STUDY OF U.S. PORT NEEDS AND FREIGHT CORRIDOR SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE PANAMA CANAL
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1 July 23, 2010 STUDY OF U.S. PORT NEEDS AND FREIGHT CORRIDOR SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE PANAMA CANAL SOLICITATION FOR PROPOSALS JULY 2010
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. PURPOSE/STATEMENT OF NEED... 1 II. BACKGROUND... 1 III. INTRODUCTION... 1 IV. STATEMENT OF WORK... 4 V. SOLICITATION RESPONSE REQUIREMENTS AND EVALUATION CRITERIA... 9 VI. SOLICITATION SCHEDULE, REQUIREMENTS AND PAYMENT PROCEDURES i-
3 I. PURPOSE/STATEMENT OF NEED DRAFT July 23, 2010 Numerous studies have provided an examination of anticipated impacts from the pending Panama Canal expansion on U.S. ports and port-related freight transportation infrastructure. Few studies, however, have addressed these impacts comprehensively with regard to future U.S. and global economic developments affecting trade and their impact on this Nation s ports, waterways, and intermodal freight systems. This solicitation provides a brief overview of a proposed study which will examine the full range of these impacts and develop policy options to realize the greatest benefits from the Panama Canal expansion for the nation. The study will take into account all ports and port-related freight transportation infrastructure within the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and the unincorporated territories of the U.S. (American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands). The period of interest for the study will be current trading practices and port and freight corridor activity at points 5, 10, 20, and 30 years into the future. II. BACKGROUND By 2014, the Panama Canal will have greatly increased capacity, as measured by the number of transits through the Canal (from approximately 13,000 ship transits today to as many as 17,000 transits annually once the expansion is operational) and increase in the size of ships capable of passing through the Canal (from the current maximum ship size of about 5,000 TEU 1 to ships as large as 13,000 TEU capacity). Global construction and utilization of Post-Panamax containership vessels has rapidly increased. During the past six years, Post-Panamax containership calls on U.S. ports increased by over 270 percent. By 2012, the world s Post-Panamax containership fleet capacity will increase by nearly 80 percent, as more than 400 new Post-Panamax vessels enter service. The expanded Panama Canal will both facilitate and require the integration of these Post-Panamax vessels into the United States major blue-water trade lanes, with substantial implications for the Nation s shippers, ports, and surface freight corridors (road, rail, and water). III. INTRODUCTION Several ongoing or pending developments in transportation are likely to result in considerable and relatively rapid shifts in global freight corridors. These shifts, in turn, will affect the U.S. Marine Transportation System (MTS), specifically ports and 1 TEU Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit. -1-
4 intermodal surface freight corridors. Major worldwide developments affecting ocean shipping include: Completion of the Panama Canal expansion in 2014 (the principal focus of this study); Ongoing containership fleet transition to larger, deeper Post-Panamax vessels; Changing utilization of the Suez Canal in East-West trades by Post-Panamax vessels; and Shifts in global and national manufacturing and distribution centers along East- West trade routes that impact the direction of global freight movements. In addition, a broad range of macroeconomic and demographic factors will also influence future international trade flows. These factors include: Composition and capacity of the ocean liner fleet serving the U.S. and global shipping needs; Chang es in U.S. trade balance with its major trading partners, especially as it relates to shipping capacity needs; U.S. economic recovery/renewal of consumption patterns; Changes in national consumption patterns due to changes in U.S. population demographics and distribution; International economic factors; e.g., expansion of the Asian economies, potential Chinese currency revaluation, recent devaluation of euro, potential increases in consumption in Emerging Market nations; Growth in U.S. trade with developed Asian and European Markets; and Growth in U.S. trade with Emerging Markets (Latin America, Pacific Rim, Africa). Finally, there are a host of logistical, operational, policy and environmental issues that will influence shipping through the Panama Canal and within the U.S. These issues include: Panama Canal tolls; U.S. intermodal rail capacity and rates; U.S. port user fees; U.S. port productivity; Key U.S. land corridor bottlenecks; Fuel prices and clean fuel standards; Slow steaming by containership lines as a means of conserving fuel and absorbing excess containership capacity; Transshipment of U.S. exports and imports through non-conus ports; Equipment issues e.g. availability of containers and chassis for U.S. exporters; -2-
