Tapping the Market: Opportunities for Domestic Investment in Water and Sanitation for the Poor

Transcription

1 @WSPWorldBank Tapping the Market: Opportunities for Domestic Investment in Water and Sanitation for the Poor Crawford School of Public Policy September Bob Warner Jae So 09/11/2013

2 A market out of exclusion 2.5 billion people lack access to improved sanitation 780 million people lack access to water supply EA Sanitation Water supply LAC NA SSA ME SAR 170 1,005 1, E. Asia 484 SE.ASIA SE. Asia Oceania 4 4 Source: JMP, 2012 Slide 2

3 World Bank Group Goals 1. End extreme poverty by Boost shared prosperity for the bottom 40% Slide 3

4 WSP s Mission Leveraging Global Knowledge and Country Presence Support poverty reduction by helping countries and their people achieve sustainable access to water and sanitation and safe hygiene practices SIX BUSINESS LINES 1. Scaling Up Rural Sanitation and Hygiene 2. Creating Sustainable Services through Domestic Private Sector Participation 3. Targeting the Urban Poor and Improving Services in Small Towns 4. Mitigating and Adapting WSS Delivery to Climate Change Impacts 5. Supporting Poor-Inclusive WSS Sector Reform 6. Delivering WSS Services in Fragile States Bolivia Honduras Nicaragua Peru Benin Burkina Faso DR Congo Ethiopia Kenya Mozambique Niger Senegal Tanzania Uganda Zambia Bangladesh India Pakistan Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Philippines Vietnam Slide 4

5 The study - questions We set out to understand what constrains more private supply to the poor Questions: 1. Is investment constrained by low market potential and a lack of demand? 2. or, Are firms not viable and their business models poorly adapted to take advantage of the market opportunity? 3. and, How does investment climate affect the costs and perceived risks of firms? Commercial Factors Costs Perceived Risks Investment Climate Factors Firm s Investment Decision Slide 5

6 Introduction to the study Approach Findings Market potential Water Demand, supply, investment climate issues Sanitation Demand, supply, investment climate issues Slide 6

7 The study approach Six countries, seven country studies Rural piped water schemes Bangladesh Benin Cambodia On-site sanitation Bangladesh Indonesia Peru Tanzania Instruments Water Customer focus groups (1,100 people) Enterprise surveys (89 firms) Supply chain reviews Country policy & regulatory analysis Sanitation Customer focus groups (682 people) Enterprise surveys (109 firms) Supply chain reviews Country policy & regulatory analysis Slide 7

8 Market Potential - On-site Sanitation As yet untapped market is $2.5 billion: with replacement worth $500 million a year BGD:$452 million; 80% poor INO: $1.7 billion; 11% poor TNZ: $240 million; 30% poor PER: $155 million; 40% poor In 4 study countries, present sales are estimated at $ 300 million per year Market drivers Rising incomes and falling poverty Urbanization Slide 8 8

9 Market Potential - Piped Water Market Potential Piped Water Present market supplied by private sector is large and projected to increase Country Specific Market Drivers BGD: Water Quality Issues BEN: Public Investment in Systems for Lease CAM: Demand, Service Gap In 3 study countries projected revenues in current systems will expand to $90 million annually by piped water schemes, 30% of total, privately operated: approx. 500,000 people In addition to 200,000 using 75 piped schemes, + 60 M supplied through hand pump supply chains 1.4 M people rely on 370 piped schemes: outside Phnom Penh, private operators provide 60% of piped connections Slide 9 9

10 Lack of sanitation has serious consequences for generations Sanitation affects stunting Open defecation can statistically account for all of the India- Africa height gap Piped Water Sanitation alone explains 54% of international variation in child height GDP only explains 29% Height predicts adult cognitive achievement and productivity India Source: Each data point is a collapsed DHS survey round (country-year),proportional to population. Spears (2012) Slide 10

11 Demand Demand for network water is price sensitive Competition from other sources Households prefer a private connection, and will pay for them if prices are reasonable Convenience, and longer availability is valued Ability to pay water tariffs is not an issue except for the extreme poor Slide 11

