Agricultural/Forestry Applications and Climate Services in Spain. Dr. Fernando Belda AEMET

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1 Agricultural/Forestry Applications and Climate Services in Spain Dr. Fernando Belda AEMET

2 Index Motivation Background Data in real time Agricultural applications sigagroassesor and key aspects AEMET role Forestry applications Wild fire early system Drought monitoring, evaluation and forecast. Project DESEMON Climate prediction Remote sensing data Conclusions/Discussion

3 Focus on: Observations and Numerical Weather/Climate Models Outputs (Seasonal Forecasts) SBA Agricultural Forestry Hydrology Crop Monitoring/Forecasting systems National Early warning systems

4 Introduction In Spain most of the current operational activities in agrometeorology have been related with the use of real-time meteorological data coming from specific agro-climatic networks to provide irrigation advice to the farmers and crop protection alerts. Specific warnings for each crop/plague are issued at municipality level in some regions. In some cases local weather predictions or climate information are also available in combination with the advice service, but outputs from numerical weather and climate models have not been used until now in an operational context.

5 The use of weather data in realtime in decision- making in agriculture in Spain Apart from the AWS network owned by AEMET, there is a specific agro-meteorological network (SIAR). This is an infrastructure that captures, records and reports the weather data needed for the calculation of the water demand of irrigated areas, which is aimed at a better planning, management, operation and control of irrigated farms. The automatic weather stations of SiAR network are designed to collect all parameters needed for ETo calculation (Penman- Monteith formulation), to do so the following meteorological variables are recorded: temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, global radiation and precipitation. The SIAR network integrates more than 450 automatic weather stations and was implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture of Spain in the late 90 s.

6 Automatic Weather Station Network of AEMET

7 The real-time information from SiAR network could be freely accessed from the Webpage:

8 The agro-meteorological network is managed and operated by the Agrarian Institutions of the Spanish Autonomous Communities in order to provide irrigation recommendations and advice. In some cases local weather predictions or climate information is also available in combination with the advice service, but outputs from numerical weather and climate models have not directly been used in an operational context so far. Some examples from different Spanish regions concerning the use of realtime meteorological information to provide agrometeorological services: In the Canary Islands the AgroCabildo of Tenerife (Canary Islands) provides irrigation advices and plant protection alerts. For irrigation scheduling purposes, a correction to the ETo calculated from the automatic weather stations is introduced. It takes into account the predicted values of the relevant meteorological relevant variables.

9 In Andalusia, the Regional Agronomic Agency developed a platform that offers irrigation advice and crop protection alerts through messages or via SMS. A user can subscribe to this alert service for a particular crop. vifapa/servifapa/ Riego/alertas making in agriculture in Spain Similar irrigation advice services based on real-time weather data have been also implemented in other Autonomous Communities as it is the case of Murcia Castillla- La Mancha: Navarra region

10 Vasque Country: In Catalonia the Agrarian Research Institution (called Ruralcat) owns a specific weather station network mainly devoted to the risk assessment of pests and diseases of fruit trees and vineyards and to provide irrigation indications. The warnings are issued at municipality level. This information is available at: making in agriculture in Spain In Castilla and León, there is a close cooperation between AEMET and the ITACyL (Regional Agricultural Institute) to provide agrometeorological services to famers. In the framework of this agreement a regional agroclimatic atlas has been recently produced and it is available online. The ITACyL provides irrigation advices and combines this information with specific local weather forecasts generated by AEMET. In addition there are plans to apply in a near future the WOFOST simulation model to produce analysis and predictions of the growth and production of field crops. go/recomen dacion/index.html

11 The SigAGROasesor project Activities oriented to the development of agricultural services making use of weather model outputs are currently being carried out in the framework of the recently started sigagroasesor project. The project started in September 2012 and will end in January 2016; it is being carried out with the contribution of the LIFE financial instrument of the European Community (LIFE+11 programs). This project aims to develop and refine a set of decisionsupport tools (DST) for extensive agriculture. These tools are being implemented in a web platform to provide on-line services to farmers, allowing them to work more efficiently, effectively and competitively, and by doing so move toward the environmental, economic and social sustainability of the agricultural systems.

12 The SigAGROasesor project The partners involved in the project are public agricultural research entities from regional administrations in Spain as well as the Spanish National Meteorological Service (AEMET).

13 The SigAGROasesor project The sigagroasesor project goal is to develop and put in operation a set of decision-support tools (DST) for extensive agriculture in Spain based on remote sensing information, weather and climate data and NWP outputs. The system, supported by a Geographical Information System, develops a Services Web Platform for farmers. It aims at helping farmers to carry out their activities in a more efficient and competitive way, based on a principle of environmental and social sustainability. The most recent version of the sigagroasesor web platform has been implemented in May 2014 and it is a webgis application, focused on the precision advice at the level of individual plots in five different applications: fertilization, irrigation, pest and diseases, varieties and sustainability indicators.

14 KEY ASPECTS OF THE PROJECT The sigagroasesor on-line services platform comprises three pillars on which this expert system and decision-support tool are based: The application of modern GIS technologies for the management of georeferenced information, making use of soil variability, climate, crop condition, plant health alerts, and biotic and abiotic risks in the decisionmaking process. Web-based Decision Support Tools (DST) to systematise the management decisions. Geo-referenced Traceability, as a tool to register and manage historical records of Crop Management Units (CMU).

15

16 Input Data Deterministic models CEPPM Hirlam005 GFE Editor Spatial Editor FDD Storage Grids Hirlam016 HARMONI Probabilistic models EPS Waves Others Temporal Editor Internal products Text External products to GFE CEO Hirlam Dust.. Grid Manager Image

17 Forestry applications In the case of the forestry sector an operational scheme for wildfire early warning purposes at national level based on the use of short and medium range numerical weather prediction model outputs has been in operation in Spain for several years. In some cases, specific activities in this field are also been carried out at regional level.

