Stock Market Performance and the Summer Olympics

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1 Andrew Birstingl, Research Analyst MARKET INSIGHT Media Questions/Requests July28, 2016 Stock Market Performance and the Summer Olympics Overview The 2016 Summer Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, are just over a week away. The Olympics give athletes from all across the world the opportunity to represent their countries and gain global recognition in their respective sports. From another perspective, the event may also serve as a potential investment opportunity for investors. This Market Insight report will analyze the historical performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, local indices of the host countries, and publicly-traded sponsors in an effort to identify trading patterns during and after previous Summer Olympic Games. Summer Olympics Host Year DJIA %Chg from Start to End of Olympics DJIA 1-Yr %Chg after Olympics Paris, France % 5.8% St. Louis, United States % 23.0% London, United Kingdom % 19.4% Stockholm, Sweden % (13.0%) Antwerp, Belgium 1920 (11.6%) (19.7%) Paris, France % 37.0% Amsterdam, Netherlands 1928 (0.3%) 63.4% Los Angeles, United States % 53.0% Berlin, Germany % 14.2% London, United Kingdom 1948 (2.1%) (0.2%) Helsinki, Finland % (1.3%) Melbourne, Australia % (9.6%) Rome, Italy 1960 (3.6%) 16.3% Tokyo, Japan 1964 (0.1%) 8.5% Mexico City, Mexico % (10.5%) Munich, West Germany % (7.3%) Montreal, Canada 1976 (0.9%) (9.4%) Moscow, Soviet Union % 1.6% Los Angeles, United States % 7.9% Seoul, South Korea % 28.4% Barcelona, Spain % 7.3% Atlanta, United States % 44.3% Sydney, Australia 2000 (2.5%) (17.0%) Athens, Greece % 2.6% Beijing, China 2008 (0.9%) (18.2%) London, United Kingdom % 16.7% To receive this report via , please go to: To view other market stories with FactSet content, please go to: All data published in this report is available on FactSet. Please contact media_request@factset.com or FACTSET for more information. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 1

2 Dow Gains in Value during 69% of Summer Olympic Games Dow Averages 1.8% Gain during Two-Week Summer Olympic Period Looking back at each Summer Olympics since the games in 1900 in Paris, France, 69% (18 out of 26) of the events saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average gain in value from the start of the games through the end of the games. The average gain for the Dow was 3.9%. The biggest move from the Dow came during the St. Louis Olympics Games in 1904, when the index climbed 41.7% from 7/1/1904 to 11/23/1904. The second largest move occurred during the London Games in 1908, when the Dow jumped 18.8% over a six month period. Keep in mind that the duration of the early Summer Olympic Games in Paris (1900), St. Louis, London, Antwerp, and Paris (1924) extended well over the traditional two-week period. Excluding these events, 67% (14 out of the 21) of the games saw the Dow gain in value over the two weeks. The average increase for the Dow Jones Industrial Average for these 21 events was 1.8%. The Dow saw the largest gains for the games that were based in Los Angeles. During the Olympics in Los Angeles in 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 17.1%. During the Los Angeles games in 1984, the index jumped 9.3%. Performance of Local Index of Host Country Performance of Host Country s Index during Summer Olympics Matches that of World Benchmark Investors also tend to keep a close eye on the performance of the major index in the host country during and after the games. Looking back at the each of the last eight Summer Olympics (starting with the Los Angeles Games in 1984), the local index of the host country increased in value 75% (6 out of 8) of the time through the two-week period. The only declines came from the 2000 Sydney Games, when the S&P ASX 200 lost 0.9% in value during the event, and the 2008 Beijing Games, when the SSE Composite fell 7.7% in value. The biggest positive mover came during the Los Angeles Games in 1984, when the Dow gained 9.3%. The average percentage change of the local index from the start of the event to the end of the event was 1.8%. This gain matched the average percentage change of the MSCI World Index during the same eight Summer Olympics and across the identical time frame. Therefore, investing in the local index at the start of the Summer Olympics, and selling immediately after its completion hasn t been a viable way to outperform the benchmark during recent Olympic Games. 12.0% Performance of Local Index of Host Country: Duration of Summer Olympics 1 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% (2.0%) Los Angeles 1984 Seoul 1988 Barcelona 1992 Atlanta 1996 Sydney 2000 Athens 2004 Beijing 2008 London 2012 (4.0%) (6.0%) (8.0%) (1) Local Index: %Chg from Start to End of Olympics MSCI World Index: %Chg from Start to End of Olympics Local Index: Avg %Chg from Start to End of Olympics (Same for Local Index and MSCI World Index FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 2

3 Index of Host Country Outperforms Benchmark 1-Year after Summer Olympics Investing in the local index of the host country after the conclusion of the games seems to be a better investment strategy, based on recent history. Looking back at each of the past eight Summer Olympics, the average percentage change of the local index one year after the closing ceremony was 23.8%, compared to the 10.7% change of the MSCI World Index. Six out of the eight local indices outperformed the MSCI World Index a year after the closing ceremony. The exceptions were the Dow in the 1984 Los Angeles Games and the FTSE 100 in the 2012 London Games. The top performer relative to the MSCI World Index was the SSE Composite in the 2008 Beijing Games. This index increased 24.5% a year after the event was finished, while the World index declined 18.5% (+43 percentage point difference). 5 Performance of Local Index of Host Country: 1 Year after Summer Olympics (1) Los Angeles 1984 Seoul 1988 Barcelona 1992 Atlanta 1996 Sydney 2000 Athens 2004 Beijing 2008 London 2012 (2) (3) (4) Local Index: %Chg 1-Yr after Olympics MSCI World Index: %Chg 1-Yr after Olympics Local Index: 1-Yr Avg %Chg MSCI World Index: 1-Yr Avg %Chg Stock Performance of Worldwide Summer Olympic Partners Samsung, McDonald s, and Panasonic Beat Benchmark 1-Yr after Olympics; Coca-Cola Lags Since the 2000 Summer Olympic Games in Sydney, four public companies have been consistent worldwide partners of the games. These companies are Coca-Cola, McDonald s, Panasonic, and Samsung. In the past four Summer Olympics, the stocks of each of these sponsors outperformed the MSCI World Index during the two-week duration of the games. Panasonic Corporation was the best performer, as the company s stock beat the benchmark by 2.8 percentage points. When analyzing the performance of these worldwide partners one year after the games finished, three out of the four stocks outperformed the MSCI World Index. Coca-Cola was the lone underperformer, as the beverage manufacturer declined 6.7% on average a year following the completion of the past four Summer Olympics, while the MSCI World Index lost only 3.1% in value on average (difference of 3.6 percentage points). Samsung Electronics was the best performer a year after the event. The stock of the electronics manufacturer beat the benchmark by 7.9 percentage points on average. FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 3

4 Percentage Points above/below MSCI World Index MARKET INSIGHT July 28, % Relative Performance of Worldwide Olympic Partners vs MSCI World Index 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% (1.0%) Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. McDonald's Corporation Panasonic Corporation Coca-Cola Company (2.0%) (3.0%) (4.0%) (5.0%) Avg %Chg from Start to End of Olympics vs MSCI World Index 1-Yr Avg %Chg after Olympics vs MSCI World Index FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 4

5 Additional Notes: The local index for each host country used for this analysis is show below United States: Dow Jones Industrial Average South Korea: KOSPI Composite Index Spain: Spain IBEX 35 Australia: S&P ASX 200 Greece: Greece ATHEX Composite United Kingdom: FTSE 100 Important Notice The information contained in this report is provided as is and all representations, warranties, terms and conditions, oral or written, express or implied (by common law, statute or otherwise), in relation to the information are hereby excluded and disclaimed to the fullest extent permitted by law. In particular, FactSet, its affiliates and its suppliers disclaim implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose and make no warranty of accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. This report is for informational purposes and does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned within it. The information in this report is not investment advice. FactSet, its affiliates and its suppliers assume no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this report. About FactSet FactSet is a leading provider of integrated financial information and analytical applications. More than 63,000 users stay ahead of global market trends, access extensive company and industry intelligence, and monitor performance with FactSet s desktop analytics, mobile applications, and comprehensive data feeds. The Company has been included in FORTUNE's Top 100 Best Companies to Work For, the United Kingdom s Great Places to Work and France s Best Workplaces. FactSet is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ (NYSE:FDS) (NASDAQ:FDS). Learn more at and follow us on Twitter: FactSet.com Copyright 2016 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All rights reserved. 5

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