $3.5bn- $4.5bn LyondellBasell Expansion NA Channelview, Texas NA NA SABIC New cracker World-scale US NA NA Braskem New cracker NA US NA NA Occidental Chemical New cracker*** NA Ingleside, Texas NA NA Aither Chemicals, Renewable Manufacturing Gateway New cracker NA US Northeast $750m 2016 NA *Feasibility study to be complete by H **Feasibility study to be complete by H ***Company to "explore various options for future supply of ethylene" Source: Companies, ICIS
13 Oxy wanna cracker? OxyChem s Ingleside plant is a large consumer of ethylene and the fractionator development will also allow Oxy to explore various options for future supply of ethylene for the Ingleside plant. - Occidental Petroleum press release, June 9, 2011 NGL fractionator + X = ethylene supply What is X? Cracker tie-up with Mexichem?
14 PLUS one more cracker New crackers: 6.0m tonnes* (4) Restarts: 390,000 tonnes (1) Expansions/debottlenecks: 995,000 tonnes (5) Total: 7.4m tonnes = 28% of US capacity PLUS one more world-scale cracker of 1.25m tonnes 8.6m tonnes = 32% of US capacity *Assumption of world-scale cracker at 1.25m tonnes/year
15 Projected US ethylene capacity additions through 2017 US ethylene additions Additional ethylene capacity, million tonne/year 2012 Source: ICIS Analysis
16 Where will the ethylene go? Polymers and intermediates PE, PVC, MEG, EO A slowly growing US market can absorb some capacity But mostly for EXPORT Asia, Latin America
17 Many things need to go right Low level of US natural gas prices versus crude oil US infrastructure build NGL fractionators, pipelines to carry ethane Moderate growth in global economy Lack of huge new capacity additions in the Middle East, Asia, Latin America Lack of other countries building out shale gas production and infrastructure
18 North America ethane conversions Company Conversion Capacity Location Start-up BASF FINA Petrochemicals Increase flexibility 934,000 tonnes Port Arthur, Texas Jun 2012 LyondellBasell Increase flexibility 873,000 tonnes (increase ethane by 227,000 tonnes) Channelview, Texas 2012 NOVA Chemicals 100% NGLs 839,000 tonnes Corunna, Ontario, Canada Westlake Chemicals Propane to ethane 195,000 tonnes Calvert City, Kentucky Dow Chemical Increase flexibility NA Plaquemine, Louisiana End 2013 NA 2014 Dow Chemical Increase flexibility NA Texas 2016 Source: Companies, ICIS
19 Structural shortages of C3, C4 Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha/Gas oil Ethylene 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Propylene C4s (BD feed) Source: ICIS
20 Sep 2011 Mar 2011 Sep 2010 Mar US olefins prices Ethylene Propylene (P-grade) Sep 2007 Mar 2008 Sep 2008 Mar 2009 Sep 2009 C en ts/lb Mar 2007 Source: ICIS
21 Global petrochemical dynamics POLITICS The West operates here China, the Middle East etc. SHARED VALUE OPERATES HERE ECONOMICS SOCIAL
22 Expansionary pushes through history Japan (1960s and 1970s) Security of raw materials for auto industry and other downstream industries South Korea and Thailand (late 1970s-early 1990s) Similar model China (2000s and 2010s) Security of supply to manufacturing industry Middle East (2010s) Building naphtha-based petrochemical capacity for more diversified product slate to spur downstream and employment Malaysia (2010s) $20bn refinery and petchem complex (RAPID) end of 2016 Latin America (2010s) Mexico s Ethylene XXI project Brazil s Comperj project
23 China s explosive growth
24 Europe has held its own Annual Regional HDPE Variable Margins ( ) 40 US contract HDPE variable margin (ethane) European contract HDPE variable margin (naphtha) Asian spot HDPE variable margin (naphtha) 30 HDPE variable margin, cents/lb Source: ICIS Weekly Margin Reports, 2012 average margin as of end January 2012
25 Conclusions Near-term profit outlook is positive, but hinges on inventory restocking Widening US ethylene and PE margins will also drive profit growth in 2012 Mid-term outlook: Good window of extended ethylene and derivatives profitability from , especially for US Long-term outlook: Flood of US ethylene capacity to lead to a downturn in 2017 US shale gas changes the dynamics in global petrochemicals, but it does not change the cycle
26 Thank You! Joseph Chang Global Editor Office:
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