Technology, Government, and Enterprise: Fossil Fuels

Transcription

1 Stillwater Associates LLC Technology, Government, and Enterprise: Fossil Fuels SE2 Fellows Network 2011 David Hackett Stillwater Associates LLC UC Irvine July 25, 2011 Zao An Stillwater Associates is an energy consultancy with offices in Southern California, Houston, Washington DC, and Portland, OR. Our practice areas include: energy policy, energy technology development, mergers & acquisitions, and litigation support Stillwater consultants have many years of industry experience Work conducted on domestic energy infrastructure issues includes: 2002 study for the California Energy Commission on impact of MTBE phase out 2002 study for the CEC the feasibility of creating a strategic fuels reserve 2003 studies for Hawaii on gasoline price controls and an ethanol outlook 2003 study for the U.S. Dept. of Energy s Energy Information Administration on the impact of the NY/CT MTBE bans 2004 & 2005 study of boutique gasoline issues for the American Petroleum Institute 2010 analysis for the Department of Energy s Office of Policy and International Affairs on the Renewable Fuel Standard 2011 retained by refining companies in South America and Eastern Europe to provide consulting services Stillwater has been advising commercial clients on ethanol and biodiesel projects in since

2 Stillwater Associates LLC Agenda Petroleum supply & demand Renewable transportation fuels Technology developments in oil & gas Discussion Proprietary and Confidential UC Irvine July 25,

3 The petroleum industry is navigating in a sea of change Oil prices are high and volatile and likely to stay that way. High prices are driving a huge increase in the use of renewable fuels, with corn based ethanol as the volume leader. Government policies to reduce dependence on petroleum and reduce greenhouse gases have had a significant impact on fossil energy. 3

4 Business people want to steer the right (energy) course It is important for participants in the market to understand the big picture. 4

5 Technology development, government and markets are changing winds Regulations mandating renewable energy are shaping markets, while at the same time, technology development in the petroleum space is improving oil & gas supply. 5

6 These changes create opportunities for prepared participants Understanding the fundamentals will help you to appreciate the upcoming trends. 6

7 You need to understand how to steer with these winds In today s talk, you will get what you need to the issues from a U.S perspective. 7

8 First we will discuss the numbers We are going to talk about oil supply and demand. 8

9 Petroleum price outlook is a function of supply & demand Source: Energy Information Administration The Energy Information Administration is a unit of the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA publishes an Annual Energy Outlook that I have used extensively in this presentation. EIA forecasts three supply and demand scenarios and calculates world crude oil prices for each of these scenarios. The prices range from $200 to $50 per barrel. The reference case reflects current assumptions on economic growth. The high oil price assumes robust economic growth. 9

10 How big an impact will renewable fuels have worldwide? Renewable fuels will play an increasing, although minor role. Coal-to-Liquids and Gas-to-Liquids fuels will also play a minor role. US petroleum demand is about 14 million barrels per day. China s demand is about 9 mmbd. 10

11 Government creates incentives to reduce dependence on fossil fuels In the U.S., federal and state governments are taking steps to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gases. 11

12 The utilities have to meet a renewable portfolio standard EIA projects that renewable-generated electricity will account for 17% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2035, up from 9% in This growth is driven mainly by the extension of Federal tax credits and the new loan guarantee program in the February 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). From a global perspective, EIA projects that renewable energy will be the fastestgrowing source of electricity generation through the forecast period to Much of the increase is expected to be from hydroelectric power and wind power. 12

13 Most renewable sources generate electricity Most petroleum is used for transportation energy. Natural gas, coal and nuclear are primarily used for power generation or industrial uses. 13

14 Renewable biofuels supply in the U.S. will increase Million barrels per day The main U.S. biofuel is ethanol, which is primarily made from corn. Biodiesel, made from vegetable oils or animal fats, is also produced in limited quantities because feedstock prices are high. Significant investor resources are going into the development of cellulosic ethanol, which would be made from non-food sources like wood chips, rice straw, or municipal solid waste. Other technology developers are looking to tailor the DNA of bacteria to have them produce fuels from oxygen and water. 14

15 The Federal Government has a Renewable Fuel Standard The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, also known as the renewable fuel standard, mandates the increasing use of renewable fuels. The optimistic volume targets set by the legislation will not be attained until later because of lagging technology development. 15

16 California has a Low Carbon Fuel Standard 16

17 Government mandated vehicle fuel efficiency improvements will reduce demand Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards are designed to improve the miles per gallon that cars get, further reducing petroleum useage and reducing greenhouse gases. 17

18 Technology development is also changing oil supply Improvements in drilling technology have lead to significant increases in gas & oil supply 18

19 Drilling technology has become very sophisticated Drillers can accurately steer the drill bit to hit oil formations 19

20 Shale deposits are relatively narrow deposits of oil & gas rich rock. These deposits are wide spread across the country. 20

21 The technology has an impact on natural gas supply Horizontal drilling has resulted in a significant increase in natural gas production in the U.S. 21

22 U.S. natural gas is likely to be cheap Because of the increase in supply, natural gas is forecast to remain cheap, relative to petroleum, in this case diesel fuel. This price advantage is likely to spur an increase in the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel, likely as Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). 22

23 Crude oil production from horizontal drilling is growing strongly This illustrates how horizontal drilling has increased the production of crude oil as well. North Dakota is a rural state along the border with Canada. The Bakken field is the major contributor to this increase. 23

24 The technology has an impact on crude oil markets Brent / West Texas Intermediate Spread ($/bbl) In the past, the two benchmark sweet (low sulfur) crude oils North Sea Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate, traded at around the same value. Crude oil production in the center of North America has increased beyond the capability of the regional pipelines to deliver crude oil to the refineries on the Gulf Coast. This has dramatically depressed the price of WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. As well, the war with Libya, a sweet crude producer, has reduced the supply of Brent type crude into Europe, increasing the price of Brent. 24

25 Outlook for world wide shale deposits Initial assessments of 48 shale gas basins in 32 countries suggest that shale gas resources, which have recently provided a major boost to U.S. natural gas production, are also available in other world regions. A new EIA-sponsored study reported initial assessments of 5,760 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of technically recoverable shale gas resources in 32 foreign countries, compared with 862 Tcf in the United States. Do other countries have similar opportunities to develop shale gas? To begin to address that question, EIA sponsored Advanced Resources International, Inc., to assess 48 gas shale basins in 32 countries, containing almost 70 shale gas formations. This effort has culminated in the report: World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States. (source: 25

26 Can business people navigate this uncertain sea? 26

27 The winds of changing markets & regulations create confusion It is hard to keep up. 27

28 You will have stay alert for the changes 28

29 The use of renewable fuels will increase, but 29

30 Don t assume oil will be out of the picture 30

31 Increased supply will lower oil prices Improved drilling technology has increased natural gas supply, reducing prices in the U.S. This same technology is impacting crude oil prices here as well. How long will it take before this technology becomes adopted around the world? 31

32 Stillwater Associates LLC experience runs deep Presenter: Dave Hackett An energy consulting firm focused on energy policy, energy technology development, mergers & acquisitions, and litigation support Rainstar Irvine, CA USA 32