Decoupling transport from GDP growth: a route to less transport intensive prosperity growth? Arno Schroten (CE Delft)

Transcription

1 Decoupling transport from GDP growth: a route to less transport intensive prosperity growth? Arno Schroten (CE Delft) 28 November 2011, Diamant Conference Center, Brussels

2 Background of the paper Europe 2020: realising a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth which would facilitate the transition to a green economy in the longer term Less transport-intensive growth of prosperity could contribute to this ambition Two approaches: Decoupling transport growth from GDP growth This presentation Alternative measures for prosperity growth Next presentation 2

3 Outline of the presentation Defining decoupling Trends of (de)coupling in the EU Drivers of decoupling freight transport Drivers of decoupling passenger transport Decoupling in the EU, US and Asia Policy implications Conclusions 3

4 Defining decoupling Decoupling indicator Strong vs. weak decoupling In our paper: decoupling tkm/pkm from GDP Data and measurement issues Limited data availability International transport often not included in statistics Reliable statistics from developing countries is missing 4

5 Trends of (de)coupling: freight transport 5

6 Trends of (de)coupling: passenger transport 6

7 Trends of (de)coupling: air transport 7

8 Drivers of decoupling freight transport Freight transport and GDP are related in two ways: Volume of freight transport affects GDP Level of GDP affects freight transport volume Three (possible) drivers of decoupling freight transport: Dematerialisation of the economy Reduction of spatial range of material flows Optimisation of transport organisation 8

9 Dematerialisation of the economy Economic restructuring Shift to a service-based economy Net impact on decoupling depends on size of leakage effect Reducing weight of transported goods Miniaturisation, replacing heavy materials by lighter ones and digitisation of products Some evidence for (small) contribution to decoupling Potential is difficult to estimate, but could be significant (ca. 15%) 9

10 Reduction of spatial range of material flows Reduction of the number of links in the supply chain Vertical integration Removing legislation encouraging transport Spatial structure of supply chain Labour cost differences may (partly) even out Increasing transport prices (e.g. oil prices) Impact on decoupling is not clear Positive effect of reduced transport demand could be undone by negative impact of decreasing GDP growth 10

11 Optimisation of transport organisation Use of computerised vehicle routing and scheduling software More efficient allocation of scarce road capacity Overall impact on decoupling is probably small 11

12 Conclusions decoupling freight transport Not much evidence supporting decoupling of freight transport and GDP growth in the near future Economic restructuring is often indicated as an important driver of decoupling, but from a global perspective these effects are (partly) undone by leakage effects On the longer term, there may be changes in the spatial structure of the economy, but impact on decoupling is unclear 12

13 Drivers of decoupling passenger transport Relationship between passenger transport and GDP is mainly one-way: GDP level affects passenger transport volume Four (possible) drivers of decoupling passenger transport A changing consumption pattern Digitisation Urban redensification Increased transport efficiency 13

14 A changing consumption pattern Evidence for car use saturation in daily travel But market share of aviation is rising Overall impact on decoupling is uncertain, but probably small 14

15 Digitisation Digitisation (e-commerce, teleworking, virtual meetings, etc.) may result in less transport However, rebound effects should be considered: Increase of freight kilometres (e-commerce) People travel more for other purposes, when less time and money is spend on shopping and commuter travel Digitisation may have a significant impact on decoupling 15

16 Urban redensification Increased density of cities may reduce car dependency and hence car use Potential is unclear, rough estimate: 5% GHG reduction 16

17 Increased transport efficiency Increase in efficiency of vehicle routing (e.g. by using GPS) Overall impact on decoupling is expected to be small 17

18 Conclusions decoupling passenger transport Decoupling of car use and GDP growth may take place But, this effect is (partly) undone by increase in air transport 18

19 Decoupling in the EU, US and Asia (1) 19

20 Decoupling in the EU, US and Asia (2) Some important factors explaining the differences between countries/continents: Geography Urban planning Lack of alternatives to the car Large supply of road transport infrastructure Fuel prices Transport taxes Culture 20

21 Decoupling in the EU, US and Asia (3) 21

22 Policy implications Policy intervention on passenger transport probably more effective to realise decoupling Some policy instruments that could be considered: Economic instruments: internalisation of external costs Spatial planning policy Speed limits Macro-economic policies 22

23 Conclusions Theoretically, there is a large potential for less transport-intensive GDP growth, particularly in case of passenger transport However, this potential has hardly been realised over the last decade Freight transport: evidence for coupling instead of decoupling Passenger transport: evidence for decoupling of land-based transport, but this effect is (partly) undone by coupling of aviation and GDP growth Without additional policies, a significant decoupling is not likely for the near future Policy instruments that could be used to stimulate decoupling: Economic instruments: internalisation of external costs Spatial planning policy Speed limits 23

24 Discussion Any questions or comments? 24