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1 The Pharma Poised for Explosive Gains from Aging Baby Boomers 9/24/15: Due to the current bear market, Adam's broad market sell signal triggered and we have closed out our LONG EQUITY positions until we get confirmation that a bear market is not in force. Therefore, at this time, we are not recommending that you invest in Teva Pharmaceuticals. Instead, we suggest that you keep this on your watch list in case we get an alert to buy at a later date.
2 We Spend More on Healthcare as We Age According to the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), the elderly (that s people 65 or older) made up about 14% of the U.S. population in By 2030, that number is expected to be 20%, thanks to the increasing length of life spans. Yet they consumed 42% of the total U.S. personal health care expenses and are expected to consume 66% of the country s health care budget on treating multiple chronic conditions. Back in 2010, the per capita spending by the elderly was $18,424, three times more than the average for working adults, and five times more than children. And as they continue to get older, they ll increase their health-care spending even more. As the AHRQ research shows, people between the ages of 65 and older represented nearly one-third of the top health-care spenders. But it gets even better than that. Baby boomers will continue to turn age 65 in increasing numbers until And our research on consumer spending by age shows that spending on prescription Prescription Drugs drugs grows dramatically into age 77. That means spending in 25 this area will grow strongly into , making it one of the best industries to benefit from baby 15 boomer spending. Demand on the health care industry and pharmaceuticals in particular will only increase as the baby boomers head off into the sunset. Dollars Spent per Year Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Age of Head of Household Earn Cash Dividends as 108 Million Americans Flood the Pharmaceutical Industry The baby boomer generation may as well be an 800 pound gorilla playing in a kid s pool. Back in the 60s and 70s, they jumped into the workforce pool and stretched it out of proportion by three times the number of people entering this same pool now. At the peak of this job madness, it seemed like American businesses were hiring almost three people to do the job of one. Then the boomers jumped into the credit and housing pool and drained the water out, while they pumped $42 trillion into an already inflated market. Now, these 93 million Americans are climbing into the retirement pool. And, as they get older, they ll need more medicine to treat their aging bodies. 1
3 Research from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality shows that the average medical care bill rises along a steep curve for older people Forty-nine percent of federal budget spending in 2014 paid for Social Security and healthcare entitlements (primarily Medicare and Medicaid). And Medicare takes a bigger bite of the budget with each year that passes. According to the Congressional Budget Office: Medicare is the fastest-growing program due to retiring baby boomers, the effects of an aging population and rising health care costs. In 2014, 54 million people were enrolled in the traditional Medicare program. Over the next decade it will need to accommodate a 75% increase in enrollees. By 2025, we ll have nearly 70 million seniors dependent on government for doctors bills, prescription pills and diapers. And that s going to be an expensive endeavor. Over the last decade, growth in health-care expenses has outpaced GDP by 3% each year. This will continue for the next 10 years. The IMS Global Pharmaceutical Market Forecast shows the U.S. alone will represent 31% of the $1.1 trillion global pharmaceutical sales by This is the kind of opportunity you would have to be blind not to see. How to Profit From the Coming American Drug Bonanza Enter Teva Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: TEVA). Founded in the 30s and funded in the early 50s by the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, Teva has become the largest producer of generic drugs in the world. By 1980, it had nearly monopolistic control of this market in India and by 1982 the FDA had approved Teva s manufacturing facilities. But one of the most striking things about Teva is how it has navigated the complex morass of patents and competitors to grow repeatedly carving out winning-quarter after winning-quarter. Both 2014 and 2015 had first-quarter net revenue recordings of $5 billion, a consistent increase of 20% compared to Teva s 2013 revenue results for the same period. More importantly, sales in U.S., which accounts for more than half of revenues, increased 9% to $2.6 billion, reflecting an 18% rise in U.S. generic sales. And with its research and development (R&D) spending, Teva should maintain this pace of growth with ease Teva Spends More on Research and Development Every Year Teva is one of the world s top 15 generic medicine companies. But it is not content with just that accolade. It wants the top spot. Permanently. That s why they spent $328 million in R&D in the first quarter of 2015 alone. Right now, Teva has its sights set on three niche areas: neurological disorders, autoimmune diseases and cancer. Recently, it released globally two generic medications for treating cholesterol and depression. 2
