Agriculture and Climate Change in China Role of improved Nitrogen fer7lizer management

Transcription

1 CLIMATE FRIENDLY PATHWAYS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES How do we mi)gate whilst also adap)ng and allevia)ng poverty? 20 th May 2014, EARLHAM HALL, UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA UK China Sustainable Agriculture Innova7on Network 中英可持续农业创新协作网 Agriculture and Climate Change in China Role of improved Nitrogen fer7lizer management Yuelai Lu Head of Secretariat, SAIN University of East Anglia

2 Agriculture and Climate Change in China Role of improved Nitrogenous fertilizer management Agriculture in China - Overview Agricultural Emission N fer7lizer Mi7ga7on Op7ons

3 UK China Sustainable Agriculture Innova7on Network 中英可持续农业创新协作网 Agriculture in China Big success at Big costs facing Big challenges having Global significance

4 Agriculture & Food Security in China Big Success Meat produc7on (pork, beef, mubon) (million ton) Grain produc7on (million ton)

5 Agriculture & Food Security in China Big Success Number of undernourished persons (millions) World China Developing countries Developed countries (source: FAO,2009)

6 Agriculture in China the costs Grain produc7on, synthe7c nitrogen fer7lizer inputs and cropped area

7 Agriculture in China the costs Pollutants from agricultural produc7on discharged into water systems COD 13.2 Mt 44% of na7on total Total N 2.7 Mt 57% of na7on total Total P 0.3 Mt 67% of na7on total from crop cul7va7on Total N 1.6 Mt 59% of agriculture Total P 0.1 Mt 38% of agriculture from livestock COD 12.9 Mt 96% of agriculture Total N 1.0 Mt 38% of agriculture Total P 0.2 Mt 56% of agriculture NaHonal polluhon survey, 2010

8 China's pig footprint

9 China s agricultural GHG emissions in 2005 China s agricultural GHG emissions in 2005 CO2 eq 820 Mt 11 % of na7onal total Nitrous oxide 94 (10 4 t) 74 Methane 2,517 (10 4 t) 57 2 nd nahonal communicahon report

10 China s agricultural GHG emissions in 2005 China s agricultural GHG emissions in t CO2 CH4 N2O Agricultural ac7vi7es 2, Enteric fermenta7on 1,438 Manure management Rice cul7va7on 793 Agricultural lands 67 2 nd nahonal communicahon report

11 China: agriculture s contribu7on to the economy and the environment Staple grai self- sufficiecy GDP Employment Total P in watre Total N in water COD in water N2O emission CH4 emission Damages from agriculture Benefits from agriculture 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

12 UK: agriculture s contribu7on to the economy and the environment Gross value added Employment Indigenous food production (by value) Area of land Water abstraction (ONS) Nitrate in rivers Phosphate in rivers Ammonia emissions Nitrous oxide emissions Methane emissions 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Damages from agriculture Benefits from agriculture Source: Collated by Defra

13 Agriculture & Food Security in China Global significance Food Trade: export and import (billion US$),

14 Agriculture in China the Challenges Meet food demand Grain 40 mt Meat 10 mt NDRC, 2008, Mid- long term food security plan

15 Agriculture in China the Challenges Change in Consump7on pabern 120 Per capita grain consump7on (kg/person) 100 Rice Wheat Other grains

16 Agriculture in China the Challenges Change in Consump7on pabern Per capita non- staple consumption (kg per year) Fruits Red meat and poultry Milk Fish Edible oil

17 Agriculture in China the Challenges Towards resource efficiency & climate smart By 2015, compared with 2010 Agricultural COD emissions reduced by 8% Ammonia nitrogen emission reduced by 10%; Fer7lizer use efficiency increased by 3% Over 50% of intensive livestock farm or livestock raising community equipped with waste treatment facili7es MoA, 12 th FYP

18 China fer7lizer consump7on and grain produc7on (1980=100)

19 Decline in NUE since 1980s

20 Fer7lizer N overshoot Fer7lizer N applied kg ha - 1 Op7mum for region Farmers average Excess % Rice (Taihu) Wheat (Taihu) Wheat (NCP) Maize (NCP) Ju et al (2009) PNAS 106,

