THE 2016 ELECTION AND HEALTHCARE POLICY OUTLOOK

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "THE 2016 ELECTION AND HEALTHCARE POLICY OUTLOOK"

Transcription

1 THE 2016 ELECTION AND HEALTHCARE POLICY OUTLOOK

2 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: THE RESULTS Though Trump won in the Electoral College, Clinton now has a much wider margin of victory in the popular vote than Al Gore did in 2000 (By some estimates, Clinton has almost a 2 million vote lead, compared to Gore s lead of 546,398 votes) EV s for Obama, 206 for Romney EV s for Trump, 232 for Clinton Turnout was roughly the same as 2012, but was lower than projected % Turnout (the highest since 1996) % Turnout % Turnout Third Party votes, however, surpassed 2012 levels by 4.5 million votes (for a total of 6.9 million votes) The Electorate was younger, better educated and less white, however Clinton was not 1 able to transfer these demographic advantages into votes

3 DEMOGRAPHICS Young voters (18-29) maintained a 19 percent share of the electorate, but voted for Clinton in smaller margins than they did for Obama Latinos increased their share of the vote from 10 to 11 percent, but the myth that they would vote overwhelmingly for Clinton turned out to be false In 2012, Hispanics voted for Obama by a margin of 44 points, compared to Clinton s margin of 36 points In Florida, half of Cubans broke with the larger Hispanic voting bloc this year to support Trump Black voters share of the electorate declined slightly, and Clinton s margin also shrunk among these voters Obama won the black vote by 87 points in 2012 (93% to 6%), while Clinton s margin narrowed to 80 points (88% to 8%) 2

4 DEMOGRAPHICS CONTINUED Independents Clinton 42, Trump 48 White College Graduates Clinton 45, Trump 49 High School Education Clinton 45, Trump 51 Some College Clinton 43, Trump 52 3

5 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: WHITE VOTERS White voters without college degrees have overwhelming jumped the Democratic ship to join the GOP, while the gap between whites with and without college degrees is at its largest ever 35 points Trump won white voters at a near-identical rate to Romney in 2012 White non-hispanic voters chose Trump over Clinton by 21 points: 58% to 37% That same group chose Romney over Obama in 2012 by 20 points: 59% to 39% White voters without a college degree preferred Trump by a margin of 39% White voters with a college degree voted for Trump by a margin of 4% 4

6 THE BLUE WALL Democrats solid coalition of blue-collar white voters, who have served as the base of the Blue Wall, crumbled Trump won 3 states that went blue in the last 6 presidential elections Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Wisconsin: 52.8% Obama in 2012 (+6.9), 47.9% Trump in 2016 (+1) Pennsylvania: 52.0% Obama in 2012 (+5.7), 48.8% Trump (+1.2) Michigan: 54.2% Obama in 2012 (+9.5), 47.6% Trump (+0.3) Florida: 50.0% Obama in 2012 (+0.9), 49.1% Trump (+1.3) 5

7 WHY TRUMP WON Trump was the candidate of change in 2016 (much like Obama in 2008) - Change was the candidate quality that mattered most to voters (39%) and Trump won those voters by a margin of 69% He was favored on key issues Economy +4, Jobs +6, Defense +1, Terrorism, +4. ACA very unpopular - 58% of voters wanted it repealed while only 36% wanted it kept in place Unified his Party - 90% of Republicans voted for him 93% voted for Romney in 2012 Ran against the: Establishments Leaders of both parties Washington, DC: Drain the swamp Political Correctness Media Trust in the media is at its lowest point since records for have been kept. (14% for Republicans and 30% for Independents) 6

8 WHY CLINTON LOST: PART I Sanders framed her Being a woman Changing positions on trade policy (TPP) Paid speeches Arrogance/entitlement Failure to put adequate resources into key states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin 7

9 WHY CLINTON LOST: PART II Didn t hold the Obama Coalition together Underperformed in key demographic groups that were central to Obamas 2012 victory. Millennials 5%, African Americans 5%, Latinos 6%, Asian Americans 8% 30 years of political baggage and negative branding: Benghazi, s, Clinton Foundation Parties rarely win three consecutive terms in office. Since 1950, only Reagan has won a third term for his party. Third Party vote cost her in key states MI and WI 5.1% voted third party in Michigan 5.2% voted third party in Wisconsin Did not have a clear, positive economic and reform message. 8

