here Scottish Public Opinion Monitor October 2012

Transcription

1 Scottish Public Opinion Monitor October 2012

2 Independence 2

3 Support for independence has fallen to 30% among those certain to vote, down five points since June Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? 3 All Certain to vote Undecided 19% 28% Yes Undecided 12% Yes 30% No 52% No 58% Yes change since June = -4% Yes change since June = -5% Base: All = 1,003; all certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

4 Support for independence is highest among men, those aged and SNP supporters Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? 4 Men Women SNP Labour Cons. Lib Dem 67% 37% 24% 27% 30% 35% 27% 17% 11% 4% 7% Yes No 54% 61% 63% 49% 55% 62% 79% 92% 86% Base: All certain to vote = 66% (688). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

5 Support for independence has fallen by nine points since January Q. Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? 5 January 2012 June 2012 October % 35% 30% Yes No 50% 55% 58% Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

6 Support for independence (%) Support for independence 35 year trend Introduction of the poll tax in Scotland Devolution referendum Scottish Parliament opens SNP form majority government Devolution referendum SNP form minority government 0 Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling ( data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

7 Scottish Parliament voting 7

8 The SNP have a five point lead over Labour among those certain to vote Q. If t were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? 8 Lib Dem All giving a voting intention (91%) Others 8% 5% SNP Lib Dem All who are certain to vote (63%) Others 8% 4% SNP Cons. 12% 36% Cons. 13% 40% Labour 39% Labour 35% SNP lead over Labour = -3% SNP lead over Labour = +5% Base: All giving a voting intention = 88% (880); all certain to vote = 63% (642). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

9 although Labour have closed the gap considerably since January Q. If t were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote? 9 60 Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other Scottish Parliament Election Result Scottish Parliament Election Result % 35% 13% 8% 4% Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

10 10 Satisfaction with party leaders

11 Satisfaction with all party leaders has fallen since June except for the Prime Minister 11 Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction change (Jun 12) Alex Salmond 40% 50% 9% +10% -3% Johann Lamont 30% 35% 34% +5% -4% Ruth Davidson 35% 26% 39% -9% -2% Willie Rennie 30% 23% 47% -7% -3% Patrick Harvie 16% 22% 62% +6% -6% David Cameron 64% 29% 8% -35% +11% Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

12 Satisfaction with Alex Salmond and Johann Lamont has fallen among their own party s supporters Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? 12 Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know Net satisfaction Net satisfaction change (Jun 12) Alex Salmond 9% 83% 8% +74% -10% Johann Lamont 18% 58% 24% +40% -6% Ruth Davidson 18% 59% 23% +41% +15% Willie Rennie 15% 54% 31% +39% +5% David Cameron 16% 75% 9% +59% +27% Base: 1,003 Scottish adults 18+, 8-15 October 2012

13 Satisfaction with party leader trends 13 Q. How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way is doing his/her job as First Minister//Prime Minister/Leader of Scottish Labour/the Scottish Liberal Democrats/the Scottish Conservatives? 70 Alex Salmond Johann Lamont Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie % 35% 26% 23% 22% 10 0 Feb-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

14 Technical details 14 This presents the topline results from Scotland Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents conducted by telephone Fieldwork dates: 8th October 15th October 2012 Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data W results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of don t know categories Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless otherwise stated

15 Thank you This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006.