Introduction to Latin American Product Sector Analysis

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3 Introduction to Latin American Product Sector Analysis US refined product seaborne exports have doubled in the last six years from 49 million tonnes in 2008 to more than 100Mntonnes in This is equivalent to more than an extra 800 MR voyages per year. The surge in exports is the result of the shale revolution, which has afforded US refiners a cost advantage over the rest of the world. Gasoil/diesel has been the headline story behind the US product export boom. It dominates the market with more than 50% market share. It displaced fuel oil as the most important US export in However, a new story emerged in 2014 with the doubling of naphtha exports. Only a sixth of the size of the gasoil/diesel trade, naphtha is in demand as a petrochemical feedstock. Condensate may become the story in 2015 with a rule clarification by the US government at the end of 2014 opening up the prospect of processed lease condensate exports. Traditionally, South America has been by far the most important market for US product exports. It remains the top destination today with 53% market share in 2013 followed by OECD Europe (16%) and Canada (13%). No other region has yet emerged as a major import region for US exports. South East Asia is the fourth largest import region but it takes just 5% of US exports. US refined product exports have been one of the success stories of the US economic renaissance. However during 2014, tanker owners only really experienced a rate bounce when oil prices started to crumble in the second half of There is considerable nervousness about the impact of a prolonged period of low oil prices on the crude oil and gas sectors. However, in the short term low oil prices provide a boost to the global economy, and look set to underpin US product exports and US product tanker freight rates in 1H15. Latin America has been at the mercy of rising US product exports in part because of a failure to deliver promised refinery projects. Brazil and Ecuador are expected to make relatively small refinery capacity additions in 2015, but these will be unlikely to dent the growth of US product exports. Given its importance for US exports and the product tanker market, this has led Charles Weber to develop a series of detailed country bycountry factsheets covering the South American refined product market. Each factsheet combines shipping and oil sector data. The information covered includes information about existing and planned product tanker port capacity, information about existing and planned refinery capacity, and details of product supply/demand trends.

4 Focus on Latin America What is the Appetite for More US Product Exports? South America is the most important destination for US exports with 53% market share in This chapter takes a close look at product demand prospects for individual South American countries to see whether or not the trade will remain strong in the future. Methodology behind the study of US crude oil product export prospects in South America In order to understand whether the US/South American products trade will remain strong we examine product demand prospects for individual South American countries and produce a series of profiles. To build these profiles, we look at a number of factors: (1) Population growth forecasts (2) GDP growth forecasts (3) The profile of product demand by product (4) Refinery expansion plans

5 Individual Country Profiles Before looking at the individual country profiles, it is worth making a few general observations about crude oil product demand and trade flows in the region. In the early 2000s, nearly all South American countries were net exporters of products albeit on a small scale. Today, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and Mexico are significant net importers of products, while Colombia moved into negative territory in Venezuela is the only significant net exporter in the region, while Peru is just about holding on to its status as a net exporter. This switch from a net exporting to net importing region has been caused by a general failure to upgrade refinery capacity in line with expanding demand caused by GDP and population growth. US product exports claim significant market share in all of the major South American countries. Market share ranges from around 30% for Brazil to 90% for Chile. Its overall market share across all products and all countries in the region is 62%. Its next largest competitor is Netherlands (5%). China (4%) and India (4%) both have a foothold in the region. The completion of work to expand the Panama Canal in 4Q15/1Q16 will allows LR2 product tankers to transit through the choke point for the first time. This will have significant implications for the development of the trade in the region. Summary of US Export Prospects by Country Argentina: The prospects for further growth in US product exports to Argentina are mixed. On the downside, Argentina's refinery expansion programme (YPF's new 300Kbd greenfield refinery at Bahia Blanca) will increase capacity by 50% by On the upside, the refinery has yet to get the go ahead. There is also scope for the US to increase on its current 44% market share, while rising GDP and rapid population growth (UN forecast growth from 41.4Mn in 2013 to 51Mn in 2050) will stimulate domestic demand.