18 Wildfire early warning in Spain. In the case of the forestry sector an operational scheme for wildfire early warning purposes based on the use of short and medium range numerical weather prediction model outputs has been in operation in Spain for several years. This system allows the generation of predictions up to 3-days in advance of the numerical values of a meteorological wildfire risk index, the Canadian Fire Weather Index. The numerical model weather outputs are also used in combination with topography features, land use and land cover information to predict all the fire-weather components referring to the daily variation of water content for fuels with different response time changes in weather conditions: Fine Fuel Moisture Code FFMC, Duff Moisture Code DMC and Drought Code DC, as well as the initial rate of spread for propagation ((Initial Spread Index ISI), the quantity of fuel (Build-up Index BUI) and the expected intensity of the flame front. This information is essential to achieve an adequate organization of wildfire prevention activities in Spain and it is provided to all the Regional Forestry and Civil Protection Agencies.

19 Meteorological Forest Fire Danger Rating Index Forecasts (based on FWI) Combined Fire Risk Index + +

20 Drought monitoring Drought s Problem Affect to: Social-economic Sector. Ecosystem and natural environment. Agriculture Transport... Drought s Problem Phenomenon cyclical: Any geographical area Temporal distribution Water resource for human use 20 Several definitions and type Meteorological and Climatological Agricultural Hidrological Social-economical

21 Drought monitoring Meteorological/climatological Drought Weather conditions generating lack or less rainfall than normal conditions during long period (weeks, months, years). From meteorological point o view we need to study short drought (important to agriculture) or long drought (important for water management, ground water availibility, runoff and reservoir). 21

22 Model Process Drought Policy Maker? Quantify Monitoring Meteorological/Climatologic Database of climatic variables Climatologic Index Synoptic Climatology Data Mining Outer information not directly meteorological 22 Satellite Images (MODIS,NOAA, SMOS.) Different temporary/spatial scales Meteorological Hydrological Drought (SM..) Land Use, Vegetation maps.

23 Drought Monitoring

24

25 25 Climatology Conditions in May 1995 using SPI

26

27

28 Proyecto DESEMON DESEMON: Development of drought indices for sectorial applications: improving of drought monitoring and early warning in Spain Ministerio Economía y Competitividad: CGL C3-2-R Duration: Objectives of the project: Contributing to scientific knowledge of the drought in Spain Developing both research and management tools that would be useful to scientific community, policymakers and, in general, the whole society. Study of spatial-temporal variability of droughts, the analysis of atmospheric mechanisms that influence the drought in Spain, and the ability of seasonal forecasting models for predicting the drought evolution. Activities that will be carried out in the project: Develop an instrumental database by means of a rigorous quality control of meteorological variables, to get hold of high resolution climatic grids of climatic variables for the whole Spain Arrange and update the Spanish seasonal forecasting system using several models Validating drought indexes through these models.

29 Climate predictions models (seasonal scale) in agriculture in Spain No operational activities have been developed in Spain to date to make direct use of seasonal predictions outputs in agriculture. Nevertheless it can be mentioned that AEMET is participating in a research, in the framework of the EUPORIAS project, aimed at using seasonal forecasts outputs for decision making purposes regarding water reservoir management. This subject is closely connected with the agricultural decisions, because of the importance of the irrigated agriculture in Spain, being more than 70% of total water consumption in the country devoted to irrigation. MedCOF

30 In this project the outputs from Seasonal Climate Forecast Models will be used through a model called SIMRISK to generate multiple stream flow scenarios and multiple simulations of future management aimed at incorporating the risk evaluation into the decision making process: level of probability of not meeting a specific water demand as the irrigation needs probability level that the water stored at the reservoirs exceeds a certain threshold. probability of not meeting the minimum ecologic flow rate criteria.

31 Remote Sensing data Remote sensing data has been widely used in Spain in agriculture for many purposes as: better management of water for irrigation (identification and tracking of crops, recognition and tracking of irrigated areas, monitor and tracking of intra-parcel irregularities, monitor of abiotic stress), precision farming, monitoring of crop vegetative status, detection and assessment of pest and diseases damages and assessment of agrarian production. To do this medium and high resolution images of satellites Landsat (30 m), Spot (20 m) and Quickbird (2,8 m) have been used. In the framework of AgroASESOR Projec the high resolution images from DEIMOS satellite (20 m pixel) have been employed for determining different indices as: plant cover fraction, NDVI and yield potential.

32 Satellite images Support from images from DEIMOS (20 m pixel). Great coverage, windows of 3000 km 2 in from March till August. Development of different indices: Plan cover fraction NDVI Yield potential.

33 Remote Sensing data One of the recent advances in remote sensing applied to agriculture in Spain is the use of drones, mainly for crop production assessment. With the support of these UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) images of 6 cm pixel resolution and reduced coverage, 1-2 km of radius for flights, several indices are being produced as: Plant cover fraction, NDVI, yield potential, characterization of resistance patches and characterization in campaign for agrarian cooperatives.

34 Conclusion/Discussion Data collected, in situ and satellite facilities. Big data Standard information and georeferenced Climate models, seamless forecast systems uncertainty analysis and improved it Climate impact to Social Benefit Areas (users understanding). floods, drought.. Use of geographical information systems. Decision support tools (easy to use, web platform). Risk management depending directly to vulnerability, exposure, climate (threatened) and inverse way to resilience.

35 Thanks for your attention

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