Recent Tsunamis and Alert System

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Beryl Lucas
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1 Recent Tsunamis and Alert System Giant tsunami following a huge earthquake propagating over the ocean Huge damage of human loss,ranging 230, ,000, houses/buildings, infrastructure, and environments on the coast New type of damage and disaster; Transportation trains, debris flow/floating material, damage on oil tank Damage at resort areas Tsunami warning system Now Series/sequence of following earthquakes; SOI Asia Special Symposium Fumihiko Imamura DCRC, Tohoku University 2004DEC/2005MAY/2006MAY & JULY/2007 SEP in the Indian Ocean 1

2 Through the devastating damage in 2004 What we have learned since that time? What should we do now? How we can be changed for future? to mitigate a tsunami disaster 2

3 2004 Sumatra Earthquake M=9.2 & Indian ocean tsunami Historical data of Earthquake JAMSTEC 3

4 On 2005/2/4, NHK special program of the

5 The feature of the 2004 tsunami Generation, Propagation and Inundation Simulated by Science and Technology at present Knowing risk 5

6 The 2004 Tsunami Generation and Propagation 6

7 Numerical model of the tsunami for Thailand (Matsuyama, 2005) 1/4 wave-length Shoaling effect Phuket Banda Ache 7 0 m after the shock 30 min after the shock

8 Numerical model of the tsunami for Thailand (Matsuyama, 2005) Shallow region/sea amount Phuket Banda Ache 1hr after the shock 1hr 30m 8

9 Huge damage at resort area Khao Lak, in Thailand 9

10 Newspaper on the damaged train by the tsunami, Sri Lanka 10

11 Functions/roles of mangrove/green belt along shore to reduce a tsunami impact and mitigate its damage? Living with risk 11

12 Damage VS wave height/ velocity/ force Tsunami heights: 2-4m Tsunami velocity: 3-5 m/s Heavy damage Tsunami heights: 2-4m Tsunami velocity: < 1 m/s Small damage 2004 Indian ocean tsunami Field survey in Sri Lanka 12

13 Houses damage at Moratuwa, Sri Lanka 13

14 Several functions of coastal forest in Japan (Harada &Imamura, 2003) A%3>3'4)#; 4/$',7&)&'$'6,4&#' 5#)/4#9)6%&;4/ 7#>36).&40 4/$',7&/ Arevent 4#)secondary disaster of house damage =&;3)/,>&'( *,"-).,/0 1,223')4%33/?'3%(+)2#// 5#)%36$"3 5/$',7&/ 8'$'6,4&#'),%3, 8'$'6,4&#')63940 :$%%3'4 12$&6);#%"3 <&4&(,4&#')#; 5/$',7& 6,7,(3/ 14

15 Destructions of mangrove in Khao Lak Thailand Before Tsunami After Tsunami Survival picture Destroyed Survival IKONOS Satellite Image Many mangrove were destroyed by tsunami impact. erosion Withered Destroyed 15 Rhizohora sp.

16 Damage on the mangrove in Thailand Relation among Maximum Velocity,Diameter and destruction (Yanagisawa et al, 2006) The line divided into two; the survival and the destroyed zones Diameter of Bust height (m)!"'!!"&!!"%!!"$!!"#!!"!! Survival zone destroyed zone ()*+,+-. / % % " ' & & " ' ' ' " ' Maximum Velocity (m/s) 16

17 Case study on the affected people by the tsunami minute by minute at Banda Ache with tsunami inundation simulation - discuss on the human loss How many people Banda Aceh could be saved by the early warning? Mitigating risk 17 IKONOS image

18 Koshimura et al.,

19 Shore line 1km Tsunami 30 min. after the earthquake and 10 min after arrival (Oie et al., 2006) 19

20 Speed of wave front => 3-5 m/s Shore line 3km Tsunami 40 min. after the earthquake and 20 min after arrival (Oie et al., 2006) 20

