PIDA Creating jobs for Africa s Youth. Professor Ahmadou Aly Mbaye University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Senegal

Transcription

1 PIDA Creating jobs for Africa s Youth Professor Ahmadou Aly Mbaye University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Senegal Abidjan, November 15, 2015

2 OUTLINE I Labor Supply and major Characteristics in Africa II- Business Environment and the Demand for Labor III- What Infrastructure Services Can Achieve IV- Structural Reforms that Are Needed

3 I-Labor Supply and major Characteristics in Africa

4 Labor Supply and major Characteristics in Africa Demographic transition High population growth rate Urban population growing even faster Overwhelming labor supply mainly from youth, with high growth rates Pervasiveness of informal employment with precarious conditions Small levels of officials unemployment High proportions of underemployment Important share of neither in education nor in employment

5

6 Population growth rate, average (%) Total Urban Rural BENIN 2,7 4,1 1,5 BURKINA FASO COTE D IVOIRE 2,8 6 1,8 2,3 3,6 0,7 NIGER 3,9 4,9 3,2 SENEGAL 2,9 3,3 2,1 Source: KLM, 8 ème édition, 2015

7 Low pay Precarious and vulnerable employment No written contract Low levels of education Self employed No social coverage High gender bias EMPLOYMENT

8 Régions/Countries/Years North Africa 53.0 Sub saharan Africa 70.5 West Africa 73,6 Benin 96.3 Burkina Faso 90.5 Côte d Ivoire 69.7 Ghana 65.3 Guinea (1995) 86.7 Libéria 56.4 Mali 82.7 Mauritania (1988) 80.0 Niger (1977) 62.9 Nigeria (1998) 42.9 Senegal (1984) 76.0 Central Africa 85,4 Cameroon 84.0 DRC 77.0 Chad (1996) 95.2 East Africa 65,3 Ethiopia (1999) 64.8 Kenya 76.8 Ouganda 73.5 Tanzania 46.0 Southern Africa 62,3 South Africa 32.7 Lesotho 70.7 Madagascar 73.7 Mozambique 87.2 Namibia 43.8 Zambia 76.3 Zimbabwe 51.6 Latin America 57.7 South and South east Asia 69.7 Source: OCDE(2010) 8

9 Number of Workers Enrolled in the IPRES Retirement Program, Level and as a Ratio of the Working Age Population

10 New Registered Employment Contracts and Labor Force Growth in Senegal Sources: Senegal Office of Labor Statistics, World Bank World Development Indicators and authors calculations

11 Unemployment rates in Africa, 2006 a Rates Sub Saharan Africa, Low Income Countries Benin 0,7 Burkina Faso 2,3 Cameroun 2,9 Ethiopie 17 Ghana 3,6 Madagascar 2,6 Malawi 7,8 Senegal 10 Tanzanie 4,3 Uganda 2 Zambie 15,9 Zimbabwe 4,2 Sub Saharan Africa, Middle Income Countries Botswana 17,6 Mauritius 9,1 Afrique du Sud 22,6 North Africa Egypte 10,6 Maroc 9,7 Tunisie 12,5 Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. a 2002 for Benin, 2004 for Malawi and Zimbabwe, 2005 for Uganda and Zambia, 2007 for Cameroon. 11

12 Youth (15 24) Neither in Education nor in Employment, by gender Pays Total Hommes Femmes Total Hommes Femmes Bénin 8,8 7,1 10,3 3,9 2,9 5,1 Burkina Faso 9,7 4,5 14,3 17, ,3 Mali 21,8 12,3 28,9 11,1 7,8 13,9 Niger 23,1 12, ,2 38,3 53,5 Sénégal 43,2 23,8 60,1 Guinée Bissau Maroc 35,7 17,4 53,7 31,4 12,5 50,6 Cameroun 10,1 6,4 13,5 10,8 4,7 16 Youth (15-24) Neither in Education nor in Employment, by Geographic Location Pays Urbain Rural Urbain Rural Bénin 11,8 6,4 4,7 3,3 Burkina Faso 25,9 5,1 18,8 16,8 Mali 10,3 29,7 9,1 11,8 Niger 30,8 18,8 31,7 51,3 Sénégal 35,1 50,5 Guinée Bissau Maroc 35,6 35,7 27,8 35,6 Cameroun 15,3 6,2 14,5 7,6 Source: KLM, 8 ème edition, 2015

13 II- Business Environment and the Demand for Labor

14 A simple Framework to Assess Business Environment

15 A simple Framework to Assess Business Environment (cont ed) RULCi = a i. a i * i / w */ p w pi. i i * e PPP i e RULC MANUFACTURE IS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE Relative productivity Relative real wages Exchange rate relative to PPP

16 African Relative Unit Labor Costs vis a vis China: Falling but Still Very High for most countries Ethiopia Kenya Mauritius Senegal South Africa Tanzania

17 Indicators of the Business Climate, Selected Countries Sources: World Bank World Development Indicators, Doing Business, Investment Climate Assessments. 17

18 III- What Infrastructure Services Can Achieve

19 III- What Infrastructure Services Can Achieve Energy Telecommunication Reduce the costs and improve the supply of non tradable services Water Irrigation Transportation Public work

20 III- What Infrastructure Services Can Achieve Hence jobs Create direct and indirect jobs Improve access and effectiveness of training systems Upgrade SMEs through trade and subcontracting

21 Firm productivity as a function of perceived constraint on power supply Minor obstacle Moderate obstacle Major obstacle Very Severe Obstacle 21

22 IV- Structural Reforms that Are Needed

23 Improve regulatory framework Corruption Red tape Justice Market performanc Promote innovation technical institutional Increase capabilities in infrastructure program planning Financing modalities Implementation Monitoring What infrastructure for what type of employment?

24 The Example of Wetland Management in Senegal river Valley Institutional setting of Debi-Tiguet Managing Unit A cooperative Approach of Organizational Setting Interactions in service rendering inside the Union Effective Interactions with Partners Interaction in seeds production and distribution inside the Union

25 4 Institutional and impact analysis of DIP Benchmarking DIP against reference projects (1) 25

26 4 Institutional and impact analysis of DIP Benchmarking DIP against reference projects (2) 26

27 Regulation is key Adress Shortage of Relevant Expertise Avoid regulatory agencies Being captured by influence groups Conciliate conflicting interest of various groups CHALLENGES TO INFRASTRUCTURE REGULATION Maintaining sustainable price structure of services while mitigating firm market power Make sure all stakeholders are involved in regulatory processes

28 REGIONALIZATION OF REGULATION MUTUALIZE SCARCE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE IMPROVE CREDIBILITY OF REGULATORY FRAMEWORK MITIGRATE INTEREST GROUPS INFLUENCES REDUCE PROBABILITY OF POLICY REVERSALS

29 MODELS OF INFRASTRUCTURE REGULATION REGIONALIZATION Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (2003), repris par Kessides, Noll and Benjamin (2010)

30 Thank You for Attention