Assessing the impact of real-world driving cycles, fuel economy and tailpipe exhaust emissions on eco-rating of passenger cars
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1 Assessing the impact of real-world driving cycles, fuel economy and tailpipe exhaust emissions on eco-rating of passenger cars Nikhil Rastogi Dr. H. Christopher Frey Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering North Carolina State University PEMS Conference and Workshop UCR/CE-CERT Riverside, CA March 17, 2016
2 Outline Objective ACEEE Green Score Field Measurements Scenarios: Baseline (ACEEE-reported Green Scores) Real-world cycles Real-world emissions Real-world fuel economy Sensitivity Analysis 2
3 Introduction Eco-rating : rating passenger cars based on environmental impact Examples: Green Score and US EPA Green Vehicle Guide (US), Ecoscore (Belgium), Green Car Rating (UK) Green Score developed by American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) 2 Green Score based on life cycle assessment (LCA): vehicle in-use fuel supply cycle vehicle manufacture, assembly and disposal Health and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) impacts are assessed 3
4 Motivation and Objective Green Score is based on: rated fuel economy tailpipe exhaust emission standards These data depend on dynamometer tests or dynamometer-based standards Real-world driving often differs from fuel and emissions dynamometer driving cycles Objective: Quantify sensitivity of the Green Score to driving cycles, real world fuel economy, and realworld exhaust emission rates 4
5 ACEEE Green Score 5
6 Standard Test Cycles Federal Test Procedure (FTP) Represents urban driving, in which a vehicle is started with the engine cold and driven in stop-and-go rush hour traffic Highway- Highway Fuel Economy Test (HWFET) Represents a mixture of rural and Interstate highway driving with a warmed-up engine, typical of longer trips in free-flowing traffic High Speed/Supplemental FTP (US06) Represents city and highway driving at higher speeds with more aggressive acceleration and braking Air Conditioning (SC03) Account for air conditioning use under hot outside conditions (95 F sun load) Cold Temperature (Cold FTP) Tests the effects of colder outside temperatures on cold-start driving in stop-andgo traffic 6
7 Key Inputs to Green Score: Fuel Economy 2007 and earlier model year: Fuel economy based on FTP and HWFET for city and highway, respectively 2008 and later, approach is based on FTP, HWFET, US06, SC03 and Cold FTP Derived approach based on FTP and HWFET only Green Score based on 43% city and 57% highway 7
8 Key Inputs to Green Score: Emissions FTP-based emission standards carbon monoxide (CO) non-methane organic gases (NMOG) nitrogen oxides (NO x ) particulate matter smaller than 10 microns (PM 10 ) 8
9 Vehicle In-use Estimation of Green Score Emissions as a result of vehicle operation CO, HC, NO x and PM 10 emitted at the level of standard (g/mile) Non-regulated pollutants such as CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and SO 2 are dependent on fuel consumption rate (g/gallon) Fuel-economy is used to convert g/gal emission rates to g/mile emission factors 9
10 Estimation of Green Score Fuel-Supply cycle Emissions resulting from production, transport and storage of fuel Emission rates (g/gal) Fuel-economy is used to convert g/gal emission rates to g/mi emission factors 10
11 Estimation of Green Score Vehicle manufacture, assembly and disposal Assumes pollutants emitted in proportion to curb weight Stratified by vehicle class e.g., car, pickup, SUV Total mass of pollutants (grams) divided by mean vehicle useful life (miles) to obtain emission factors (g/mi) 11
12 Health Impacts: Emission Impacts Product of emission factor and damage cost for each pollutant at each stage GHG Impacts: Product of emission factor, global warming potential and damage cost of each GHG at each stage 12
13 Environmental Damage Index Total environmental impact of a vehicle (g/mile): EDX = d pj e pj Where, p = index over pollutant species; j = index over stage; d pj = environmental damage cost in cents per gram of a pollutant p at stage j; e pj = quantity of emissions of pollutant p at stage j, averaged over the vehicle operational life, in grams/mile 13
14 Green Score EDX is mapped inversely from a [0, ] range to a [0,100] range using a Gamma function EDX 0 corresponds to a Green Score 100 Green Score = x e EDX z (1 + EDX/z) y Where, x = 100 y = 3 z = 8.19 /mi (units conversion) 14
15 Methods: Emission Measurements Portable Emissions Measurement System (PEMS) CO 2, CO, HC, NO x On-Board Diagnostic Data - RPM - Manifold Absolute Pressure - Intake Air Temperature - Mass Air Flow Rate - Fuel Flow Rate - Vehicle Speed Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver with Barometric Altimeter 15
16 Methods: Test Routes ART ART 3 1 FWY I FWY Research Triangle Park ART = Arterial FWY = Freeway km 3 North Raleigh C NCSU ART A ART 16
17 VSP Estimating Vehicle Fuel Use Based on Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) v Where 3 D a 1 gr gc v a = vehicle acceleration (m/s 2 ) A = vehicle frontal area (m 2 ) C D = aerodynamic drag coefficient (dimensionless) C R = rolling resistance coefficient (dimensionless, ~ ) g = acceleration of gravity (9.8 m/s 2 ) m r v VSP = vehicle mass (in metric tons) = road grade = vehicle speed (m/s) = Vehicle Specific Power (kw/ton) ε = factor accounting for rotational masses (~ 0.1) ρ = ambient air density (1.207 kg/m 3 at 20 ºC) R 1 2 C A m
