Toronto in a National Context May 20, 2015

Transcription

1 Toronto in a National Context May 20, 2015 Presented by: Ross Moore, Director of Research Presented to: Toronto Economic Development and Culture CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage

2 3mma % change CANADIAN LABOUR MARKET 3.00% Recovering Growing/Accelerating 2.00% Toronto Winnipeg Calgary 1.00% Edmonton Montréal 0.00% Ottawa London -1.00% Vancouver -2.00% Halifax Contracting K-C-W Slowing -3.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% y/y % change Source: Statistics Canada, April CB Richard Ellis Page 2 2

3 Annual GDP growth (%) GDP GROWTH BY CMA 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% F 2016 F F 2016 F F 2016 F F 2016 F F 2016 F F 2016 F Vancouver Calgary GTA Ottawa Montreal Canada GDP at Basic Prices by Industry - All Industries (Annualized) F = Forecasted Source: Conference Board of Canada, March 31, F 2016 F CB Richard Ellis Page 3 3

4 OFFICE CBRE Limited

5 CANADA OFFICE SPACE DISTRIBUTION Source: CBRE Limited Updated: Q CB Richard Ellis Page 5 5

6 DOWNTOWN OFFICE RENTS ADDITIONAL RENTS VS. NET ASKING RENTS $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Winnipeg London Waterloo Region Additional Rent ($/sq. ft./annum) Source: CBRE Limited, Q Toronto Ottawa Montreal Halifax National Net Asking Rent ($/sq. ft./annum) CB Richard Ellis Page 6 6

7 OFFICE MARKETS Q YoY Vacancy Change (bps) Vacancy Rate (%) % % 100 5% 0 0% % % -300 Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Winnipeg London Waterloo Toronto Ottawa Montreal Halifax National Vacancy Change (bps) YoY growth Overall Vacancy Rate Q % Source: CBRE Limited, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 7 7

8 DOWNTOWN OFFICE DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE SF (Millions) 7 % Of Inventory 14% % 12% % 9.9% Balanced 10% 8% 3 6% % 2.9% 3.2% 4% 2% 0 Calgary Toronto Vancouver Edmonton Montreal Halifax Under Construction (L) Anticipated Construction (L) Construction as a % of Inventory (R) Source: CBRE Research, Q % CB Richard Ellis Page 8 8

9 DOWNTOWN TORONTO OFFICE New Developments MaRS Discovery District 661 UNIVERSITY AVENUE Oxford Properties GWL Realty Advisors Allied Properties REIT Brookfield Properties HOOPP & Menkes First Gulf RBC WATERPARK PLACE BREMNER TOWER QRC WEST 134 PETER STREET BAY ADELAIDE CENTRE EAST ONE YORK STREET GLOBE & MAIL CENTRE Oxford Properties Group EY TOWER Office Size (sq. ft.) 740, , , ,581 1,017, , , ,720 Retail Size (sq. ft.) 30, ,000 29,889 13,637 8, ,000 18,000 0 Floors Floor Plate (sq. ft.) 27,398 30,835 26,500 25,000 23,604 23,000 27,692 27,000 43,500 23,000 Completion December 2013 October 2014 November 2014 May 2015 Q Q Q Q Tenant Ontario Institute for Cancer Research (78,000 sq. ft.) Public Health Ontario (160,000 sq. ft.) MaRS (120,000 sq. ft.) Sigma Analysis & Management (2,500 sq. ft.) Synaptive Ryerson University (1/2 Floor) University Health Network (3 Floors) University of Toronto (4 floors) Undisclosed tenant Royal Bank of Canada (631,000 sq. ft.) Cisco (100,000 sq. ft.) CNW Group (22,000 sq. ft.) Regus (27,000 sq. ft.) Marsh & McLennan (257,000 sq. ft.) SNC-Lavalin (75,000 sq. ft.) Apple (50,000 sq. ft.) AIG (57,000 sq. ft.) Amazon (126,000 sq. ft.) Teknion (12,307 sq. ft.) Sapient Corporation (60,000 sq. ft.) Entertainment One (79,000 sq. ft.) Diageo (11,000 sq. ft.) Wirtz Beverage Canada Inc. (5,500 sq. ft.) Givex (15,000 sq. ft.) Deloitte (419,000 sq. ft.) Borden Ladner Gervais (166,000 sq. ft.) Gardiner Roberts (46,000 sq. ft.) Bell (46,000 sq. ft.) HOOPP (160,000 sq. ft.) Sun Life Financial (281,000 sq. ft.) Target (retail 145,000 sq. ft.) Globe & Mail (130,000 sq. ft.) AIR MILES LoyaltyOne (175,000 sq. ft.) Yellow Pages (112,000 sq. ft.) EY (255,000 sq. ft.) TMX Group (157,000 sq. ft.) OMERS (370,000 sq. ft.) COMPLETED 2,325,103 sq. ft. UNDER CONSTRUCTION 3,465,485 sq. ft. Source: CBRE Research CB Richard Ellis Page 9 9

10 HOW DOES THIS OFFICE SUPPLY CYCLE COMPARE TO PREVIOUS ONES? 45 5 Year % Change in Office Stock Calgary Edmonton Halifax Montreal Ottawa Sum of Markets Toronto Vancouver Winnipeg (Forecast) Source: CBRE EA Canada Office Outlook, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 10 10

