PACS: Wc. , 5 7 d [1] d, d ( Acta Phys. Sin. Vol. 61, No. 20 (2012) ( ; )

Transcription

1 d * 1) 1)2) 1) 2) 1) (, ) 2) (,, ) ( ; ) , d,.. :,,, ;,, ;, ,. :,, PACS: Wc 1,, 5 7 d [1].,, [2 9].,, [10 15]. [16],,,,. [17] ;,. [18,19],. [20],, d 60 d, d, d 120 E d ( * ( : , , ) ( : 2012CB955902) ( : GYHY , GYHY ). fenggl@cma.gov.cn c 2012 Chinese Physical Society

2 ),.,., d, d, 60 d d, 10 d d. Center for Environmental Prediction, NCEP) (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR) 200, hpa, , d 500 hpa d, d, (EOF) , 30 d d, d d hpa 60 d 120 E - ( gpm) , 1 C 4 C, 4 C 6 C;, 5, 2. 11,, mm, 6.2 mm, 5 2, 2 [21],,. [22,23].,,,,,, (National d d d.,.,,,. 2009, d,., d ( 3), 3 50,, 16.8% , 20.,, 1, 13.2%, 8 7, 7.5% 7.3%

3 d. 20, Y = 0,, Y 1 15, Y. 2 Y d Y 3 (a) 2009 (b) ,,.,.,, d, d. Y, 30 d EOF Y d ; EOF Y Y, d, Y. Y, d, :

4 ., Y = 1 Y = d d ( 3). 3, Y = 2, d Y = 1, 3 6,, Y = d Y = Y = 1, d Y = d Y = d d,., d,. [24], : m x i y i i=1 cos θ = m m x 2 i i=1 yi 2 i=1, (1), cos θ, m, x i y i i. 1 1, 1( 1), ( ), 1,, 1, ; 0. : hpa d d 30, d, EOF d,. 3., 20,. 2 Y d, 30 d d 30 d COR (Y ), d 20. Y = 1 2, Y, d,, d,,,,, d,

5 , Y = 5, 0.13., 5 Y = 5,,,., Y = 5. Y = 3, 0.11, Y = 4,, , d, hpa d, Y = d,,, d EOF., d 60 d, hpa, 6,,,., ,.,,,, hpa, 7., ( 7(c)),,,., , 500, 850 hpa. 7,,. 850 hpa,, hpa d,,.,,.,, hpa. 8, 11,,,.,.,,

6 Ô n Æ Acta Phys. Sin. Vol. 61, No. 20 (2012) øb µ 6/³, ù«uíxúrfcz ÜYðÑxE 11 þ! Í Ý é kïue í±yhe, r Ieæ í, üy õ XÈ È ). ã c 500 hpa pý íÿ µ m Ù (a) 11 5 F; (b) F; (c) F; (d) F; (e) F; (f) F (ü gpm) ã c 11 9 Fíÿ µ R Ù (a) 200 hpa; (b) 500 hpa; (c) 850 hpa (ü gpm) $

7 hpa (a) 11 5 ; (b) ; (c) ; (d)11 20 ( gpm) 5 EOF, , hpa d d,. 60 d, : 1),,, ; 2),, ; 3), ,., d.,,,. [1] Chen D H, Xue J S 2004 Acta Meteor. Sin (in Chinese) [, ] [2] Lorenz E N 1965 Tellus [3] Lorenz E N 1969 J. Atmos. Sci [4] Lorenz E N 1982 Tellus [5] Mu M, Duan W S 2005 Chin. Sci. Bull (in Chinese) [, ] [6] Chou J F 2002 The Nonlinearity and Complexity in Atmospheric Science (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp (in Chinese) [ 2002 ( : ) ] [7] Feng G L, Dai X G, Wang A H, Chou J F 2001 Acta Phys. Sin (in Chinese) [,,, ] [8] He W P, Feng G L, Dong W J, Li J P 2006 Acta Phys. Sin (in Chinese) [,,, ] [9] Wang P, Dai X G 2005 Acta Phys. Sin (in Chinese) [, ] [10] Ding R Q, Li J P, Seo K H 2011 Mon. Wea. Rev [11] Wei F Y, Huang J Y 2010 J. Trop. Meteor (in Chinese) [, ] [12] Yang Q M 2009 Sci. China D (in Chinese) [ 2009 (D ) ] [13] Chen G J, Wei F Y, Gong Y F 2010 Quart. J. Appl. Meteor (in Chinese) [,, ] [14] Zhi R, Gong Z Q, Wang Q G, Xiong K G 2011 Acta Phys. Sin (in Chinese) [,,, ] [15] Wang K, Feng G L, Sun S P, Zheng Z H 2012 Acta Phys. Sin (in Chinese) [,,, ] [16] Chou J F, Zheng Z H, Sun S P 2010 Sci. Meterol. Sin (in Chinese) [,, ] [17] Ding Y H, Liang P 2010 Meteorological Monthly (in Chi

8 nese) [, ] [18] Sun G W, Xin F, Kong C Y, Chen B M, He J H 2010 Plateau Meteor (in Chinese) [,,,, ] [19] Sun G W, Kong C Y, Xin F, Chen B M, He J H 2011 Plateau Meteor (in Chinese) [,,,, ] [20] Li J P, Ding R Q 2008 Chin. J. Atmos. Sci (in Chinese) [, ] [21] Climate System Monitoring Bulletin, National Climate Center http: // cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn / Monitoring / bulletin.php [ ] (in Chinese) [ http: // cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn / Monitoring / bulletin.php ] [22] Chen H B, Fan X H 2010 Clim. Environ. Res (in Chinese) [, ] [23] Ding D P, Zhang A Y, Han C, Ren G Y, Xie Z 2010 Clim. Environ. Res (in Chinese) [,,,, ] [24] Shi N 2009 Meteorological Statistical Forecasts (Beijing: China Meteorological Press) pp (in Chinese) [ 2009 ( : ) ] Study of the stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming days during the snow storm event in November 2009 Wang Kuo 1) Feng Guo-Lin 1)2) Sun Shu-Peng 1) Zheng Zhi-Hai 2) 1) ( College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou , China ) 2) ( Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing , China ) ( Received 8 March 2012; revised manuscript received 6 April 2012 ) Abstract In this paper, we extract stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming days by using empirical orthogonal function analysis and some other methods during the snow storm event in November At the first time, stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming days can be divided into two parts: climatic stable components and abnormal stable components, by contribution rate analysis, similarity coefficient and so on. We combine climatic stable components and low-pass filter components to obtain climatological background field. The results show as follows. 1) The circulation pattern of climatological background field persists for a long time and changes slowly. It provides climatological background for the weather event mainly. 2) The climatological background field can indicate the fluctuations of semi-permanent or permanent center with a large space scales. The climatological background field cooperates well in vertical divisions. 3) The abnormal stable components reflect abnormal circulation, and the circulation pattern of abnormal stable components corresponds to the snow storm event in November 2009 well on the time scale. The climatological background field represents circulation pattern background and the abnormal stable components represent the relative strength of weather system. Keywords: climatic stable components, abnormal stable components, climatological background field PACS: Wc * Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos , , ), the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902), and the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant Nos. GYHY , GYHY ). fenggl@cma.gov.cn