10 THE POLLS Key Dates FBI announces no indictment: July 5 Republican Convention: July Democratic Convention: July First Debate: Sept. 26 Second Debate: Oct. 9 Third Debate: Oct. 19 Comey Letter to Congress: Oct. 28 9

11 THE MONEY Total amounts raised by candidates: $1.3 billion Total raised by super PACs supporting them: $594 million 10

12 THE 115 th CONGRESS: BY THE NUMBERS SENATE Democratic Independent Republican TBD 46 (+2 from the previous Congress) 2 51 (-3 from the previous Congress) 1* *The Louisiana election was sent into a runoff, to take place on December 10, The final seat will be decided then, although this will not affect the majority. HOUSE Democratic Republican TBD 194 (+6 from the previous Congress) 240 (-7 from the previous Congress) 1* *Two Louisiana districts were sent into a runoff, to take place on December 10, One of the runoffs is between two Republicans and will not affect the House composition; the other runoff is between a Democrat and Republican. 11

13 THE 115 th CONGRESS Must Pass Legislative Vehicles: December 9: Continuing Budget Resolution Spring 17: A new budget agreement March 17: An increase in the debt ceiling Fall 17: A package of expiring Medicare provisions and extension of Children s Health Insurance September 17: PDUFA VI First 100 Days: Regulatory Changes, ACA Repeal & Replace, Infrastructure, Tax Reform, Nominations (SCOTUS) 12

14 OUTLOOK FOR THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT When we win on November 8 th and elect a Republican Congress, we will be able to immediately repeal and replace Obamacare. - Donald Trump What does he mean by immediately? Is the ACA really getting repealed? What does the GOP replacement plan look like? What does it all mean for CAPG? 13

15 THE MOVE FROM VOLUME TO VALUE Our first goal is for 30% of all Medicare provider payments to be in alternative payment models that are tied to how well providers care for their patients, instead of how much care they provide and to do it by Our goal would then be to get to 50% by HHS Secretary Burwell What does the election mean for delivery system reform? What about MACRA and changing how we pay physicians Will the Innovation Center survive? Who will be in charge at HHS/CMS 14

16 QUESTIONS? 15

Senate majority within reach for Democrats Report on survey conducted in four Senate battleground states

Senate majority within reach for Democrats Report on survey conducted in four Senate battleground states Date: November 9, 2015 To: Friends of & WVWVAF From: Stan Greenberg, Page Gardner, Women s Voices, Women Vote Action Fund David Walker, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Senate majority within reach for Democrats

More information

Trump Leads Rubio in Florida- Even Head to Head

Trump Leads Rubio in Florida- Even Head to Head FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE February 25, 2016 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH

More information

The Latino Vote 2016: Swing States and Wild Cards

The Latino Vote 2016: Swing States and Wild Cards The Latino Vote 2016: Swing States and Wild Cards Mark Hugo Lopez Director of Hispanic Research About the Hispanic Trends Project Pew Hispanic Center established in 2001; rebranded in 2013 Funded by The

More information

ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA: TRUMP LEADS IN BOTH CLINTON LEADS IN AL, SANDERS IN OK

ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA: TRUMP LEADS IN BOTH CLINTON LEADS IN AL, SANDERS IN OK Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, February 29, 2016 Contact: PATRICK

More information

MARYLAND: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY 25

MARYLAND: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY 25 Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, 21, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Policy, Politics, and the Strangest Election Ever

Policy, Politics, and the Strangest Election Ever Policy, Politics, and the Strangest Election Ever Scott Eckel Schwab Legislative and Regulatory Affairs Congress: The Lay of the Land Republicans control both chambers of Congress but narrow Senate margin,

More information

Voters to Washington in 2010: Put Out the Fire! An analysis of the 2010 midterm elections

Voters to Washington in 2010: Put Out the Fire! An analysis of the 2010 midterm elections Voters to Washington in 2010: Put Out the Fire! An analysis of the 2010 midterm elections (Note: This analysis is based on a combination of the news media Exit Poll of 17,504 House voters, and a New Models

More information

The Electoral Process

The Electoral Process Barack and Michelle Obama at the Democratic National Convention in 2004 Narrowing the Field It s Election Time! Candidates for the larger political parties are chosen at party meetings called conventions.

