Growth outlook revised up on robust household spending

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Growth outlook revised up on robust household spending"

Transcription

1 NZ Institute of Economic Research (Inc) Media release June Consensus Forecasts Growth outlook revised up on robust household spending The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows forecasters have revised up expectations of growth on the back of a stronger outlook for household spending. However, expectations of inflation and wage growth remain modest despite expectations of stronger activity. Expectations of stronger household spending will also boost imports. In contrast, expectations of export growth beyond next year have been revised lower. Forecasters continue to expect solid growth in investment in the next few years, reflecting an improvement in business confidence and strong population growth underpinning demand for residential construction. The labour market outlook is more favourable, with expectations of employment growth revised up slightly while unemployment forecasts have been revised slightly lower. Despite expectations of stronger employment growth, wage growth forecasts have been revised slightly lower as a result of the expanded labour supply from strong population growth. Similarly, the inflation outlook remains subdued despite stronger growth forecasts. The consensus expectation is that annual inflation will not edge back to the Reserve Bank s % midpoint target until. Figure Economic growth expected to pick up over the next two years Real GDP Growth - -

2 Stronger economic growth beyond Consensus Forecasts indicate expectations of robust economic growth through to 9. Annual average growth is expected to pick up to.9% in, before moderating to.% in 9. However, there is a large degree of uncertainty over the growth outlook beyond. In particular, annual average growth forecasts for the March 9 year range from.% to.%. Stronger household spending Expectations of household spending have been revised up through to 9. The stronger housing market, phenomenal population growth and lower interest rates have encouraged households to spend. Forecasters expect household spending growth will be even stronger over the next few years. Improved consumer confidence is boosting discretionary spending on big-ticket items and eating out. Residential growth to remain strong Expectations of residential construction remain very strong. Strong population growth is boosting housing demand, with residential construction ramping up, particularly in Auckland. Annual average growth in residential construction is expected to peak at % in the March year, before moderating in subsequent years. Some forecasters expect a decline in residential investment from. Real GDP Growth - - Real Private Consumption - - Real Residential Investment Soft global growth weighs on exports Beyond the near-term, forecasters have revised down the export outlook. The global growth outlook has weakened, with considerable downside risks to the growth outlook of some major economies, particularly China. This is expected to weigh on export growth. That said, there is a large degree of uncertainty over the extent to which export demand will be affected, particularly in the next year. Real Exports - - NZIER Consensus Forecasts

3 % Pa Annual % change Index, annual average NZD expected to moderate Forecasters expect the NZD to ease through to 9, although forecasts have been revised up for the years to. The consensus is for the NZD TWI to ease to an average of 9 by 9. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty over the exchange rate outlook. Some forecasters expect the NZD TWI to hold up at an average of close to for the year to March 9, while some expect a depreciation to just over by then. NZD TWI Inflation to lift back to target band in The inflation outlook remains subdued despite expectations of stronger activity. Low petrol prices have played a key role in weak inflation over the past year, but the majority of forecasters expect annual inflation will edge back within the Reserve Bank s -% target band by the end of this year. Forecasters however, do not expect annual inflation to reach the Reserve Bank s % mid-point target until later in. Annual Consumer Price Inflation - Interest rate expectations revised lower Beyond the near term, interest rate forecasts have been revised down through to 9. The Reserve Bank surprised markets by cutting the OCR by bp at its March Monetary Policy Statement. It has indicated further easing sometime this year is likely, given its primary focus on lifting inflation back to its % mid-point target. The consensus is for 9-day interest rates to fall to an average.% for the year to March, before lifting to.% for the year to March 9. Improved employment outlook Employment forecasts have been revised up for the years to, with expectations for the unemployment rate revised lower accordingly. However, beyond there are diverging views. Despite expectations of stronger employment demand, wage growth forecasts have been revised slightly lower. The contrast between improving activity and contained inflation remains a key feature of the economy. 9 Day Bank Bills 9 Unemployment Rate NZIER Consensus Forecasts