5 Environmental Issues e.g. clean truck requirements, cold ironing, foreign 2 and domestic environmental policies, etc.; and Opening of Arctic trade routes due to the melting of Arctic sea ice. These developments are unfolding rapidly and are highly interactive with each other. The completion of the Panama Canal expansion in 2014 will be the most important catalyst for change, but in anticipation of this and due to the efficiencies of shipping large volumes of containers over long ocean routes, Post-Panamax ships are already being introduced in large numbers. Shifts in containership services for U.S. exporters and importers will likely take place concurrently with shifts and expansions of surface freight corridors within the U.S. The vigor of the economic recovery in the economies of the U.S. and its trading partners will, of course, affect all trade flows. At the same time, the ability of U.S. port, rail, water, and highway infrastructure to accommodate corridor shifts has not been determined. Installing the new or expanded infrastructure needed to accommodate Post-Panamax vessels will be difficult without sufficient advance notice, in large part because environmental and planning reviews necessary to add infrastructure can take a decade or longer. The MTS reflects a mix of public and private investment. On the water side, public funding is invested in maintaining and improving the channels into ports as well as intracoastal and inland waterways. Public funding is also used for constructing highway connections on the landside. Private investment funds deepwater, coastal, and inland vessels; port terminals and equipment; and much of the rail infrastructure that services the ports. If these investments are coordinated to meet national needs for efficient and environmentally-sustainable freight movement, the return on each invested dollar can be maximized. The major investments of public and private funds that will be needed to improve port sector infrastructure should be supported by a reasonable expectation that the costs of the investments will be covered by their benefits to the nation. For this reason, it is important to understand that some proposed investments to accommodate the largest Post-Panamax vessels may not be economically justified from the standpoint of investing public funds. Historical freight and transportation data can be helpful in informing infrastructure investments, but in a rapidly changing trade environment, such data cannot be relied upon fully. The changes resulting from the factors discussed in this report must be interpreted using a comprehensive analysis (including through modeling) that will inform decision-makers as they consider the future of freight transportation. 2 For instance, Europe is strongly considering a carbon tax on ships calling at European ports. This policy could impact the movement of containers, particularly through the reduction of transshipment through Europe. -3-
6 IV. STATEMENT OF WORK DRAFT July 23, 2010 PHASE 1 Identify and explain the pending developments in world ocean trade routes and national and global economies that are likely to affect global and U.S. domestic freight corridors. Work should be organized in the following format: A. I dentify and describe the outlook for the worldwide ocean shipping developments, macroeconomic and demographic factors, and logistical, operational, and policy issues described in the Introduction Section (III) of this Statement of Work. At a minimum, the analysis should address each of the items cited above in the Introduction; other relevant factors identified by the contractor should be included as well. The discussion in the Phase 1 report should provide a basis for future conclusions about the impact of these factors (individually and in relationship to each other). B. Quantify the likely impacts of the above factors on shifts in U.S. exports and imports through the Panama Canal and along other major trade routes (ocean and land bridge, including potential future Arctic sea routes) competing with or affected by the Panama Canal expansion. 1. Provide estimates of traffic through the Panama Canal through the 30 year scope of this study, allocated where possible to major regional origin and destination points. 2. Provide estimates of traffic along major ocean and land bridge routes not transiting the Panama Canal. 3. Predict changes in aggregate container shipping, breakbulk, and bulk shipping capacity as it affects the following: larger ships transiting the Panama Canal; changing frequency of ship transits; changes in ocean shipping networks and services; changes in the composition of the global blue-water shipping fleet; increasing size and availability of Post-Panamax vessels for utilization in East- West trades; the deployment/redeployment of existing Panamax vessels (smaller than 5000 TEU) into the North-South trades; 3 changes in U.S. trade position (head-haul vs. back-haul) vis-à-vis major trading partners or regions; and other measures deemed appropriate by the contractor. 4. Project changes in volume and composition of cargo moved via containerships, breakbulk ships, and bulk ships as the average size of containerships increases (e.g., potential shifting of higher value bulk cargoes to containers). C. Determine the U.S. coastal areas (e.g., Middle Atlantic East Coast) that would see the greatest increase in ocean shipping due to the Panama Canal expansion and associated world trade trends. A service composed of Post-Panamax vessels will be 3 The North-South trades such as U.S.-South America, U.S.-Oceania, and U.S.-Africa traditionally experience less capacity demand than the major East-West trades (U.S.-Asia and U.S.-Europe). While the North-South trades do not currently have sufficient cargo demand to support the use of Post-Panamax vessels, these trades will likely experience increases in capacity as their current smaller vessels are replaced by Panamax vessels (5000 TEU or smaller) that are redeployed from East-West trades. -4-