More information

Statewide Survey of Louisiana Likely Voters on David Duke

Statewide Survey of Louisiana Likely Voters on David Duke Statewide Survey of Louisiana Likely Voters on David Duke The University of New Orleans Survey Research Center (SRC) sponsored an automated interactive voice response (IVR) telephone survey of likely Louisiana

More information

Presidential Nominations

Presidential Nominations SECTION 4 Presidential Nominations Delegates cheer on a speaker at the 2008 Democratic National Convention. Guiding Question Does the nominating system allow Americans to choose the best candidates for

More information

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS AND IMMIGRATION POLITICS IN TEXAS. February 26, 2014

CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS AND IMMIGRATION POLITICS IN TEXAS. February 26, 2014 CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS AND IMMIGRATION POLITICS IN TEXAS February 26, 2014 Hispanic influence in Texas Demographic trends Participation and party competition Immigration Politics The Texas Population Today

More information

FLORIDA LATINO VOTERS AND THE 2016 ELECTION

FLORIDA LATINO VOTERS AND THE 2016 ELECTION FLORIDA LATINO VOTERS AND THE 2016 ELECTION Sylvia Manzano, PhD Principal Latino Decisions April 20, 2016 Overview Latino vote will approach 13 million in 2016. Florida s 2.5 million eligible Latino voters

More information

Latino Voters in the 2012 Election

Latino Voters in the 2012 Election November 7, 2012 71%; 27% Mark Hugo Lopez, Associate Director Paul Taylor, Director FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: 1615 L St, N.W., Suite 700 Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 419-3600 Fax (202) 419-3608

More information

TEXAS: CRUZ, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES

TEXAS: CRUZ, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, 25, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

The Youth Vote in 2012 CIRCLE Staff May 10, 2013

The Youth Vote in 2012 CIRCLE Staff May 10, 2013 The Youth Vote in 2012 CIRCLE Staff May 10, 2013 In the 2012 elections, young voters (under age 30) chose Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 60%- 37%, a 23-point margin, according to the National Exit Polls.

More information

Clinton Leads Sanders by 34%

Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2016 Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Clinton Leads Sanders by 34% (Clinton 65% - Sanders 31%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Former Secretary

More information

Public Support for Raising the Minimum Wage

Public Support for Raising the Minimum Wage Public for Raising the Minimum Wage Findings from a Survey of 805 Likely 2012 General Election Voters Nationwide Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Alex Dunn Washington, DC Berkeley, CA New York, NY LakeResearch.com

More information

Battleground 2016: new game. June 30, 2016

Battleground 2016: new game. June 30, 2016 Battleground 2016: new game June 30, 2016 Methodology Battleground Survey of 2700 Likely 2016 Voters in 9 competitive presidential battleground states. This survey took place June 11-20. Respondents who

More information

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, July, 2016, 2016 Campaign: Strong Interest, Widespread Dissatisfaction NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JULY 07, 2016 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget Johnson,

More information

PRYOR REELECTION IN JEOPARDY

PRYOR REELECTION IN JEOPARDY FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Friday August 2, 2013 CONTACT: Fred Shumate fshumate@magellanbr.com PRYOR REELECTION IN JEOPARDY Only 37% of Likely Voters Believe Arkansas Senator Deserves Another Term Baton Rouge,

More information

America s Electoral Future

America s Electoral Future AP PHOTO/MARK LENNIHAN America s Electoral Future How Changing Demographics Could Impact Presidential Elections from 2016 to 2032 By William H. Frey, Ruy Teixeira, and Robert Griffin February 2016 W W

More information

2014 ASIAN AMERICAN ELECTION EVE POLL

2014 ASIAN AMERICAN ELECTION EVE POLL AAPI CIVIC ENGAGEMENT FUND 2014 ASIAN AMERICAN ELECTION EVE POLL Presentation of Results November 6, 2014 2014 Election Eve Poll 1150 AsianAm voters 3 state samples Oct 30th - Nov 3rd National ± 3.7% California

More information

Florida Poll Results Trump 47%, Clinton 42% (Others 3%, 8% undecided) Rubio re-elect: 38-39% (22% undecided)

Florida Poll Results Trump 47%, Clinton 42% (Others 3%, 8% undecided) Rubio re-elect: 38-39% (22% undecided) Florida Poll Results Trump 47%, Clinton 42% (Others 3%, 8% undecided) Rubio re-elect: 38-39% (22% undecided) POLLING METHODOLOGY Our philosophy about which population to use depends on the election, but

