OPB FOX 12 Primary Election Survey General Election
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- Kristopher Reed
- 7 years ago
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1 May 2016 OPB FOX 12 Primary Election Survey General Election Crosstabs Prepared by DHM Research NW 13 th Ave #205 Portland, OR
2 OPB Fox 12 Primary Election Survey General Election May 6-9, 2016;; N=900 How to Read Crosstables: In the example chart (left), rows represent the three possible response options to the question All in all, do you think things are headed in the right direction, or are things pretty much on the wrong track? The three response options are: right direction, wrong track, and don t know. The amounts in each response category sum to the amount in the total row at the top of the table. The first column, or banner, is the Total column. It reflects the overall results. The next two columns reflect the results of a subgroup, Gender. The gender subgroup is composed of Males and Females, each with their own column. Both gender groups are assigned a letter (Male=B, Female=C). These two columns show how male s attitudes compare to female s attitudes. As shown in the chart, 69% of the full sample thinks things are headed in the right direction. Looking at the gender subgroup, 71% of women think things are headed in the right direction, compared to 66% of males. Statistically Significant Differences: If a pair of cells has a difference which is statistically significant, the larger of the two cells is flagged with the letter of the opposite column. The test shows the difference in female s attitudes about things being headed in the right direction is statistically significantly different than those of male s, which is signified by a B (the letter given to Males) next to female s results for right direction. The footnote indicates the level of significance (sig=.05). This level of significance means that 5% of the time, the difference between how the two groups feel about the direction is due to random chance, while 95% of the time the difference is meaningful. Statement of Limitations: Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error, which represents the difference between a sample of a given population and the total population. The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results and differs by sample size, as reflected in the table below. Margin of Error Based on Sample Size N=1200 N=1000 N=800 N=600 N=500 N=400 N=300 N=200 N=150 N=100 N=50 +/- 2.8% +/- 3.1% +/- 3.5% +/- 4.0% +/- 4.4% +/- 4.9% +/- 5.7% +/- 6.9% +/- 8.0% +/- 9.8% +/- 13.8% 2
3 Q5. There is a primary election in Oregon on May 17. Last week, ballots were mailed to registered voters. Have you received your ballot in the mail? Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Yes G 318G 257G 332M 281M N 306NO 94% 95% 93% 92% 93% 94% 85% 93% 95% 95% 94% 97% 88% 88% 93% 98% No HIJ L 6 23L 20OP 22P 7 5% 4% 7% 7% 5% 6% 12% 4% 5% 5% 6% 2% 9% 11% 6% 2% Don't know 8 4-4C 6 3 4IJ 5IJ KL 4P 5-1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 4% 2% * 3% 2% 1% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP Note: Percentage less than 0.5 printed as *. 3
4 Q5. There is a primary election in Oregon on May 17. Last week, ballots were mailed to registered voters. Have you received your ballot in the mail? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Yes B % 91% 92% 96% 92% 95% 91% 96% 95% 97% 100% 100% 100% 93% 95% 92% 94% 91% No % 7% 7% 4% 6% 5% 8% 4% 2% 1% 5% 5% 7% 6% 7% Don't know F O - 1O - 1O 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 4
