Fuel Consumption, Operational Attributes and Potential Markets for Plug-in Hybrid Technologies

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1 Fuel Consumption, Operational Attributes and Potential Markets for Plug-in Hybrid Technologies Presented at the Climate Policy Initiative Meeting Center for Clean Air Policy Oct. 5, 2006 Washington DC Danilo J. Santini Section Leader, Technology Analysis Center for Transportation Research Sponsor: Office of Freedom Car and Vehicle Technologies U.S. Department of Energy E. Wall, Program Manager, Office of Freedom Car and Vehicle Technologies T. Duong, Team Leader, Vehicle Systems Technologies

2 Many Questions and Technology Options Were Not Previously Examined Items not addressed in 2001 studies by EPRI and Argonne Li-ion batteries Varying electric operations capabilities top speed, acceleration rate Effects of highly variable, often wide SOC swings on battery power/life Multiple HEV powertrain configurations In-use vs. certification cycle fuel economy Charge depletion w/o EV only operation ( blended mode ) Incremental cost/benefit evaluations Towing requirement effects Isolation of HEV vs. PHEV incremental benefit/cost Urban vs. non-urban & morning vs. other emissions Detailed comparison of trip characteristics to potential PHEV capabilities 2

3 Oil Savings: Each PHEV (Full HEV) Sharply Reduces Oil Use Even If No Electricity is Used, Far More if Electricity is Used 3

4 Question: Is Potential for Replacing Gasoline VMT With Electric VMT ~ 12% if a PHEV20, ~ 50% if a PHEV60? 100% 90% % of Sampled Vehicle VMT 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Distribution of VMT by Vehicles in the 2001 NHTS Travel Day File 0% Daily Travel (Miles/Vehicle) Estimate of Daily VMT Pattern From NHTS 2001: 11.5% of National VMT by Those Traveling <=20 Miles; 48.2% for <=60 Miles 4

5 Reality: Potential is Greater. Regardless of Daily Miles, PHEVs Can Travel Initial Miles Via Grid Electricity PHEV TYPE Daily Travel Range of Vehicle VMT Share in NHTS 2001 PHEV 10 Max % VMT by Electricity PHEV 20 Max % VMT by Electricity PHEV 60 Max % VMT by Electricity Up to 10 Miles 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Miles 8.1% 5.3% 8.1% 8.1% Miles 36.8% 10.1% 20.2% 36.8% Over 60 Miles 51.8% 4.5% 8.9% 26.7% Sum 100.0% 23.2%(19.9%) 40.6%(29.1%) 74.9%(26.7%) Note: the value in ( ) in the sum row is savings by those that usually exceed all electric range capability. Key assumptions: one charge per day (night?); 100% market penetration of the specified PHEV technology; all electric drive until battery depletion (not blended charge depletion). Blended charge depletion requires more miles to use a given amount of grid kwh 5

6 Designing PHEVs for ZEV Range EPRI and Argonne EVS Charge Depleting (CD) Charge Sustaining (CS) SOC (%) Distance 6

7 Amount of Battery Energy Needed is Estimated to Go Up Linearly With ZEV Range Beginning of Life Useable Battery Energy (w-h) Note: This is usable w-h at 90% to 30% SOC. Rated kwh would be 67% higher. Note: energy requirement determined by needs of UDDS Low Case High Case End of Life EV Range (miles) Battery energy capacity requirements as a function of ZEV range Source: Sharer et al: Vehicle Simulation Results for Plug-in HEV Battery Requirements, EVS-22, Oct ,

8 As Range of PHEVs Rises, the Needed Battery Power to Energy Ratio Declines. (This reduced $/kwh costs in EPRI study) sec 0.20 SOC) to (Beginning of Life Total Energy) Ratio W/Wh Power/Energy α 1/Range Note: power requirement determined by needs of UDDS All Electric Range Source: Sharer et al: Vehicle Simulation Results for Plug-in HEV Battery Requirements, EVS-22, Oct ,