More information

Obama Gains Edge in Campaign s Final Days

Obama Gains Edge in Campaign s Final Days SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2012 Obama 50%-Romney 47% Obama Gains Edge in Campaign s Final Days FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Andrew Kohut President, Pew Research Center Carroll Doherty and Michael Dimock Associate

More information

LATINO VOTERS AND THE 2016 ELECTION

LATINO VOTERS AND THE 2016 ELECTION LATINO VOTERS AND THE 2016 ELECTION Sylvia Manzano, PhD Principal Latino Decisions April 20, 2016 Overview Latino vote will approach 12.5 million in 2016 What effect will positioning on immigration issues

More information

VIRGINIA: TRUMP, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES

VIRGINIA: TRUMP, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Thursday, 25, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll Baldwin Wallace University CRI HOLD FOR RELEASE 6:00 a.m., February 24, 2016

Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll Baldwin Wallace University CRI HOLD FOR RELEASE 6:00 a.m., February 24, 2016 Topline Report: Ohio Election Poll Baldwin Wallace University CRI HOLD FOR RELEASE 6:00 a.m., February 24, 2016 The Baldwin Wallace CRI study was conducted during the period of February 11-20, 2016 among

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, May 4 at 6:00 a.m.

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, May 4 at 6:00 a.m. Interviews with 1,001 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on April 28 May 1, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage

More information

America s Voice/LD 2016 3-State Battleground Survey, April 2016

America s Voice/LD 2016 3-State Battleground Survey, April 2016 1a. [SPLIT A] On the whole, what are the most important issues facing the [Hispanic/Latino] community that you think Congress and the President should address? Open ended, Pre-code to list, MAY SELECT

More information

United States TEA PARTY. Demographics

United States TEA PARTY. Demographics United States TEA PARTY Demographics April 2, 2010 Abstract: This Blog will illustrate the base demographics of the Tea Party Movement. It will discuss the following main points 1. Tea Party popularity

More information

Clinton Leads Sanders by 29%

Clinton Leads Sanders by 29% P R E S S R E L E A S E FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 8, Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Clinton Leads Sanders by 29% (Clinton 57% - Sanders 28%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Former Secretary of State

More information

America s Voice/LD 2016 3-State Battleground Survey, April 2016

America s Voice/LD 2016 3-State Battleground Survey, April 2016 1a. [SPLIT A] On the whole, what are the most important issues facing the [Hispanic/Latino] community that you think Congress and the President should address? Open ended, Pre-code to list, MAY SELECT

More information

Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey

Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey Date: April 1, 2016 To: Page Gardner, Women s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund From: Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz, Edging toward an earthquake Report on the WVWV March National Survey new poll on

More information

Hillary Clinton Closes the Large Lead in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Sanders has Held Since October

Hillary Clinton Closes the Large Lead in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Sanders has Held Since October February 6, 206 Hillary Clinton Closes the Large Lead in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Sanders has Held Since October By: R. Kelly Myers Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University

More information

CLINTON TOPS TRUMP IN CONNECTICUT RACE OF THE UNLOVED, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BLUMENTHAL LEADS UNKNOWN GOP CHALLENGERS 2-1

CLINTON TOPS TRUMP IN CONNECTICUT RACE OF THE UNLOVED, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BLUMENTHAL LEADS UNKNOWN GOP CHALLENGERS 2-1 Douglas Schwartz, PhD, Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5201 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: JUNE 7, 2016 CLINTON TOPS TRUMP IN

More information

OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE

OHIO: KASICH, TRUMP IN GOP SQUEAKER; CLINTON LEADS IN DEM RACE Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, 14, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

FLORIDA: TRUMP WIDENS LEAD OVER RUBIO

FLORIDA: TRUMP WIDENS LEAD OVER RUBIO Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, March 14, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

Trump leads GOP field, with Rubio and Cruz next; Clinton leads Sanders among Virginia Democrats

Trump leads GOP field, with Rubio and Cruz next; Clinton leads Sanders among Virginia Democrats Feb. 16, 2016 Trump leads GOP field, with Rubio and Cruz next; Clinton leads Sanders among Virginia Democrats Summary of Key Findings 1. Almost two-thirds of Virginia voters have an unfavorable view of

More information

The Senate Race between Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Challenger Maggie Hassan continues to show a tight race.

