Real GDP Growth Forecasts. Staff GDP Forecast Summary. GDP Growth Contributions: Percentage Points

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1 Staff GDP Forecast Summary Projected real growth: about % (Q/Q) in and ¾% in. Near-term forecast below that presented at May EAP. Similar to Blue Chip consensus for ; below it for. Outlook reflects countervailing factors. Positive: Solid income growth and private balance sheets. Bulk of investment decline in energy sector likely behind us. Somewhat stimulative fiscal policy. Negative: Continued drag from net exports. Sluggish business fixed investment. Slow productivity growth. Real GDP Growth Forecasts % Change (AR) % Change (AR) - - May Vintages Blue Chip - - Note: The blue band represents the top and bottom averages of the Blue Chip survey. Source:, BEA, and Blue Chip Economic Indicators - - GDP Growth Contributions: - age Points PCE Res. Inv. BFI Inventory Inv. Source: and Bureau of Economic Analysis... Gov. Exp. age Points. (Q/Q) Real GDP..9. Real Final Sales...9 ` Net Exports Aggregate Weekly Hours Worked Month % Change Month % Change Goods-Producing Industries - Private Service-Providing Industries - NY Fed / Research & Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Advisory Panel / April

2 Staff Unemployment Forecast Summary Modestly above-potential growth leads to decline in unemployment rate to around ¾% by end of, with stable unemployment rate in. Below FRBNY forecast at May EAP. Less rapid decline than Blue Chip consensus. Factors underlying this forecast. Population growth around.%. Productivity growth gradually rising back to assumed trend rate of ¼% NFBS-basis (% GDP-basis) in. Participation rate rises slightly over and. Slight uptick in average weekly hours. Unemployment Rate Forecasts May Vintages Blue Chip Note: The blue band represents the top and bottom averages of the Blue Chip survey. Source:, BEA, and Blue Chip Economic Indicators Productivity Growth: Nonfarm Business Sector -Qtr MA of Quarter % Change Annual Rate Qtr MA of Quarter % Change Annual Rate. Output per Hour Note: Shading shows NBER recessions..... Compensation Growth: Nonfarm Business Sector Quarter % Change Quarter % Change Compensation per Hour - Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. NY Fed / Research & Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Advisory Panel / April

3 Staff Inflation Forecast Summary As energy and import prices stabilize, inflation anticipated to rise gradually toward FOMC s longer-run goal. PCE inflation projected to reach % in. Underlying assumptions. Well-anchored longer-run inflation expectations. Continued downward pressure on goods prices from past dollar appreciation. Firming of global demand. Dissipation of remaining slack by end of. Overall PCE Inflation Forecasts % Change (AR) % Change (AR) - - FOMC Objective May Vintage Source: and Bureau of Economic Analysis Core PCE Inflation Forecasts % Change (AR) % Change (AR)... FOMC Objective... CPI Core Goods and Core Services Inflation Month % Change Month % Change Core Services... May Vintage. - - Core Goods Source: and Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Shading shows NBER recessions. NY Fed / Research & Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Advisory Panel / April

4 Risks to Real Activity Outlook Balance of risks slightly skewed to the downside in, with greater downside risk in. Major risks Upside: Underlying fundamentals for consumer spending and housing are stronger than expected. Global growth strengthens and dollar declines, with less net export drag than expected. Downside: Financial conditions tighten more than expected. Slower global growth has larger spillover to U.S. growth. Real GDP Growth Forecast Distribution % Change Year to Year % Change Year to Year Risks to Inflation Outlook Risks roughly balanced in, and slightly skewed to the downside in. Upside: Resource slack may be lower than currently estimated. More modest effect of dollar appreciation on domestic prices. Possible reversal of past several years slowdown in health care price inflation. Downside: Stronger global disinflationary pressures emerge. Inflation expectations becoming unanchored on downside because of persistent low inflation environment. Core PCE Inflation Forecast Distribution % Change Year to Year % Change Year to Year NY Fed / Research & Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Advisory Panel / April

5 Productivity: Low-Growth Regime Probabilities Low Growth =.% High Growth =.9% REFERENCE SLIDES Source: Author s Calculations Note: Retrospective assessments in real time (up to March ) NY Fed / Research & Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Advisory Panel / April

6 FRBNY Forecast Details Q Q Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Summary Actual / / / / / / Ac tual / / / / / / Real GDP Total PCE Deflator Core PCE Deflator Nonfarm Business Sector Output Hours Productivity Growth Compensation Unit Labor Costs Real GDP Grow th Contributions** Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers Private Consumption BFI: Equipment BFI: Nonresidential Structures BFI: Intellectural Property Products Residential Investment Government Federal State and Local Inventory Investment Net Exports Exports Imports Real GDP Components' Grow th Rates Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers Consumption BFI: Equipment BFI: Nonresidential Structures BFI: Intellectural Property Products Residential Investment Government: Federal Government: State and Local Inventory Investment n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Net Exports n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Exports Imports Labor Market Nonfarm Payroll Employment 9 9 Unemployment Rate*** Income Real Disposable Personal Income Personal Saving Rate*** *End-of-period value **Grow th contributions may not sum to total due to rounding. ***Quarterly values are the average rate for the quarter. Yearly values are the average rate for Q of the listed year. Blue and italic text indicate released data; darker colors indicate the most recent forecast. NY Fed / Research & Statistics Group Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Advisory Panel / April

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