Australia s Role as a Regional Service Tsunami Provider for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System

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1 Australia s Role as a Regional Service Tsunami Provider for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Daniel Jaksa & Spiro Spiliopoulos Australian Tsunami Warning System Geoscience Australia

2 Outline Background Regional Tsunami Service Provider Australian Tsunami Warning System Future Directions

3 International Coordination The body responsible for coordinating international efforts in tsunami warning and mitigation is the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO. The IOC General Assembly XXIII in Paris held in June 2005 confirmed the need to establish an interim tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean. This would be provided through the existing Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii and the Japan Meteorological Agency in Tokyo. The Paris meeting also adopted resolutions to create three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups (ICGs) for the Indian Ocean, the North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean, and the Caribbean to establish basin-wide tsunami warning systems. The first session of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System was held in Perth in August A key resolution of the meeting was that the IOTWS would be a coordinated network of national systems and capacities. It was agreed that each Member State would have responsibility for issuing warnings within their respective territories.

4 Regional Tsunami Service Provider Performance Indicators and Target Values Performance Indicators and target values for Regional Tsunami Service Providers (RTSPs) are as follows: Elapsed time from earthquake to initial earthquake information issuance.10 min Probability of detection of Indian Ocean earthquakes with Mw>= % Accuracy of earthquake hypocenter location 30 kms * Accuracy of earthquake hypocenter depth 25km * Accuracy of initial earthquake magnitude.0.3 * Elapsed time from earthquake to issuance of first bulletin containing tsunami threat info min Accuracy of the tsunami forecast amplitude/height factor of 2. Probability of detection of tsunami above threat threshold 100% # Accuracy of time arrival of tsunami (0.02m amplitude)..within 5% of travel time# Accuracy of time of arrival of 1st significant wave (0.1m).within 5% of travel time # Accuracy of threat threshold exceedance.within 5% # Percent of Indian Ocean countries issued a timely product as defined above.100% Elapsed time from any product issuance to potential receipt by Tsunami Warning Focal Points 5 mins. ## Percent of time RTSP is operating and able to issue products.99.5% Percent of regular Communications Tests participated in...100%

5 ICG/IOTWS-9 (November 2012) Requests the RTSPs of Australia, India and Indonesia to assume full operational provision of RTSP SL2 services for the Indian Ocean Area of Responsibility from 31st March Interim service provided by the US and Japan no longer required.

6 RTSP - Australia Services: Password-protected web page with: SL1 Earthquake Bulletins and SL2 Threat Assessment Bulletins Threat Maps for Indian Ocean Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs) Threat Table giving detailed threat data for all CFZs NTWC Warning Status Reporting form Spatial Data File (.dbf) with CFZ threat data RTSP Notification Messages sent to NTWCs via , GTS, fax, SMS RTSP Australia User Guide Modelling: Uses the Method Of Splitting Tsunamis (MOST) model Pre-run scenarios for 521 locations across Pacific and Indian Oceans, for magnitudes 7.5, 8.0, 8.5, 9.0

7 RTSP Australia Wave Energy and Travel Time Map for Indian Ocean

8 RTSP Australia Threat Map for Indian Ocean Coastal Forecast Zones

9 RTSP Australia Notification Message TSUNAMI BULLETIN NOTIFICATION MESSAGE 2 REGIONAL TSUNAMI SERVICE PROVIDER - RTSP AUSTRALIA [JATWC] ISSUED AT 12:57UTC 11 Apr TO: INDIAN OCEAN NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTRES [NTWCs] FROM: RTSP AUSTRALIA NOTIFICATION: RTSP AUSTRALIA HAS JUST ISSUED TSUNAMI BULLETIN 2 FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN, BASED ON THE FOLLOWING EARTHQUAKE EVENT: MAGNITUDE: 8.5 DEPTH: 0km ORIGIN TIME: 08:38 UTC 11 April 2012 LATITUDE: 2.250N LONGITUDE: E LOCATION: OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA TO VIEW THE BULLETIN GO TO THE RTSP AUSTRALIA WEBSITE AT: NOTE: THIS IS A RESTRICTED-ACCESS WEBSITE CONTAINING TECHNICAL DATA FOR NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTRES ONLY. IT IS NOT FOR GENERAL PUBLIC ACCESS. GENERAL PUBLIC INFORMATION FOR THIS EVENT IS AVAILABLE FROM: JOINT AUSTRALIAN TSUNAMI WARNING CENTRE [JATWC] BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA END OF NOTIFICATION MESSAGE

10 Australian Tsunami Warning System Operated by Geoscience Australia and the Bureau of Meteorology Objectives 1. Provide a comprehensive tsunami warning system for Australia; 2. Support international efforts to establish an Indian Ocean tsunami warning system (IOTWS); and 3. Contribute to the facilitation of tsunami warnings for the South West Pacific.

