Cape Cod and the Islands Trends September 2014

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1 33 Arch Street, 28 th Floor Boston, MA Telephone (617) Fax (617) Cape Cod and the Islands Trends September 2014 Cape Cod Area Roundup The Cape Cod area (Cape Cod, Martha s Vineyard, and Nantucket Island) hotels reported relatively flat operating results for September The 16 hotel operators in the PKF Trends sample for the Cape Cod area achieved an average 70.8 percent occupancy at a $ average daily rate (ADR) with a resulting $ revenue per available room (RevPAR). These performance levels represented a slight occupancy gain of 0.1 percent, a slight 0.2 percent increase in ADR, and an overall 0.3 percent gain in RevPAR for September 2014 as compared to September For September 2014, three submarkets experienced an occupancy gain, ranging between 0.8 percent in the $125 and Over ADR rate category to 1.6 percent in the Over 100 Rooms size category. The three remaining subcategories experienced a decrease in occupancy, the greatest of which was in the Under 100 Rooms size category with a loss of 4.4 percent. Conversely, four submarkets achieved increases in ADR, with hotels in the Under $125 ADR rate category gaining the most ADR growth at 4.3 percent. Overall, the Islands submarket achieved the highest occupancy among all submarkets of 78.9 percent. September has traditionally been a strong group month. This certainly holds true for September 2014 as hotels in the Cape Cod area transition from greeting leisure guests in the summer peak time to welcoming various groups in early fall. Compared to the same period last year, September 2014 has seen an even larger increase in groups, as corporate and association groups are drawn to the lower hotel rates and relatively pleasant weather in the Cape Cod area. It is reasonable to conclude that the minimal ADR increase in September is due to the increase in groups, which are typically at a lower rate than transient demand. It is anticipated that we will continue seeing this pattern into October. For year-to-date September 2014, under the Location category, the Islands submarket achieved a RevPAR gain of 3.5 percent, attributable to relatively equal occupancy and ADR increases. The Cape Cod submarket achieved a RevPAR gain of 6.3 percent. However, it was driven solely by a strong ADR increase of 6.2 percent. Under the Average Daily Rate category, the hotels in the Over $125 ADR category achieved healthy RevPAR growth at 5.7 percent, with growth driven mostly by the solid gain in ADR. The Under $125 ADR category experienced a slight RevPAR increase of 0.3 percent, as the larger ADR growth offset the smaller occupancy loss.

2 Under the Size category, the hotels in the Over 100 Rooms category achieved a RevPAR gain of 6.0 percent, mostly driven by the strong ADR increase. The Under 100 Rooms category experienced a smaller RevPAR increase of 3.5 percent, which resulted from the larger ADR gain offsetting the slight occupancy decrease. Overall, many hotels in the Cape Cod area finished September 2014 with relatively flat RevPAR results compared to September The following article and charts present our latest analysis of hotel budget accuracy. Budgeting Is Getting Easy by: Robert Mandelbaum Throw away the Ouija and dart boards. Apparently predicting the performance of U.S. hotels has become very easy for U.S. hotel managers. For the third consecutive year, management s projections of revenues, expenses and profits contained in their budgets have been extremely accurate. Since 2001, PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE company, (PKF-HR) has assessed the accuracy of hotel budgets. Over the past 13 years, one trend has become very predictable. During times of industry prosperity, hotel budgets are extremely accurate. In 2013, U.S. hoteliers overestimated their total property revenues by just 0.04 percent. However, by accommodating fewer rooms than anticipated, the amount spent to operate hotels was 0.07 percent less than anticipated, thus allowing for profits 0.07 percent in excess of the budgeted amount. For the purpose of this analysis, profits are defined as net operating income (NOI) before deductions for capital reserve, rent, interest, income taxes, depreciation, and amortization As general managers, controllers, and directors of sales prepare their budgets and marketing plans for 2015, we present the results of our most recent look at the budgeting accuracy of U.S. hotel operators. From PKF-HR s Trends in the Hotel Industry database, we identified 545 operating statements that contained both actual and budgeted data for Using these statements, we compared the revenues and expenses projected for 2013 with what was actually earned and spent during the year. A Little Short In Rooms Unlike recent years, hotel managers overestimated the number of rooms they would rent in In their budgets, operators anticipated a 1.5 percent increase in occupied rooms. At the end of the year, these same hotels achieved a 1.4 percent gain in occupancy rooms. Accommodating fewer rooms led to slightly less pricing power. The hotels in our sample anticipated a 4.3 percent rise in average daily rates (ADR) in 2013, but only achieved a 4.2 percent increase. The net result was a rooms revenue (RevPAR) shortfall of 0.24 percent. Concurrently, total hotel revenue was off budget by only 0.04 percent. This implies that the combined growth in revenue from food and beverage, other operated departments, and rentals and other income exceeded the budget. The growth in revenue sources other than the rooms department was welcome news.