18 Vehicle Specific Power Modes Deceleration or Downhill Idle Cruising, Acceleration, or Uphill VSP mode Definition (kw/ton) 1 VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP < VSP 18
19 Methods: Cycle Average Fuel-use and Emission Rates Mass (in grams) of fuel consumed or pollutant emitted over a driving cycle Where, E p,v,dc = 14 i=1 t m ER p,v,dc,m E p,v,dc = cycle-based mass of specie p (grams) for vehicle V for a driving cycle DC; t m = average number of seconds of the driving cycle in each VSP mode m; ER p,v,dc,m = average mass rate (grams/second) for of specie p, vehicle V, driving cycle DC, and VSP mode m. 19
20 Methods: Cycle Average Fuel-use and Emission Rates E CAR,p,V,DC = E p,v,dc D DC Where, E CAR,p,V,DC = cycle average rate of species p from a vehicle V for a driving cycle DC (grams/mile); E p,v,dc = cycle-based mass of species p (grams) for vehicle V for a driving cycle DC; D DC = distance (miles) of applicable driving cycle DC. 20
21 FTP Driving Cycle 21
22 Comparison of a Real-World Cycle vs. FTP 22
23 Highway Fuel Economy Test (HWFET) Cycle 23
24 Comparison of a Real-World Cycle vs. HWFET 24
25 Methods: Vehicle Sample Vehicles (84): 13 light duty pickup trucks 66 passenger cars 5 hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) Model years: 2004 to 2014 Engine size: 1.3 L to 5.4 L Curb weight: 2200 lbs. to 5900 lbs. Age: 0 years to 10 years Mileage: 600 miles to 230,000 miles 25
26 Comparison of EPA and Real-World Cycle Average Data NOx Emission Rate (g/mile) HC Emission Rate (g/mile) CO Emission Rate (g/mile) Fuel Economy (mpg) Rated/ Standard Real-World The real-world database includes 56 vehicles compliant to Federal Tier 2 Bin 5 standards, measured by North Carolina State University (NCSU) Real world rates have been weighted to standard test cycles 26
27 Scenarios 27
28 Results: Cycle Average Fuel Economy 28
29 Results: Cycle Average Fuel Economy 29
30 Results: Cycle Average Fuel Economy 30
31 Results: Cycle Average Fuel Economy 31
32 Results: Cycle Average CO Emission Rate 32
33 Results: Cycle Average CO Emission Rate 33
34 Results: Cycle Average CO Emission Rate 34
35 Results: Cycle Average CO Emission Rate 35
36 Results: Cycle Average HC Emission Rate 36
37 Results: Cycle Average HC Emission Rate 37
38 Results: Cycle Average HC Emission Rate 38
39 Results: Cycle Average HC Emission Rate 39
40 Results: Cycle Average NO x Emission Rate 40
41 Results: Cycle Average NO x Emission Rate 41
42 Results: Cycle Average NO x Emission Rate 42
43 Results: Cycle Average NO x Emission Rate 43
44 Scenarios 8, 9, 10: Fuel Economy 44
45 Green Score Variation with Fuel Economy 45
46 Green Score Variation with Fuel Economy VSP Modes weighted by FTP/HFET 46
47 Green Score Variation with Fuel Economy VSP Modes weighted by Route 1 (Freeway) 47
48 Green Score Variation with Fuel Economy VSP Modes weighted by Route A (urban) 48
49 Scenarios 5, 6, 7: Emissions 49
50 Effect of Exhaust Emissions on Green Score 50
51 Effect of Exhaust Emissions on Green Score VSP Modes weighted by FTP 51
52 Effect of Exhaust Emissions on Green Score VSP Modes weighted by Route 1 (freeway) 52
53 Effect of Exhaust Emissions on Green Score VSP Modes weighted by Route A (urban) 53
54 Scenarios 8, 9, 10: Fuel Economy 54
55 Effect of Fuel Economy on Green Score 55
56 Effect of Fuel Economy on Green Score VSP Modes weighted by FTP 56
57 Effect of Fuel Economy on Green Score VSP Modes weighted by Route 1 (freeway) 57
58 Effect of Fuel Economy on Green Score VSP Modes weighted by Route A (urban) 58
59 The average Green Score within each scenario and their correlation with scenario 1 Scenario Correlation with Scenario 1 Error bars indicate ± one standard deviation
60 Rankings of Top 10 Vehicles Vehicle Scenario Base Real-world Cycles Emissions Fuel-Economy Toyota Prius Honda Civic Hy Honda Insight Toyota Yaris Fiat Subaru Outback Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Toyota Corolla Honda Civic Note: Some of the vehicles moved out of the top 10 in some scenarios. Conversely, some vehicles not listed in the top 10 of Scenario 1 entered the top 10 in other scenarios. The rankings of both of these categories of vehicles are not shown. 60
61 Contribution of each stage of Life Cycle Assessment in the Green Score rating system to the total Green Score Data based on Scenario 2 61
62 Findings Regarding Green Score Sensitive to driving cycles Sensitive to fuel economy Not sensitive to variations in real-world exhaust emission rates 62
63 Conclusions Robust to differences between real-world emissions and standards (for low emitting vehicles) Rated fuel economy is not an accurate representation of real-world fuel economy Real-world versus rated fuel economy can change the Green Score by ± 5 63
64 Discussion Is the ACEEE Green Score the right way to rate environmental impact of vehicle? Are in-use emissions more important than implied by their contribution to the Green Score? What s not in the Green Score? (a long list of other pollutants and impacts) 64
65 References 1. Batista, T.; Freire, F.; Silva, C., Vehicle environmental rating methodologies: Overview and application to light-duty vehicles. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2015, 45, Vaidyanathan, S.; Langer, T. Rating the Environmental Impacts of Motor Vehicles: ACEEE s Green Book Methodology; Frey, H. C.; Unal, A.; Chen, J.; Li, S.; C, X. Methodology for Developing Modal Emission Rates for EPA s Multi-Scale Motor Vehicle and Equipment Emission Estimation System; EPA420-R ; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Ann Arbor, MI,
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