6 Brazil: On the face of it there is plenty of scope for the US to increase products exports to Brazil from its current market share of just 30%. While Brazil is planning to add four new refineries with total capacity 0.4Mnbd, the earliest refinery is not scheduled for completion until 2017, while Brazilian population growth is on an upward trajectory from 200Mn today to 230Mn by At the very least, US exports have a window of opportunity; it is likely that Brazil will be an important export destination for the foreseeable future. Two thirds of exports to Brazil are gasoil/diesel. It became the largest importer of this product in 2012 overtaking India, which had held the No.1 spot for ten years. Chile: The prospects for further growth in US product exports to Chile are mixed. On the downside, with 90% market share already, there is little scope to squeeze out other exporters. Therefore, the US must hope that the absence of a domestic refinery building programme, rising GDP and population growth (UN forecast growth from 17.6Mn in 2013 to 20.8Mn in 2050) will enable its exports to Chile to continue to grow. Colombia: The short term prospects for further growth in US product exports to Colombia look quite good based on the ageing profile of Colombia's refinery industry, the current poor labour relations climate, as well as rising GDP and rapid population growth (UN forecast growth from 48.3Mn in 2013 to 62.9Mn in 2050). In the longer term, the prospects for further growth in US product exports to Colombia are much less promising because it has a significant refinery expansion programme which could see capacity increase from 336Kbd to close to 500Kbd. An 85Kbd greenfield refinery adjacent to the existing refinery in Cartagena is the main project. It is expected to complete in 2015, although a project to increase the size of vessels accessing Cartagena (from 85KDwt to 160KDwt) will not be completed until A smaller 50Kbd expansion to the Barrancabermeja refinery is scheduled for 2016.

7 Ecuador: The short term prospects for further growth in US product exports to Ecuador look quite good based on the current limitations of Ecuador's refining system even taking into account the upgrade at Esmeraldas, as well as rising GDP and rapid population growth (UN forecast growth from 15.7Mn in 2013 to 23.1Mn in 2050). In the longer term, the prospects for further growth in US product exports to Ecuador are much less promising and hinge on the viability of Ecuador's refinery expansion programme. The greenfield development of the 300Kbd Pacific Refinery is intended to allow Ecuador to enter the export market as a serious player. The two phase project, (P1: Kbd, P2: Kbd) is a joint venture between Petroecuador, Venezuela's PDVSA and the China National Petroleum Company. There is some doubt about the viability of project, but the associated port development project at Mantra seems to be moving ahead. Ecuador has a second much smaller refinery expansion (20Kbd) planned for the existing Shushufindi Refinery. Mexico: It is the primary target of US product exporters. With Mexico's refinery expansion projects not due to come onstream until 2017 at the earliest, it is likely that the US will look to increase its exports to Mexico significantly. In the longer term, a UN forecast estimates that Mexico's population is set to rise from 122Mn in 2013 to 140Mn in 2050, which will ensure long term product demand growth. Mexico is particularly dependent on gasoline imports. This is in part because of its increasingly heavy domestic crude oil slate. Perhaps US exporters might find a way of exporting its lighter grades to Mexico under license in the same way in does for Canada. Peru: The prospects for further growth in US product exports to Peru are mixed. On the upside, rising GDP and rapid population growth (UN forecast growth from 30.4Mn in 2013 to 41.1Mn in 2050) will stimulate domestic demand. On the downside, the US already controls 82% of Peru's product imports so there is little scope to increase market share, while Petroperu announced at the end of 2013 that it intended to increase capacity at its main Talara refinery by 33Kbd by However, this still leaves US exporters at least a three year window, and this may be extended as the expansion project at Talara has yet to be formalised.

8 Venezuela: Since 2008 Venezuelan fuel oil exports have started to take off getting close to 10Mntonnes in It is perhaps the only South American country challenging the domination of US product exports into the region. Its refinery expansion programme is well advanced once again in contrast to its neighbours with 30Kbd coming on stream in 2015 and 140Kbd in Central America: (includes Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama and Nicaragua). The US has 50% market share, which means that there may be scope for increased US exports to the region just in terms of expanding market share. The UN forecasts a 37% population rise in Central America from 167Mn to 229Mn by 2050, which provides further encouragement that US exports to the region have significant growth potential.

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