5 Q6. Do you plan to vote in the primary election? Base: Those who have not received their ballots Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Yes % 94% 96% 86% 91% 92% 85% 100% 94% 87% 100% 89% 87% 89% 91% 100% Don't know % 6% 4% 14% 9% 8% 15% 6% 13% 11% 13% 11% 9% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 5
6 Q6. Do you plan to vote in the primary election? Base: Those who have not received their ballots Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Yes % 85% 93% 97% 85% 100% 90% 100% 100% 100% 95% 97% 85% 100% 77% Don't know % 15% 7% 3% 15% 10% 5% 3% 15% 23% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 6
7 Q7. Which of the follow applies to you: Base: Those who received their ballots Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) You have already H 98H 130M 103M NO returned your ballot 33% 33% 31% 35% 33% 33% 33% 25% 35% 38% 39% 37% 21% 27% 29% 42% You have received your ballot, but not returned it yet % % % % 64% 65% 53 63% 134J % 63% % % % 177KL 115P 258P % 70% 69% 57% You are not planning to vote in this election 8 1% 2 * 2 1% 3 1% 4 1% 3 1% 3IJ 4% 2 1% 2 1% - 2 1% 1 * 5 2% 4P 3% 3 1% 1 * Don't know % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% * 2% 1% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP Note: Percentage less than 0.5 printed as *. 7
8 Q7. Which of the follow applies to you: Base: Those who received their ballots Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) You have already I 56I 43I LM PR 140PR returned your ballot 33% 33% 36% 32% 31% 37% 37% 35% 20% 27% 100% 36% 38% 20% 28% 20% You have received your ballot, but not returned it yet % % % % 73 64% 94 61% 93 61% 79 64% 70EFG 48 78%H 73% - 547KM 100% % % 69NO 20 77% 66% 64 72% You are not planning to vote in this election 8 1% 1 * 3 1% 4 1% 4G 4% 2 1% - 2 1% KL 100% 1 * 1 * 1 1% 1 3% 4NO 4% Don't know 9 3D O 1% 2% 1% * 1% * 2% 1% 1% * 1% 3% 4% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR Note: Percentage less than 0.5 printed as *. 8
9 Q12. If the general election were held today and the candidates for president were Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for? Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Donald Trump B 163F KM 76K % 27% 32% 39% 37% 27% 30% 28% 34% 33% 6% 66% 29% 28% 33% 33% Hillary Clinton D E GH 276LM 26 83L % 49% 41% 35% 36% 49% 32% 37% 44% 50% 79% 9% 32% 40% 42% 45% Some other candidate IJ 32J 33J KL % 10% 14% 10% 11% 11% 19% 16% 10% 5% 6% 10% 18% 12% 12% 8% Will skip this J contest 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 6% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% 6% 3% 3% Don't know K 45KL % 10% 10% 12% 12% 9% 13% 14% 9% 10% 6% 11% 17% 14% 10% 11% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 9
10 Q12. If the general election were held today and the candidates for president were Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Donald Trump G 42EG OPQ % 32% 33% 32% 28% 33% 24% 36% 44% 30% 34% 31% 15% 100%R Hillary Clinton LM NPQ % 43% 39% 45% 39% 44% 48% 40% 40% 47% 50% 41% 9% 100%R Some other candidate K NOQR % 8% 13% 11% 12% 9% 14% 10% 7% 14% 7% 13% 13% 100% Will skip this NOPR - contest 4% 5% 4% 3% 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 3% 4% 10% 100% Don't know F K 4KL NOPQ 11% 12% 12% 9% 17% 9% 11% 11% 8% 10% 7% 12% 53% 100% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 10