7 most profitable when the vessels are utilized at near-full capacity (80 percent or higher) and over long ocean distances. Those two factors, sufficient demand for shipping services and sufficient distance between the major waterborne trading markets, are not controlled by ports but reflect technological, geographic, demographic, and economic factors, and are reflected in the decisions of individual shippers throughout the United States and abroad. For instance, the study may find that the expansion of the Panama Canal will increase the profitability of deploying all-water container services between Asia eastbound to the U.S. East Coast. 1. Changes in the composition of the global blue-water shipping fleet; and 2. U.S. trade position (head-haul vs. back-haul) vis-à-vis major trading partners or regions. PHASE 2 Determine the physical and market attributes that U.S. ports will need to serve as gateways for Post-Panamax vessels. Focus the analysis on those ports that are likely to handle more than 100,000 TEU/year at some point during the analysis period of this study. A. Identify and describe the capabilities of U.S. ports to accommodate changes in traffic from factors listed above. Public and private sector infrastructure investments in ports cannot change the market forces that influence the deployment of Post-Panamax vessels to trade routes or coastal areas. Such infrastructure investments can, however, facilitate the ability of ports and port-related infrastructure to handle the Post-Panamax vessels when the use of those vessels makes business and economic sense. In terms of this infrastructure, three key factors will influence the future of ports on the U.S. East coast (e.g., New England, Middle Atlantic, Southeastern, including Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands); Gulf coast (e.g., Eastern and Western); and Pacific coast (e.g., Northwest and Southwest, including Hawaii, Alaska, American Samoa, Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands, and Guam) to handle larger ships and greater freight volumes. These three key factors are: harbor channel access, 4 port and terminal capacity, 5 and intermodal rail corridors capable of accommodating increased long-haul container transportation. 6 4 At present, the majority of the U.S. East and Gulf coast ports can accommodate the current fleet of Panamax vessels (requiring an approximate 39 feet of draft). The Canal expansion will enable larger (Post-Panamax) vessels to also service these ports. Port access, however, will be determined by channel depth on a case-by-case basis or in some cases by bridge clearances (air draft). These larger Post-Panamax vessels are broken into two general categories: 6,000-8,000 TEU and 8,000-13,000 TEU. Container ships from 6,000 to 8,000 TEU require channel depths of approximately 45 feet, while the 13,000 TEU ships will need 50 feet of depth and greater for safe navigation. 5 For the purposes of this study, terminal capacity is assessed as to the type of container cranes currently in service at each port facility, number of berths, and adjacent storage areas. 6 While most container ports will almost certainly continue to serve existing local consumer/producer markets, it is likely that a reliable and efficient intermodal rail link to new markets will be essential to establishing a competitive route for expanded business. This will require on or near-dock rail and relatively high speed, double-stack routes to the inland markets. -5-
8 1. Describe channel depths; port crane, berths, and storage facilities; and intermodal connections for all U.S. ports with the potential to handle large containerships. 2. Identify the maximum port and port terminal capacity at major U.S. ports. 3. Outline capital investment strategies that ocean carriers, U.S. ports, and marine terminal operators are taking to adapt to potential trade lane and volume changes. 4. Identify decision-making processes used by individual major ports to address future expansion. 5. Identify the capacity of land corridors supporting ports and other landside limiting factors. 6. Determine the adequacy of individual U.S. port investment strategies to meet regional and national needs in response to Panama Canal expansion. B. Determine the importance of a port s access to local or nearby freight markets in its ability to attract Post-Panamax containerships. 1. Calculate the advantage in attracting Post-Panamax containerships to a port caused by a large local "captive" market for container exports and imports. Determine if the local cargo attraction compensates the ship operators for other limitations in port infrastructure (and the associated costs), and if it does, quantify the importance of that compensation. 2. Explain how Post-Panamax containership calls can be scheduled or operated to work around limitations in port infrastructure. 3. Determine the potential to reroute discretionary (non-captive) 7 cargoes to ports where Post-Panamax operations are initiated; e.g., changes in the way that discretionary cargo is routed in the Transpacific (Asia-U.S. East Coast versus Asia-U.S. West Coast) and Transatlantic (Europe-U.S. West Coast versus Europe- U.S. East Coast) trades. PHASE 3 Identify opportunities for the U.S. Federal Government to leverage shifts in port use and surface freight corridors to improve U.S. economic competitiveness, environmental sustainability, transportation safety, and other U.S. DOT strategic goals. A. Identify key U.S. industries that would benefit from projected changes in surface freight routes and trade patterns. 1. Describe how changing trade and surface freight patterns associated with the Panama Canal expansion and subsequent U.S. port and port-related infrastructure investment would affect U.S. exporters and importers. 2. Describe and measure the benefits/disbenefits to U.S. domestic industries adjacent to new or expanded surface freight corridors. 7 Discretionary cargo is intermodal cargo destined for inland U.S. points. This type of cargo is not captive to any one port and it can represent 50 percent or more of the cargo moving through a particular port at any given time. -6-