The Senate Race between Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic Challenger Maggie Hassan continues to show a tight race. May 30, 2016 Presumptive Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump is locked in a tight race with presumptive Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The Senate Race between

More information

How Republicans Plan to Rig the Electoral College and Steal the White House

How Republicans Plan to Rig the Electoral College and Steal the White House Grand Theft Election How Republicans Plan to Rig the Electoral College and Steal the White House Ian Millhiser January 23, 2013 President Barack Obama won a commanding victory in this November s elections,

More information

In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down

In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down February 12, 2015 In battleground Virginia, Clinton beating all Republicans in 2016 presidential matchups; GOP voters divided, with Bush up, Christie down Summary of Key Findings 1. Virginia voters like

More information

Clinton Leads Sanders by 28%

Clinton Leads Sanders by 28% FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 2, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Clinton Leads Sanders by 28% (Clinton 61% - Sanders 33%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- Former Secretary of

More information

2016 California GOP Presidential Primary Poll

2016 California GOP Presidential Primary Poll 2016 California GOP Presidential Primary Poll To test potential and probable presidential candidates for the June 7 th, 2016 California Republican Presidential Primary election, NSON Opinion Strategy,

More information

POLITICAL PARTICIPATION TOP LINE NATIONAL FINDINGS BEST AND WORST STATES ON WOMEN S POLITICAL PARTICIPATION

POLITICAL PARTICIPATION TOP LINE NATIONAL FINDINGS BEST AND WORST STATES ON WOMEN S POLITICAL PARTICIPATION POLITICAL PARTICIPATION TOP LINE NATIONAL FINDINGS KEY FINDINGS No state received higher than a B+ on IWPR s Political Participation Composite Index, which measures women s voter registration and turnout,

More information

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll. Indiana Questionnaire

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll. Indiana Questionnaire Residents: n=2568, MOE +/- 1.9% Registered Voters: n=2149, MOE +/-2.1% NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Indiana Questionnaire Potential Republican Electorate: n=1110, MOE +/- 2.9% Likely Republican Primary Voters:

More information

America s Voice/Latino Decisions 2016 Presidential Survey Toplines July 1, 2013

America s Voice/Latino Decisions 2016 Presidential Survey Toplines July 1, 2013 1. On the whole, what are the most important issues facing the [Hispanic/Latino] community that you think Congress and the President should address? [Open ended, may select one more than one] Create more

More information

Bernie Sanders has Re-Opened a Lead over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential Race in New Hampshire

Bernie Sanders has Re-Opened a Lead over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential Race in New Hampshire January 5, 6 Bernie Sanders has Re-Opened a Lead over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Presidential Race in New Hampshire By: R. Kelly Myers Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University 6.4.98

More information

NALEO Educational Fund/Noticias Telemundo/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracking Poll Week 1: September (N=511; MoE +/-4.

NALEO Educational Fund/Noticias Telemundo/Latino Decisions Weekly Tracking Poll Week 1: September (N=511; MoE +/-4. 1. Thinking ahead to the November 2016 election, what would you say the chances are that you will vote in the election for U.S. President, Congress and other state offices - are you almost certain to vote,

More information

MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT

MICHIGAN: TRUMP, CLINTON IN FRONT Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, 7, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

Trump Still Strong Kasich/Cruz Rise (Trump 42% - Kasich 19.6% - Cruz 19.3% - Rubio 9%)

Trump Still Strong Kasich/Cruz Rise (Trump 42% - Kasich 19.6% - Cruz 19.3% - Rubio 9%) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 6, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Still Strong Kasich/Cruz Rise (Trump 42% - Kasich 19.6% - Cruz 19.3% - Rubio 9%) EAST LANSING, Michigan

More information

Stop the HIT Coalition National Small Business Owner Survey Interview Schedule

Stop the HIT Coalition National Small Business Owner Survey Interview Schedule Stop the HIT Coalition National Small Business Owner Survey Interview Schedule Project: 15492 N=251 Small Business Owners; Margin of Error: +6.2% A. Do you own or operate a business? 100% Yes B. And is

More information

Opinion Poll. Minnesota Small Business Owners Support Reforming U.S. Elections. October 30, 2014