11 Q13. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Donald Trump or more because you oppose Hillary Clinton? Base: Those who would vote for Donald Trump Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Support Donald Trump % 34% 43% 42% 39% 39% 35% 36% 39% 43% 31% 41% 37% 32% 38% 43% Oppose Hillary Clinton 52% 56% 48% 51% 52% 53% 52% 54% 53% 50% 64% 51% 52% 60% 51% 50% Neither N 5 5% 5% 8% 3% 5% 5% 5% 7% 6% 3% 6% 5% 7% 5% Don't know L % 6% 1% 3% 3% 3% 8% 2% 2% 4% 5% 2% 7% 7% 3% 2% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 11
12 Q13. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Donald Trump or more because you oppose Hillary Clinton? Base: Those who would vote for Donald Trump Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Support Donald Trump % 46% 40% 34% 42% 43% 32% 40% 35% 33% 41% 39% 39% Oppose Hillary F 28 26F Clinton 52% 46% 48% 59% 52% 41% 62% 60% 63% 42% 52% 52% 100% 52% Neither GHI % 4% 6% 5% 4% 7% 2% 2% 18% 4% 7% 5% Don't know HI % 3% 6% 2% 3% 9% 4% 7% 2% 2% 3% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 12
13 Q14. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Hillary Clinton or more because you oppose Donald Trump? Base: Those who would vote for Hillary Clinton Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Support Hillary M N 69 Clinton 48% 49% 48% 45% 43% 51% 30% 43% 52% 49% 54% 35% 30% 35% 52% 49% Oppose Donald Trump IJ K 54K 44OP % 43% 38% 50% 45% 42% 67% 52% 38% 39% 35% 62% 64% 58% 39% 40% Neither BD 4 16F % 5% 12% 4% 10% 4% 5% 7% 9% 8% 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% Don't know % 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 13
14 Q14. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Hillary Clinton or more because you oppose Donald Trump? Base: Those who would vote for Hillary Clinton Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Support Hillary EI L Clinton 48% 43% 56% 46% 37% 51% 46% 61% 33% 39% 58% 40% 48% Oppose Donald Trump K % 49% 38% 44% 50% 42% 45% 37% 46% 57% 34% 50% 100% 43% Neither J % 8% 4% 7% 13% 4% 5% 3% 16% 5% 8% 7% Don't know % 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 6% 3% 2% 2% 2% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 14
15 Q15. Scientists believe that there is a significant chance that Oregon will experience a major earthquake in the coming years. If that were to happen, who would you trust more as President of the United States to help Oregon in the aftermath: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Donald Trump B 163F KM 82K % 25% 30% 42%C 37% 26% 29% 29% 32% 32% 7% 61% 31% 26% 33% 32% Hillary Clinton D 104D E LM 26 87L % 48% 43% 33% 37% 47% 38% 39% 42% 46% 76% 9% 33% 45% 41% 42% Don't know J 64J K 92K % 28% 27% 25% 26% 27% 33% 32% 26% 22% 17% 30% 35% 30% 25% 27% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 15
16 Q15. Scientists believe that there is a significant chance that Oregon will experience a major earthquake in the coming years. If that were to happen, who would you trust more as President of the United States to help Oregon in the aftermath: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Donald Trump G 39GJ OPQ 9 11O 3O 18O 31% 34% 30% 30% 31% 33% 25% 36% 41% 25% 32% 32% 15% 83%R 2% 11% 10% 19% Hillary Clinton LM NPQ 13N 7N 17N 42% 40% 40% 45% 39% 44% 49% 43% 39% 42% 50% 39% 9% 2% 87%R 13% 21% 17% Don't know K 6KL NO 22NO 63NO 27% 25% 30% 25% 30% 23% 26% 21% 20% 33% 19% 29% 76% 15% 10% 76% 69% 64% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 16