11 TORONTO DOWNTOWN Class A Major Building Ownership and Management* Brookfield/Cadillac Fairview/Oxford control 53% of Existing Class A space EXISTING CLASS A BUILDINGS TOTAL RENTABLE AREA 41.7 MILLION sq. ft. Cadillac Fairview 8.4 Million sq. ft. Brookfield Properties 8.3 Million sq. ft. Oxford Properties 8.1 Million sq. ft. GWL Realty Advisors 4.0 Million sq. ft. Dream Unlimited 3.3 Million sq. ft. Bentall Kennedy 2.3 Million sq. ft. H&R REIT 1.9 Million sq. ft. * Including new developments Source: CBRE, CB Richard Ellis Page 11 11

12 INDUSTRIAL CBRE Limited

13 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SPACE DISTRIBUTION Source: CBRE Limited Updated: Q1 201 CB Richard Ellis Page 13 13

14 Market as a % of National ENERGY MARKETS PUNCH ABOVE THEIR WEIGHT WITH RESPECT TO NEW CONSTRUCTION 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Winnipeg London Waterloo Region Toronto Ottawa Montreal Halifax Market Stock as a % of National Stock Market Construction as a % of National Construction Source: CBRE Research, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 14 14

15 INDUSTRIAL AVAILABILITY RATE Q % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Winnipeg London Waterloo Region Q Source: CBRE Limited, Q Toronto Ottawa Montreal Halifax National 10-Yr Avg CB Richard Ellis Page 15 15

16 MULTIFAMILY CBRE Limited

17 Total Migration IMMIGRATION: THE SILENT STIMULUS 125,000 Forecast 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 Vancouver Calgary Toronto Montreal Source: Conference Board of Canada, 2014 CB Richard Ellis Page 17 17

18 Indexed to Jan 2005 CANADIAN HOUSING MARKET HOUSE PRICE INDEX Vancouver Calgary Toronto Montreal Source: Brookfield RPS House Price Index Jan CB Richard Ellis Page 18 18

19 AFFORDABILITY GAP CONTINUES TO WIDEN 300 Indexed to Avg. Home Price Avg. 2-BR Monthly Rent Income Per Capita Source: CREA, CMHC, CBoC, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 19 19

20 PURPOSE BUILT RENTAL CONSTRUCTION 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Units Started % of Inventory MTL VAN TOR EDM CAL OTT 2014 Starts Avg Starts ( ) % of Inventory % 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: CMHC, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 20 20

21 CANADIAN APARTMENT STARTS BY TYPE 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% CAL TOR MTL VAN OTT EDM Condominium Rental Source: CMHC, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 21 21

22 Urban* vs suburban Population Change 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Vancouver Calgary Toronto Montreal Ottawa Pop Change Urban Pop Change Suburban * Urban defined as a 2 km radius from city centre. Source: 2014 Environics Analytics CB Richard Ellis Page 22

23 Ages 20 to 34 yrs as % of urban/suburban population Ages 20 to 34 yrs as % of urban/suburban population DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE: PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION (AGES YRS) 35.0% % 30.0% 31.6% 30.9% 31.7% 31.8% 35.0% 33.9% 25.0% 30.0% 31.1% 30.0% 31.1% 20.0% 15.0% 21.8% 22.6% 21.5% 20.2% Urban Suburban 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 19.2% 21.5% 20.1% 19.1% Urban Suburban 10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% Vancouver Calgary Toronto Montreal 0.0% Vancouver Calgary Toronto Montreal Source: Statistics Canada and Environics, CB Richard Ellis Page 23 23

24 For more information, please contact: Ross Moore Director of Research, Canada CB Richard Ellis Page 24

25 DOWNTOWN MONTREAL OFFICE UNDER CONSTRUCTION Address Tour AIMIA Tour Deloitte L'Avenue Desjardins 450 De Maisonneuve Ouest Tour Manuvie 900 De Maisonneuve Ouest Class A A A A A Size (SF) 234, ,067 81, ,000 (Expansion) 462,400 Floors Delivery date Q Q Q Q Q Status Delivered Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Lead Tenant AIMIA Deloitte, Rio Tinto None Desjardins (275,000 SF) Manulife Source: CBRE Research, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 25 25

26 DOWNTOWN CALGARY OFFICE New Developments, City Centre Eau Claire Tower Brookfield Place East Tower Developer Cadillac Fairview Oxford Properties Brookfield Properties Manulife 707 Fifth Street TELUS Sky TELUS/Allied/ Westbank Size 820,000 SF 615,000 SF 1,400,000 SF 564,000 SF 430,000 SF % Pre-Leased 81.0% 77.0% 71.0% 44.3% 36.1% Occupancy Q Q Q Q Q Source: CBRE Research, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 26 26

27 EDMONTON OFFICE UPCOMING DEVELOPMENTS Federal Building Kelly-Ramsey Building EAD Tower Stantec Tower Enbridge RFP SIZE (SQ FT) 247, , , , ,000 COMPLETION Q Q Q Q Proposed % PRE-LEASED 100% 82% 73% 75% TBD Source: CBRE Research, Q CB Richard Ellis Page 27 27

28 New Supply & Absorption (000 s sq. ft.) Vacancy (%) DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER OFFICE SUPPLY AND DEMAND (ALL CLASSES) 1,600 1, (400) (800) DEVELOPMENT CYCLE LIMITED SUPPLY NEW BUILD CYCLE F 2016 F 2017F 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% (2%) (4%) (6%) (8%) Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy NEW OFFICE SUPPLY Source: CBRE Research, 89 W GEORGIA 105,000 SF MNP TOWER 270,000 SF 725 GRANVILLE 300,000 SF TELUS GARDEN 448,000 SF 980 HOWE 250,000 SF 745 THURLOW 365,000 SF THE EXCHANGE 369,000 SF CB Richard Ellis Page 28 28