Opinion Poll. Minnesota Small Business Owners Support Reforming U.S. Elections. October 30, 2014 Opinion Poll Minnesota Small Business Owners Support Reforming U.S. Elections October 30, 2014 Small Business Majority 1101 14 th Street, NW, Suite 1001 Washington, DC 20005 (202) 828-8357 www.smallbusinessmajority.org

More information

Voters lean Republican, favor minimum wage increase, gun control, redistricting reform

Voters lean Republican, favor minimum wage increase, gun control, redistricting reform September 24, 2015 Voters lean Republican, favor minimum wage increase, gun control, redistricting reform Summary of Key Findings 1. Overall, Republicans have an advantage in the Nov. 3 election, but the

More information

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 31, 2016

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 31, 2016 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 31, 2016 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF

More information

The Electoral Process STEP BY STEP. the worksheet activity to the class. the answers with the class. (The PowerPoint works well for this.

The Electoral Process STEP BY STEP. the worksheet activity to the class. the answers with the class. (The PowerPoint works well for this. Teacher s Guide Time Needed: One class period Materials Needed: Student worksheets Projector Copy Instructions: Reading (2 pages; class set) Activity (3 pages; class set) The Electoral Process Learning

More information

Illinois: GOP Presidential Primary

Illinois: GOP Presidential Primary Illinois: GOP Presidential Primary Date of Poll: 02/24/16 Responses: 1,311 likely voters Margin of error: ±3% Choice for President Response Percentage Donald Trump 38.44% Ted Cruz 15.87% Marco Rubio 21.21%

More information

NATIONAL: NO TOP TIER IN 2016 GOP RACE

NATIONAL: NO TOP TIER IN 2016 GOP RACE Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, June 15, 2015 Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Republicans Get behind Trump, but Not All of His Policies

Republicans Get behind Trump, but Not All of His Policies Republicans Get behind Trump, but Not All of His Policies Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Karl Friedhoff, Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Craig Kafura, Research

More information

What Public Opinion Says About School Choice

What Public Opinion Says About School Choice What Public Opinion Says About School Choice An Analysis of Attitudes toward Educational Options in America For more than years, public polling has indicated strong support for school choice in America

More information

NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE APRIL 7, 2015 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT:

NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE APRIL 7, 2015 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE APRIL 7, 2015 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS REPORT: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Rachel Weisel, Communications Associate 202.419.4372

More information

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Tuesday, March 1 at 6:00 a.m.

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Tuesday, March 1 at 6:00 a.m. Interviews with 1,001 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on February 24-27, 2016. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage

More information

(212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: MAY

(212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: MAY Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) 535-6203 Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: MAY 10, 2016 CLINTON-TRUMP

More information

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, January, 2016, Republican Primary Voters: More Conservative than GOP General Election Voters

RECOMMENDED CITATION: Pew Research Center, January, 2016, Republican Primary Voters: More Conservative than GOP General Election Voters NUMBERS, FACTS AND TRENDS SHAPING THE WORLD FOR RELEASE JANUARY 28, 2016 FOR MEDIA OR OTHER INQUIRIES: Carroll Doherty, Director of Political Research Jocelyn Kiley, Associate Director, Research Bridget

More information

Re: Equal Pay Day for Unmarried Women 1

Re: Equal Pay Day for Unmarried Women 1 To: From: Interested Parties Page Gardner, The Celinda Lake, Re: Equal Pay Day for Unmarried 1 Date: April 14, 2015 This year on April 14 th, Equal Pay Day will mark just how far into 2015 a woman must

More information

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu

Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll* Trump Clear GOP Leader, as Bush

More information

Copyright 2016 April 28-May 1, Base Sample Interviews Capitol Weekly California Statewide Dem Primary 546 New Registrant Interviews

Copyright 2016 April 28-May 1, Base Sample Interviews Capitol Weekly California Statewide Dem Primary 546 New Registrant Interviews Copyright 2016 April 28-May 1, 2016 1617 Base Sample Interviews Capitol Weekly California Statewide Dem Primary 546 New Registrant Interviews This survey was conducted for Open California. All responses

More information

CLINTON OR CUOMO THUMP GOP IN 2016 NEW YORK PRES RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; ADOPTED DAUGHTER RUNS BETTER THAN NATIVE SON

CLINTON OR CUOMO THUMP GOP IN 2016 NEW YORK PRES RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; ADOPTED DAUGHTER RUNS BETTER THAN NATIVE SON Maurice Carroll, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 582-5334 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: AUGUST 21, 2014 CLINTON OR CUOMO

