Daily Calls July 8, 2015

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1 Daily Calls July 8, 2015 Market Outlook Sensex Daily Candlestick Chart We said, "Bias is positive as long as the index forms a Bull candle with a higher high-low. Otherwise it will not." The index did hold a higher high low but failing to form as a Bull candle, it settled flat, a marginal 37 points or 0.1% lower. Tea, paint stocks shot up on a fall in crude but other sectors ended flat. Broader market gains kept the A/D ratio positive. The action formed a High Wave (HW), indicating the index turning volatile at higher levels after registering a hefty gain on the previous day. For the bias to remain positive, the index needs to hold the HW's low on a closing basis. Weakness and close of the HW can halt the rally, perhaps only temporarily, and test the grey/green lines supporting the rally. Recommendations for the day Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research Scrip IDirectCode I-Direct Action Target Stoploss NIFTY NIFTY Sell in the range of / Asian Paints ASIPAI Buy in the range of / Vedanta SESGOA Sell below / * All recommendations are for current month futures 1

2 Sell Nifty July Future in the range of Target: 8480/8460 Stop loss: 8535 Deal Team At Your Service Nifty Technical Picture (Spot) Nifty Intraday Short Term Trend Down Up Trend Reversal Support Resistance Days EMA days EMA 8217 Nifty Future Daily Candlestick Chart Nifty Future Recommendation CMP : Comment : Action : Future premium decreased from 16 points to 6. High Wave suggests hesitation after hefty gains on Monday.Reverse if holds 8450 or 8425 Sell in the range of Targets : 8480/8460 Stop-loss Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research 2

3 Gladiator Stock Recommendation Stocks Buy Asian Paints July Future in the range of Target: / Stop loss: CMP Falling channel breakout with a gap up price action supports the positive trend in price Comment Falling channel breakout with a gap : up price action and MACD in rising trend in daily chart Action : Buy in the range of Targets : / MACD in rising trajectory signalling continuation of positive momentum Stop-loss Sell Vedanta July future below Target: / Stop loss: CMP Comment : Action : Price remains in downtrend forming lower top and lower bottom and RSI in sell mode Sell below Price remains in downtrend forming lower top and lower bottom signals further downsides in coming sessions Targets : / Stop-loss RSI below its 9 period average suggesting continuation of downward momentum Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 3

4 Market Activity Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields Spot Close Prev.close % Chg Rupee ( ) Dollar Index Euro British Pound Japanese Yen Australian ($) Swiss Franc Closing Yield (%) Previous Yield (%) India 10 year US 10 Year EURO 10 Year GBP 10 Year JPY 10 Year Close Prev. Close %Chg Gold/ounce Copper /ton Brent Crude/barrel Institutional Activity Cash Segment ( Cr) FII DII 7Jul15 7-Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Domestic Indices Global Indices Indices Close Change Change% S&P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty Nifty future S&PBSE S&PBSE Midcap S&PBSE Smallcap Nifty Heat Map Asian Paints Tech M. Dr Reddy Bajaj Auto IDEA Infosys HUL TCS ONGC Hindalco Indices Close Change Change% Dow Jones Nasdaq FTSE DAX Hang Seng Nikkei SGX Nifty * Asian Market as at 7:30am Coal ,161.5 United 3,500.9 HDFC 1,337.3 Ultratech 5.2% India 2.2% 1.9% Spirits 1.9% Ltd 1.5% Sun PNB SBI Wipro 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% Pharma 0.7% 0.7% 3, Grasim 3,573.4 Axis Bank of IDFC 0.6% 0.5% Ind 0.4% Bank 0.3% Baroda 0.3% 2,603.7 HDFC 1, Tata BPCL NMDC 0.3% Bank 0.3% 0.2% Motors 0.1% 0.1% Ambuja Indusind ,811.4 Tata L&T 0.1% Cement 0.0% Bank 0.0% -0.3% Steel -0.3% Bharti , M&M 1,317.8 ACC ITC -0.3% Airtel -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% , ,908.4 BHEL Maruti GAIL Lupin -0.3% -0.4% -0.4% -0.5% -0.5% 2,616.3 ICICI Yes Tata 73.8 Power % Bank -0.8% Bank -0.9% power -0.9% Grid -1.0% ,003.3 Kotak Cairn Cipla RIL -1.1% -1.1% -1.2% Bank -1.3% India -1.5% Hero 2, Vedanta HCL NTPC -1.7% Moto -1.9% -2.6% Ltd -3.0% Tech -3.5% Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 4

5 Trend Scanner Deal Team At Your Service Positive Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Bata India Ltd Coal India Ltd Pidilite Industries Ltd Ultratech Cement Ltd Negative Trends Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%) Hindalco Industries Ltd NTPC Ltd Cairn India Ltd Candlestick Pattern Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP FM Goetze Engulfing Bull Tata Power Dark Cloud Cover 73.9 Pidilite Belt Hold line Hero Motocorp Dark Cloud Cover Ultratech Cement Continuation Vedanta Continuation Coal India Continuation Hindalco Continuation Asian Paints Continuation Bata India Continuation Overbought Stocks Oversold Stocks Scrip Name LTP Scrip Name LTP ACC GAIL ZEE Entertainment Hind Zinc Market Breadth BSE NSE Stocks hitting 52 week high Stocks hitting 52 week low 39% 4% 57% 38% 3% 59% Scrip Name LTP Scrip Name LTP Coal India Hindalco Cummins India Vedanta HPCL SRF 1326 Vadilal Industries Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research 5