4 Table Previous and latest Consensus Forecasts Jun- survey Mar- survey aapc, March years / / / /9 / / / /9 GDP Private consumption Public consumption Fixed investment: Residential Other Total Exports, goods & services Imports, goods & services Consumer price index (apc) New Zealand TWI (ave yr to Mar) day bank bill (ave yr to Mar) year govt bond (ave yr to Mar) Current account balance (NZ$b; Mar yr) Employment Unemployment (% of labour force) Wages (private sector avg hourly earnings) Government operating balance (NZ$b, June yr) Note: aapc = annual average percent change, apc = annual percent change, arrows refer to direction of change from last survey Source: NZIER NZIER Consensus Forecasts

5 Table Breakdown of the forecasts qpc, quarters Mar- f Jun- f Sep- f Low Mean High Low Mean High Low Mean High GDP (seasonally adjusted, qpc) Jun- f Sep- f Dec- f CPI (qpc) aapc, March years / f / f / f /9 f Low Mean High Low Mean High Low Mean High Low Mean High GDP Private consumption Public consumption Fixed investment - Residential Other Total Exports, goods and services Imports, goods and services Consumer price index (apc) New Zealand TWI (ave yr to Mar) day bank bill (ave yr to Mar) year government stock (ave yr to Mar) Current account balance (NZ$b; Mar yr) Employment Unemployment rate (% of labour force) Wages (private sector avg hourly earnings) Government operating balance (NZ$m, June yr) Notes: aapc = annual average percent change, apc = annual percent change, qpc = quarterly percent change These results show only means; standard deviations are available on request Source: NZIER Note: qpc = quarterly percent change. NZIER Consensus Forecasts

6 Summary charts Real GDP Growth - - Real Public Consumption - Real Private Consumption - - Real Residential Investment Real Other Investment Real Total Investment Real Exports Real Imports NZIER Consensus Forecasts

7 Annual, $bn % Pa % Pa Annual % change Index, annual average Annual Consumer Price Inflation - 9 Day Bank Bills 9 Current Account Balance NZD TWI Year Government Bond Yield 9 Employment Growth - - Unemployment Rate Private Sector Wage Inflation NZIER Consensus Forecasts

8 $bn Annual % change Government Operating Balance Source: Treasury, NZIER Consumer Price Inflation - The NZIER Consensus Forecasts are an average of New Zealand economic forecasts compiled from a survey of financial and economic agencies. These are not NZIER s forecasts. The average forecasts do not necessarily represent the views of individual participants. Forecasts are for March years, e.g. refers to the year ended March. Respondents ANZ-National Bank ASB Bank Bank of New Zealand First NZ Capital New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Reserve Bank of New Zealand The Treasury Westpac For further information please contact: Christina Leung Senior Economist & Head of Membership Services 99 9 NZIER Consensus Forecasts

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast 6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Growth of Australia s major trading partners is expected to remain around its long-run average pace in 15 and 16 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts have been revised down

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast 6. Economic Outlook 6 4 0 The International Economy Overall, growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is expected to be around its long-run average pace in 015 and 016 (Graph 6.1). This forecast

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 21 July 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank The UK vote to

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade 2010/11 average = 100

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade 2010/11 average = 100 6. Economic Outlook 6 4 0 - The International Economy The Bank s forecast for overall growth of Australia s major trading partners is little changed from those in the November Statement. Year-average trading

More information

Domestic Activity. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2013/14 average = 100

Domestic Activity. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2013/14 average = 100 6. Economic Outlook 6 The International Economy The outlook for GDP growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is unchanged from the November Statement. Over the next few years, growth is expected

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2012/13 average = 100

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.2 Terms of Trade Log scale, 2012/13 average = 100 6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Growth of Australia s major trading partners is expected to be around its long-run average in 015 and 016 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for 015 have been revised

More information

HARBOUR INVESTMENT COMPASS

HARBOUR INVESTMENT COMPASS HARBOUR INVESTMENT COMPASS FIXED INTEREST MONTHLY COMMENTARY MARCH 2016 FIXED INTEREST OVERVIEW FOR THE MONTH The RBNZ surprised many local economists by cutting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis

More information

Background. Key points

Background. Key points Background Employment forecasts over the three years to March 2018 1 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority

More information

Monetary Policy Statement

Monetary Policy Statement Monetary Policy Statement June 211 1 This Statement is made pursuant to Section 15 of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Contents 1. Policy assessment 2 2. Overview and key policy judgements 3 3.