12 Business model Three distinct models Benin public investment and ownership, private operation, standpipes, volumetric charging, regulated tariffs Cambodia private investment, private operation, private metered connections, volumetric pricing Bangladesh co-investment, private or NGO operation, private un-metered connections, flat monthly fee BGD BEN CAM Flat rates and no metering System design capacity large (over design) System quality not optimal, but low cost & low depreciation High uncontrolled consumption Fixed fees based on design capacity O&M practice sub-optimal Total cost of operations goes up High levels of depreciation Energy cost high, low labor cost High O&M cost, flat revenues High cost hurdle per unit volume sold Strong revenue managemen t Poor system maintenanc e & reliability High price, low consumption Offsetting effects Poor profitability Low revenues, leading to poor profitability Positive profitability Firm profitability is underpinned by costrevenue structure that is determined by government policy and practice Slide 12

13 Investment Climate Policy matters, since it shapes the opportunities available to the private sector Access to finance and financial sector lending practices are a constraint to investment Energy cost and reliability is a major issue No. of mentions as moderate to severe obstacle Transport Telcomms Electricity O&M, 16% Energy 39% Energy Costs are Large BEN O&M, 14% Energy, 39% Labor, 45% BGD Labor, 47% Rent, 5% O&M, 13% CAM Labor, 17% Energy, 65% Slide 13

14 Factors affecting expanded private sector supply Profitability is the key to sustainability Right sizing if public sector builds Private connections Appropriate pricing Affordability best pursued by helping poor people connect, not by suppressing prices or forcing nonpreferred solutions Energy supply and pricing a priority Facilitating access to finance Slide 14

15 Sanitation

16 Demand Sanitation is low in the expenditure priority of households, often cited last in the list. Priority 10 th out of 10 8 th out of h out of 6 Income is not a reliable predictor of use of improved sanitation, and having improved sanitation does not mean the person is satisfied Non-poor 17m use unimproved 39m defecate in open Many poor households can pay if the product appeals and costs can be spread over time $55 average spend/year on mobile phone vs $30 average cost of a hygienic pit latrine Slide 16

17 Demand The problem seems to be that households do not find the readily available and affordable hygienic sanitation solutions to be very appealing Slide 17

18 Business Model Except in Peru, most firms found catering to the poor are micro-firms with small investments and low turnover Distribution of Firms Surveyed by Size and Investment 19% 7% 11% 63% Micro < 5 Small <20 Medium < 100 Large > 100 Investments Unit Bangladesh Indonesia Peru Tanzania Reports no Minimum investment $ Only in Indonesia did a majority of surveyed enterprises see sanitation as their main line of business Only between 50% (BGD) and 20% (INO) of firms spent on marketing; many relied on word of mouth and public programs Maximum investment $ Mean investment $ Slide 18

19 Technology The prevailing technology is very simple and non-proprietary: not readily susceptible to consumer oriented marketing 70s technology developed for artisanal production Not amenable to mass production and distribution, nor to branding or coordinated marketing Limited scope to reduce prices to increase sales: cement, steel, sand are the main components of costs Slide 19 19

20 Supply chain Supply chain structure poses significant constraints to articulating a sanitation value proposition for the poor. Requires a lot of coordination by the household who may not have the appropriate information. The Bundle The poor looked to a bundle of service that includes: Aspirational product Turnkey solutions including the collection of sludge Lay away support Warranty Better buying experience from credible sellers offering options Supply Barriers Fragmented agents manufacturing or supplying one or more general component No commercial support between vertical agents Inputs pass between agents for whom sanitation is a small part of business Availability and price of materials driven by general construction business Slide 20

21 Investment Climate The impact of current policies is limited neither hindering nor promoting private investments National sanitation policies tend do little with regard to private provision of on-site sanitation Most sanitation enterprises fly under the radar of business regulation Transport emerges as the most severe obstacle to their business Slide 21

22 Constraints lie in weak supply chains and current technologies No agent invests in research, development and marketing No vertical and horizontal integration High embedded cost of transport Results in high costs of coordination for poor households Lack of affirmative policy towards private provision may be acting as a hurdle to engagement of enterprises with capacity to come to grips with these problems Slide 22

23 blogs.worldbank.org/water