9 With a Less Aggressive Target All Electric Range Capability and Lighter Battery Packs, Argonne Estimates A Lower Needed Ratio of Power to Energy than did EPRI in 01 Mid-size HEV Type Sources: Sharer et al: Vehicle Simulation Results for Plug-in HEV Battery Requirements, EVS-22, Oct , 2006 Graham et al; Comparing the Benefits and Impacts of Hybrid Electric Vehicle Options, EPRI ,

10 EPRI Estimates for NiMH Batteries Have Costs/kWh Dropping for More ZEV Range; Low Incremental $/kwh Costs Note: For PHEVs, no costs were estimated for glider redesign to accommodate pack. 10

11 Those With Short Commutes in the EPRI 2001 Survey Had Most Interest in a PHEV20 Delta of Share, PHEV20 - HEV0. 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% 0 to 5 mi commute 5 to 15 mi commute > 15 mi commute Low Base High Cost of Vehicle 11

12 As Powertrain (Battery!) Costs Drop, EPRI Predicted Share of All Urban HEVs Rises; For Long Commutes, Low Cost Leads to Purchase of More ZEV Range 60% Share of Market 50% 40% 30% 20% HEV0 HEV20 HEV60 10% 0% Low Base High Cost of Vehicle > 15 mile commute case 12

13 Thinking the Problem Through; Illustration 1: Measures of Effectiveness per Unit of Battery Used Percent of National Potential Created Per Estimated kwh of Battery Pack Maximum National Technical Potential From the Sum Row on Slide 5. Note: This is illustrative, not definitive. Li-ion pack costs are assumed to be same per kwh as in EPRI 1.0. kwh of packs from recent Argonne simulations. Potential shares from Table presented earlier. The primary point is diminishing marginal returns to adding battery to PHEVs, at least from 20 to 60 mi. ZEV range 13

14 Illustration 2: Considering EPRI HEV Type Market Share (not potential) Estimates, Which PHEV Will Save Most Oil? Note: If the battery must be replaced in the PHEV20 and not the PHEV60, the PHEV60 is best Is this the type of PHEV that results in a minimum? Or is the low point elsewhere? 0% HEV; 100% CV 35% HEV 65% CV 34% PHEV20; 66% CV 17% PHEV60; 83% CV Source of market share estimates: EPRI , 2001 (base case vehicle costs) Mid-size car HEV powertrain paired against the conventional (no other HEV competitor) Does not use the same market share estimates as for slide 13. Here cost of the vehicle marketability has an effect on percent of the market that can be served 14

15 First Field Tests of a Prius-Based PHEV on Blended Mode (ZEV Capability Limited) Imply Considerable Oil Reduction Note: This PHEV may retain the engine start and warm-up feature of the Prius Sacramento Municipal Utility District Summer Field Test Results (AC on): CS Energy Prius PHEV vs. Prius Data source: D. MacCurdy; PHEV Prius Test Program by Sacramento Municipal Utility District, presentation CARB ZEV Symposium, Sept ,

16 Initial Charging Infrastructure Plug-in hybrids require relatively low power charging Wide availability of infrastructure Initial focus on private chargers Array of options 120 VAC, 15 amp (~1.4 kw) 120 VAC, 20 amp (~2.0 kw) 208/240 VAC, 30 amp (~6 kw) 120 VAC strongly preferred due to cost, availability PHEV 20 Vehicle Compact Sedan Pack Size 5.1 kwh Charger Circuit 120 VAC / 15 A Charging Time 20% SOC hrs Mid-size Sedan 5.9 kwh 120 VAC / 15 A hrs Mid-size SUV 7.7 kwh 120 VAC / 15 A hrs Full-size SUV 9.3 kwh 120 VAC / 15 A hrs kw power, 1 or 2 hours conditioning 16

17 More than 30% of Present Households Park their Vehicles in a Garage or Carport Available Parking Facilities and Actual Parking (of the most used vehicle) for People in Detached Residences (59% of all U.S. households live in detached residences) 80 Percent of Residences Attached Garage Detached Garage Carport No Garage or Carport Driveway Street Other Available Parking Actual Parking 17

18 Even With No Infrastructure Investment (on Board Vehicle Charger), PHEV20s in Garages and Carports Charge Overnight 8 7 PG&E Off Peak Period 6 Hours to Charge $0 2 1 $200 $1,000 0 Compact Car Mid-Size Car Mid-Size SUV Full-Size SUV Note: These estimates will be reexamined. EPRI Estimate of Infrastructure Cost vs. Hours to Charge 18

19 Source: S. Thesen, Electrical Service Options for Residential Customer EV and PHEV Users, 9/26/06, CARB ZEV Symposium 19

20 A CA Utilities Survey Shows $/kwh of Off- and On-Peak Rates Source: S. Thesen, Electrical Service Options for Residential Customer EV and PHEV Users, 9/26/06, CARB ZEV Symposium Note: A national study of rate structures is desirable. CA may be atypical. 20

21 U.S. Average Electric Rates Imply Considerable Per Mile Savings for PHEV20 Electricity Use at Present Gasoline Prices $0.150 $0.125 On-Road Fuel Costs Per Mile - Mid-Size Vehicles on Gasoline or Electricity, City Driving CV = 23 mpg, HEV = 40 mpg, PHEV ZEV = 0.32 kwh/mi Dollars per Mile $0.100 $0.075 $0.050 $0.025 $0.000 Conventional Powertrain On-peak price range U.S. average price, 2005 Off-peak price range $3.25 $2.25 $1.25 $3.25 $2.25 $ Dollars per gallon Camry HEV Powertrain PHEV Powertrain in ZEV mode Residential Cents per kwh 21

22 On Average, Hours per Vehicle Per Day are Relatively Constant Across Population Densities 1.4 Detached Single All Other 1.2 Hours/Vehicle/Day Includes records with unknown population density 0.0 <=1,000 1,001-4,000 4,001-10,000 10,001-25,000 All Pop Classes Population per Sq Mile (at Tract Level) 22

23 Vehicle Speed (1) Increases As Population Density Decreases (2) Is Higher Nationally For Detached Units 35 Detached Single All Other 30 Avg Vehicle Speed Includes records with unknown population density <=1,000 1,001-4,000 4,001-10,000 10,001-25,000 All Pop Classes Population per Sq Mile (at Tract Level) 23

24 For the CSEnergy Type of PHEV to Save Most Gasoline vs. a Prius, It Should be Used Where Average Driving Speeds are Higher Suburbia, Uncongested Cities, and Rural America! Estimate of fuel saved by EnergyCS Prius vs. Prius, Standardized on Miles vs. Hours of Driving, by Driving Pattern Data source: D. MacCurdy; PHEV Prius Test Program by Sacramento Municipal Utility District, presentation CARB ZEV Symposium, Sept ,

25 Summary Both charge-sustaining (current) HEVs and charge-depleting (plug-in) HEVs reduce petroleum. Plug-in HEVs could cut oil use even more than full HEVs. Substantial travel, in terms of miles driven, can be transferred to electricity through plug-in HEVs As plug-in HEV s ZEV range increases, power to energy ratio for the battery pack declines, and battery costs should not rise linearly with additional kwh. Incremental battery cost per kwh should be carefully investigated. Charging PHEVs initially at low voltage on available residential circuits can keep initial charger and grid modification costs low. Perhaps only summer peak charging of PHEVs in most U.S. utilities would increase PHEV energy cost per mile compared to HEV mode. Thus, if a fleet of PHEVs enters the market, even low gasoline prices would not make PHEV operation on gasoline cheaper than on off peak electricity. Therefore, promised GHG and oil use benefits over and above the HEV would likely be secure. For an initial PHEV Prius, it has been estimated that the best market for oil use reduction is suburbia, uncongested cities, and rural areas. The technology is very complex, as are possible combinations and permutations with the grid. Designs and results can vary with priorities. 25

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