3 Better On The Bottom Facing a revenue deficit relative to budgeted expectations, hotel managers were forced to take corrective actions in order to achieve their profit objectives. During 2013, expenses at the properties in the study sample increased by 3.9 percent. This is 0.1 percentage points less than the budgeted expense growth rate of 4.0 percent. Fortunately for hotel operators, and their owners, the 3.9 percent growth in expense was sufficient to allow these properties to surpass their budgeted profit levels. On average, the hotels in our sample exceeded their 2013 budgeted NOI goals by 0.07 percent.

4 The Benefits of Accuracy The analysis of hotel budget accuracy is consistent with PKF-HR s self-analysis of the accuracy of our Hotel Horizons forecasts of U.S. lodging industry performance. Our accuracy assessments have consistently shown that forecasts of lodging performance are most accurate during the growth periods of the business cycle. PKF-HR s latest forecasts call for continued real RevPAR gains through This implies that industry forecasts, as well as property-level budgets, will continue to be accurate for the foreseeable future. For participants in the lodging industry, accurate budgets and forecasts provide predictability. For investors and lenders, predictability implies less risk. For owners, predictability leads to better management of cash flows and investments. For operators, predictability (in theory) means fewer headaches. What to Budget for 2015 According to the September 2014 edition of Hotel Horizons, PKF-HR is projecting that a 6.7 percent increase in RevPAR will lead to a 6.3 percent gain in total hotel revenues for Concurrently, operating expenses are forecast to rise by 3.7 percent. This should result in a 12.4 percent improvement in profits. Given this positive market forecast, historical trends indicate that the odds are favorable for U.S. hotels to achieve their budgeted targets once again in * * * Robert Mandelbaum works in the Atlanta office of PKF Hospitality Research, a CBRE company (PKF- HR). PKF-HR offers hotel managers several tools and reports to assist them in the preparation of their 2015 budgets. For more information, please visit the PKF-HR website at store.pkfc.com, or call (855)

5 REPORT OF ROOMS BUSINESS BY LOCATION STATISTICS AND TRENDS OF HOTEL-MOTEL BUSINESS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS MONTHLY TRENDS MONTH OF SEPTEMBER ISLANDS $ $ % 78.9% 81.1% -2.7% $ $ % CAPE COD % 68.2% 67.4% 1.2% % OVERALL AVERAGE $ $ % 70.8% 70.7% 0.1% $ $ % REPORT OF ROOMS BUSINESS BY AVERAGE DAILY RATE $ AND OVER $ $ % 74.1% 73.5% 0.8% $ $ % UNDER $ % 62.5% 63.7% -1.9% % OVERALL AVERAGE $ $ % 70.8% 70.7% 0.1% $ $ % REPORT OF ROOMS BUSINESS BY SIZE OF PROPERTY OVER 100 ROOMS $ $ % 72.7% 71.5% 1.6% $ $ % UNDER 100 ROOMS % 65.3% 68.3% -4.4% % OVERALL AVERAGE $ $ % 70.8% 70.7% 0.1% $ $ % Survey includes 16 properties in the Cape Cod and Islands area with 1,612 available rooms. SOURCE: PKF CONSULTING USA

6 REPORT OF ROOMS BUSINESS BY LOCATION STATISTICS AND TRENDS OF HOTEL-MOTEL BUSINESS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS MONTHLY TRENDS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER ISLANDS $ $ % 66.6% 65.6% 1.5% $ $ % CAPE COD % 52.2% 52.1% 0.1% % OVERALL AVERAGE $ $ % 55.0% 54.8% 0.4% $ $ % REPORT OF ROOMS BUSINESS BY AVERAGE DAILY RATE $ AND OVER $ $ % 57.4% 56.9% 0.9% $ $ % UNDER $ % 48.9% 49.3% -0.9% % OVERALL AVERAGE $ $ % 55.0% 54.8% 0.4% $ $ % REPORT OF ROOMS BUSINESS BY SIZE OF PROPERTY OVER 100 ROOMS $ $ % 54.1% 53.7% 0.6% $ $ % UNDER 100 ROOMS % 58.4% 58.6% -0.2% % OVERALL AVERAGE $ $ % 55.0% 54.8% 0.4% $ $ % Survey includes 16 properties in the Cape Cod and Islands area with 1,612 available rooms. SOURCE: PKF CONSULTING USA

7 Cape Cod Area Market Mix Market Mix September 2014 Group 52% Leisure 48% Market Mix September 2013 Group 46% Leisure 54%

8 Cape Cod Area Market Mix Market Mix September 2014 YTD Group 31% Leisure 69% Market Mix September 2013 YTD Group 29% Leisure 71% is compiled and produced by PKF Consulting. Readers are advised that PKF Consulting does not represent the data contained herein to be definitive. Neither should the contents of this publication be construed as a recommendation of policies or actions. Quotation and reproduction of this material are permitted with credit to PKF Consulting.

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