9 3. Describe if some freight corridors hold potentially substantial benefits for domestic industries and exporters that would not be realized if governmental action is not taken. B. Identify environmental and safety benefits or costs associated with shifts in ports and freight corridors. 1. Describe how changing trade and surface freight patterns associated with the Panama Canal expansion and subsequent U.S. port and port-related infrastructure investment would affect U.S. transportation energy consumption, emissions, noise, and safety. 2. Describe if some corridors have disproportionate benefits for reducing fuel consumption, emissions, noise, and fatalities and injuries that would not be realized if governmental action is not taken. C. Identify Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications that would improve the efficiency of international supply chains connecting to ports such as real-time in-transit visibility and automated dispatch capabilities for onward freight movements. Such applications may include carrier operational systems that add value or reduce cost through information technology. 1. Explain the benefits of implementing such systems. 2. Explain the need, if any, for U.S. governmental support to realize the benefits of such systems. D. Identify other areas where U.S. governmental participation or investments in U.S. ports and port-related infrastructure improvements would serve to enable the most efficient and sustainable national freight delivery system 1. Explain any benefits of U.S. governmental participation in maintaining a state of good repair for ports and port-related infrastructure particularly infrastructure in which the U.S. government has not invested in previously that would not otherwise be realized through local government or private investment. 2. Identify quality of life and livability factors that would be enhanced by governmental actions. 3. Determine the potential for under- or over-investment in U.S. port and portrelated infrastructure without Federal coordination. E. Based on the preceding components of Phase 3, identify the optimal level of direct U.S. government investment in port and port-related infrastructure (i.e. the level of investment that would maximize the United States net benefits from the Panama Canal expansion). PHASE 4 Develop a range of policy recommendations (with pros and cons) that would enable public sector decision-makers to accommodate the outcomes of optimal freight corridor shifts. These should be aimed at enhancing U.S. economic and export competitiveness, maximizing the efficiency of past, current, and future public and private sector infrastructure investments, improving environmental sustainability of the freight transportation system, improving transportations safety, and enhancing the quality of life in communities. Recommendations should be specific and actionable. -7-
10 V. SOLICITATION DELIVERABLES The Maritime Administration (MARAD) requires that all phases of this study be completed within one year of the contract award date. Each phase will be completed in sequence, with a report to be delivered to the Contracting Office at the completion of each phase. Deliverables include the following: A. Proposed time line for completion of each Phase and sub-phase of this Solicitation (due two weeks after contract award). B. Phase 1 report 1. Draft report to MARAD (due three months after contract award) 2. Final report incorporating responses to MARAD comments (due four months after contract award) C. Phase 2 report 1. Draft report to MARAD (due six months after contract award) 2. Final report incorporating responses to MARAD comments (due seven months after contract award) D. Phase 3 report 1. Draft report to MARAD (due eight months after contract award) 2. Final report incorporating responses to MARAD comments (due nine months after contract award) E. Phase 4 report 1. Draft report to MARAD (due ten months after contract award) 2. Final report incorporating responses to MARAD comments (due eleven months after contract award) F. Executive Summary 1. Draft report to MARAD (due ten months after contract award) 2. Final report incorporating responses to MARAD comments (due twelve months after contract award) G. Monthly Progress Reports H. Periodic Meetings to Discuss Phase Deliverables -8-
11 V. SOLICITATION RESPONSE REQUIREMENTS AND EVALUATION CRITERIA MARAD will head an interagency USDOT team that will evaluate the responses to this Solicitation. Those submitting proposals may be required to appear in Washington, DC to give an oral presentation on their proposal. Respondents are to address the Statement of Work listed in Section IV of this document. Proposals will be judged on the required following points which provide the basis for the competitive evaluation and selection process: A. Qualifications/Expertise of Respondent in addressing the scope of this Solicitation including the names of key individuals (resumes must be included) that will be committed by the respondent to the study. B. Relevant Studies/Reports/Analysis to the Scope of this Solicitation. C. Comments/additions/related work relevant to the Statement of Work as described in Section IV: Phases 1 through 4. D. Management Approach to Phases 1 through 4. E. Timeline and critical milestones for the project. F. Project budget. -9-
12 VI. SOLICITATION SCHEDULE, REQUIREMENTS AND PAYMENT PROCEDURES A. Five copies of the responses to this Solicitation are due by [August 1, 2010] and will be sent by mail to: B. to that a response has been mailed to the above address with an information copy to Robert Bouchard: Robert.Bouchard@dot.gov. C. Each proposal must contain the following information: Company Name Address Telephone, Fax, and Business Point of Contact Telephone, Fax, and Project Manager/Technical Point of Contact Telephone, Fax, and D. Invoice Approval and Payment Process: Invoices will be paid on a project progress basis. The first payment, one-fifth of the project cost, will be paid after acceptance and approval of the Final Phase 1 results. The second payment, one-fifth of the project cost, will be paid upon acceptance and approval of the Final Phase 2 results. Similar one-fifth shares will be paid upon acceptance of the third and fourth phases. The fifth and final payment will be made after acceptance and approval of the Executive Summary report. Invoices will be submitted for approval to the Project Manager at the above address. NOTICE: All work accomplished under this solicitation will become the property of the Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, at the end of this Contract. -10-
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