4 At the same time, several of its new products for the treatment of Multiple Sclerosis, Crohn s Disease and Lou Gehrig s disease (ALS) are already in the advanced development stages. And the need for such drugs is overwhelming. Worldwide, about 2.5 million people suffer from MS and nearly 5 million live with Crohn s disease. Those numbers will be greatly impacted by the baby boomer generation as they reach retirement. The company s U.S. generics business definitely benefited from the launch of four new generic products over the last year and seven the prior year. But that s just one reason Teva Pharmaceuticals is an investment opportunity to watch. Another reason is its outstanding dividend-payment history. Since 1990, the company has paid investors dividends without exception. More importantly, the dividends it paid in the fourth quarter of 2013 were more than 10,000% higher than those it first paid 21 years ago. And each year, the dividends increase without fail, having risen to 5.9% in the first quarter of Plus, Teva is constantly reaching agreements with other major players in the market and wheeling and dealing mergers and acquisitions. In doing so, it expands its reach even further. For example, in 2011 it acquired Cephalon in a $6.8 billion deal. With this one step, it successfully enhanced and diversified its branded portfolio, and broadened its product reach into central nervous system, respiratory and pain management. And it gained more traction in the field of oncology. That same year it signed an agreement to create a partnership with Procter & Gamble, bringing together both companies existing over-the-counter medicines to make them available to more people in more locations. The markets included in this joint venture generated sales of more than $1 billion in 2010 alone. They made this deal because both companies see significant growth potential. They say: We expect to stimulate faster growth in the nearly $200 billion over-the-counter healthcare medicines market. As the global population continues to age, consumers increasingly focus on quality of life and wellness, and more people personally manage their family s health care choices Earlier this summer, Teva made a deal to acquire Allergan Generics, the third-largest competing generic drug company in the industry, for $40.5 billion. The move combines Teva s strong generics portfolio with Allergan Generics word-class pipeline, increasing the company s scale and providing patients with more affordable access to their medicines. Erez Vigodman, President and CEO of Teva, stated: This acquisition comes at a time when Teva is stronger than ever, in both our generics and specialty businesses. Together, the employees of Teva and Allergan Generics will play a critical role ensuring we capture the full potential value resulting from this transaction. We look forward to delivering the benefits of this transaction to our stockholders, and better serving patients, customers and healthcare systems throughout the world. Without a doubt, this is a promising company that is in the right position to grow from strength to 3
5 strength as baby boomers get old. However, with Adam O Dell, our Chief Investment Analyst, issuing his broad sell signal on September 11, simply buying and holding this stock is not advisable. Therefore, we mark Teva as a watch, for now. Action to Take: Watch Teva Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: TEVA). When the time is right, we will add this company to our Portfolio. We will give you the details in a future issue of Boom & Bust. Note: The recommendation in this report does not form part of the official Boom & Bust portfolios. We do not track this play. 4
6 Publisher... Shannon Sands Editors... Harry Dent and Rodney Johnson Chief Investment Analyst... Adam O Dell Boom & Bust 55 NE 5th Avenue, Suite 200 Delray Beach, FL USA USA Toll Free Te.l: (888) Contact: Website: Legal Notice: This work is based on what we ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. It s your money and your responsibility. Nothing herein should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer general customer service questions, they are not licensed to address your particular investment situation. Our track record is based on hypothetical results and may not reflect the same results as actual trades. Likewise, past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Certain investments such as futures, options, and currency trading carry large potential rewards but also large potential risk. Don t trade in these markets with money you can t afford to lose. Delray Publishing expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in their own securities or commodities recommendations to readers. Such recommendations may be traded, however, by other editors, Delray Publishing, its affiliated entities, employees, and agents, but only after waiting 24 hours after an internet broadcast or 72 hours after a publication only circulated through the mail. Also, please note that due to our commercial relationship with EverBank, we may receive compensation if you choose to invest in any of their offerings. (c) 2015 Delray Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, (electronic or otherwise) in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Delray Publishing. 55 NE 5th Avenue, Suite 200, Delray Beach FL
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