11 Australian Tsunami Warning System The ATWS is defined as an end-to-end system: from understanding the hazard and risk to community awareness and preparedness; earthquake and tsunami monitoring; detection and analysis; through to public warnings; and then onto evacuation and response. As the constitutional responsibility for all these components exist within all levels of Government, the Australian Government, State and Territory Governments and some Local Governments are all involved in the ATWS to varying capacities.

12 Australian Tsunami Warning System Joint SEISMIC EVENT Australian Geoscience Australia Seismic wave detection and analysis Tsunami Notification of Potentially Tsunamigenic Earthquakes Warning < JATWC > Centre Bureau of Meteorology Sea level analysis, Verify tsunami existence and Forecast wave arrival times and Impact zones Initial Seismic Notification Tsunami Warning Emergency Management Australia Coordination of Federal assistance for recovery Requests for Federal assistance Bureau of Meteorology Regional Offices (States and Territory) Existing multi-hazard warning network Tsunami Warning Distribution State and Territory Emergency Services Emergency response Government Agencies Advice and Assistance Communications Media Information Dissemination Local area response advice Welfare support Tsunami Warning General Public

13 Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre Geoscience Australia Hub 24/7 operational centre

14 Seismic Network

15 Seismic Networks used by Geoscience Australia for Tsunami Monitoring IMS IMS Network II/IU GE G International Research Networks IA MY NZ? National Networks AU Australian Network

16 Decision Support System Mwp Tool

17 Seismic Network Upgrade Summary 24 new sites Standardised sensors, data loggers and vault design Broadband seismometers (STS-2 and KS54000) High level of redundancy through improved power and communications All data publicly available

18 Vault Construction

19 Extending GA s capability in the region Eidsvold Canberra Moorlands Cobar Niue Lord Howe Island

20 Source locations for tsunami scenario database for the Indian and Pacific Ocean

21

22 JATWC Sea Level Monitoring Bottom Pressure Sensors

23 Future Developments Faster and more accurate warnings Better station coverage Improved algorithms for earthquake characterisation

24 Case Study Sumatran Earthquakes in 2012

25 Solomon Islands Sensitivity to Rupture Direction

26 Real Time Tsunami Forecasting Sensitivity to initial conditions

27 Earthquake characterisation W Phase From Kanamori and Rivera (2008) W-phase was firstly reported by Kanamori (1993). Long period wave ( [s]) arriving together with the P wave. It has a small amplitude compared with the surface waves.

28 Earthquake characterisation - Grid MT Kawakatsu, H., (1998) On the realtime monitoring of the long-period seismic wavefield., Bull. Earth. Res. Inst., 73,

29 Earthquake characterisation - Seismic Arrays Medium aperture 10 km Ignite EMH (Feb 2013)

30 Mapping Array Rupture Using IMS Arrays 3 x amplitude azimuth time [sec] time [sec] 20 3 slowness log FSTAT time [sec] time [sec] Solomon Island Earthquake (WRA)

31 Earthquake Characterisation Finite Fault Inversion Source time function This tsunami earthquake had a long source duration for its magnitude, with slip concentrated near the trench

32 Thank-you

33 Real-time Seismic Waveform Displays Visual display only. With experience, the Duty Seismologist can approximate location and magnitude. Duty Seismologist waits for earthquake solution before analysis can be made about 5 to 6 minutes in our region.

34 Seis-alert (automatic solution) Cordless phone rings, control desk alarms activate, Backup BlackBerry sounds, XML sent to BoM JATWC & alerts to GA staff

35 Decision Support System Map Tool

36 Manual Solution Alert Control desk alarm sounds, Backup BlackBerry sounds, XML sent to BoM JATWC & alerts to RTSP, GA staff & AGCCC, website, RSS, CAP

37 Stations used in ATWS

38 Geoscience Australia calculates the earthquake origin time, hypocentre and magnitude and sends this information to the Bureau of Meteorology Geoscience Australia Earthquake Information

39 Tsunamigenic Potential of earthquakes Depth of Earthquake Location of Earthquake Magnitude of Earthquake Tsunamigenic Potential M > 7.8 Potential for an ocean-wide destructive tsunami 7.8 M 7.5 Potential for a destructive regional tsunami < 100 km Sea area 7.5 M 7.0 Potential for a destructive local tsunami 7.0 M 6.5 Very small potential for a destructive local tsunami Inland area M 6.5 No tsunami potential 100 km All locations M 6.5 No tsunami potential Nishide, Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Centre

40

41 Bureau of Meteorology Sea-Level Monitoring Planned sea level network

42 Software Development

43 The Role of IMS Data within the ATWS As a global, operational network the IMS will provide: High quality and reliable seismic data Good geographic coverage In addition many IMS stations are arrays: Seismic arrays that will enable: Faster, more accurate locations Rupture modelling

44 ATWS Data Quality Issues Data Latency Map April 28, 2008

45 Rupture Tracking two arrays Chiang Mai Warramunga

46 Rupture tracking single array

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