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo Delivery 19 May 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South Africa s

More information

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy

Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy Thomas Shik Acting Chief Economist thomasshik@hangseng.com Renminbi Depreciation and the Hong Kong Economy If the recent weakness of the renminbi persists, it is likely to have a positive direct impact

More information

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor

INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE. Thursday 4 th February 2016. Opening remarks by the Governor INFLATION REPORT PRESS CONFERENCE Thursday 4 th February 2016 Opening remarks by the Governor Good afternoon. At its meeting yesterday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 9-0 to maintain Bank Rate

More information

UK Macro Economic Forecast. Sample

UK Macro Economic Forecast. Sample UK Macro Economic Forecast CONTENTS 1. Summary Prospects Key Risks 2. Recent Trends PMI Services GDP % q-on-q 3. Two Year Outlook GDP % y-on-y Investment 4. Longer Term Outlook 5. Consumers Consumer spending

More information

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: September 16, 2016 Prepared by the UNL College of Business Administration, Department of Economics Authors: Dr. Eric Thompson, Dr. William Walstad Leading Economic

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY CARLY HARRISON Portland State University Following data revisions, the economy continues to grow steadily, but slowly, in line with expectations. Gross domestic product has increased,

More information

Asda Income Tracker. Report: April 2016 Released: May Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd

Asda Income Tracker. Report: April 2016 Released: May Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Asda Income Tracker Report: April 2016 Released: May 2016 M a k i n g B u s i n e s s S e n s e Centre for Economics and Business Research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t 020 7324 2850 w www.cebr.com

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Lynn Fisher, Mike Fratantoni, Joel Kan Stronger Data Lead to Upward Revisions in Purchase Originations Forecast for 2015 and 2016 MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: July

More information

1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006

1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006 1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006 Economic Policy Department June 2015 Probability (Per Cent) 2 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2015 The June 2015 Survey was sent out

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast 6. Economic Outlook 6 4 0 - The International Economy Overall growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTP) is expected to be around its long-run average in 014 and 015 (Graph 6.1). This forecast

More information

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6

percentage points to the overall CPI outcome. Goods price inflation increased to 4,6 South African Reserve Bank Press Statement Embargo on Delivery 28 January 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the

More information

Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 13 september 2012

Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies. Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 13 september 2012 Outlook for the Norwegian and global economies Deputy Governor Jan F. Qvigstad 3 september Market uncertainty still high Yields on -year government bonds. Percent 8 8 US Germany UK Spain Italy Jan- Jul-

More information

Consumer Sentiment Indicators and the Economic Outlook

Consumer Sentiment Indicators and the Economic Outlook Consumer Sentiment Indicators and the Economic Outlook July 2014 Key Points: Consumer confidence fell sharply after federal Budget 2014/15 and there are concerns about the budgets implications for economic

More information

Economic indicators dashboard

Economic indicators dashboard AS OF NOVEMBER 17, 2015 Economic indicators dashboard Vist www.blog.helpingadvisors.com for the full commentary of the Economic Indicators Dashboard. MOST RECENT 3-MO. trend TYPICAL range EXTREME range

More information

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ADAM SEIDMAN Portland State University In its latest report, the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis noted that full employment is finally within sight in Oregon. Indeed, 2015 saw

More information

The Westpac Group third quarter 2011 sound core earnings growth

The Westpac Group third quarter 2011 sound core earnings growth Media Release 16 August 2011 The Westpac Group third quarter 2011 sound core earnings growth Third quarter 2011 highlights (compared to results for the average of 1Q and 2Q 2011) 1 Cash earnings of approximately

More information

Economic Outlook. Annual avg % change 8. DEFU BEFU 1990s the world environment is still not expected to be particularly strong.