21 Effected Population Tsunami arrived 20 min after Eq. &$!!!! &#!!!! &"!!!! &!!!!! %!!!! $!!!! #!!!! "!!!!!! &! "! '! #! (! $! Tsunami Arrival Time after the tsunami starting runup 140,000 people were at inundation area Total death is 70,000 Ratio of death exceed 50 % min. The 60,000 inundated If the warning is issued within 20 min. Tsunami 90 min. after quak 21

22 Tsunami Information on 26th Dec min 0:59 UTC Fault motion Started at the epicenter min Fault motion completed (~1,000km length) 15 min 1:14 UTC 1st information was issued [M 8.0] 20 min 1:19 UTC 1st positive wave attack Banda Ache 40 min 1:39 UTC Banda Ache (~4km) completely inundated 69 min 2:08 UTC 2nd Bulletin was issued [M 8.5 & possibility of local tsunami] ~2 hours Tsunami attack Thailand, Sri Lanka &India 22

23 Existing Tsunami Forecast Scheme and proposing the revised Seismological Observation (Location,M) Tsunami Waveform Data Base Offshore Tsunami Observation Initial estimate Data Assimilation Initial estimate is improved Adjustment of source location (X) & fault dislocation (D) by inversion Kurab uri Sibolg a Kr a bi Hirata(2005) modified Improved Prediction of Tsunami Amplitude & Travel Times 23

24 NWPTA Northwest Pacific Ocean Tsunami Alert), Japan Meteorological Agency Providing the tsunami information to Northwest Pacific Ocean and Indian ocean Seismic monitoring in the world Tidal observation in the world JMA Epicenter, Prediction of Tsunami Height, observation data Indian ocean (TWI) (NWPTA) 24

25 Points for Tsunami height prediction, TI, Tsunami Informatio, by JMA in NWPTA Countries receiving the TI China, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, PNG, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam (10 countries) 25

26 Recent Major Tsunamis 25 events since &2007 Kuril 1993 Hokkaido SW 2003 Stromboli 2004Indian ocean 1992 Nicaragua 2005 Nias 1996 Irian Jaya 1998 PNG 2001 Peru 2007 S Sumatra 2007 Solomon 2006 SE Java1994 E Java 1999 Vanuatu 1992 Flores 26

27 Imamura et al., 2006, BACONAS, Java SW 2006/07 Kuril 2007 Solomon 2007 Sumatra S Mw & Modified Mercali Intensity Mw7.7 MMI 5 Mw7.9/8.0 MMI 7 Mw8.0 MMI 8 Mw8.4 MMI9 Tsunami Runup 2-7m 1-2 m 2-8.5m 2-4m Death Tsunami 0 Missing Injured > House Damage 1,317? >1,200 >33,000 Tsunami Warning No Yes No Yes After canceling, Max Tsunami 27

28 Earthquake & tsunami information at the affected area in min SMS Mass media BMG) Mw of earthquake and tsunami 10 min Public announcement through the Speaker at Mosque Message by mayor and governor M8.4 28

29 Public awareness in PNG, 2000 Be better prepared Public awareness campaign Memorials and warning signs Hazard mapping Strengthen NDMO Better communications 29

30 Balance between Tsunami Waning and Risk Bias Monitoring/observation +Prediction Early Warning System Regional/National/Local Receiving+Recognizing => Decision of evacuation What message? What information When Who 2. Tsunami warning 1. Risk Bias in individual -own knowledge -own experience 3. Increasing Awareness and Risk perception through communication,education, workshop, making Hazard maps, drill 30

31 LAST SLIDE Extra-large disasters (Kawata, 2001) earthquake events casualties tsunami events casualties storm surge total 416 (from AD620) 343,000 total 180 (from AD684) 125,000 total extra-large event 32 (6%) 328,000 (96%) extra-large event 21 (12%) 117,000 (94%) extra-large event events casualties 190 (from AD701) 78, (9%) 46,000 (59%) Key words: long-term countermeasure, succeeding disaster culture 31

Lessons learned from the tsunami disaster caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and improvements in JMA's tsunami warning system

Lessons learned from the tsunami disaster caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and improvements in JMA's tsunami warning system October 2013 Japan Meteorological Agency Lessons learned from the