17 Q16. Next, I'd like to ask you about a measure that may be on your ballot in the November general election. I will it exactly as it will appear. Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education; healthcare, senior services A "Yes" vote increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; removes tax limit; exempts "benefit companies"; increased revenue funds education, healthcare, senior services. A "No" vote retains existing corporate minimum tax rates based on Oregon sales; tax limited to $100,000; revenue not dedicated to education, healthcare, senior services. If the election were today, would you vote "Yes" to support the measure or "No" to oppose it? Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Total yes E LM L 108P % 53% 49% 47% 45% 56% 49% 56% 50% 49% 68% 28% 52% 57% 51% 46% Yes - certain LM 51 85L 78OP % 37% 30% 30% 30% 36% 35% 32% 32% 34% 46% 18% 32% 42% 31% 30% Yes - lean E 14 47J L 30 50L % 17% 19% 18% 15% 20% 14% 24% 18% 15% 23% 10% 19% 16% 21% 15% Total no F KM 72K N % 32% 32% 30% 38% 25% 30% 30% 35% 29% 16% 54% 27% 24% 32% 36% No - lean KM % 7% 9% 8% 8% 8% 6% 8% 9% 8% 5% 14% 6% 8% 8% 9% No - certain F KM 55K N 23% 25% 23% 22% 30% 17% 24% 22% 26% 22% 11% 41% 21% 16% 24% 27% Don't know B I % 15% 18% 22% 17% 19% 22% 15% 15% 22% 16% 17% 21% 19% 17% 19% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 17
18 Q16. Next, I'd like to ask you about a measure that may be on your ballot in the November general election. I will it exactly as it will appear. Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education; healthcare, senior services A "Yes" vote increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; removes tax limit; exempts "benefit companies"; increased revenue funds education, healthcare, senior services. A "No" vote retains existing corporate minimum tax rates based on Oregon sales; tax limited to $100,000; revenue not dedicated to education, healthcare, senior services. If the election were today, would you vote "Yes" to support the measure or "No" to oppose it? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Total yes J 93J 80EJ NQR 54N % 47% 53% 52% 49% 55% 56% 62% 51% 38% 47% 52% 45% 33% 66% 55% 38% 43% Yes - certain NPR % 31% 32% 35% 32% 31% 37% 38% 39% 26% 33% 33% 45% 22% 45% 30% 33% 20% Yes - lean I 31 31I NQ 24NQ 2 23NQ 18% 16% 22% 17% 16% 24% 19% 24% 12% 12% 14% 19% 11% 21% 25% 5% 23% Total no EFH 104L OPQ 65 36O 7 32O % 28% 31% 34% 28% 27% 34% 28% 36% 46% 37% 30% 33% 50%R 17% 36% 21% 33% No - lean O 17 11O 1 9 8% 9% 10% 7% 10% 7% 11% 8% 8% 6% 8% 8% 18% 12% 4% 11% 3% 9% No - certain B EFGH 83L OPQ 48 25O 6 23O 23% 19% 21% 27% 19% 21% 23% 20% 28% 40% 30% 21% 15% 38%R 12% 26% 18% 23% Don't know CD GH P 8 13NOP 23P 18% 24% 16% 14% 23% 17% 10% 10% 13% 16% 16% 18% 22% 17% 17% 9% 41% 24% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 18
19 Q17. Gender Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Male F K 144K % 48% 48% 52% 100% 52% 54% 49% 45% 41% 54% 55% 55% 48% 46% Female E LM % 52% 52% 48% 100% 48% 46% 51% 55% 59% 46% 45% 45% 52% 54% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 19
20 Q17. Gender Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Male O O 49% 50% 48% 49% 45% 46% 54% 46% 57% 60% 49% 49% 57% 57% 41% 50% 49% 55% Female NR % 50% 52% 51% 55% 54% 46% 54% 43% 40% 51% 51% 43% 43% 59% 50% 51% 45% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 20
21 Q18. Age Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) HIJ L 15 50KL 65OP 32P 2 11% 12% 8% 12% 12% 10% 100% 10% 5% 19% 35% 8% 1% C GIJ KL 57P 112P 29 22% 26% 17% 21% 24% 20% 100% 17% 16% 35% 30% 28% 9% GHJ M N 127N 37% 36% 40% 36% 37% 37% 100% 37% 44% 29% 26% 40% 40% B GH 127M 102M N 156NO 30% 26% 35% 31% 27% 33% 100%I 36% 35% 16% 9% 24% 50% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 21
22 Q18. Age Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) D 37D 28 33FGH KL NO 6O 13 11% 14% 16% 7% 27%IJ 8% 11% 4% 4% 8% 10% 10% 45% 10% 8% 19% 20% 13% B E 36EFG K NO % 16% 23% 25% 14% 19% 21% 27% 39%J 20% 16% 25% 23% 19% 19% 32% 34% 28% E 54E 38 38EF % 34% 37% 38% 27% 32% 42% 42% 40% 55% 39% 37% 32% 40% 38% 34% 29% 31% C IJ 66GHI P 136P P 30% 36% 24% 30% 33% 41%J 26% 27% 18% 16% 35% 29% 31% 35% 15% 17% 28% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 22
23 Q19. Party Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Democrat CD 90D E GH 351LM N % 47% 37% 29% 32% 45% 34% 31% 39% 47%I 100% 31% 41% 40% Republican B 105B GH 102GH - 288KM N 148NO 32% 25% 34% 40% 35% 29% 15% 23% 38% 38% 100% 15% 28% 47% NAV/Other F IJ 92IJ 77J KL 100OP 122P 39 29% 27% 29% 31% 33% 26% 51% 47% 23% 15% 100% 53% 30% 12% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 23
24 Q19. Party Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Democrat L NPQ 22N 10N 21N 39% 38% 36% 42% 41% 43% 40% 40% 32% 38% 46% 36% 23% 8% 72%R 22% 32% 21% Republican EF OPQ 26 28O 12O 32O 32% 28% 30% 35% 25% 30% 32% 32% 43% 32% 37% 32% 15% 66%R 7% 29% 37% 33% NAV/Other D 80D K 5K NO 10 45NO 29% 35% 34% 23% 34% 28% 28% 28% 25% 30% 17% 32% 61% 26% 22% 49% 31% 46% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 24
25 Q20. Vote History Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) 0 of HIJ 25IJ 16J KL 81OP - - 9% 8% 8% 11% 11% 7% 37% 13% 5% 1% 5% 4% 19% 43% 1 of HIJ 32J 33J 14 40L 17 50KL 107OP % 11% 12% 13% 13% 11% 29% 16% 10% 5% 12% 6% 19% 57% 2 of D 61D GIJ 86J 38 94L 48 81L - 224NP - 25% 30% 25% 17% 24% 25% 22% 40% 26% 14% 27% 17% 31% 56% 3 of G 59G NP - 20% 17% 20% 23% 19% 20% 10% 17% 22% 22% 20% 22% 16% 44% 4 of G 127GH 156GH 127M 148KM NO 35% 34% 35% 37% 33% 37% 2% 15% 38% 58%I 36% 51% 15% 100% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 25
26 Q20. Vote History Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) 0 of CD HJ 15 17J NO 14 9% 15% 8% 6% 13% 9% 10% 5% 10% 2% 6% 9% 12% 8% 7% 8% 22% 14% 1 of J 18 24J KL % 13% 13% 11% 18% 11% 15% 13% 11% 5% 10% 12% 46% 10% 12% 15% 14% 13% 2 of FGI K N % 23% 29% 24% 27% 24% 23% 26% 22% 38% 17% 28% 10% 22% 25% 33% 23% 24% 3 of % 18% 21% 19% 17% 21% 15% 22% 21% 20% 21% 19% 23% 23% 19% 17% 16% 15% 4 of BC L % 32% 29% 40% 26% 35% 37% 34% 35% 36% 46% 32% 9% 36% 37% 27% 25% 34% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 26
27 Q21. Area of the state Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Portland Metro CD J LM % 100% 43% 45% 47% 52% 43% 38% 53% 35% 42% 40% 47% 43% Willamette Valley BD H % 100% 27% 27% 21% 20% 29% 32% 26% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% Rest of State B K 81K % 100%C 31% 27% 32% 27% 28% 30% 21% 37% 31% 33% 26% 30% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 27
28 Q21. Area of the state Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Portland Metro B 198B E 47E 41EFG N % 35% 48% 47% 33% 37% 43% 47% 50% 60% 45% 45% 23% 38% 50% 39% 50% 41% Willamette Valley C 34 51IJ 43 42IJ % 27% 19% 31% 28% 31% 26% 32% 18% 16% 25% 28% 31% 27% 26% 35% 21% 25% Rest of State D 77D 93 49HJ 51H 52H O % 38% 33% 22% 39% 31% 31% 20% 32% 24% 30% 27% 46% 35% 24% 26% 29% 33% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 28
29 Q22. What is the highest level of education that you have achieved? Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Less than high OP 5 3 school 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 1% 1% High school diploma B H HI or GED 24% 20% 23% 32%C 25% 23% 31% 18% 22% 29% 23% 22% 29% 31% 22% 22% 2-yr degree or C 45 77C J P 67 college 26% 29% 18% 29% 25% 27% 37% 27% 26% 21% 24% 24% 30% 26% 30% 21% 4-yr degree D 79D M % 31% 32% 17% 26% 29% 22% 30% 29% 26% 29% 31% 22% 27% 27% 29% Graduate degree G 63G 56G N 78NO 19% 19% 21% 18% 21% 17% 5% 24% 19% 21% 21% 20% 15% 11% 18% 25% Refused B % 1% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 29
30 Q22. What is the highest level of education that you have achieved? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Less than high 16 16CD K school 2% 7% 3% 3% * 1% * 2% 1% 3% 2% 3% High school diploma CD FGH 39IJ 39IJ P or GED 24% 93% 43%IJ 24% 23% 15% 12% 9% 24% 23% 10% 25% 24% 16% 30% 29% 2-yr degree or BD - 41HIJ 55HIJ 51IJ college 26% 100% 33% 34% 31% 22% 16% 14% 28% 24% 38% 27% 23% 31% 26% 29% 4-yr degree BC 14 43E 53E 51EF 32E 25E % 59% 12% 27% 32% 40% 34% 37% 26% 29% 52% 29% 28% 30% 29% 20% Graduate degree BC EF 33EFG 27EFGH % 41% 7% 12% 14% 23% 35% 39% 21% 20% 17% 22% 19% 10% 17% Refused O 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR Note: Percentage less than 0.5 printed as *. 30
31 Q23. What was your total household income in 2015? Area Gender Party Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe NAV/ Total Metro Valley State male Dem Rep Other of 4 of 4 of Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) Less than $25, B HIJ P % 10% 14% 19% 12% 15% 33% 9% 10% 15% 14% 11% 16% 20% 13% 10% $25,000 to less GHI than $50,000 18% 15% 21% 19% 17% 19% 13% 16% 15% 24% 20% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% $50,000 to less than $75,000 18% 18% 18% 20% 20% 17% 18% 18% 21% 16% 19% 19% 18% 22% 16% 20% $75,000 to less D G 54G than $100,000 14% 15% 17% 10% 14% 15% 6% 17% 16% 13% 15% 14% 14% 12% 16% 14% $100,000 to less GIJ 38GJ K than $150,000 10% 12% 7% 11% 12% 9% 4% 18% 11% 6% 9% 14% 9% 11% 10% 10% More than $150, C J N 25N 8% 10% 4% 6% 9% 6% 6% 7% 11% 4% 7% 8% 8% 2% 10% 8% Refused I % 19% 19% 14% 15% 20% 21% 15% 15% 21% 16% 18% 19% 15% 17% 20% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM, NOP 31
32 Q23. What was your total household income in 2015? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Less than $25, D 41D FGH KL NO 14% 25% 18% 6% 100%IJ 12% 13% 55% 12% 12% 15% 18% 21% $25,000 to less D EGH than $50,000 18% 19% 23% 15% 100%IJ 21% 17% 22% 19% 18% 15% 26% 14% $50,000 to less EFH N 23N 5 17 than $75,000 18% 17% 22% 18% 100%IJ 20% 17% 14% 21% 23% 16% 18% $75,000 to less BC EFG than $100,000 14% 9% 12% 19% 100%IJ 15% 14% 23% 16% 13% 14% 8% 15% $100,000 to less BC EFGH K than $150,000 10% 5% 7% 16% 100%J 7% 13% 14% 10% 7% 2% 8% More than $150, BC EFGH % 3% 4% 12% 100%I 6% 9% 7% 8% 10% 7% Refused CD % 23% 15% 14% 19% 16% 17% 17% 17% 31% 17% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 32
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