21 LCA of GHG emissions from N fertilizer chain and emission factors Zhang W et al. PNAS 2013;110:

22 Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the N fertiliser chain in China Process GHG emission kg CO 2 - equivalent kg - 1 N Fossil fuel mining and transporta7on of raw 2.2 materials Ammonia synthesis 5.1 Conversion of ammonia to fer7liser products 0.9 Transporta7on and distribu7on of fer7liser 0.1 Emissions following applica7on to cropland 5.2 Total 13.5 Total annual emissions from China associated with N fer7liser manufacture and use (2010 data) 452 Mt CO 2 - equivalent

23 N fertilizer chain emission reduction scenarios Emission estimates for 2020 and 2030 consider four scenarios: Scenario 1, business-as-usual; Scenario 2, improved manufacturing technologies; Scenario 3, improved manufacturing technologies plus controlled N use; and Scenario 4, improved manufacturing technologies with reduced N use on croplands.

24 GHG emissions associated with the N fertilizer chain in China. Zhang W et al. PNAS 2013;110:

25 Options for decreasing GHG emissions connected with N fertilisers in China Fertiliser manufacture Phasing out small factories Upgrading technology in existing larger factories. Consider installation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the largest coal fired factories. Fertilizer management at farm level Adjusting N application rate to a realistic assessment of crop need Adopting sub-surface application of N fertiliser Alter the timing of N fertiliser application Use either slow release forms of N fertiliser or forms containing inhibitors of nitrification or urease activity in soil. Use nitrate-based fertilizer instead of urea where emission of N 2 O through nitrification in soil is significant Improve management of animal manures and other organic inputs. Adopt fertigation

26 Options for decreasing GHG emissions connected with N fertilizers in China Changes in government policies Subsidies affecting fertiliser manufacture and use Promote (large scale) Family Farms and full time farmers Promote the scheme of contractors in applying fertilizer Innovative communication of fertilizer management information to farmers

27 Agriculture and Climate Change in China Role of improved Nitrogenous fertilizer management Conclusion China s agricultural sustainability and food security have global significance N fertilizers are essential for China s (and the world s) agricultural production N fertilizers manufacturing and application also major source of GHG emission Improved N fertilizer manufacturing and application provides an chance to shift to a lower carbon economy A wide range of technological and management options available to cut GHG emission associated with N fertilizers Policy innovations essential to shift the current system

28 Agriculture and Climate Change in China Role of improved Nitrogenous fertilizer management References Improved Nutrient Management in Agriculture A Neglected Opportunity for China s Low Carbon Growth Path, SAIN Policy Brief No1, 2010, Greater food security and a be]er environment through improved nitrogen ferhlizer management, SAIN Policy Brief No2, 2010 Lu Y, Powlson D and Norse D, 2011, Sustaining China s Agriculture in a Changing Climate a MulHdisciplinary AcHon through UK - China CooperaHon. In: Wollenberg E, Nihart A, Tapio- Biström M- L, Grieg- Gran M (eds) Climate Change Mi)ga)on and Agriculture. London: Earthscan. Norse, D, Powlson D and Lu Y, Integrated Nutrient Management as a Key Contributor to China s Low Carbon Agriculture. In: Wollenberg E, (eds) Climate Change Mi)ga)on and Agriculture. London: Earthscan. Policies and technologies to overcome excessive and inefficient use of nitrogen ferhlizer: delivering mulhple benefits, SAIN Policy Brief No5, 2012 Zhang W, Dou Z, He P, Ju X, Powlson D, Chadwick D, Norse D, Lu Y, Zhang Y, Wu L, Chen X, Cassman K and Zhang F, 2013, New technologies reduce greenhouse gas emissions from nitrogenous fer)lizer in China. PNAS, 110 (21): Norse D, Lu Y, Huang J, 2014, China s food security: Is it a na)onal, regional or global issue? In: K Brown (ed.) China and the EU in Context, London: Palgrave.

29 Agriculture and Climate Change in China Role of improved Nitrogen fertilizer management Acknowledgement Colleagues: David Norse, David Powlson, David Chadwick, Fusuo Zhang, Weifeng Zhang, Jikun Huang, Xiangping Jia Funders: FCO, Defra, MoA For more informahon on SAIN: