Growers face increasing challenges

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1 Rotations and permanent beds to fight the cotton cost-price squeeze By Fiona Scott and Nilantha Hulugalle, NSW Department of Primary Industries and Cotton CRC Growers face increasing challenges due to low prices, increased costs and limited water. It is important to identify strategies to help buffer against these challenges, through farming systems that help increase yields, reduce costs and maintain soil structure and productivity. In this article we report on recent economic results ( ) from two experiments at ACRI that showed that cotton-wheat rotations were more resilient to falls in cotton prices and increases in fuel and fertiliser prices. A: First experiment The first experiment compared: Conventional tillage (discing, chiselling, bedding every year) on back-to-back cotton (six cotton crops since 2000); Permanent beds under back-to-back cotton; and, Permanent beds under a cotton-wheat rotation (three cotton and three wheat crops since 2000). B: Second experiment The second experiment, which commenced in 2002, compares: Back-to-back cotton; A cotton-vetch-cotton rotation; A cotton-wheat rotation where wheat stubble is incorporated; and, A cotton-wheat-vetch rotation where sufficient water to irrigate all the available vetch is sown into standing wheat stubble. All rotations were sown on permanent beds with supplementary irrigation. We compared these systems on a per field basis, that is assuming a field was continuously farmed under the particular land. They were also compared as part of a whole farm where there is only sufficient water to fully irrigate half of the available land. The latter opens the possibility for systems which only have cotton every second year (such as cotton-wheat-fallow-cotton) system, as might be the case if there was 42s The Quality & Service Ginning Company from Field to Bale North West will handle and process your cotton for the best results Step up to Quality Assured ginning by Australia s premier independent ginning company Whittaker s Lagoon, PO Box 916, Moree, NSW, 2400 Phone: (02) Fax: (02) If you want quality ginning talk to Andrew Geddes or Wayne Clissold APRIL MAY 2007 THE AUSTRALIAN COTTONGROWER 41

2 w41 FIGHT THE COST-PRICE SQUEEZE on a per field basis, to have a cotton crop every year though in a different field following a wheat rotation each time. This system is probably more typical of many farms, especially under the current drought conditions with limited allocation. Permanent beds vs. conventional tillage comparisons on a field basis Using a cotton price of $450 per bale, the back-to-back cotton on permanent beds returned the highest average annual gross margin ($1533 per hectare) (Figure 1A). This was eight per cent higher than the conventionally-tilled back-to-back cotton ($1424 per hectare) and 27 per cent higher than the cotton-wheat on permanent beds ($1211 per hectare). If cotton prices fall to $350 per bale (without including input price increases), the relative ranking of average gross margins changes to: Back-to-back cotton on permanent beds ($776 per hectare); Cotton-wheat on permanent beds ($742 per hectare); and, Conventionally-tilled back-to-back cotton ($692 per hectare). FIGURE 1: Average annul gross margin at $450 a bale Bars = Gross margin $/ha Circles = Gross margin $/ml FIGURE 2: Experiment A effect of tillage system and crop rotation on gross margins using variable prices Squares = Cotton-wheat/permanent beds Triangles = Back-to-back/permanent beds Circles = Back-to-back/conventional For gross margin per megalitre of irrigation water (at $450 per bale), cottonwheat on permanent beds gave a 27 per cent higher return ($363 per megalitre) than conventionally-tilled back-to-back cotton ($285 per megalitre) and 18 per cent more than back-to-back cotton on permanent beds. Impact of price changes In addition to declining prices, growers also face issues of increasing fuel and fertiliser prices due to world oil price increases. The profitability of different rotations is affected by different cotton prices relative to wheat, but rotations can also differ in terms of their resilience to changing input prices, especially as some crops such as cotton require more machinery passes for cultivation, weed control and spraying than wheat or vetch. Generally, rotations with lower overall fuel costs will be less affected by rising fuel prices. Price changes examined included using cotton lint prices of $450 and $350 per bale, a cotton seed price of $175 per tonne, and by increasing both on-farm diesel and nitrogen fertiliser prices by 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent. The base diesel price used was the June 2006 price of $1.52 per litre at the bowser (which is equivalent to $1.00 per litre on-farm, ex-gst and less off-road diesel rebate). The base price of the major fertiliser used, anhydrous ammonia, was $900 per tonne. All other input costs were not altered. Rising world fuel prices may also affect other inputs such as insecticides, herbicides, growth regulators and other nutrients, but the magnitude of this is very complex and will differ between products and companies. Contract costs are a large part of cotton operations, so it was assumed that there would be a 0.5 per cent increase in 42 THE AUSTRALIAN COTTONGROWER APRIL MAY 2007

3 contract charges for every one per cent increase in the price of fuel. Even though in practice some contract rates are quoted plus fuel (the grower pays a base rate per hectare and pays for fuel on top of that), for ease of calculation, contract rates used were calculated to include the cost of fuel. The relative rate increases were estimated by calculating the estimated contract rates for a sample tractor (using variable costs, including fuel and oil, and overhead costs per hectare plus a 20 per cent profit margin). The average increase in estimated contract rates was in the order of 50 per cent when fuel prices increased by 100 per cent. Using this assumption, for example, an aerial spraying charge of baseline $14 per hectare would increase to $21 per hectare if fuel prices rose by 100 per cent. As shown in Figure 2, the cotton-wheat rotation on permanent beds was less affected by the increase in diesel and fertiliser costs and so appears to be more resilient to such increases, especially at low cotton prices. This is due to a lower frequency of cotton crops and therefore lower overall input costs. The relative profitability of the rotations also changes as cotton price increases, due to the increase in the price of cotton relative to wheat. FIGURE 3: Experiment B effect of rotation ongross margin using variable prices Rotations on permanent beds comparisons on a field basis At a cotton price of $450 per bale, average annual gross margins were in the Squares = Cotton--vetch Triangles = Back-to-back cotton Circles = Cotton-wheat Diamonds = Cotton-wheat-vetch order of back-to-back cotton ($1419 per hectare) followed by cotton-vetch-cotton ($1288 per hectare), cotton-wheat-vetch 44s WHEN THE GROWING GETS TOUGH, THE TOUGH GET GROWING RESILIENT VARIETIES FOR ANY SEASON ( 0 2 ) ( 0 2 ) HOOK:DPA0014_ACG APRIL MAY 2007 THE AUSTRALIAN COTTONGROWER 43

4 w43 FIGHT THE COST-PRICE SQUEEZE ($1227 per hectare) and cotton-wheat ($1077 per hectare) (Figure 1B). In terms of gross margin per megalitre of irrigation water, profitability was in the order of cotton-wheat-vetch ($368 per megalitre) cotton-wheat ($359 per megalitre), back-to-back cotton ($304 per megalitre) and cotton-vetch-cotton ($227 per megalitre) (Figure 1B). When cotton prices fall to $350 per bale (without including input price increases), the relative ranking of average gross margins changes and is in the order of cotton-wheatvetch ($751 per hectare), then back-to-back cotton ($673 per hectare), cotton-wheat ($633 per hectare) and cotton-vetch-cotton ($567 per hectare) (Figure 3). On the basis of the results so far, in a back-to-back cotton situation, the inclusion of vetch between cotton crops has not been profitable. This is because cotton yield in the cotton-vetch-cotton rotation was lower than that in back-to-back cotton during the first two years of the trial. TABLE 1: Comparison of water limited farm plans Cropping system Gross margins/ha A cotton-wheat rotation gives the highest gross margin when water is limited. This contrasts with previously published research which stated that cotton-vetch was more profitable than back-to-back cotton (Williams, Rochester and Constable, Area (ha) Water use (ML) Gross margin A) Cotton-cotton plan Cotton $ 1, $ 627,750 Summer fallow $ $ 95,500 Winter fallow $ $ 43,000 ML water used and Farm gross margin 3000 $ 489,250 B) Cotton-vetch-cotton plan Cotton $ $ 619,366 Summer fallow $ $ 95,500 Vetch $ $100,000 Winter fallow $ $ 21,500 ML water used and Farm gross margin 3000 $ 402,366 C) Cotton-wheat plan Cotton $ 1, $ 806,042 Summer fallow $ $ 111,544 Wheat $ $ 79,400 Winter fallow $ $ 25,800 ML water used and Farm gross margin 2996 $ 748,098 D) Cotton-wheat-vetch plan Cotton $ 2, $ 960,003 Summer fallow $ $ 111,544 Wheat $ $ 95,600 Vetch $ $ 120,000 ML water used and Farm gross margin 2996 $ 824,059 Difference between cotton-vetch-cotton and cotton-winter fallow-cotton (B-A) $ 86,884 Difference between cotton-wheat and cotton-winter fallow-cotton (C-A) $ 258,848 Difference between cotton-wheat-vetch and cotton-winter fallow-cotton (D-A) $ 334,809 Difference between cotton-wheat-vetch and cotton-wheat (D-C) $ 75,962 Difference between cotton-wheat and cotton-vetch-cotton (C-B) $ 345,732 Difference between cotton-wheat-vetch and cotton-vetch-cotton (D-B) $ 421, ). But the addition of vetch to a cotton-wheat rotation has been profitable in this trial, similar to the results of the previous research. This experiment so far has shown advantages to adding vetch into a cottonwheat system. The average cotton yield in a cotton-wheat rotation when vetch is added to the rotation has been 9.9 bales per hectare, compared to 9.2 bales per hectare for a cotton-wheat system with no vetch. As we outlined in a recent Australian Cottongrower article (Vol. 27 (5), pp ) cotton-wheat rotations are likely to be more profitable and efficient with respect to irrigation water use, but can also improve soil quality. Impact of price changes When the fuel and fertiliser price changes mentioned previously were applied, the relative profitability of the rotations changed similarly (Figure 3). The rotations with a higher frequency of cotton crops (back-to-back cotton, cotton-vetch) gave better returns with a higher cotton price. But with a lower cotton price relative to wheat, the cotton-wheat and cotton-wheat-vetch become more profitable per hectare. The cotton-wheat and cottonwheat-vetch rotations are also less sensitive to falling cotton prices due to lower overall costs. Whole-farm impact rotations and reduced water availability In recent times water has been the limiting factor on total area on-farm under irrigation, rather than land. The average gross margin results reported here show what happened in the experiments where 44 THE AUSTRALIAN COTTONGROWER APRIL MAY 2007

5 the same system was used in the same field over time, but growers need to consider the whole-farm impacts of these rotations also. Back-to-back cotton is a one year cycle of cotton-winter fallow, whereas cotton-wheat is in fact a two year rotation of cotton-wheat-summer fallow-winter fallow. If water is limited, growers may have fields out of synchrony, allowing a cotton crop following a wheat-fallow every year though in a different field. For example, we can apply the average yield results for the experiment on rotations on permanent beds (Experiment B) to a farm of 1000 hectares. Assuming the annual water allocation for the farm of 6000 megalitres (enough for 1000 hectares of cotton at an average of six megalitres per hectare and assuming that average summer rainfall is received) the comparative farm plans would be: For back-to-back cotton, 1000 hectares of cotton in summer and 1000 hectares of fallow in winter (total water required 6000 megalitres per year); For cotton-vetch-cotton, 1000 hectares of cotton in summer and 1000 hectares of vetch in winter; For cotton-wheat, the normal farm plan would be 500 hectares cotton and 500 hectares wheat stubble fallow in summer, and 500 hectares wheat and 500 hectares pre-cotton fallow in winter (water required 3625 ML per year with wheat using 1.25 ML per hectare); and, For cotton-wheat-vetch, the normal farm plan would have 500 hectares precotton vetch in winter instead of fallow, (requiring 4155 megalitres per year if the vetch received one megalitre per hectare as in the experiment). Assuming the annual water allocation is cut by 50 per cent for whatever reason to 3000 megalitres per year. This leaves the back-to-back cotton and cotton-vetchcotton plans with only enough water for 500 hectares of cotton (50 per cent of the area). For the cotton-wheat plan, allowing six megalitres per hectare for the cotton and 1.25 megalitres per hectare for the wheat (these were the average amounts used during the experiment so far), 3000 megalitres is enough for 416 hectares of cotton and 400 hectares of wheat so the cotton-wheat or cotton-wheat-vetch plan can still carry on with some reduced areas. The average crop yields and in-crop costs from the experiment have been used to calculate the example, with $43 per hectare for winter fallow costs and $191 per hectare for summer fallow costs. Using the average yields and costs from the trial and $400 per bale for cotton and $150 per tonne for wheat, cotton-wheat has the advantage over both continuous cotton systems (back-to-back cotton and cotton-vetch-cotton) in this water-limited situation, but cotton-wheat-vetch in turn has an advantage over cotton-wheat (Table 1). Cotton-vetch-cotton is, however, less profitable than back-to-back cotton. In the experiment, the vetch received one megalitre per hectare irrigation, but for this reduced allocation example we have assumed that the water is allocated between the cotton and wheat component only. When water is not limiting, in absolute financial terms back-to-back cotton will generate the higher total farm gross margin, but with declining soil fertility, crop health and cotton yields per hectare over the longer term. Also, a cotton-wheat rotation uses less water over the same area than a back-to-back cotton rotation, freeing up water to be carried over to following seasons or able to be sold under temporary seasonal transfers, where such arrangements are possible. But financial comparison of rotations can be an involved issue, especially since it is likely that machinery needs, labour In brief... needs and infrastructure maintenance and therefore overhead costs, will be different. Gross margins cannot indicate these differences and whole farm budgets for the individual circumstances are more useful when comparing different rotations that will involve overhead costs. Conclusions The cotton-wheat systems, at all times, return higher average gross margins per megalitre of irrigation water than backto-back cotton. At the same time, when cotton prices fall and fuel and nitrogen fertiliser costs increase, gross margins per hectare and gross margins per megalitre of irrigation water are higher in rotation systems which include a wheat crop, especially the wheat-vetch systems. In other words, the profitability of cotton-rotation crop sequences such as cotton-wheat, where cotton is not sown in the same field every year, are more resilient to fluctuations in the price of cotton lint, fuel and nitrogen fertiliser. The addition of vetch to the cottonwheat system has improved average cotton yields and profitability in the experiment. Growers should evaluate the whole-farm implications of rotations when choosing between them to make sure they meet business goals. We compared permanent beds against conventional tillage, and a range of rotation options including: Cotton-winter fallow-cotton (back-to-back cotton); Cotton-vetch-cotton; Cotton-wheat-fallow-cotton;and, Cotton-wheat-fallow-vetch-cotton in terms of profitability per hectare and per megalitre of water. We also evaluated the effect of decreased prices and increased costs. Two main scenarios are envisaged: (i) Where there is sufficient irrigation water and rainfall to fully irrigate all fields; and, (ii) Where there is insufficient water to water all fields e.g. due to limited or reduced allocation. We found that: Permanent beds were more profitable than conventional tillage due to increased yields. If water is not limiting, then on a field basis, the back-to-back cotton systems are more profitable, though less water efficient, and yields show a general decline over time, mainly because of a higher incidence of seedling diseases and soil structural decline. If water is not limiting, then on a field basis, the cotton-wheat-fallow-vetch-cotton systems are less sensitive to lower prices or increased costs, making them more profitable. Similarly, cotton-wheat-fallow-cotton permanent bed systems were more profitable than cotton-fallow-cotton whether conventionally tilled or on permanent beds Where water is limiting, and growers are unable to plant their total area, the rotations become much more profitable than back to back systems as the yield of cotton after a rotation of wheat or wheat-vetch is higher than in back to back systems. For instance, on a 1000 ha farm with 50 per cent water allocation a rotation system which includes wheat can increase profits by between 50 and 70 per cent. Suitable rotations offer a means of buffering against reduced prices, increased costs and limited water as well as improving soil structure. APRIL MAY 2007 THE AUSTRALIAN COTTONGROWER 45

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