Freight Transport Scenarios of South Asia and Findings from Model Analysis

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1 Freight Transport Scenarios of South Asia and Findings from Model Analysis Colombo International Container Terminal Ryuichi Shibasaki, Dr. Eng. Head of International Cooperation Division, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

2 1. MODEL

3 Karachi Port Bin Qasim Mundra Pipavav Kandla Hazira Mumbai JNPT Mormugao New Mangalore Cochin Kolkata Mongla Haldia Chittagong Visakhapatnam Krishnapatnam (Kattupalli) Chennai Tuticorin Colombo

4 Model Accuracy (1) Maritime Shipping Submodel Transhipped containers* at major hub ports (2013) (a) Transhipment rate (b) Transhipment throughput Model estimated 100% 80% 60% R² = Valencia (Spain) Colon/Manzanillo (Panama) Singapore Colombo N = 34 Marsaxlokk (Malta) Pireus (Greece) Model estimated million TEU R² = N = 34 Singapore Rotterdam 40% (Netherland) Shenzhen (two terminals) 20% Qingdao (China) Dubai (UAE) Ambarli (Turkey) 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Actual Lianyunggang (China) 10 Algeciras (Spain) 5 Colombo 0 Colon/ Manzanillo (Panama) Hong Kong Busan Tanjung Pelepas (Malaysia) Port klang (Malaysia) Dubai (UAE) Marsaxlokk (Malta) Actual million TEU *excluding empty containers

5 Model Accuracy (2) Intermodal Network Model Export/Import containers* at South Asian ports (2013) Model estimated million TEU 1.2 Export Model estimated million TEU 1.0 Import 1.0 R² = Chittagong Bin Qasim 0.4 Mundra Kolkata Karachi Tuticorin Chennai 0.2Vizag Colombo Haldia Pipavav JNPT 0.0 Cochin Actual million TEU Kolkata 0.2 Vizag Hazira Mongla Karachi Chennai Pipavav Mundra R² = Tuticorin Actual JNPT Chittagong Colombo Bin Qasim Cochin million TEU *excluding empty containers

6 (TEU) Estimated Land Container Flow (2013)

7

8 Container flow (TEU, 2013)

9 2. FUTURE SCENARIO Assuming future transport network in the Region Container Scenario on transport network affects selection of port. International Shipping Network Capacity, size, and efficiency of ports Accessibility of mainline ships Inland Logistics Network Road, rail, and inland waterway development in each country Non Container Selection of port simply depends on locations of production and consumption. 10

10 1. Economic Scenarios Normal Case (2030OD) x1.85 of 2013OD (in world total) High Case (2030HighOD) x Low Case (2030LowOD) x Maritime Shipping Network Scenarios (based on OD) 2 1. Vessel enlargement as needed Scenario 2 2. Vessel enlargement until 20,000 TEU Scenario 2 3. Increasing service frequency as needed Scenario *Port infrastructure as well as hinterland infrastructure is assumed to be sufficiently improved in all ports ( with case )

11 3. Port Investment Scenarios 3 0. With Scenario (all port related projects in South Asia will be assumingly completed until 2030) 3 1. Without investment in individual port Scenario 3 1 a. JNPT, Additional increasing in level of service in Colombo Port Scenario 3 2 a. transshipment handling time to be half 3 2 b. transshipment handling time to be 1/ New construction of hub port in South India Scenario

12 4. Hinterland Investment Scenarios 4 0. With Scenario (all following projects will be assumingly completed until 2030) Without Scenario for each project 4 1. DFC Scenario 4 2. Ferry & Rail Connection between South India and Sri Lanka Scenario 4 3. Multimodal hinterland network in Bangladesh Scenario 4 4. CAREC Gateway in Pakistani Ports Scenario 4 5. Chennai Bangalore Industrial Corridor Scenario

13 4 1. DFC Scenario Capacity expansion by introducing double stacked train (from 90 TEU/train to 360 TEU/train) Speed up Increasing frequency Reducing handling time at station Reducing operation cost 14

14 4 2. Ferry & Rail Connection between South India and Sri Lanka Scenario Connection of Palk Strait 1. Re opening for ferry bet. Tuticorin and Colombo 2. Adam s Bridge (New rail service) 3. National Border bet. India/Sri Lanka decreasing border crossing time and cost by half 15

15 4 3. Multimodal hinterland network in Bangladesh Scenario Between Dhaka and Chittagong Road: increasing truck speed Rail: increasing frequency and speed Inland waterway: increasing frequency Around Mongla Port Road: capacity expansion Rail: new construction to Mongla Port Connection with Northeast India Rail: new construction and improvement Assam Mongla 16

16 4 4. CAREC Gateway in Pakistani Ports Scenario Following two category of cargos are assumed to be handled at various ports in Pakistan. 1) Cargos arriving at and/or departing from Pakistan 2) Cargos passing through Pakistan, to arrive/depart from Afghanistan, Central Asia, and inland China. Improvement in seaport (Karachi, Bin Qasim) access (railway and road) 1) Improvement of land transport infrastructure required to access ports in of Pakistan 2) Development of roads and railways in Pakistan Planned route for a new access railway to Bin Qasim (reference) Balochistan roads project (reference) Development of Gwadar Port and its access will proceed. 17

17 SCENARIO SETTING [1]: Shipping Demand Change Scenario OD 2. Maritime Shipping Network all over the world Base 1 1 (Normal) 2 1 Vessel enlargement as needed Scenario 3. Port projects in South Asia 3 0 With Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed) High OD 1 2 (High) Low OD 1 3 (Low) Hinterland Shipping Network in South Asia 4 0 With Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed)

18 Assumed growth rate of container shipping demand in 2030 (from 2013) State Growth rate (export/import containers) 1 1 Base 1 2 High 1 3 Low India Andhra Pradesh Arunachal Pradesh Assam Bihar Goa Gujarat Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala Madhya Pradesh Chhattisgarh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura Uttar Pradesh Uttaranchal West Bengal Andaman and Nicobar Chandigarh Delhi Pondicherry Country Growth rate (export/import containers) 1 1 Base 1 2 High 1 3 Low Bangladesh India Pakistan Sri Lanka Japan China (including Hong Kong) Korea ASEAN Oceania North America Europe Middle East Africa Others South Asia Ave World Ave Source: JICA team (GDP growth rate)

19 Estimated Amount of Containers in (mil. TEU) 2013 Actual 2013 Model Estimated 2030 Low OD 2030 Base 2030 High OD Export (mil. TEU) Import 2013 Actual 2013 Model Estimated 2030 Low OD 2030 Base 2030 High OD *excluding empty containers

20 Estimated Amount of Containers in 2030 [2] (mil. TEU) Actual 2013 Model Estimated 2030 Low OD 2030 Base 2030 High OD Transshipment *excluding empty containers

21 Estimated growth rate of containers handled in each port Export Import port 2030 Low OD 2030 Base 2030 High OD 2030 Low OD 2030 Base 2030 High OD Chittagong Mongla Kolkata Haldia Visakhapatnam Krishnapatnam Chennai Tuticorin Cochin New Manglore Mormugao JNPT Hazira Pipavav Kandla Mundra Colombo Total (Average) Colombo (transshipment)

22 (TEU) Estimated Land Container Flow (2030, Base Case)

23 SCENARIO SETTING [2]: Deeper Berths Construction Scenario OD Base 1 1 (Normal) Chittagong deeper berth Mongla deeper berth Kolkata/ Haldia deeper berth 2. Maritime Shipping Network all over the world 2 1 Vessel enlargement as needed Scenario (i.e. each vessel will enlarge by 1.85 times as the current size) 3. Port projects in South Asia 3 0 With all port related projects Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed) a Without any deeper berths in Chittagong port projects Scenario* b Without any deeper berths in Mongla port projects Scenario c Without any deeper berths both in Kolkata/Haldia port projects Scenario 4. Hinterland Shipping Network in South Asia 4 0 With Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed) *any vessels larger than the maximum size that vessels can call at are assumed to skip the port in question

24 Current Status and Settings in each port Port Max draft in container berths Current maximum vessel size estimated from the draft (TEU) Maximum vessel size which actually calls at (June 2013) No. of liner service (June 2013) No. of liner service assumed in the without case in 2030* Chittagong Mongla Kolkata Haldia Visakhapatnam Khrishnapatnam Chennai Tuticorin Cochin JNPT Hazira NA Pipavav Mundra Colombo *each vessel is assumed to enlarge by 1.85 times as the current size

25 Estimated Amount of Containers in 2030 (mil. TEU) 6 without any deeper berths 5 (in each port) (S3 1) with all port related projects 4 (Base Scenario)

26 SCENARIO SETTING [3]: Hub Port(s) in South Asia Scenario OD Base 1 1 (Normal) Colombo improvem ent New hub in South India 2. Maritime Shipping Network all over the world 2 1 Vessel enlargement as needed Scenario 3. Port projects in South Asia 4. Hinterland Shipping Network in South Asia 3 0 With all port related projects Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed) a Additional increasing in level of service in Colombo Port Scenario (Transshipment handling time to be half) b Additional increasing in level of service in Colombo Port Scenario (Transshipment handling time to be 1/4) New construction of hub port in South India Scenario 4 0 With Scenario (all related projects are assumingly completed)

27 3 2. Improvement of level of service in Colombo Changes of transshipped containers handled in Colombo and neighbor major hub ports by reducing handling time in Colombo Port Increased transshipped containers (in 2030, mil. TEU) % 30.2% handling time to be 1/2 (or equivalent charge reduction) in Colombo Port handling time to be 1/4 (or equivalent charge reduction) in Colombo Port 1.1% 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% Colombo Southeast Asia Hub* Middle East Hub** *Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, Klang **Dubai, Khor Fakkan, Salalah

28 SAMMARY Intermodal international container shipping model including both worldwide maritime network and South Asian hinterland network amount of export, import and transshipped containers estimated by port agree with those actually recorded in 2013 Future forecast using the developed model by several scenarios container shipping demand in 2030 (normal, high, and low) deeper berths construction in each South Asian port improvement of level of service in hub port (Colombo) and new construction in South India improvement of hinterland transport network including rail, inland water and road (e.g. DFC, ferry and rail service between India and Sri Lanka, Bangladesh hinterland network, Pakistani rail network) capacity expansion of maritime shipping network (vessel enlargement or increasing frequency)

29 Thank you for your kind attention! Karachi Port Trust

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