Economic Outlook. Annual avg % change 8. DEFU BEFU 1990s the world environment is still not expected to be particularly strong. 1 Economic Outlook Overview Following a slight contraction in 1998/99, the economy is expected to grow steadily over the forecast period. Growth is expected to be.9% in 1999/, 3.5% in /1, and 3.% in 1/.

More information

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska

Leading Economic Indicator Nebraska Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: May 20, 2016 Prepared by the UNL College of Business Administration, Department of Economics Authors: Dr. Eric Thompson, Dr. William Walstad Leading Economic Indicator...1

More information

Regional Economic Development Business Intelligence Report: Winter 2016 1

Regional Economic Development Business Intelligence Report: Winter 2016 1 The Economy in Summary Regional Economic Development Business Intelligence Report: Winter 2016 1 Faced with severe global uncertainties, the UK economy has lost momentum. In the final quarter of 2015,

More information

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111

Introduction B.2 & B.3 111 Risks and Scenarios Introduction The forecasts presented in the Economic and Tax Outlook chapter incorporate a number of judgements about how both the New Zealand and the world economies evolve. Some judgements

More information

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast

6. Economic Outlook. The International Economy. Graph 6.1 Australia s Trading Partner Growth* Year-average RBA forecast 6. Economic Outlook The International Economy Overall, growth of Australia s major trading partners (MTPs) is expected to be a bit above its long-run average in 014 and 015 (Graph 6.1). Forecasts for most

More information

2000-01 in review: housing leads a temporary slowdown in Australian economic growth

2000-01 in review: housing leads a temporary slowdown in Australian economic growth 2000-01 in review: housing leads a temporary slowdown in Australian economic growth After three years of very strong growth, the Australian economy experienced a slowdown in the second half of 2000, before

More information

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation

Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation August 2014 Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact

More information

Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook

Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook Pentti Hakkarainen: Bank of Finland and its activities and the Finnish economic outlook Speech by Mr Pentti Hakkarainen, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the Honorary Consulars meeting, Helsinki,

More information

Monetary Policy Statement

Monetary Policy Statement Monetary Policy Statement March 7 1 This Statement is made pursuant to Section 1 of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 199. Contents 1. Policy assessment. Overview and key policy judgements 3 3. The recent

More information

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank

South African Reserve Bank. Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 17 March 2016 Statement of the Monetary Policy Committee Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous

More information

Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor

Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Czech Economic Outlook and Prospects for the Exchange Rate Floor Vladimir Tomsik Vice-Governor Czech National Bank Small Talks Symposium 9 October 2015 Investor Seminar 10 October 2015 IMF/WB Annual Meeting

More information

Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015

Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015 Hungary s GDP growth among EU top five in Q1 2015 According to seasonally adjusted GDP data published in the latest Eurostat flash report, in Q1 2015 gross domestic product grew by 0.4 percent in the Euro-zone

More information

Australian Dollar Outlook

Australian Dollar Outlook Tuesday, 18 January 2016 Australian Dollar Outlook Still a Slippery Slope The Australian dollar slid sharply over the first couple of weeks of this year, and hit new sevenyear lows. Risk aversion once

More information

Outlook for Australian Property Markets Sydney

Outlook for Australian Property Markets Sydney Outlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012 Sydney Outlook for Australian Property Markets 2010-2012 Sydney Residential Stimulus and the confidence drives recovery Finance commitments to buy or construct

More information

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia

Project LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University

More information

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015

Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Forex and Interest Rate Outlook 26th August 2015 Moderate recovery continues in advanced economies, but a weakening of activity in emerging economies is adding to global deflationary pressures Further

More information

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 16 March 2016

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 16 March 2016 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 16 March 2016 Publication date: 17 March 2016 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending

More information

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN 20 AUGUST 2014

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN 20 AUGUST 2014 THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN AUGUST 1 Global growth GDP growth in different regions for 1. Percent. IMF projections Sources: IMF and Norges Bank Russia: Lower growth prospects and sanctions

More information

Strategy Document 1/03

Strategy Document 1/03 Strategy Document / Monetary policy in the period 5 March to 5 June Discussed by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 February. Approved by the Executive Board at its meeting of 5 March Background Norges

More information

Economic indicators dashboard

Economic indicators dashboard CURRENT AS OF APRIL 30, 2014 Economic indicators dashboard Vist www.blog.helpingadvisors.com for the full commentary of the Economic Indicators Dashboard. MOST RECENT 3-MO. trend TYPICAL range EXTREME

More information

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom

UNITED KINGDOM. United Kingdom UNITED KINGDOM Growth has slowed, and is projected to be 1¾ per cent in 216. Uncertainty about the outcome of the end-june 216 referendum, which could lead to an exit of the United Kingdom from the European

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan Mortgage Originations Estimates Revised Higher MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: February 2016 In our most recent forecast, we presented revisions to our mortgage

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 1/11 January 1 January 11 Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics

More information

The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland

The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland Suomen Pankki The euro area economy, ECB monetary policy and its transmission in the euro area and Finland Euro & talous, 9 June 2016 1 Euro area economic growth is broadly based, but inflation still slow.

More information

Eurozone Economic dashboard

Eurozone Economic dashboard Eurozone Economic dashboard Our Economic Dashboard is designed to help investors understand the true state of the eurozone economy. It is not meant to serve as a direct prediction regarding the future

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy 3/11 17 March 11 Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy is produced jointly by the

More information

The case for high yield

The case for high yield The case for high yield Jennifer Ponce de Leon, Vice President, Senior Sector Leader Wendy Price, Director, Institutional Product Management We believe high yield is a compelling relative investment opportunity

More information

1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006

1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006 1 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2006 Economic Policy Department June 2014 Probability (Per Cent) 2 MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2014 The June 2014 Survey was sent out

More information

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States

Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the United States WELCOME TO THE WEBINAR WEBINAR LINK: HTTP://FRBATL.ADOBECONNECT.COM/ECONOMY/ DIAL-IN NUMBER (MUST USE FOR AUDIO): 855-377-2663 ACCESS CODE: 71032685 Euro Zone s Economic Outlook and What it Means for the

More information

Svein Gjedrem: The economic outlook and monetary policy

Svein Gjedrem: The economic outlook and monetary policy Svein Gjedrem: The economic outlook and monetary policy Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at SR-banken, Stavanger, 18 March 2005. The speech is based on the

More information

Monthly Economic Dashboard

Monthly Economic Dashboard RETIREMENT INSTITUTE SM Economic perspective Monthly Economic Dashboard Modest acceleration in economic growth appears in store for 2016 as the inventory-caused soft patch ends, while monetary policy moves

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014

UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 UK Economic Forecast Q3 2014 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy

Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy BANK OF FINLAND Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy /1 13 April 1 13 April 1 Monetary Policy and Research - Financial Markets and Statistics

More information

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds

OVERVIEW. A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds OVERVIEW A cyclical upswing is underway favoured by several temporary tailwinds whose strength underpins an upward revision to the growth forecast this year The outlook for economic growth in the EU has

More information

A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off

A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off A Checklist for a Bond Market Sell-off New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary February 2013 Christian@harbourasset.co.nz +64 4 460 8309 Just like 2011 and 2012, the start of a new year has again prompted

More information

S&P 500 outlook: Close to peak for 2015

S&P 500 outlook: Close to peak for 2015 S&P 500 outlook: Close to peak for 2015 August 12, 2015 Markets and Products Analysis INVESTMENT PORTOFOLIO ANALYSIS DIVISION Important Disclaimer in page 2 1 Disclaimer Disclaimer: The information herein

More information

US HOUSING MARKET MONTHLY

US HOUSING MARKET MONTHLY US HOUSING MARKET MONTHLY th Oct. Editor: Ed Stansfield New build sales finally making some headway Overview: The drop in mortgage rates towards the end of September has given mortgage applications a boost,

More information

Consumer Price Developments in December 2015

Consumer Price Developments in December 2015 sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in December 2015 CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December CPI-All Items inflation came in at -0.6% in December, compared to -0.8%

More information

Business Outlook Survey

Business Outlook Survey Business Outlook Survey Results of the Winter 215 16 Survey Vol. 12.4 11 January 216 Overall, responses to the winter Business Outlook Survey indicate that business sentiment has deteriorated as the negative

More information

HOW BAD IS THE CURRENT RECESSION? LABOUR MARKET DOWNTURNS SINCE THE 1960s

HOW BAD IS THE CURRENT RECESSION? LABOUR MARKET DOWNTURNS SINCE THE 1960s HOW BAD IS THE CURRENT RECESSION? LABOUR MARKET DOWNTURNS SINCE THE 1960s Executive summary The New Zealand economy experienced a fall in real GDP over the five quarters to March 2009 and further falls

More information

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market

Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market Communications P.O. Box, CH-8022 Zurich Telephone +41 44 631 31 11 Fax +41 44 631 39 10 Zurich, 13 September 2007 Monetary policy assessment of 13 September 2007 SNB aiming to calm the money market The

More information

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org

MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org MBA Forecast Commentary Joel Kan, jkan@mba.org Weak First Quarter, But Growth Expected to Recover MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Commentary: May 2015 Broad economic growth in the US got off to a slow

More information

Interest Rate Forecast

Interest Rate Forecast Interest Rate Forecast Economics December Highlights Fed normalization begins More policy moves in China Canada s uneven economy BoC on hold, lower CAD Per cent 6 4 3 2 1 U.S. Federal Funds Rate A continuation

More information

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR OUTLOOK The AUD Still finding support Tuesday, 10 July 2012 Concerns regarding global economic growth have pushed commodity prices and the AUD lower since edging above $US1.08 in January.

More information

Meeting with Analysts

Meeting with Analysts CNB s New Forecast (Inflation Report IV/) Meeting with Analysts Tibor Hlédik Prague, 7 November, Outline Assumptions of the forecast The new macroeconomic forecast Comparison with the previous forecast

More information

Consumer Price Developments in May 2016

Consumer Price Developments in May 2016 sdzkl1;yah Consumer Price Developments in May 2016 CPI-All Items fell by 1.6% in May, compared to the 0.5% decline in April, mostly due to base effects associated with the timing of the disbursement of

More information

Growth holds steady while tender prices continue to rise above inflation

Growth holds steady while tender prices continue to rise above inflation April 2015 Growth holds steady while tender prices continue to rise above inflation Tender Cost Update UK Trend towards risk aversion grows in regional locations and procurement choices become more critical

More information

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the

BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information. Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information September 7, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on the General interest rate for September

More information

The evolution of New Zealand s trade flows

The evolution of New Zealand s trade flows The evolution of New Zealand s trade flows Victoria Yili Zhang New Zealand s trading patterns have changed considerably in recent years. Our trade is increasingly oriented towards the Asia-Pacific region,

More information

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture

The Mexican Economy in the Global Economic Juncture Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México Santander EM Day, Macro & Corporates Conference London, 7 June 2016 Outline 1 2 3 4 5 External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Inflation

More information

Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks

Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks Bond Market Momentum, Valuation and Risks New Zealand Fixed Income Monthly Commentary August 1 christian@harbourasset.co.nz + 89 Global bond yields stabilised in July, as markets weighed up two opposing

More information

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation

Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation Main Economic & Financial Indicators Russian Federation 02 NOVEMBER 201 NAOKO ISHIHARA ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-777-2179 E naoko.ishihara@uk.mufg.jp Overview The Bank of

More information

Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates

Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates Monetary Policy and Mortgage Interest rates July 2014 Key Points: Monetary policy, which operates through changes in the official cash rate (OCR), is the main lever of macroeconomic management in Australia

More information

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services

Statement by. Janet L. Yellen. Chair. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. before the. Committee on Financial Services For release at 8:30 a.m. EST February 10, 2016 Statement by Janet L. Yellen Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before the Committee on Financial Services U.S. House of Representatives

More information

Preliminary Investment Trends Report

Preliminary Investment Trends Report Preliminary Investment Trends Report ONTARIO: 215 224 Investment in Ontario s construction industry grows over the medium term in line with a number of proposed major resource development, electric utilities

More information

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 January 2016

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 January 2016 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending on 13 January 2016 Publication date: 14 January 2016 These are the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting ending

More information

The current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2015 5

The current economic situation in Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report February 2015 5 The current economic situation in Germany Deutsche Bundesbank 5 6 Overview Global economy German economy emerging from sluggish phase faster than expected The global economy looks to have expanded in the

More information

June 2016 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1

June 2016 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 June 2016 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area 1 1 Euro area outlook: overview and key features The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue, supported by the

More information

Q ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor results

Q ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor results Q3 216 ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor results July 216 Outline 1. Confidence 2. GDP forecast 3. Trends in sales, domestic & export 4. Impact: skills, costs, capacity, profits & prices 5. Responses:

More information

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities

Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities January U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook Preparing for 2015 Housing Market Opportunities As we enter 2015, the U.S. economy and housing markets are prepared for a robust start. Unlike one year ago,

More information

NAB Monthly Business Survey

NAB Monthly Business Survey NAB Monthly Business Survey by NAB Group Economics Embargoed until: 11:3am Tuesday 14 June 216 Next release: 12 July 216 (June monthly) Key Points: * All data seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.

More information

5. Price and Wage Developments

5. Price and Wage Developments . Price and Wage Developments Recent Developments in Inflation Inflation rose in the December quarter, following a low September quarter outcome (Table.; Graph.). Indicators of underlying inflation increased

More information

Japan Economic Monthly

Japan Economic Monthly Japan Economic Monthly Sustained Strong Corporate Profits Point to Increasing Employment and Capital Expenditures REI TSURUTA TOORU KANAHORI ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE 1 OCTOBER (ORIGINAL JAPANESE VERSION

More information

Monetary Policy Statement

Monetary Policy Statement Monetary Policy Statement September 1 1 This Statement is made pursuant to Section 15 of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 199. Contents 1. Policy assessment. Overview and key policy judgements 3. Financial

More information

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA

EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the

More information

Monetary Policy Statement

Monetary Policy Statement Monetary Policy Statement November 1999 1 This Statement is made pursuant to Section 15 of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. Contents 1. Overview and policy assessment 2 2. Recent developments

More information

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms

The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms The U.S. and Midwest Economy in 2016: Implications for Supply Chain Firms Rick Mattoon Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Right Place Supply Chain Management Conference

More information

Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November

Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November Economic Analysis Nonfarm Payrolls Jump 321K in November Kim Fraser Chase Employment growth was a jaw-dropper in November, up an astounding 321K following a revised 243K gain in October. This marks the

More information

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015

UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 UK Economic Forecast Q1 2015 David Kern, Chief Economist at the BCC The main purpose of the BCC Economic Forecast is to articulate a BCC view on economic topics that are relevant to our members, and to

More information

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

MORE UPSIDE FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Dec. 23 Jan. 2 ECONOMY AND STRATEGY 51.879.2529 Clément Gignac Strategist and Chief Economist Stéfane Marion Assistant Chief Economist Paul-André Pinsonnault Senior Fixed Income Economist Marc Pinsonneault

More information

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015

Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on. the interest rate for January 2015 BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information January 12, 2015 Report to the public on the Bank of Israel s discussions prior to deciding on General the interest rate for January 2015

More information

Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q1 2013

Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q1 2013 Danske Bank Quarterly Economic Overview for Q1 2013 Published in March 2013 1 Contents Summary of Quarter 4 2012 and economic outlook: Global. United Kingdom. Northern Ireland. 1. Gross output estimates.

More information

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, 12 MAY 2015

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, 12 MAY 2015 THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORWEGIAN ECONOMY DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN, MAY 5 The role of monetary policy in economic restructuring Flexible inflation targeting Low and stable inflation.5% Stable developments

More information

Q&A on tax relief for individuals & families

Q&A on tax relief for individuals & families Q&A on tax relief for individuals & families A. Tax cuts individuals What are the new tax rates? The table below shows the new tax rates being rolled out from 1 October 2008, 1 April 2010 and 1 April 2011,

More information

PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK UPDATE February 6, 2015

PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK UPDATE February 6, 2015 PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK UPDATE February 6, 2015 Real GDP growth 2015 Annual % change CANADA B.C. 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 Several developments have occurred since the publication of our most recent Provincial Outlook

More information