6 Previous Deal Team Day s Performance At Your Service Scrip Product Strategyt Recommended d Price Targets SL Gain/Loss %* Comment Nifty Future Buy In range of / points Target 1 Achieved Ultratech Future Buy In range of / Target 2 achieved HeroMotocorp Future Buy above / Stoploss triggered Hindalco Future Sell below / Target 1 almost achieved Stock profits: Avg 0.91% per trade (Cum. Profits over last 65 days: 98.60%) Strike Rate for the day: 2/3 (Cum strike rate over 65 days: 96/158 Nifty Points gained for the day: 35 points Gains over last 65 days: points NOTE: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary, depending di upon the entry and exit price and stop losses Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 6

7 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND SENSEX ve NIFTY ve ACC Neutral ADANI ENTER ve ADANI PORT ve ADITYA BIRLA ve AJANTA PHARMA ve ALLAHABAD BANK ve AMARA RAJA BATT Neutral AMBUJA CEMENT Neutral AMTEK AUTO ve ANDHRA BANK ve APOLLO HOSP.ENT Neutral APOLLO TYRES ve ARVIND ve ASHOK LEYLAND ve ASIAN PAINTS ve AUROBINDO PHARMA ve AXIS BANK ve BAJAJ AUTO ve BAJAJ FINANCE Neutral BOI Neutral BATA INDIA ve BHARAT ELECTRON ve BHARAT FORGE ve BPCL Neutral BHARTI AIRTEL ve BHEL Neutral BRITANNIA IND Neutral CAIRNS INDIA ve CANARA BANK Neutral CASTROL INDIA ve CEAT ve CENTURY TEXT ve CESC ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 7

8 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND CIPLA ve COAL INDIA ve CROMPTON GREAVES ve DEWAN HOUSING F ve DISH TV ve DIVI'S LAB Neutral DLF ve DR.REDDY'S LAB Neutral EXIDE IND ve FEDERAL BANK ve GAIL ve GRASIM ve HAVELL'S INDIA ve HCL TECH ve HDFC BANK ve HDFC ve HERO MOTO ve HEXAWARE TECH ve HINDALCO ve HIND. UNILEVER ve HPCL ve IBULL HSG FIN ve IDBI ve IDEA CELLULAR Neutral IDFC ve NSE IND.FIN.CORP.OF ve INDUSIND BANK ve INDIA CEMENTS ve INDRAPRASTHA GAS ve IOC Neutral IB REAL ESTATE ve INFOSYS ve IRB INFRA ve ITC Neutral Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 8

9 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND JINDAL ST&POW ve JSW ENERGY ve NSE JSW STEEL ve JUBILANT FOOD Neutral KAVERI SEEDS.COM ve KOTAK MAH.BANK ve L&T Neutral LIC HOUSING ve LUPIN Neutral M & M Neutral MARUTI SUZUKI ve MINDTREE ve M&M FIN.SERV ve MOTHERSON SUMI ve NMDC ve NSE NTPC ve OIL INDIA ve ONGC ve OBC ve PAGE INDUSTRIES ve PETRONET LNG ve PIDILITE INDUSTRIES ve POWER FINANCE ve PTC INDIA ve PNB ve RCOM ve REL. CAPITAL ve RELIANCE INFRA ve RELIANCE ve RELIANCE POWER ve REC ve SAIL ve SHRIRAM TRANS ve SIEMENS ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 9

10 Supports and Resistance Table ( Cash Levels) SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND SKS MICRO FIN Neutral SOUTH INDIAN BANK ve S.R.F ve SBI ve SUN PHARMA ve SUN TV ve SYNDICATEBANK ve TATA COMM ve TATA CHEM ve TATA MOTOR DVR ve TATA MOTORS ve TATA POWER ve TATA GLOBAL BEV ve TCS ve TECH MAHINDRA ve TATA STEEL ve TITAN IND ve TVS MOTOR ve UCO BANK ve ULTRATECH CEMENT ve UBI Neutral UNITED PHOSPH ve VOLTAS ve WIPRO ve WOCKHARDT ve YES BANK ve ZEE ve Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research 10

11 Notes Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 minutes of trade If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the recommendation is considered not initiated The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view. Trading portfolio allocation It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation 11

12 Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation Product Allocations Product wise Max allocation in allocation 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks Duration Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.5-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 Per Months 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity Based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technicals 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technnical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash 10% - 100% 12

13 Candlesticks Glossary: Deal Team At Your Service Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior session s black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next session s open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session s range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend. The next candle line--the small real body warns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has stopped or reversed Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second session s price opens over the prior session s high (or above the prior session s close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior session s white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which h suggest continuation of existing trend 13

14 Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai

15 Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries bidi i engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Nonrated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at thesametime. ICICISecuritieswillnottreat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. 15

16 Disclaimer ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged g in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. 16

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