More information

Pennsylvania Close; Sanders Supporter Unity Would Make It Not Close

Pennsylvania Close; Sanders Supporter Unity Would Make It Not Close FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE June 8, 2016 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL information@publicpolicypolling.com, OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

November 2014 Election: Low Voter Turnout Persists, May Continue Through 2020

November 2014 Election: Low Voter Turnout Persists, May Continue Through 2020 November 2014 Election: Low Voter Turnout Persists, May Continue Through 2020 Executive Summary On the eve of Election Day, the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is now

More information

Trump Still on Top - Cruz Rises in Michigan (Trump 42% - Cruz 19% - Rubio 15% - Kasich 14%)

Trump Still on Top - Cruz Rises in Michigan (Trump 42% - Cruz 19% - Rubio 15% - Kasich 14%) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 3, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Still on Top - Cruz Rises in Michigan (Trump 42% - Cruz 19% - Rubio 15% - Kasich 14%) EAST LANSING,

More information

Obama s Education Reform Policies Are Working

Obama s Education Reform Policies Are Working To: Interested Parties From: Shavar Jeffries, National President of Democrats for Education Reform Date: October 13, 2015 Re: First Democratic Presidential Debate As Arne Duncan steps down after seven

More information

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida November 3, 2012 Presidential Election Questionnaire

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Florida November 3, 2012 Presidential Election Questionnaire Screener Are you 18 years of age or older? Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Florida? HH SELECTION LANDLINE FRAME ONLY GENDER GUESS NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

Social Security and the 2014 Midterm Elections

Social Security and the 2014 Midterm Elections 50 Virginia Policy Review Social Security and the 2014 Midterm Elections Jasmine Jefferson Introduction Election season is upon us and with a strong Republican majority in the United States House of Representatives

More information

SOUTH CAROLINA: TRUMP LEADS, CARSON 2 nd

SOUTH CAROLINA: TRUMP LEADS, CARSON 2 nd Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Tuesday, August 25, 2015 Contact: PATRICK MURRAY

More information

Statewide Poll Results Edwards 28%, Vitter 19%, Angelle 8%, Dardenne 7%, Others 5% (33% undecided)

Statewide Poll Results Edwards 28%, Vitter 19%, Angelle 8%, Dardenne 7%, Others 5% (33% undecided) Statewide Poll Results Edwards 8%, Vitter 19%, Angelle 8%, Dardenne 7%, Others 5% (33% undecided) POLLING METHODOLOGY Our philosophy about which population to use depends on the election, but we are generally

More information

How to Vote! A WORKBOOK BY STUDENTS FOR STUDENTS. California Edition

How to Vote! A WORKBOOK BY STUDENTS FOR STUDENTS. California Edition How to Vote! A WORKBOOK BY STUDENTS FOR STUDENTS California Edition CONTENTS This workbook was put together by adult reading students (also called learners ) to help other students learn more about voting.

More information

FOR RELEASE: MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10 AT 4 PM

FOR RELEASE: MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10 AT 4 PM Interviews with 1,022 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on September 7-9, 2012. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage

More information

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, December 23 at 4:00 p.m.

EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE: Wednesday, December 23 at 4:00 p.m. Interviews with 1,018 adult Americans conducted by telephone by ORC International on December 17-21, 2015. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage

More information

NATIONAL: TRUMP WIDENS NATIONAL LEAD

NATIONAL: TRUMP WIDENS NATIONAL LEAD Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, December 14, 2015 Contact: PATRICK

More information

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2010 SCORING GUIDELINES

AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2010 SCORING GUIDELINES AP UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS 2010 SCORING GUIDELINES Question 3 6 points Part (a): 1 point One point is earned for identifying one specific trend evident in the figure: Percentage of House

More information

TRUMP LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA AS CLINTON EDGES SANDERS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BOY NEXT DOOR KASICH RUNS BEST IN NOVEMBER MATCHUPS

TRUMP LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA AS CLINTON EDGES SANDERS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; BOY NEXT DOOR KASICH RUNS BEST IN NOVEMBER MATCHUPS Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: APRIL 6, 2016 TRUMP LEADS IN PENNSYLVANIA

More information

Voting and Political Demography in 1996

Voting and Political Demography in 1996 California Opinion Index A review of Voting and Political Demography in 1996 February 1997 Findings in Brief Approximately 10.3 million Californians voted in the November 1996 Presidential elections, down

More information

Key findings from a national survey of 800 registered voters conducted September 2015.

