Great Plains and Midwest Climate Outlook June 16, 2016
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1 Great Plains and Midwest Climate Outlook June 16, 2016 Brian Fuchs Climatologist National Drought Mitigation Center NOAA s Drought Risk Management Research Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln bfuchs2@unl.edu Pathfinder Dam in Wyoming June Photo courtesy of Chad McNutt, McNutt Ranch
2 General Information Providing climate services to the Central Region Collaboration Activity Between: Dennis Todey (South Dakota State Climatologist), Jim Angel (Illinois State Climatologist), Doug Kluck (NOAA), State Climatologists and the Midwest Regional Climate Center, High Plains Regional Climate Center, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center, Brian Fuchs and Mark Svoboda (National Drought Mitigation Center) Next Climate/Drought Outlook Webinar July 21, 2016 with Stuart Foster, Kentucky State Climatologist Access to Future Climate Webinars and Information Past recorded presentations and slides can be found here: There will be time for questions at the end
3 Current Conditions Agenda Regional Climate Updates Outlooks Corn fields outside Columbia, MO. Photos courtesy of Pat Guinan, MO State Climatologist
4 Current Conditions
5 30-Day Temperature Departure
6 May 2016 Climate
7 30-Day Precipitation
8 Evaporative Stress Index (ESI)
9 90-Day Precipitation
10 March-May 2016 Climate
11 Year to Date Precipitation
12 Year to Date Temperature
13 28-Day Average Streamflow
14 28-Day Average Streamflow
15 28-Day Average Streamflow
16 28-Day Average Streamflow
17
18
19 Great Lakes
20
21 Soil Moisture Anomaly
22 NASS Soil Moisture Conditions v/statistics_by_state/
23 GDD s
24 USDM Map for 7/16
25 As of 6/14/16 just over 67,200,000 people are being impacted by drought in the CONUS.
26 Regional USDM map 7/16
27 MO Basin USDM 7/16
28
29 Regional Impacts Rapid spring melt-off of snowpack in the Rocky Mountains
30 Flash Drought Developing?
31 Early June Extreme Heat June 9, daily-record highs in South Dakota climbed to 100 F in Aberdeen and 95 F in Sioux Falls Rapid City closed the week with consecutive dailyrecord highs (98 and 103 F, respectively) on June In Wyoming, daily-record highs for June 10 surged to 99 F in Greybull and Worland. The following day, record-setting highs for June 11 reached 102 F in Valentine, NE, and 100 F in Mitchell, SD.
32 Climate Outlooks 7-day precipitation forecast 8-14 day outlook ENSO Outlook Monthly/Seasonal Autumn Outlook (Sep-Oct) Winter Outlook ( Dec-Feb ) Spring Outlook (Mar-May) Seasonal Drought Outlook
33
34 8-14 day Outlook
35
36
37 Monthly and Seasonal Outlook
38 Autumn Outlook SON
39 Winter Outlook DJF
40 Seasonal Drought Outlook
41 Summary Most of the region has been warmer than normal and drier than normal over the last month has been well above normal for temperatures over the region. A rapid melt of the Rocky Mountain snow has sent a great deal of water into the Platte and Missouri Basins. Drought is not an issue currently in the region, but we are watching conditions closely as temperatures are stressing conditions along with the lack of rain. Sub-Soil moisture is good based upon full recharge (December). Flash Drought developing in places already. La Nina will continue to intensify, we should anticipate a La Nina winter for
42 Further Information - Partners Today s and Past Recorded Presentations and : NOAA s National Climatic Data Center: Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): NOAA s Climate Prediction Center: Climate Portal: U.S. Drought Portal: National Drought Mitigation Center: State climatologists Regional climate centers
43 Thank You and Questions? Questions: Climate: Brian Fuchs: Jim Angel: Dennis Todey: Doug Kluck: John Eise: Mike Timlin: Natalie Umphlett: Weather:
44 Contact Information: Brian Fuchs National Drought Mitigation Center NOAA s Drought Risk Management Research Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln
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