Key findings from a national survey of 800 registered voters conducted September 2015. Key findings from a national survey of 800 registered voters conducted September 2015. LORI WEIGEL JAY CAMPBELL Methodology National survey of 800 registered voters conducted on both landlines and cell

More information

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 1

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21751 - Page 1 In Colorado, 3 Weeks Until Votes are Counted, Republicans May Have Slight Advantage in Contests for US Senate and Governor: Both incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Udall and incumbent Democratic Governor

More information

WASHINGTON POLITICAL WATCH

WASHINGTON POLITICAL WATCH Mike Berman's WASHINGTON POLITICAL WATCH No. 137 November 22, 2014 THE 2014 ELECTION A summary Voter Turnout Ideological bent of the 2014 Electorate The Divide Between the Major Parties Composition of

More information

NATIONAL: TRUMP WIDENS LEAD

NATIONAL: TRUMP WIDENS LEAD Please attribute this information to: Monmouth University Poll West Long Branch, NJ 07764 www.monmouth.edu/polling Follow on Twitter: @MonmouthPoll Released: Monday, August 3, Contact: PATRICK MURRAY 732-979-6769

More information

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

THE FIELD POLL. By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field THE FIELD POLL THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD Field Research Corporation 601 California Street, Suite 210 San Francisco,

More information

Vote for candidate who supports reducing pollution Vote for candidate who opposes as bad for business Have no effect

Vote for candidate who supports reducing pollution Vote for candidate who opposes as bad for business Have no effect 1. Many people are busy and don t get a chance to vote in every election. Thinking ahead to the November 2014 election, what would you say the chances are that you will vote in the election for Congress,

More information

UNF Poll reveals Hillary Clinton holding on to her lead in the Democratic Primary race.

UNF Poll reveals Hillary Clinton holding on to her lead in the Democratic Primary race. February 29, 2016 Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Associate Director Department of Public Relations (904) 620-2192 UNF Poll reveals Hillary Clinton holding on to her lead in the Democratic Primary race.

More information

Voter Survey D.C. Democratic Primary for Mayor and Council Chairman August 2010

Voter Survey D.C. Democratic Primary for Mayor and Council Chairman August 2010 Voter Survey D.C. Democratic Primary for Mayor and Council Chairman August 2010 POLLING. FOCUS GROUPS. MARKET STUDIES. MEMBERSHIP SURVEYS. MESSAGE DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING. SURVEY INFORMATION AND METHODOLOGY

More information

MUHLENBERG COLLEGE /MORNING CALL. 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll

MUHLENBERG COLLEGE /MORNING CALL. 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll MUHLENBERG COLLEGE /MORNING CALL 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll RELEASE #20 October 16, 2008 FIELDING PERIOD October 11-15, 2008 SAMPLE 595 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania MARGIN OF ERROR - +/- 4.0% at

More information

Trump Continues Big Michigan Lead (Trump 39% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 14% - Kasich 12%)

Trump Continues Big Michigan Lead (Trump 39% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 14% - Kasich 12%) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 2, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Continues Big Michigan Lead (Trump 39% - Rubio 19% - Cruz 14% - Kasich 12%) EAST LANSING, Michigan

More information

Trump Still Strong Kasich in Second (Trump 41% - Kasich 23% - Cruz 18% - Rubio 8%)

Trump Still Strong Kasich in Second (Trump 41% - Kasich 23% - Cruz 18% - Rubio 8%) FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 7, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Trump Still Strong Kasich in Second (Trump 41% - Kasich 23% - Cruz 18% - Rubio 8%) EAST LANSING, Michigan

More information

Clinton Maintains Strong Lead in Michigan

Clinton Maintains Strong Lead in Michigan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: March 7, 2016 P R E S S R E L E A S E Contact: Steve Mitchell 248-891-2414 Clinton Maintains Strong Lead in Michigan (Clinton 61% - Sanders 34%) EAST LANSING, Michigan --- In a poll

More information

Sanders has the highest favorability rating among top candidates, while Trump has the

Sanders has the highest favorability rating among top candidates, while Trump has the Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: FEBRUARY 5, 2016 U.S. REPUBLICANS WANT

More information